Climate Change and Phenological Mismatch in Trophic Interactions Among Plants, Insects, and Vertebrates

2018 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne S. Renner ◽  
Constantin M. Zohner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Trophic Interactions ◽  
Life Cycles ◽  
Population Variation ◽  
Day Length ◽  
Interacting Species ◽  
Phenological Mismatch ◽  
Mutualistic Interactions ◽  
Negative Impacts

Phenological mismatch results when interacting species change the timing of regularly repeated phases in their life cycles at different rates. We review whether this continuously ongoing phenomenon, also known as trophic asynchrony, is becoming more common under ongoing rapid climate change. In antagonistic trophic interactions, any mismatch will have negative impacts for only one of the species, whereas in mutualistic interactions, both partners are expected to suffer. Trophic mismatch is therefore expected to last for evolutionarily short periods, perhaps only a few seasons, adding to the difficulty of attributing it to climate change, which requires long-term data. So far, the prediction that diverging phenologies linked to climate change will cause mismatch is most clearly met in antagonistic interactions at high latitudes in the Artic. There is limited evidence of phenological mismatch in mutualistic interactions, possibly because of strong selection on mutualists to have co-adapted phenological strategies. The study of individual plasticity, population variation, and the genetic bases for phenological strategies is in its infancy. Recent work on woody plants revealed the large imprint of historic climate change on temperature, chilling, and day-length thresholds used by different species to synchronize their phenophases, which in the Northern Hemisphere has led to biogeographic phenological regions in which long-lived plants have adapted to particular interannual and intermillennial amplitudes of climate change.

scholarly journals Regulation strength and technology creep play key roles in global long-term projections of wild capture fisheries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Scherrer ◽  
Eric Galbraith
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Technological Progress ◽  
Large Degree ◽  
Size Spectrum ◽  
Spatially Resolved ◽  
Fish Catch ◽  
Regulation Strength ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Temporary Stabilization

Abstract Many studies have shown that the global fish catch can only be sustained with effective regulation that restrains overfishing. However, the persistence of weak or ineffective regulation in many parts of the world, coupled with changing technologies and additional stressors like climate change, renders the future of global catches uncertain. Here, we use a spatially resolved, bio-economic size-spectrum model to shed light on the interactive impacts of three globally important drivers over multidecadal timescales: imperfect regulation, technology-driven catchability increase, and climate change. We implement regulation as the adjustment of fishing towards a target level with some degree of effectiveness and project a range of possible trajectories for global fisheries. We find that if technological progress continues apace, increasingly effective regulation is required to prevent overfishing, akin to a Red Queen race. Climate change reduces the possible upper bound for global catches, but its economic impacts can be offset by strong regulation. Ominously, technological progress under weak regulation masks a progressive erosion of fish biomass by boosting profits and generating a temporary stabilization of global catches. Our study illustrates the large degree to which the long-term outlook of global fisheries can be improved by continually strengthening fisheries regulation, despite the negative impacts of climate change.

scholarly journals Agricultural Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climatic Changes in Malaysia: Review on Paddy Sector

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Mahmudul Alam ◽  
Chamhuri Siwar ◽  
Abdul Hamid Jaafar ◽  
Basri Talib ◽  
Khairulmaini Bin Osman Salleh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Productivity ◽  
Soil Condition ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Climatic Variation ◽  
Government Subsidy ◽  
Agricultural Vulnerability ◽  
Pest Outbreaks ◽  
Negative Impacts

Climate change has mixed impacts on agriculture and the impacts are different in terms of areas, periods and crops. The changing factors of climate have been exerting strong negative impacts on Malaysian agriculture, which is apprehended to result in shortages of water and other resources for long term, worsening soil condition, disease and pest outbreaks on crops and livestock, sea-level rise, and so on. Due to climate change, agricultural productivity and profitability is declining. Despite continuous increases of government subsidy, area of paddy plantation is decreasing and the adaption practices are ineffective. As climate change is universal and its existence is indefinite, the farmers need to adapt to and find ways to mitigate the damages of climatic variation in order to sustain agricultural productivity and attain food security for the

scholarly journals Sustainable Coastal Cities between Theory and Practice (Case Study: Egyptian Coastal Cities)

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingy M. El Barmelgy ◽  
Sarah E. Abdel Rasheed
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nile Delta ◽  
Mediterranean Coast ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Coastal Cities ◽  
Northern Areas ◽  
The World ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
The Impact

<p>Climate change is no longer considered an environmental or scientific issue but rather a developmental challenge that requires urgent, dynamic policy and technical responses at the regional, national and local levels. Its actions and responses impact sustainable development, ensuring the integrity of all ecosystems and the protection of biodiversity. There has been an intensive discussion and research about sea level rise (S.L.R) one of the most negative impacts of climate change which affects many coastal cities around the world. Egypt is considered one of the top five countries expected to be impacted with S.L.R in the world, especially northern areas of the Nile Delta and cities located on the Mediterranean coast.</p>This paper aims to evaluate the impact of S.L.R on the urban development strategies of the Egyptian northern coastal cities; highlighting the national response to global efforts regarding this problem in order to enhance the capacity for the adaptation and mitigation of potential impacts in the long term. Finally, it suggests some recommendations and framework actions to be taken to help Egyptian coastal cities in dealing with climate change over different timescales.

scholarly journals Diversity buffers winegrowing regions from climate change losses

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (6) ◽  
pp. 2864-2869 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ignacio Morales-Castilla ◽  
Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri ◽  
Benjamin I. Cook ◽  
Thierry Lacombe ◽  
Amber Parker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Intraspecific Diversity ◽  
Warming Scenario ◽  
Agricultural Plants ◽  
Cultivar Diversity ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
High Diversity ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Agrobiodiversity—the variation within agricultural plants, animals, and practices—is often suggested as a way to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on crops [S. A. Wood et al., Trends Ecol. Evol. 30, 531–539 (2015)]. Recently, increasing research and attention has focused on exploiting the intraspecific genetic variation within a crop [Hajjar et al., Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 123, 261–270 (2008)], despite few relevant tests of how this diversity modifies agricultural forecasts. Here, we quantify how intraspecific diversity, via cultivars, changes global projections of growing areas. We focus on a crop that spans diverse climates, has the necessary records, and is clearly impacted by climate change: winegrapes (predominantly Vitis vinifera subspecies vinifera). We draw on long-term French records to extrapolate globally for 11 cultivars (varieties) with high diversity in a key trait for climate change adaptation—phenology. We compared scenarios where growers shift to more climatically suitable cultivars as the climate warms or do not change cultivars. We find that cultivar diversity more than halved projected losses of current winegrowing areas under a 2 °C warming scenario, decreasing areas lost from 56 to 24%. These benefits are more muted at higher warming scenarios, reducing areas lost by a third at 4 °C (85% versus 58%). Our results support the potential of in situ shifting of cultivars to adapt agriculture to climate change—including in major winegrowing regions—as long as efforts to avoid higher warming scenarios are successful.

scholarly journals Ecotourism for Rural Karnataka: Some Impact Assessments

1970 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 94-105
Author(s):  
D C Nanjunda
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Hot Spots ◽  
Growth And Development ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Global Biodiversity ◽  
Negative Impacts

unique heritage, cultural and natural attractions. Karnataka has tremendous potentiality for the growth and development of ecotourism. In fact Karnataka forms a part of the global biodiversity hot spots with varieties of rural heritage, which can be used for advocating environmental awareness, long-term conservation measures and economic benefits to the local people. Tourism is one of the largest and fastest growing economic sectors worldwide especially in Karnataka. Climate change and its various impacts pose a significant risk to tourism, especially in developing countries where tourism is often the single most important industry. However experts feel ecotourism also causes a kind of atrocity on the bio diversity. Through this article the author is analyzing both positive and negative impacts of ecotourism.

scholarly journals Environmental variability and phenology evolution: impacts of climate change and spring onset on reproductive timing in a small mammal

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Easton R White ◽  
Kalle Parvinen ◽  
Ulf Dieckmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Environmental Variability ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Timing Of Reproduction ◽  
Juvenile Mortality ◽  
Interacting Species ◽  
Ochotona Collaris ◽  
The Mean

The phenology, or timing of life history events, of organisms affects both ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Recent work has illustrated the effects of climate change on the phenology for many species. Changing selective pressures on phenology can have consequences for species if the reliability of phenological cues decreases or if climate change affects interacting species differentially. There are now numerous examples, in which earlier mean timing of spring has selected for earlier phenology of organisms. However, much less is known about how changes in the variability of spring — and consequently the reliability of cues — might affect species. We built a general model of animal population dynamics to study both the ecology and evolution of phenological events under climate change. We parameterized this model for a population of the collared pika (Ochotona collaris) found in the Yukon, Canada. In line with past work, we show that an earlier timing of spring snowmelt will select for an earlier timing of reproduction. In addition, we show that variability in the onset of spring also selects for earlier reproduction. However, evolution or plasticity in juvenile mortality, due to late snowmelt, can lead to later reproduction. These results highlight the importance of looking at the variability, and not only the mean, in spring onset. The specific relationship between the mean and variability of spring onset coupled with the ability of a population to be plastic or adaptable will determine the long-term effects of climate change on the phenology of species.

scholarly journals Environmental variability and phenology evolution: impacts of climate change and spring onset on reproductive timing in a small mammal

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Easton R White ◽  
Kalle Parvinen ◽  
Ulf Dieckmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Environmental Variability ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Timing Of Reproduction ◽  
Juvenile Mortality ◽  
Interacting Species ◽  
Ochotona Collaris ◽  
The Mean

The phenology, or timing of life history events, of organisms affects both ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Recent work has illustrated the effects of climate change on the phenology for many species. Changing selective pressures on phenology can have consequences for species if the reliability of phenological cues decreases or if climate change affects interacting species differentially. There are now numerous examples, in which earlier mean timing of spring has selected for earlier phenology of organisms. However, much less is known about how changes in the variability of spring — and consequently the reliability of cues — might affect species. We built a general model of animal population dynamics to study both the ecology and evolution of phenological events under climate change. We parameterized this model for a population of the collared pika (Ochotona collaris) found in the Yukon, Canada. In line with past work, we show that an earlier timing of spring snowmelt will select for an earlier timing of reproduction. In addition, we show that variability in the onset of spring also selects for earlier reproduction. However, evolution or plasticity in juvenile mortality, due to late snowmelt, can lead to later reproduction. These results highlight the importance of looking at the variability, and not only the mean, in spring onset. The specific relationship between the mean and variability of spring onset coupled with the ability of a population to be plastic or adaptable will determine the long-term effects of climate change on the phenology of species.

scholarly journals Disorder or a new order: how climate change affects phenological variability

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Stemkovski ◽  
James R. Bell ◽  
Elizabeth R. Ellwood ◽  
Brian D. Inouye ◽  
Hiromi Kobori ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
New Order ◽  
Spring Phenology ◽  
Interacting Species ◽  
First Occurrence ◽  
Phenological Shifts ◽  
Flower Phenology ◽  
Over Time

Advancing spring phenology is a well-documented consequence of anthropogenic climate change, but it is not well understood how climate change will affect the variability of phenology year-to-year. Species' phenological timings reflect adaptation to a broad suite of abiotic needs (e.g. thermal energy) and biotic interactions (e.g. predation and pollination), and changes in patterns of variability may disrupt those adaptations and interactions. Here, we present a geographically and taxonomically broad analysis of phenological shifts, temperature sensitivity, and changes in inter-annual variance encompassing nearly 10,000 long-term phenology time-series representing over 1,000 species across much of the northern hemisphere. We show that early-season species in colder and less seasonal regions were the most sensitive to temperature change and had the least variable phenologies. The timings of leaf-out, flowering, insect first-occurrence, and bird arrival have all shifted earlier and tend to be less variable in warmer years. This has led leaf-out and flower phenology to become moderately but significantly less variable over time. These simultaneous changes in phenological averages and the variation around them have the potential to influence mismatches among interacting species that are difficult to anticipate if shifts in average are studied in isolation.

scholarly journals Phenological Response in the Trophic Levels to Climate Change in Korea

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 1086
Author(s):  
Minkyung Kim ◽  
Sojeong Lee ◽  
Hakyung Lee ◽  
Sangdon Lee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Trophic Groups ◽  
Phenological Data ◽  
Phenological Mismatch ◽  
Phenological Shifts ◽  
Primary Consumers ◽  
Secondary Consumers

The response of the phenological events of individual species to climate change is not isolated, but is connected through interaction with other species at the same or adjacent trophic level. Using long-term phenological data observed since 1976 in Korea, whose temperature has risen more steeply than the average global temperature, this study conducted phenological analysis (differ-ences in the phenology of groups, differences in phenological shifts due to climate change, differ-ences in phenological sensitivity to climate by groups, and the change of phenological day differ-ences among interacting groups). The phenological shift of the producer group (plants) was found to be negative in all researched species, which means that it blooms quickly over the years. The regression slope of consumers (primary consumers and secondary consumers) was generally posi-tive which means that the phenological events of these species tended to be later during the study period. The inter-regional deviation of phenological events was not large for any plant except for plum tree and Black locust. In addition, regional variations in high trophic levels of secondary consumers tended to be greater than that of producers and primary consumers. Among the studied species, plum was the most sensitive to temperature, and when the temperature rose by 1 °C, the flowering time of plum decreased by 7.20 days. As a result of checking the day differences in the phenological events of the interacting species, the phenological events of species were reversed, and butterflies have appeared earlier than plum, Korean forsythia, and Korean rosebay since 1990. Using long-term data from Korea, this study investigated differences in phenological reactions among trophic groups. There is a possibility of a phenological mismatch between trophic groups in the future if global warming continues due to differences in sensitivity to climate and phenological shifts between trophic levels.

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