scholarly journals OPINION DYNAMICS AND COLLECTIVE DECISIONS

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (06n07) ◽  
pp. 1802002 ◽  
Author(s):  
JAN LORENZ ◽  
MARTIN NEUMANN
Keyword(s):  
Collective Intelligence ◽  
Opinion Dynamics ◽  
Collective Decision ◽  
Systems Dynamics ◽  
Opinion Formation ◽  
Individual Preferences ◽  
Collective Decisions ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Physical Laws

We expect that democracy enables us to utilize collective intelligence such that our collective decisions build and enhance social welfare, and such that we accept their distributive and normative consequences. Collective decisions are produced by voting procedures which aggregate individual preferences and judgments. Before and after, individual preferences and judgments change as their underlying attitudes, values, and opinions change through discussion and deliberation. In large groups, these dynamics naturally go beyond the scope of the individual and consequently might show unexpected self-driven macroscopic systems dynamics following socio-physical laws. On the other hand, aggregated information and preferences as communicated through media, polls, political parties, or interest groups, also play a large role in the individual opinion formation process. Further on, actors are also capable of strategic opinion formation in the light of a pending referendum, election or other collective decision. Opinion dynamics and collective decision should thus not only be tackled by social choice, game theory, political and social psychology, but also from a systems dynamics and sociophysics perspective.

The Maze and the Masses

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hélène Landemore
Keyword(s):  
Decision Procedure ◽  
Collective Intelligence ◽  
Thought Experiment ◽  
Collective Decision ◽  
The People ◽  
Collective Decisions ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The Masses

This chapter argues that collective intelligence offers an attractive solution to the problem of the average citizen's ignorance and irrationality. It first illustrates this point by presenting the metaphor of the maze, inspired by Descartes' thought experiment in the Discourse on Method. Next, the chapter sets out the definition of “democracy,” which gains a certain meaning and relevance within the context of this book—as, primarily, an inclusive collective decision procedure, that is, a procedure for collective decisions characterized by the fact that it is inclusive, more or less directly, of all the members of the group for whom decisions need to be made. The chapter then considers the domain of democratic reason and politics, before turning to the concept of democratic reason as the collective intelligence of the people. Finally, the chapter closes with a brief overview of the following chapters.

DYNAMICS WITH CO-EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL INCLINATION AND OPINION

2011 ◽  
Vol 22 (01) ◽  
pp. 51-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
FEI XIONG ◽  
YUN LIU ◽  
ZHENJIANG ZHANG
Keyword(s):  
Opinion Dynamics ◽  
Spin Systems ◽  
Voter Model ◽  
Formation Model ◽  
Opinion Formation ◽  
Final State ◽  
Memory Length ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Individual

Based on the voter model, we present a new opinion formation model which takes into account the evolution of both opinions and individual inclinations. A memory-based inclination is developed gradually during the process of social interaction; however, if the individual inclination gets strong enough, it will react to opinion dynamics. We assume that an individual inclination increases with the number of times the individual has held its most frequent opinion in the past interactions. As a result of inclination choices the transition rate following neighbors decreases, thus slowing down the microscopic dynamics. Analytical and simulation results indicate the system under the action of opinion inclinations evolves to a more polarized state for average opinion. The appearance of extremists holding the minority opinion is observed in the final state, where one opinion predominates. It is also found that the stable opinion and relaxation time depend on network topology and memory length. Moreover, this model is not only valid to the voter model, but can also be applied to other spin systems.

WORD-OF-MOUTH VERSUS EXPERTS AND REPUTATION IN THE INDIVIDUAL DYNAMICS OF WINE PURCHASING

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (06) ◽  
pp. 871-885 ◽  
Author(s):  
TATIANA BOUZDINE-CHAMEEVA ◽  
SERGE GALAM
Keyword(s):  
Social Interactions ◽  
Word Of Mouth ◽  
Specific Problem ◽  
Opinion Dynamics ◽  
Practical Implementation ◽  
Purchasing Behavior ◽  
Sample Distribution ◽  
Individual Preferences ◽  
Market Shares ◽  
The Individual

The dynamics of wine purchasing behavior is studied focusing on the respective impacts of the word-to-mouth versus wine expert judgements and reputations. To investigate the problem we apply the Galam model of opinion dynamics to agents who have to select a preference about which type of wine to buy given expert judgements, individual preferences and wine reputations. It could be, for instance, a preference between Bordeaux and Burgundy. The main novelty of the work is not about the building of a new model but indeed the construction of a scheme to confront the Galam model to a specific problem of the real world. Accordingly we design a commercial strategy to hold on to a share of the wine market. It provides a novel understanding on how, given some established reputation, the competitive interplay between social interactions and expert judgments affects the market shares distribution. The financial implications of the practical implementation of these results are discussed. In particular it is found that sample distribution of bottles could be drastically reduced from the usual levels practiced by producers. We hope our results will convince some wine producers to test our predictions.

scholarly journals Mixing Dyadic and Deliberative Opinion Dynamics in an Agent-Based Model of Group Decision-Making

Complexity ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-31
Author(s):  
George Butler ◽  
Gabriella Pigozzi ◽  
Juliette Rouchier
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Opinion Dynamics ◽  
Collective Decision ◽  
Collective Decision Making ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Social Modeling ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Collective Decisions ◽  
Collective Deliberation

In this article, we propose an agent-based model of opinion diffusion and voting where influence among individuals and deliberation in a group are mixed. The model is inspired from social modeling, as it describes an iterative process of collective decision-making that repeats a series of interindividual influences and collective deliberation steps, and studies the evolution of opinions and decisions in a group. It also aims at founding a comprehensive model to describe collective decision-making as a combination of two different paradigms: argumentation theory and ABM-influence models, which are not obvious to combine as a formal link between them is required. In our model, we find that deliberation, through the exchange of arguments, reduces the variance of opinions and the proportion of extremists in a population as long as not too much deliberation takes place in the decision processes. Additionally, if we define the correct collective decisions in the system in terms of the arguments that should be accepted, allowing for more deliberation favors convergence towards the correct decisions.

scholarly journals Association of Borda's method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for the acquisition of helicopters by the Brazilian Navy

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 23-47
Author(s):  
Eduardo Picanço Cruz ◽  
Carlos Navarro Fontanillas ◽  
Karen Possoli ◽  
Martius Vicente Rodriguez y Rodriguez
Keyword(s):  
Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Decision Aids ◽  
Multicriteria Analysis ◽  
Collective Decision ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Collective Decisions ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
Combination Of Methods ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Purpose – A combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Borda’s Method as a suggestion for collective decision-making. By harmonizing the cardinal scale, resulting from the AHP, with the Borda’s Method, it is expected that the evaluations of the alternatives for new helicopters maximize the individual opinions in the construction of a collective decision. Design/methodology/approach – Qualitative and quantitative. The agents involved in the project of acquisition of helicopters for General Usage and Small Capacity for the Brazilian Navy were interviewed, ten pilots and six military engineers from Aeronautics Board of the Brazilian Navy in Rio de Janeiro. The data were treated by combining the cardinal scale resulting from the AHP with the method proposed by Borda. Findings – Analyzing the MGP’s obtained by AHP, it was possible to ascertain that judgment inconsistencies did not affect the result. It is considered that both methods are capable to promote a helpful decision aid inside the BN in the decision upon the purchase of an aircraft to substitute and enhance their naval aviation fleet. It is also considered that both methods can be applied in similar situation of decisions between mutually exclusive alternatives. Originality/value – The usage of hybrid decision aids (created by the combination of methods) in a multicriteria analysis helps organizations make the best use of available resources, especially in complex decision scenarios. This study helps decision-makers to reflect about the process’ tolerance limits. Keywords - Collective decisions; Multicriteria; Borda's Method; Analytic Hierarchy Process.

Official Advice Improves Mortgage-Holders’ Perceptions of Switching: Experimental Evidence

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shane Timmons
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Experimental Evidence ◽  
Consumer Protection ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Switching Process ◽  
Competitive Markets ◽  
Protection Agency ◽  
Change Perceptions ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Individual

Encouraging consumers to switch to lower-rate mortgages is important both for the individual consumer’s finances and for functioning competitive markets, but switching rates are low. Given the complexity of mortgages, one potential regulatory intervention that may increase switching rates is to provide independent advice on how to select good mortgage products and how to navigate the switching process. Working with a government consumer protection agency, we conducted an experiment with mortgage-holders to test whether such advice alters perceptions of switching. The experiment tested how (i) the attributes of the offer, (ii) perceptions about the switching process, (iii) individual feelings of competence and (iv) comprehension of the product affect willingness to switch to better offers, both before and after reading the official advice. The advice made consumers more sensitive to interest rate decreases, especially at longer terms. It also increased consumers’ confidence in their ability to select good offers. Overall, the findings imply that advice from policymakers can change perceptions and increase switching rates. Moreover, the experiment demonstrates how lab studies can contribute to behaviourally-informed policy development.

Quality of Life for Children with Persistent Sinonasal Symptoms

2003 ◽  
Vol 128 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Kay ◽  
Richard M. Rosenfeld
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Clinical Care ◽  
Longitudinal Change ◽  
Good Test ◽  
Routine Clinical Care ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Sinonasal Symptoms

OBJECTIVE: The goal was to validate the SN-5 survey as a measure of longitudinal change in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) for children with persistent sinonasal symptoms. DESIGN AND SETTING: We conducted a before and after study of 85 children aged 2 to 12 years in a metropolitan pediatric otolaryngology practice. Caregivers completed the SN-5 survey at entry and at least 4 weeks later. The survey included 5 symptom-cluster items covering the domains of sinus infection, nasal obstruction, allergy symptoms, emotional distress, and activity limitations. RESULTS: Good test-retest reliability ( R = 0.70) was obtained for the overall SN-5 score and the individual survey items ( R ≥ 0.58). The mean baseline SN-5 score was 3.8 (SD, 1.0) of a maximum of 7.0, with higher scores indicating poorer HRQoL. All SN-5 items had adequate correlation ( R ≥ 0.36) with external constructs. The mean change in SN-5 score after routine clinical care was 0.88 (SD, 1.19) with an effect size of 0.74 indicating good responsiveness to longitudinal change. The change scores correlated appropriately with changes in related external constructs ( R ≥ 0.42). CONCLUSIONS: The SN-5 is a valid, reliable, and responsive measure of HRQoL for children with persistent sinonasal symptoms, suitable for use in outcomes studies and routine clinical care.

scholarly journals General psychopathology links burden of recent life events and psychotic symptoms in a network approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Linda T. Betz ◽  
◽  
Nora Penzel ◽  
Lana Kambeitz-Ilankovic ◽  
Marlene Rosen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life Events ◽  
Childhood Trauma ◽  
Negative Symptoms ◽  
Psychotic Symptoms ◽  
Network Approach ◽  
General Psychopathology ◽  
Recent Onset ◽  
Syndrome Scale ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Individual

AbstractRecent life events have been implicated in the onset and progression of psychosis. However, psychological processes that account for the association are yet to be fully understood. Using a network approach, we aimed to identify pathways linking recent life events and symptoms observed in psychosis. Based on previous literature, we hypothesized that general symptoms would mediate between recent life events and psychotic symptoms. We analyzed baseline data of patients at clinical high risk for psychosis and with recent-onset psychosis (n = 547) from the Personalised Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management (PRONIA) study. In a network analysis, we modeled links between the burden of recent life events and all individual symptoms of the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale before and after controlling for childhood trauma. To investigate the longitudinal associations between burden of recent life events and symptoms, we analyzed multiwave panel data from seven timepoints up to month 18. Corroborating our hypothesis, burden of recent life events was connected to positive and negative symptoms through general psychopathology, specifically depression, guilt feelings, anxiety and tension, even after controlling for childhood trauma. Longitudinal modeling indicated that on average, burden of recent life events preceded general psychopathology in the individual. In line with the theory of an affective pathway to psychosis, recent life events may lead to psychotic symptoms via heightened emotional distress. Life events may be one driving force of unspecific, general psychopathology described as characteristic of early phases of the psychosis spectrum, offering promising avenues for interventions.

Adaptive Precision Block-Jacobi for High Performance Preconditioning in the Ginkgo Linear Algebra Software

2021 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-28
Author(s):  
Goran Flegar ◽  
Hartwig Anzt ◽  
Terry Cojean ◽  
Enrique S. Quintana-Ortí
Keyword(s):  
Linear Algebra ◽  
Graphics Processing Units ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Numerical Algorithms ◽  
Mixed Precision ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Memory Accesses ◽  
Specialized Hardware ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Graphics Processing

The use of mixed precision in numerical algorithms is a promising strategy for accelerating scientific applications. In particular, the adoption of specialized hardware and data formats for low-precision arithmetic in high-end GPUs (graphics processing units) has motivated numerous efforts aiming at carefully reducing the working precision in order to speed up the computations. For algorithms whose performance is bound by the memory bandwidth, the idea of compressing its data before (and after) memory accesses has received considerable attention. One idea is to store an approximate operator–like a preconditioner–in lower than working precision hopefully without impacting the algorithm output. We realize the first high-performance implementation of an adaptive precision block-Jacobi preconditioner which selects the precision format used to store the preconditioner data on-the-fly, taking into account the numerical properties of the individual preconditioner blocks. We implement the adaptive block-Jacobi preconditioner as production-ready functionality in the Ginkgo linear algebra library, considering not only the precision formats that are part of the IEEE standard, but also customized formats which optimize the length of the exponent and significand to the characteristics of the preconditioner blocks. Experiments run on a state-of-the-art GPU accelerator show that our implementation offers attractive runtime savings.

Opinion Dynamics Optimization by Varying Susceptibility to Persuasion via Non-Convex Local Search

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-34
Author(s):  
Rediet Abebe ◽  
T.-H. HUBERT Chan ◽  
Jon Kleinberg ◽  
Zhibin Liang ◽  
David Parkes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Local Search ◽  
Objective Function ◽  
Iterative Process ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Opinion Dynamics ◽  
Theoretical Models ◽  
Global Optimum ◽  
Local Optimum ◽  
Opinion Formation ◽  
Long Line

A long line of work in social psychology has studied variations in people’s susceptibility to persuasion—the extent to which they are willing to modify their opinions on a topic. This body of literature suggests an interesting perspective on theoretical models of opinion formation by interacting parties in a network: in addition to considering interventions that directly modify people’s intrinsic opinions, it is also natural to consider interventions that modify people’s susceptibility to persuasion. In this work, motivated by this fact, we propose an influence optimization problem. Specifically, we adopt a popular model for social opinion dynamics, where each agent has some fixed innate opinion, and a resistance that measures the importance it places on its innate opinion; agents influence one another’s opinions through an iterative process. Under certain conditions, this iterative process converges to some equilibrium opinion vector. For the unbudgeted variant of the problem, the goal is to modify the resistance of any number of agents (within some given range) such that the sum of the equilibrium opinions is minimized; for the budgeted variant, in addition the algorithm is given upfront a restriction on the number of agents whose resistance may be modified. We prove that the objective function is in general non-convex. Hence, formulating the problem as a convex program as in an early version of this work (Abebe et al., KDD’18) might have potential correctness issues. We instead analyze the structure of the objective function, and show that any local optimum is also a global optimum, which is somehow surprising as the objective function might not be convex. Furthermore, we combine the iterative process and the local search paradigm to design very efficient algorithms that can solve the unbudgeted variant of the problem optimally on large-scale graphs containing millions of nodes. Finally, we propose and evaluate experimentally a family of heuristics for the budgeted variant of the problem.

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