Évaluation des règles d'exploitation de systèmes de réservoirs

1991 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 214-224
Author(s):  
Alejandro Guerrero Acosta ◽  
Guy Leclerc ◽  
Michel Tremblay
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Simulation ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Water Reservoir ◽  
System Management ◽  
Reservoir System ◽  
Release Policy ◽  
System Variables ◽  
Method Of Evaluation ◽  
Selection Of

During the operating phase, the evaluation of the risks of failure generates additionnal information that is essential for water reservoir system management. This information throws light on the selection of a release policy for the mid-range operating horizon and helps to determine, at the beginning of each period of the short-range horizon, if the risks of failure resulting from the application of the current release policy remain acceptable. A method of evaluation of the risks of failure of a reservoir system, variables that are not explicitly accounted for in the determination of the release policy for the mid-range horizon, is described. The evaluation method uses a stochastic simulation model to reproduce the evolution of the system operated according to the current release policy. It estimates the risk of the various types of failure for a known state of the system at the beginning of a decision period and those that the system may reach at the beginning of the other periods of the evaluation horizon. It also computes the statistics of the various types of failure encountered and of the net benefits. The evaluation method is applied to a system of one reservoir and one powerhouse. Key words: reservoirs, failure, stochastic simulation, risk evaluation, release policy.

Assessment of Evaluation Methods for Prediction and Classifications of Consumer Risk in the Credit Industry

2011 ◽  
pp. 266-284
Author(s):  
Satish Nargundkar ◽  
Jennifer Lewis Priestley
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Network Modeling ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Modeling Technique ◽  
Neural Network Modeling ◽  
Linear Discriminant ◽  
Logistic Analysis ◽  
Perceived Performance ◽  
Method Of Evaluation

In this chapter, we examine and compare the most prevalent modeling techniques in the credit industry, Linear Discriminant Analysis, Logistic Analysis and the emerging technique of Neural Network modeling. K-S Tests and Classification Rates are typically used in the industry to measure the success in predictive classification. We examine those two methods and a third, ROC Curves, to determine if the method of evaluation has an influence on the perceived performance of the modeling technique. We found that each modeling technique has its own strengths, and a determination of the “best” depends upon the evaluation method utilized and the costs associated with misclassification.

Methods of risk assessment in forecasting the consequences of accidents at pipeline transport facilities

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 663-673
Author(s):  
Vladislav N. Slepnev ◽  
◽  
Alexander F. Maksimenko ◽  
Elena V. Glebova ◽  
Alla Т. Volokhina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Assessment Procedure ◽  
Expert Evaluation ◽  
Main Pipeline ◽  
Pipeline Transport ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Distribution Of Resources ◽  
Expert Evaluation Method

The choice of risk assessment procedure is one of the essential stages of efficient structuring of processes on prevention, localization and elimination of the consequences of accidents at main pipeline transport facilities. The authors analyzed themed publications and regulatory documents, governing procedures of risk assessment and forecasting of the consequences of possible accidents, and defined main problems in this area. Procedure for the risk assessment of accidents at main pipeline facilities was developed, the basis of which is the expert evaluation method. The procedure includes the determination of the main criteria for the assessment the probability of accident initiation and development and the evaluation of the severity of its consequences, an expert evaluation of criteria significance, their classification, and creation of a rating for hazardous pipeline sections. The application of the procedure application allows to specify the list of facilities that require high priority forecasting of accidents consequences, thus to optimize the distribution of resources and the overall increase of efficiency in planning while defining forces and special technical devices, necessary for containment and rectification of emergencies. Expert evaluation method application allows considering the specifics of certain enterprises, their technical and technological peculiarities, thereby increasing forecasting accuracy.

DETERMINING THE DESALINATION UNIT COMPOSITION FOR COSTAL AREAS AND SMALL ISLANDS USE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Imam Setiadi ◽  
Dinda Rita K. Hartaja
Keyword(s):  
Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Pairwise Comparison ◽  
Small Islands ◽  
Ahp Method ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Comparison Research ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Selection Of

Selection of the appropriate composition desalination units can be done with a variety of method approaches, one of the method is the Analytic Hierarchy Process. In determining the desalination unit with AHP method to consider is setting a goal, an alternative criteria and pairwise comparison. Research for the determination of the exact composition of the desalination unit in order to achieve sustainable drinking water suppy in coastal areas and small islands has been conducted. The results of the study are as follows, the energy demand of 50.83%, operator costs of 26.64%, maintenance costs of 14.13% and chemical requirement 8.4%. For an alternative composition desalination unit of RO 10 m3 / day is the best alternative composition with value of 59.61%, the composition of the next alternative is RO 20 m3/ day of 30.40% and the last alternative of the desalination unit composition is RO 120 m3/ day of 09.99%.Key words : Desalination, Mukti Stage Flash Composition, AHP

Optimization of the selection of analysis methods for the determination of naturally occurring radionuclides

Kerntechnik ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 73 (3) ◽  
pp. 118-121
Author(s):  
T. Heinrich ◽  
L. Funke ◽  
M. Köhler ◽  
U.-K. Schkade ◽  
F. Ullrich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Naturally Occurring ◽  
Analysis Methods ◽  
Naturally Occurring Radionuclides ◽  
Selection Of

Determination of the minimum number of technological bases of a part

2020 ◽  
pp. 73-75
Author(s):  
B.M. Bazrov ◽  
T.M. Gaynutdinov
Keyword(s):  
Cost Price ◽  
Labor Input ◽  
Part Surface ◽  
Technological Base ◽  
Size Accuracy ◽  
Minimum Number ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Input Cost ◽  
Selection Of

The selection of technological bases is considered before the choice of the type of billet and the development of the route of the technological process. A technique is proposed for selecting the minimum number of sets of technological bases according to the criterion of equality in the cost price of manufacturing the part according to the principle of unity and combination of bases at this stage. Keywords: part, surface, coordinating size, accuracy, design and technological base, labor input, cost price. [email protected]

Is Hydraulics Over-Used or Under-Used in Storm Drainage?

1994 ◽  
Vol 29 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 53-61
Author(s):  
Ben Chie Yen
Keyword(s):  
Unsteady Flow ◽  
Computational Time ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Flow Routing ◽  
Kinematic Wave Equation ◽  
Storm Drainage ◽  
Saint Venant Equations ◽  
Unsteady Flow Routing ◽  
Selection Of

Urban drainage models utilize hydraulics of different levels. Developing or selecting a model appropriate to a particular project is not an easy task. Not knowing the hydraulic principles and numerical techniques used in an existing model, users often misuse and abuse the model. Hydraulically, the use of the Saint-Venant equations is not always necessary. In many cases the kinematic wave equation is inadequate because of the backwater effect, whereas in designing sewers, often Manning's formula is adequate. The flow travel time provides a guide in selecting the computational time step At, which in turn, together with flow unsteadiness, helps in the selection of steady or unsteady flow routing. Often the noninertia model is the appropriate model for unsteady flow routing, whereas delivery curves are very useful for stepwise steady nonuniform flow routing and for determination of channel capacity.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document