scholarly journals Disorder or a new order: how climate change affects phenological variability

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Stemkovski ◽  
James R. Bell ◽  
Elizabeth R. Ellwood ◽  
Brian D. Inouye ◽  
Hiromi Kobori ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
New Order ◽  
Spring Phenology ◽  
Interacting Species ◽  
First Occurrence ◽  
Phenological Shifts ◽  
Flower Phenology ◽  
Over Time

Advancing spring phenology is a well-documented consequence of anthropogenic climate change, but it is not well understood how climate change will affect the variability of phenology year-to-year. Species' phenological timings reflect adaptation to a broad suite of abiotic needs (e.g. thermal energy) and biotic interactions (e.g. predation and pollination), and changes in patterns of variability may disrupt those adaptations and interactions. Here, we present a geographically and taxonomically broad analysis of phenological shifts, temperature sensitivity, and changes in inter-annual variance encompassing nearly 10,000 long-term phenology time-series representing over 1,000 species across much of the northern hemisphere. We show that early-season species in colder and less seasonal regions were the most sensitive to temperature change and had the least variable phenologies. The timings of leaf-out, flowering, insect first-occurrence, and bird arrival have all shifted earlier and tend to be less variable in warmer years. This has led leaf-out and flower phenology to become moderately but significantly less variable over time. These simultaneous changes in phenological averages and the variation around them have the potential to influence mismatches among interacting species that are difficult to anticipate if shifts in average are studied in isolation.

scholarly journals Phenological variation in annual timing of hibernation and breeding in nearby populations of Arctic ground squirrels

2010 ◽  
Vol 278 (1716) ◽  
pp. 2369-2375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Sheriff ◽  
G. Jim Kenagy ◽  
Melanie Richter ◽  
Trixie Lee ◽  
Øivind Tøien ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Ground Squirrels ◽  
Ecological Communities ◽  
Physiological Mechanisms ◽  
Interacting Species ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Phenological Shifts ◽  
Arctic Ground Squirrels ◽  
Northern Alaska

Ecologists need an empirical understanding of physiological and behavioural adjustments that animals can make in response to seasonal and long-term variations in environmental conditions. Because many species experience trade-offs between timing and duration of one seasonal event versus another and because interacting species may also shift phenologies at different rates, it is possible that, in aggregate, phenological shifts could result in mismatches that disrupt ecological communities. We investigated the timing of seasonal events over 14 years in two Arctic ground squirrel populations living 20 km apart in Northern Alaska. At Atigun River, snow melt occurred 27 days earlier and snow cover began 17 days later than at Toolik Lake. This spatial differential was reflected in significant variation in the timing of most seasonal events in ground squirrels living at the two sites. Although reproductive males ended seasonal torpor on the same date at both sites, Atigun males emerged from hibernation 9 days earlier and entered hibernation 5 days later than Toolik males. Atigun females emerged and bred 13 days earlier and entered hibernation 9 days earlier than those at Toolik. We propose that this variation in phenology over a small spatial scale is likely generated by plasticity of physiological mechanisms that may also provide individuals the ability to respond to variation in environmental conditions over time.

scholarly journals Desert mammal populations are limited by introduced predators rather than future climate change

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (11) ◽  
pp. 170384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron C. Greenville ◽  
Glenda M. Wardle ◽  
Chris R. Dickman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Introduced Predators ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Remote Camera ◽  
Rodent Prey

Climate change is predicted to place up to one in six species at risk of extinction in coming decades, but extinction probability is likely to be influenced further by biotic interactions such as predation. We use structural equation modelling to integrate results from remote camera trapping and long-term (17–22 years) regional-scale (8000 km 2 ) datasets on vegetation and small vertebrates (greater than 38 880 captures) to explore how biotic processes and two key abiotic drivers influence the structure of a diverse assemblage of desert biota in central Australia. We use our models to predict how changes in rainfall and wildfire are likely to influence the cover and productivity of the dominant vegetation and the impacts of predators on their primary rodent prey over a 100-year timeframe. Our results show that, while vegetation cover may decline due to climate change, the strongest negative effect on prey populations in this desert system is top-down suppression from introduced predators.

scholarly journals A Review of Factors to Consider for Permanent Cordon Establishment and Maintenance

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1811
Author(s):  
Patrick O’Brien ◽  
Roberta De Bei ◽  
Mark Sosnowski ◽  
Cassandra Collins
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Vascular System ◽  
Vascular Diseases ◽  
Stress Conditions ◽  
Normal Flow ◽  
Training Techniques ◽  
Long Term Consequences ◽  
Over Time

Decisions made during the establishment and reworking of permanent cordon arms may have long-term consequences on vineyard health and longevity. This review aims to summarise several of the important considerations that must be taken into account during cordon establishment and maintenance. Commonly practiced cordon training techniques such as wrapping developing arms tightly around the cordon wire may result in a constriction of the vascular system, becoming worse over time and disrupting the normal flow of water and nutrients. Studies have shown that other factors of cordon decline such as the onset of vascular diseases may be influenced by pre-existing stress conditions. Such conditions could be further exacerbated by water and heat stress events, an important consideration as these scenarios become more common under the influence of climate change. Vineyard sustainability may be improved by adopting cordon training techniques which promote long-term vitality and avoid a reduction in vine defence response and the costly, premature reworking of vines.

scholarly journals Feedback of coastal marshes to climate change: Long‐term phenological shifts

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 6785-6797 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Mo ◽  
Michael S. Kearney ◽  
R. Eugene Turner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coastal Marshes ◽  
Phenological Shifts

Climate Change and Phenological Mismatch in Trophic Interactions Among Plants, Insects, and Vertebrates

2018 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne S. Renner ◽  
Constantin M. Zohner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Trophic Interactions ◽  
Life Cycles ◽  
Population Variation ◽  
Day Length ◽  
Interacting Species ◽  
Phenological Mismatch ◽  
Mutualistic Interactions ◽  
Negative Impacts

Phenological mismatch results when interacting species change the timing of regularly repeated phases in their life cycles at different rates. We review whether this continuously ongoing phenomenon, also known as trophic asynchrony, is becoming more common under ongoing rapid climate change. In antagonistic trophic interactions, any mismatch will have negative impacts for only one of the species, whereas in mutualistic interactions, both partners are expected to suffer. Trophic mismatch is therefore expected to last for evolutionarily short periods, perhaps only a few seasons, adding to the difficulty of attributing it to climate change, which requires long-term data. So far, the prediction that diverging phenologies linked to climate change will cause mismatch is most clearly met in antagonistic interactions at high latitudes in the Artic. There is limited evidence of phenological mismatch in mutualistic interactions, possibly because of strong selection on mutualists to have co-adapted phenological strategies. The study of individual plasticity, population variation, and the genetic bases for phenological strategies is in its infancy. Recent work on woody plants revealed the large imprint of historic climate change on temperature, chilling, and day-length thresholds used by different species to synchronize their phenophases, which in the Northern Hemisphere has led to biogeographic phenological regions in which long-lived plants have adapted to particular interannual and intermillennial amplitudes of climate change.

scholarly journals Priority effects and season length shape long-term competition dynamics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heng-Xing Zou ◽  
Volker H. W. Rudolf
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Arrival Time ◽  
Stage Structure ◽  
Priority Effects ◽  
Season Length ◽  
Priority Effect ◽  
Phenological Shifts

AbstractThe relative arrival time of species often affects species interactions within a community, contributing to priority effects. Recent studies on phenological shifts under climate change have generated renewed interest on priority effects, but their role in shaping long-term dynamics of seasonal communities is poorly resolved. Here we use a general stage-structure competition model to determine how different types of priority effects influence long-term coexistence of species in seasonal systems. We show that while shifts in mean and variance of relative arrival time can alter persistence and coexistence conditions of species, these effects depend on season length and type of priority effect. In “slow” systems with one or a few cohorts per season, changes in mean and seasonal variation of relative arrival time strongly altered species persistence through trait-mediated priority effects. In contrast, competition outcome in “fast” systems is largely determined by numeric priority effects due to interaction between many overlapping generations. These results suggest that empirically observed priority effects may arise from fundamentally different mechanisms, and that fast-generating systems may be less impacted by seasonal variation in phenology. Our model provides important insight into how natural communities respond to increasing variation in phenology over seasons under climate change.

scholarly journals Coherence among the Northern Hemisphere land, cryosphere, and ocean responses to natural variability and anthropogenic forcing during the satellite era

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 717-734 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alemu Gonsamo ◽  
Jing M. Chen ◽  
Drew T. Shindell ◽  
Gregory P. Asner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Natural Variability ◽  
Spring Phenology ◽  
Anthropogenic Forcing ◽  
Recent Climate

Abstract. A lack of long-term measurements across Earth's biological and physical systems has made observation-based detection and attribution of climate change impacts to anthropogenic forcing and natural variability difficult. Here we explore coherence among land, cryosphere and ocean responses to recent climate change using 3 decades (1980–2012) of observational satellite and field data throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Our results show coherent interannual variability among snow cover, spring phenology, solar radiation, Scandinavian Pattern, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The interannual variability of the atmospheric peak-to-trough CO2 amplitude is mostly impacted by temperature-mediated effects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA), whereas CO2 concentration is affected by Polar Pattern control on sea ice extent dynamics. This is assuming the trend in anthropogenic CO2 emission remains constant, or the interannual changes in the trends are negligible. Our analysis suggests that sea ice decline-related CO2 release may outweigh increased CO2 uptake through longer growing seasons and higher temperatures. The direct effects of variation in solar radiation and leading teleconnections, at least in part via their impacts on temperature, dominate the interannual variability of land, cryosphere and ocean indicators. Our results reveal a coherent long-term changes in multiple physical and biological systems that are consistent with anthropogenic forcing of Earth's climate and inconsistent with natural drivers.

Plasticity in female timing may explain current shifts in breeding phenology of a North American songbird

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abigail A. Kimmitt ◽  
Daniel J. Becker ◽  
Sara N. Diller ◽  
Nicole M. Gerlach ◽  
Kimberly A. Rosvall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Relative Fitness ◽  
List Type ◽  
Reproductive Timing ◽  
Breeding Phenology ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Bird Populations ◽  
Sedentary Population ◽  
Phenological Shifts ◽  
Over Time

AbstractClimate change has driven changes in breeding phenology. Identifying the magnitude of phenological shifts and whether selection in response to climate change drives these shifts is key for determining species’ reproductive success and persistence in a changing world.We investigated reproductive timing in a primarily sedentary population of the dark-eyed junco (Junco hyemalis) over 32 years. We predicted that juncos would breed earlier in warmer springs in response to selection favouring earlier breeding.To test this prediction, we compared the annual median date for reproductive onset (i.e., egg one date) to monthly spring temperatures and examined evidence for selection favouring earlier breeding and for plasticity in timing.Egg one dates occurred earlier over time, with the timing of breeding advancing up to 24 days over the 32-year period. Breeding timing also strongly covaried with maximum April temperature. We found significant overall selection favouring earlier breeding (i.e., higher relative fitness with earlier egg one dates) that became stronger over time, but strength of selection was not predicted by temperature. Lastly, individual females exhibited plastic responses to temperature across years.Our findings provide further evidence that phenotypic plasticity plays a crucial role in driving phenological shifts in response to climate change. For multi-brooded bird populations, a warming climate might extend the breeding season and provide more opportunities to re-nest rather than drive earlier breeding in response to potential phenological mismatches. However, as plasticity will likely be insufficient for long-term survival in the face of climate change, further research in understanding the mechanisms of female reproductive timing will be essential for forecasting the effects of climate change on population persistence.

scholarly journals Coherence among the Northern Hemisphere land, cryosphere, and ocean responses to natural variability and anthropogenic forcing during the satellite era

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Gonsamo ◽  
J. M. Chen ◽  
D. T. Shindell ◽  
G. P. Asner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Natural Variability ◽  
Spring Phenology ◽  
Anthropogenic Forcing ◽  
Recent Climate

Abstract. A lack of long-term measurements across Earth's biological and physical systems has made observation-based detection and attribution of climate change impacts to anthropogenic forcing and natural variability difficult. Here we explore coherence among land, cryosphere and ocean responses to recent climate change using three decades (1980−2012) of observational satellite and field data throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Our results show coherent interannual variability among snow cover, spring phenology and thaw, solar radiation, Scandinavian Pattern, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The interannual variability of the atmospheric peak-to-trough CO2 amplitude is mostly impacted by temperature-mediated effects of ENSO, North American Pattern and East Atlantic Pattern, whereas CO2 concentration is affected by Polar Pattern control on sea ice extent dynamics. This is assuming the trend in anthropogenic CO2 emission remains constant, or the interannual changes in the trends are negligible. Our analysis suggests that sea ice decline-related CO2 release may outweigh increased CO2 uptake through longer growing seasons and higher temperatures. The direct effects of variation in solar radiation and leading teleconnections, at least in part via their impacts on temperature, dominate the interannual variability of land, cryosphere and ocean indicators. Our results reveal a coherent long-term changes in multiple physical and biological systems that are consistent with anthropogenic forcing of Earth's climate and inconsistent with natural drivers.

scholarly journals Phenological shifts of native and invasive species under climate change: insights from the Boechera–Lythrum model

2017 ◽  
Vol 372 (1712) ◽  
pp. 20160032 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert I. Colautti ◽  
Jon Ågren ◽  
Jill T. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Rocky Mountain ◽  
Flowering Phenology ◽  
Lythrum Salicaria ◽  
Genetic Constraints ◽  
Floral Phenology ◽  
Phenological Shifts ◽  
Delayed Flowering

Warmer and drier climates have shifted phenologies of many species. However, the magnitude and direction of phenological shifts vary widely among taxa, and it is often unclear when shifts are adaptive or how they affect long-term viability. Here, we model evolution of flowering phenology based on our long-term research of two species exhibiting opposite shifts in floral phenology: Lythrum salicaria , which is invasive in North America, and the sparse Rocky Mountain native Boechera stricta . Genetic constraints are similar in both species, but differences in the timing of environmental conditions that favour growth lead to opposite phenological shifts under climate change. As temperatures increase, selection is predicted to favour earlier flowering in native B. stricta while reducing population viability, even if populations adapt rapidly to changing environmental conditions. By contrast, warming is predicted to favour delayed flowering in both native and introduced L. salicaria populations while increasing long-term viability. Relaxed selection from natural enemies in invasive L. salicaria is predicted to have little effect on flowering time but a large effect on reproductive fitness. Our approach highlights the importance of understanding ecological and genetic constraints to predict the ecological consequences of evolutionary responses to climate change on contemporary timescales. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences’.

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