scholarly journals Environmental variability and phenology evolution: impacts of climate change and spring onset on reproductive timing in a small mammal

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Easton R White ◽  
Kalle Parvinen ◽  
Ulf Dieckmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Environmental Variability ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Timing Of Reproduction ◽  
Juvenile Mortality ◽  
Interacting Species ◽  
Ochotona Collaris ◽  
The Mean

The phenology, or timing of life history events, of organisms affects both ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Recent work has illustrated the effects of climate change on the phenology for many species. Changing selective pressures on phenology can have consequences for species if the reliability of phenological cues decreases or if climate change affects interacting species differentially. There are now numerous examples, in which earlier mean timing of spring has selected for earlier phenology of organisms. However, much less is known about how changes in the variability of spring — and consequently the reliability of cues — might affect species. We built a general model of animal population dynamics to study both the ecology and evolution of phenological events under climate change. We parameterized this model for a population of the collared pika (Ochotona collaris) found in the Yukon, Canada. In line with past work, we show that an earlier timing of spring snowmelt will select for an earlier timing of reproduction. In addition, we show that variability in the onset of spring also selects for earlier reproduction. However, evolution or plasticity in juvenile mortality, due to late snowmelt, can lead to later reproduction. These results highlight the importance of looking at the variability, and not only the mean, in spring onset. The specific relationship between the mean and variability of spring onset coupled with the ability of a population to be plastic or adaptable will determine the long-term effects of climate change on the phenology of species.

scholarly journals Environmental variability and phenology evolution: impacts of climate change and spring onset on reproductive timing in a small mammal

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Easton R White ◽  
Kalle Parvinen ◽  
Ulf Dieckmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Environmental Variability ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Timing Of Reproduction ◽  
Juvenile Mortality ◽  
Interacting Species ◽  
Ochotona Collaris ◽  
The Mean

The phenology, or timing of life history events, of organisms affects both ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Recent work has illustrated the effects of climate change on the phenology for many species. Changing selective pressures on phenology can have consequences for species if the reliability of phenological cues decreases or if climate change affects interacting species differentially. There are now numerous examples, in which earlier mean timing of spring has selected for earlier phenology of organisms. However, much less is known about how changes in the variability of spring — and consequently the reliability of cues — might affect species. We built a general model of animal population dynamics to study both the ecology and evolution of phenological events under climate change. We parameterized this model for a population of the collared pika (Ochotona collaris) found in the Yukon, Canada. In line with past work, we show that an earlier timing of spring snowmelt will select for an earlier timing of reproduction. In addition, we show that variability in the onset of spring also selects for earlier reproduction. However, evolution or plasticity in juvenile mortality, due to late snowmelt, can lead to later reproduction. These results highlight the importance of looking at the variability, and not only the mean, in spring onset. The specific relationship between the mean and variability of spring onset coupled with the ability of a population to be plastic or adaptable will determine the long-term effects of climate change on the phenology of species.

The geography of climate migration

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-37
Author(s):  
Michał Burzyński ◽  
Frédéric Docquier ◽  
Hendrik Scheewel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
International Migration ◽  
First Century ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Rural And Urban ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Internal Mobility ◽  
Almost All

Abstract In this paper, we investigate the long-term effects of climate change on the mobility of working-age people. We use a world economy model that covers almost all the countries around the world, and distinguishes between rural and urban regions as well as between flooded and unflooded areas. The model is calibrated to match international and internal mobility data by education level for the last 30 years, and is then simulated under climate change variants. We endogenize the size, dyadic, and skill structure of climate migration. When considering moderate climate scenarios, we predict mobility responses in the range of 70–108 million workers over the course of the twenty-first century. Most of these movements are local or inter-regional. South–South international migration responses are smaller, while the South–North migration response is of the “brain drain” type and induces a permanent increase in the number of foreigners in OECD countries in the range of 6–9% only. Changes in the sea level mainly translate into forced local movements. By contrast, inter-regional and international movements are sensitive to temperature-related changes in productivity. Lastly, we show that relaxing international migration restrictions may exacerbate the poverty effect of climate change at origin if policymakers are unable to select/screen individuals in extreme poverty.

scholarly journals Distribution and Abundance of Double-crested Cormorants Nesting in the Interior of California, 2009–2012

Western Birds ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 270-292
Author(s):  
W. David Shuford ◽  
Kathy C. Molina ◽  
John P. Kelly ◽  
T. Emiko Condeso ◽  
Daniel S. Cooper ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sonoran Desert ◽  
Central Valley ◽  
The State ◽  
Salton Sea ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Human Needs ◽  
Large Fluctuations

As part of an 11-state inventory, we censused the Double-crested Cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) in the interior of California from 2009 to 2012, using a combination of aerial, ground, and boat surveys. An estimated 8791 pairs breeding in the interior of the state in 2009–2012 exceeded the 7170 pairs estimated in 1998–1999. In both periods, cormorants were breeding in 9 of 11 ecoregions, but three-fourths were at one site—Mullet Island at the Salton Sea in the Sonoran Desert ecoregion (abandoned in 2014). The ecoregions with the next highest proportions were the Sacramento Valley, San Joaquin Valley, and Modoc Plateau. The apparent increase in numbers and colony sites since 1999—consistent with the pattern through much of western North America—reflects the (short-lived) increase in numbers at the Salton Sea, an increasing number of colonies and breeding pairs in the Central Valley, and slightly better coverage on the recent surveys. Because of practical survey constraints and limited data to date, evidence of change in numbers of Doublecrested Cormorants breeding in the interior of California between 1998–1999 and 2009–2012 is inconclusive. Plans for monitoring will need to take into account the effects of substantial annual variation in numbers, which may be associated with large fluctuations in cormorants’ prey base, short-term cycles of drought and flood, shifts of nesting cormorants into or out of the interior of California, and the expectation of greater environmental fluctuations with continuing climate change. The factors most likely to limit the number of cormorants breeding in the interior of the state are habitat loss or alteration (particularly from reallocation of water for human needs), disease, human disturbance, and the long-term effects of climate change.

scholarly journals Seasonal activity of Dermacentor reticulatus ticks in the era of progressive climate change in eastern Poland

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zbigniew Zając ◽  
Joanna Kulisz ◽  
Aneta Woźniak ◽  
Katarzyna Bartosik ◽  
Adil Khan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Dermacentor Reticulatus ◽  
Seasonal Activity ◽  
Saturation Deficit ◽  
Annual Basis ◽  
Questing Ticks ◽  
The Mean

AbstractDermacentor reticulatus ticks are one of the most important vectors and reservoirs of tick-borne pathogens in Europe. Changes in the abundance and range of this species have been observed in the last decade and these ticks are collected in areas previously considered tick-free. This may be influenced by progressive climate change. Eastern Poland is an area where the local population of D. reticulatus is one of the most numerous among those described so far. At the same time, the region is characterized by a significant increase in the mean air temperature in recent years (by 1.81 °C in 2020) and a decrease in the average number of days with snow cover (by 64 days in 2020) and in the number of days with frost (by 20 days in 2020) on an annual basis compared to the long-term average. The aim of our research was to investigate the rhythms of seasonal activity and the population size of D. reticulatus in the era of progressive climate change. To this end, questing ticks were collected in 2017–2020. Next, the weather conditions in the years of observation were analyzed and compared with multi-year data covering 30 years preceding the study. The research results show that, in eastern Poland, there is a stable population of D. reticulatus with the peak of activity in spring or autumn (up to a maximum of 359 individuals within 30 min of collection) depending on the year of observation. Ticks of this species may also be active in winter months. The activity of D. reticulatus is influenced by a saturation deficit.

scholarly journals Evolutionary dynamics of neutral phenotypes under DNA substitution models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shadi Zabad ◽  
Alan M Moses
Keyword(s):  
Dna Sequences ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Gc Content ◽  
Stabilizing Selection ◽  
Restoring Force ◽  
Dna Substitution ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Molecular Phenotypes

AbstractWe study the evolution of quantitative molecular traits in the absence of selection. Using a simple theory based on Felsenstein’s 1981 DNA substitution model, we predict a linear restoring force on the mean of an additive phenotype. Remarkably, the mean dynamics are independent of the effect sizes and genotype and are similar to the widely-used OU model for stabilizing selection. We confirm the predictions empirically using additive molecular phenotypes calculated from ancestral reconstructions of putatively unconstrained DNA sequences in primate genomes. We show that the OU model is favoured by inference software even when applied to GC content of unconstrained sequences or simulations of DNA evolution. We predict and confirm empirically that the dynamics of the variance are more complicated than those predicted by the OU model, and show that our results for the restoring force of mutation hold even for non-additive phenotypes, such as number of transcription factor binding sites, longest encoded peptide and folding propensity of the encoded peptide. Our results have implications for efforts to infer selection based on quantitative phenotype dynamics as well as to understand long-term trends in evolution of quantitative molecular traits.

Laying date of marsh tits Parus palustris in relation to climate change

Biologia ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 61 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zdravko Dolenec
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Life History Traits ◽  
Laying Date ◽  
Bird Breeding ◽  
Spring Temperatures ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Marsh Tit ◽  
Term Data

AbstractIncreasing evidence suggests that climate change affects bird breeding phenology and other life-history traits of wildlife. This study is based on the mean spring temperatures (February, March, April) and laying dates of first eggs of the marsh tit Parus palustris. We collected data from 1984 to 2004 for the Mokrice area in NW Croatia. Correlation between laying date and mean spring temperatures was significant. The relationship between mean laying date (y) and air temperature (x) can be expressed as y = 44.69 − 2.08x. Results indicate that spring temperatures are a good predictor of timing of laying eggs. Such long-term data could than be used in order to assess the effects on biological systems if human activities influence climate.

scholarly journals Eco-evolutionary feedbacks promote fluctuating selection and long-term stability of antagonistic networks

2018 ◽  
Vol 285 (1874) ◽  
pp. 20172596 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cecilia Siliansky de Andreazzi ◽  
Paulo R. Guimarães ◽  
Carlos J. Melián
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Variation ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Species Interaction ◽  
Fluctuating Selection ◽  
Term Stability ◽  
Long Term Stability ◽  
Interacting Species ◽  
Species Abundances ◽  
Antagonistic Interactions

Studies have shown the potential for rapid adaptation in coevolving populations and that the structure of species interaction networks can modulate the vulnerability of ecological systems to perturbations. Although the feedback loop between population dynamics and coevolution of traits is crucial for understanding long-term stability in ecological assemblages, modelling eco-evolutionary dynamics in species-rich assemblages is still a challenge. We explore how eco-evolutionary feedbacks influence trait evolution and species abundances in 23 empirical antagonistic networks. We show that, if selection due to antagonistic interactions is stronger than other selective pressures, eco-evolutionary feedbacks lead to higher mean species abundances and lower temporal variation in abundances. By contrast, strong selection of antagonistic interactions leads to higher temporal variation of traits and on interaction strengths. Our results present a theoretical link between the study of the species persistence and coevolution in networks of interacting species, pointing out the ways by which coevolution may decrease the vulnerability of species within antagonistic networks to demographic fluctuation.

Physiological and morphological effects of climate change

2019 ◽  
pp. 120-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew E. McKechnie
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Body Mass ◽  
High Temperatures ◽  
Arid Zone ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Heat Events

The direct impacts of higher temperatures on birds are manifested over timescales ranging from minutes and hours to years and decades. Over short timescales, acute exposure to high temperatures can lead to hyperthermia or dehydration, which among arid-zone species occasionally causes catastrophic mortality events. Over intermediate timescales of days to weeks, high temperatures can have chronic sub-lethal effects via body mass loss or reduced nestling growth rates, negatively affecting sev eral fitness components. Long-term effects of warming manifested over years to decades involve declining body mass or changes in appendage size. Key directions for future research include elucidating the role of phenotypic plasticity and epigenetic processes in avian adaptation to climate change, examining the role of stress pathways in mediating responses to heat events, and understanding the consequences of higher temperatures for species that traverse hot regions while migrating.

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