Prediction of Business Failure with Fuzzy Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (Suppl. 1) ◽  
pp. 21-38
Author(s):  
Antonio Terceño ◽  
Hernán Vigier ◽  
Valeria Scherger
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Reference Model ◽  
Fuzzy Theory ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Financial Knowledge ◽  
Business Failure ◽  
Financial Situation ◽  
Owa Operators ◽  
Fuzzy Models ◽  
Knowledge Based

This paper extends the theory of fuzzy diseases predictions in order to detect the causes of business failure. This extension is justified through the advantages of the reference model and its originality. Moreover, the fuzzy model is completed by this proposal and some parts of it have been published in isolated articles. For this purpose, the fuzzy theory is combined with the OWA operators to identify the factors that generate problems in firms. Also, a goodness index to validate its functionality and prediction capacity is introduced. The model estimates a matrix of economic- financial knowledge based on matrices of causes and symptoms. Knowing the symptoms makes it possible to estimate the causes, and managing them properly, allows monitoring and improving the company’s financial situation and forecasting its future. Also with this extension, the model can be useful to develop suitable computer systems for monitoring companies’ problems, warning of failures and facilitating decision-making.

scholarly journals Fuzzy model of the computer integrated decision support and management system in mineral processing

2008 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 253-259 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Miljanovic ◽  
Slobodan Vujic
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Mineral Processing ◽  
Original Model ◽  
Integrated Systems ◽  
Management Support ◽  
Mineral Industry ◽  
Fuzzy Models ◽  
The Subject

During the research on the subject of computer integrated systems for decision making and management support in mineral processing based on fuzzy logic, realized at the Department of Applied Computing and System Engineering of the Faculty of Mining and Geology, University of Belgrade, for the needs of doctoral thesis of the first author, and wider demands of the mineral industry, the incompleteness of the developed and contemporary computer integrated systems fuzzy models was noticed. The paper presents an original model with the seven staged hierarchical monitoring-management structure, in which the shortcomings of the models utilized today were eliminated.

scholarly journals Effects of actual and perceived financial literacy skills on financial well-being at retirement

2021 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 5-16
Author(s):  
Zsofia Voros ◽  
Zoltan Szabo ◽  
Zoltán Schepp ◽  
Daniel Kehl ◽  
Oliver Bela Kovacs
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Elderly People ◽  
Financial Literacy ◽  
Elderly Population ◽  
Well Being ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Literacy Skills ◽  
Financial Knowledge ◽  
Subjective Well Being ◽  
Financial Situation

THE AIMS OF THE PAPER Studies have not explained fully how financial literacy, decision making skills and the diverse forms of financial literacy overconfidence interact with each other to explain households’ actual and perceived financial well-being at retirement. This study aims to map the interactions among these constructs within the elderly population. METHODOLOGY In the framework of a larger assessment on subjective well-being and its antecedents at retirement, three hundred retired people between the age of 65 and 85 filled out a questionnaire in their home in Hungary in March 2019. MOST IMPORTANT RESULTS Elderly people are overconfident in their financial literacy skills both on absolut and relative levels. Percieved financial literacy is a better predictor of financial situation than actual financial literacy. However, financial literacy overconficence relative to others harms elderly people’s financial situation. Subjective financial well-being is mainly driven by the actual financial situation. Decision making skills play an important role in the calibration of financial literacy skills and have an additional direct effect on the subjective level of financial well-being. Our outcomes reinforce that it is indeed worth promoting programs helping elderly people acquiring domain-specific financial knowledge. These programs may lead to better financial situation and higher self-efficacy. Moreover, our findings imply that it would be worthwhile for programs to concentrate on the calibration of financial knowledge vis-á-vis others. RECOMMENDATIONS To complement the mainstream literature, the study examines the forms of overconfidence and their effects on financial well-being separately and concentrates on the elderly population. Acknowledgements: The project was financed by the European Social Fund: Comprehensive Development for Implementing Smart Specialization Strategies at the University of Pecs (EFOP-3.6.1.- 16-2016-00004). Declarations of interest: none.

scholarly journals A Novel Ensemble Neuro-Fuzzy Model for Financial Time Series Forecasting

Data ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vlasenko ◽  
Vlasenko ◽  
Vynokurova ◽  
Bodyanskiy ◽  
Peleshko
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Financial Data ◽  
Financial Time ◽  
Fuzzy Models ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy

Neuro-fuzzy models have a proven record of successful application in finance. Forecasting future values is a crucial element of successful decision making in trading. In this paper, a novel ensemble neuro-fuzzy model is proposed to overcome limitations and improve the previously successfully applied a five-layer multidimensional Gaussian neuro-fuzzy model and its learning. The proposed solution allows skipping the error-prone hyperparameters selection process and shows better accuracy results in real life financial data.

The OWA distance operator and its application in business failure

Kybernetes ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 114-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valeria Scherger ◽  
Antonio Terceño ◽  
Hernán Vigier
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Hamming Distance ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Distance Measures ◽  
Weighted Averaging ◽  
Business Failure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Owa Operators ◽  
Ordered Weighted Averaging ◽  
Alternative Measures

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop a goodness index based on Hamming distance and ordered weighted averaging distance (OWAD), which is useful to make decisions. These alternative measures enrich the results of diagnostic fuzzy models and facilitate the experts’ task in decision-making. An application to a set of firms to verify the results is also presented. Design/methodology/approach The paper follows the basis of OWA operators to design a methodology to reduce the map of causes of business failure into monitoring key areas. Findings The present paper introduces two alternative measures to test the proposal of grouping. In the empirical application, the superiority of the minimum T-norm over other decision rules is verified. The ordered weighted averaging distance (OWAD) goodness index predicts a better adjustment over the index built using OWA and Hamming distance measures. Practical implications A useful mechanism to reduce the map of causes or diseases detected in key areas is added through this analysis. At the same time, these key areas can be disaggregated once some alert indicator is identified; this allows knowing the causes that require special attention. This application of OWA can encourage the development of suitable computer systems for monitoring the firm’s problems, alerting regarding failures and easing decision-making. Originality/value A comparison of grouping causes into key areas through a goodness index based on Hamming distance and OWAD is proposed. These contributions enrich the Vigier and Terceño (2008) model and could be applied to any model of fuzzy diagnosis to test the results.

CHAOTIC CONTROL USING FUZZY MODEL-BASED METHODS

2002 ◽  
Vol 12 (08) ◽  
pp. 1827-1841 ◽  
Author(s):  
KUANG-YOW LIAN ◽  
PETER LIU ◽  
TSU-CHENG WU ◽  
WEI-CHI LIN
Keyword(s):  
Discrete Time ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Tracking Control ◽  
Chaotic Systems ◽  
Reference Model ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Step Method ◽  
Fuzzy Models ◽  
Error System ◽  
The Stability

In this paper, we propose a fuzzy tracking control for chaotic systems with immeasurable states. First we represent the chaotic and reference systems into T–S fuzzy models. Some properties concerning the premise variable selection and controller placement for chaotic systems are discussed. When considering immeasurable states, an observer is designed along with the controller to track a reference model which is a fixed point, a stable nonlinear system, or a chaotic system. For different premise variables between the plant and reference models, a robust approach is used to deal with the problem. The conditions for dealing with the stability of the overall error system are formulated into LMIs. Since the simultaneous solution to both the controller and observer gains with disturbances are not trivial, a two-step method is utilized. The methodology proposed above is applied to both continuous-time and discrete-time chaotic systems. Two well-known examples, the Chua's circuit for continuous-time and Hénon map for discrete-time, are used in numerical simulations and DSP-based experiments. The results verify the validity of theoretical derivations.

scholarly journals Adaptive control of cluster-based Web systems using neuro-fuzzy models

2012 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 365-377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Zatwarnicki
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Adaptive Control ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Web Technologies ◽  
Fuzzy Models ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy ◽  
Request Distribution ◽  
Fuzzy Neural ◽  
Web Systems

Adaptive control of cluster-based Web systems using neuro-fuzzy modelsA significant development of Web technologies requires the application of more and more complex systems and algorithms for maintaining high quality of Web services. Presently, not only simple decision-making tools but also complex adaptation algorithms using artificial intelligence techniques are applied for controlling HTTP request traffic. The paper presents a new LFNRD (Local Fuzzy-Neural Adaptive Request Distribution) algorithm for request distribution in cluster-based Web systems using neuro-fuzzy models of Web servers in the decision-making process. The neuro-fuzzy model which is applied is discussed in detail and a design of the Web switch using the proposed solution is presented. Finally, a testbed is described and the results of a comparative simulation study on the LFNRD algorithm, and other algorithms known from the literature and used in the industry, are presented and discussed.

IMPLEMENTASI METODE VIKOR DALAM PENERIMAAN JURNALIS PADA KORAN WASPADA MEDAN

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Soraya Rahma Hayati ◽  
Mesran Mesran ◽  
Taronisokhi Zebua ◽  
Heri Nurdiyanto ◽  
Khasanah Khasanah
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
Decision Support Systems ◽  
Support System ◽  
Support Systems ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
Computer Based ◽  
Support Decision Making ◽  
Made In

The reception of journalists at the Waspada Daily Medan always went through several rigorous selections before being determined to be accepted as journalists at the Waspada Medan Daily. There are several criteria that must be possessed by each participant as a condition for becoming a journalist in the Daily Alert Medan. To get the best participants, the Waspada Medan Daily needed a decision support system. Decision Support Systems (SPK) are part of computer-based information systems (including knowledge-based systems (knowledge management)) that are used to support decision making within an organization or company. Decision support systems provide a semitructured decision, where no one knows exactly how the decision should be made. In this study the authors applied the VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) as the method to be applied in the decision support system application. The VIKOR method is part of the Multi-Attibut Decision Making (MADM) Concept, which requires normalization in its calculations. The expected results in this study can obtain maximum decisions.Keywords: Journalist Acceptance, Decision Support System, VIKOR

A partner selection problem for complex product of manufacturing enterprises in supply chain

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Congdong Li ◽  
Yinyun Yu ◽  
Wei Xu ◽  
Jianzhu Sun
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Fuzzy Theory ◽  
Partner Selection ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Complex Product ◽  
Manufacturing Enterprises ◽  
Collaborative Manufacturing ◽  
Matching Degree ◽  
Decision Making Model

In order to better meet customer needs and respond to market demands more quickly, mounting number of manufacturing companies have begun to bid farewell to the traditional unitary manufacturing model. The collaborative manufacturing model has become a widely adopted manufacturing model for manufacturing companies. Aiming at the problem of partner selection for collaborative manufacturing of complex products in a collaborative supply chain environment, this paper proposes a multi-objective decision-making model that comprehensively considers the maximization of the matching degree of manufacturing capacity and the profits of supply chain, and gives the modeling process and application steps in detail. The method first uses fuzzy theory to evaluate the manufacturing capabilities of candidate collaborative manufacturing partners. Secondly, Vector Space Model (VSM) is used to calculate the matching degree of manufacturing capacity and manufacturing demand. Then, the paper studied the profit of the supply chain under the “non-cooperative” mechanism and the “revenue sharing” mechanism. Furthermore, the decision-making model is established. Finally, a simulation was carried out by taking complex product manufacturing of Gree enterprise as an example. The research results show the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.

A framework of decision making based on bipolar fuzzy competition hypergraphs

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Sundas Shahzadi ◽  
Areen Rasool ◽  
Musavarah Sarwar ◽  
Muhammad Akram
Keyword(s):  
Biological Sciences ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Social Networking ◽  
Real World ◽  
Fuzzy Models ◽  
New Concepts ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Business Market ◽  
Strength Of Competition

Bipolarity plays a key role in different domains such as technology, social networking and biological sciences for illustrating real-world phenomenon using bipolar fuzzy models. In this article, novel concepts of bipolar fuzzy competition hypergraphs are introduced and discuss the application of the proposed model. The main contribution is to illustrate different methods for the construction of bipolar fuzzy competition hypergraphs and their variants. Authors study various new concepts including bipolar fuzzy row hypergraphs, bipolar fuzzy column hypergraphs, bipolar fuzzy k-competition hypergraphs, bipolar fuzzy neighborhood hypergraphs and strong hyperedges. Besides, we develop some relations between bipolar fuzzy k-competition hypergraphs and bipolar fuzzy neighborhood hypergraphs. Moreover, authors design an algorithm to compute the strength of competition among companies in business market. A comparative analysis of the proposed model is discuss with the existing models such bipolar fuzzy competition graphs and fuzzy competition hypergraphs.

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