scholarly journals Prevention of Influenza Pandemic by Multiple Control Strategies

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Ullah ◽  
Gul Zaman ◽  
Saeed Islam
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Antiviral Treatment ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Numerical Techniques ◽  
Multiple Control ◽  
Control Functions ◽  
Transmission Of Disease

We present the prevention of influenza pandemic by using multiple control functions. First, we adjust the control functions in the pandemic model, then we show the existence of the optimal control problem, and, by using both analytical and numerical techniques, we investigate cost-effective control effects for the prevention of transmission of disease. To do this, we use four control functions, the first one for increasing the effect of vaccination, the second one for the strategies to isolate infected individuals, and the last two for the antiviral treatment to control clinically infectious and hospitalization cases, respectively. We completely characterized the optimal control and compute the numerical solution of the optimality system by using an iterative method.

scholarly journals Multiple Control Strategies for Prevention of Avian Influenza Pandemic

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Ullah ◽  
Gul Zaman ◽  
Saeed Islam
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Avian Influenza ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Antiviral Treatment ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Multiple Control ◽  
Control Functions ◽  
The Cost

We present the prevention of avian influenza pandemic by adjusting multiple control functions in the human-to-human transmittable avian influenza model. First we show the existence of the optimal control problem; then by using both analytical and numerical techniques, we investigate the cost-effective control effects for the prevention of transmission of disease. To do this, we use three control functions, the effort to reduce the number of contacts with human infected with mutant avian influenza, the antiviral treatment of infected individuals, and the effort to reduce the number of infected birds. We completely characterized the optimal control and compute numerical solution of the optimality system by using an iterative method.

scholarly journals Prevention of Leptospirosis Infected Vector and Human Population by Multiple Control Variables

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Altaf Khan ◽  
Saeed Islam ◽  
Sher Afzal Khan ◽  
Ilyas Khan ◽  
Sharidan Shafie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Optimal Control Problem ◽  
Control Problem ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Farm Animals ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Multiple Control ◽  
Control Variables ◽  
Control Functions

Leptospirosis is an infectious disease that damages the liver and kidneys, found mainly in dogs and farm animals and caused by bacteria. In this paper, we present the optimal control problem applied to a dynamical leptospirosis infected vector and human population by using multiple control variables. First, we show the existence of the control problem and then use analytical and numerical techniques to investigate the existence cost effective control efforts for prevention of indirect and direct transmission of this disease. In order to do this, we consider three control functions two for human and one for vector population. We completely characterize the optimal control problem and compute the numerical solution of the optimality system using an iterative method.

scholarly journals Analysis of Control Interventions against Malaria in communities with Limited Resources

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-91
Author(s):  
E.A. Bakare ◽  
B.O. Onasanya ◽  
S. Hoskova-Mayerova ◽  
O. Olubosede
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Malaria Transmission ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Indoor Residual Spraying ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Limited Resources ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Bed Nets ◽  
Multiple Control ◽  
Potential Impact

Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyse the potential impact of multiple current interventions in communities with limited resources in order to obtain optimal control strategies and provide a basis for future predictions of the most effective control measures against the spread of malaria. We developed a population-based model of malaria transmission dynamics to investigate the effectiveness of five different interventions. The model captured both the human and the mosquito compartments. The control interventions considered were: educational campaigns to mobilise people for diagnostic test and treatment and to sleep under bed nets; treatment through mass drug administration; indoor residual spraying(IRS) with insecticide to reduce malaria transmission; insecticide treated net (ITN) to reduce morbidity; and regular destruction of mosquito breeding sites to reduce the number of new mosquito and bites/contact at dusks and dawn. Analysis of the potential impact of the multiple control interventions were carried out and the optimal control strategies that minimized the number of infected human and mosquito and the cost of applying the various control interventions were determined.

Global dynamics and optimal control of an influenza model with vaccination, media coverage and treatment

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (05) ◽  
pp. 1750068 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lianwen Wang ◽  
Zhijun Liu ◽  
Dashun Xu ◽  
Xinan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Antiviral Treatment ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
The Cost

In this work, in order to identify the most effective measure and combinations of several measures to control influenza spread, we propose an SVEIAR influenza model with imperfect vaccination, media coverage and antiviral treatment. The global dynamics of the model is explored. Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number and the endemic equilibrium is conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of influenza control measures. Furthermore, an optimal control problem incorporating the three measures is formulated to design optimal control strategies for influenza. The cost-effectiveness analysis reveals that combining the three measures is the most cost-effective among the strategies considered. Numerical simulations show that media propaganda can play a dominant role in curbing influenza transmission.

scholarly journals Global Stability and Optimal Control of Dengue with Two Coexisting Virus Serotypes

MATEMATIKA ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 149-170
Author(s):  
Afeez Abidemi ◽  
Rohanin Ahmad ◽  
Nur Arina Bazilah Aziz
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Global Stability ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Boundary Equilibrium

This study presents a two-strain deterministic model which incorporates Dengvaxia vaccine and insecticide (adulticide) control strategies to forecast the dynamics of transmission and control of dengue in Madeira Island if there is a new outbreak with a different virus serotypes after the first outbreak in 2012. We construct suitable Lyapunov functions to investigate the global stability of the disease-free and boundary equilibrium points. Qualitative analysis of the model which incorporates time-varying controls with the specific goal of minimizing dengue disease transmission and the costs related to the control implementation by employing the optimal control theory is carried out. Three strategies, namely the use of Dengvaxia vaccine only, application of adulticide only, and the combination of Dengvaxia vaccine and adulticide are considered for the controls implementation. The necessary conditions are derived for the optimal control of dengue. We examine the impacts of the control strategies on the dynamics of infected humans and mosquito population by simulating the optimality system. The disease-freeequilibrium is found to be globally asymptotically stable whenever the basic reproduction numbers associated with virus serotypes 1 and j (j 2 {2, 3, 4}), respectively, satisfy R01,R0j 1, and the boundary equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the related R0i (i = 1, j) is above one. It is shown that the strategy based on the combination of Dengvaxia vaccine and adulticide helps in an effective control of dengue spread in the Island.

scholarly journals Genetic Variations in Bionomics of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) Mosquito Population in Minna, North Central Nigeria

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. IJIS.S32516 ◽  
Author(s):  
Azubuike C. Ukubuiwe ◽  
Israel K. Olayemi ◽  
Aisha I. Jibrin
Keyword(s):  
Culex Quinquefasciatus ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Preliminary Investigation ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Immature Stage ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Mosquito Vector ◽  
North Central ◽  
Mosquito Vector Control ◽  
Vectorial Competence

The need to have an improved knowledge on the bioecology of Culex quinquefasciatus, a prerequisite in the development of cost-effective control strategies, has informed the present preliminary investigation to put in better perspective variations that exist in the egg rafts of the species. Freshly laid egg rafts were collected and incubated at ambient temperature in well-labeled plastic trays. The results showed overall inconsistency in all indices monitored for the egg rafts. Generally, survivorship was high for the species. All immature stage and adult parameters measured varied significantly among the egg rafts and between/within sexes of the species. Therefore, this study suggests the presence of inherent variation in the bionomics of egg rafts of C. quinquefasciatus, probably influenced by the environment and hence underscores the need for additional studies to further elucidate the roles of genetics and environment in vectorial competence of the species, in order to develop robust sustainable mosquito vector control protocols.

scholarly journals Estimating the Optimal Control of Zoonotic Visceral Leishmaniasis by the Use of a Mathematical Model

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laila Massad Ribas ◽  
Vera Lucia Zaher ◽  
Helio Junji Shimozako ◽  
Eduardo Massad
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Optimal Control ◽  
Visceral Leishmaniasis ◽  
Vector Control ◽  
Control Strategy ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Alternative Control ◽  
Alternative Strategies ◽  
Zoonotic Visceral Leishmaniasis

We argue that the strategy of culling infected dogs is not the most efficient way to control zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (ZVL) and that, in the presence of alternative control strategies with better potential results, official programs of compulsory culling adopted by some countries are inefficient and unethical. We base our arguments on a mathematical model for the study of control strategies against ZVL, which allows the comparison of the efficacies of 5, alternative strategies. We demonstrate that the culling program, previously questioned on both theoretical and practical grounds is the less effective control strategy. In addition, we show that vector control and the use of insecticide-impregnated dog collars are, by far, more efficient at reducing the prevalence of ZVL in humans.

scholarly journals Analysis of COVID-19 and comorbidity co-infection Model with Optimal Control

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Omame ◽  
Ndolane Sene ◽  
Ikenna Nometa ◽  
Cosmas Ifeanyi Nwakanma ◽  
Emmanuel Ugochukwu Nwafor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Detection Rate ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Cerebrovascular Diseases ◽  
Infection Model ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Effective Contact ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Increased Susceptibility

The new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection is a double challenge for people infected with comorbidities such as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and diabetes. Comorbidities have been reported to be risk factors for the complications of COVID-19. In this work, we develop and analyze a mathematical model for the dynamics of COVID-19 infection in order to assess the impacts of prior comorbidity on COVID-19 complications and COVID-19 re-infection. The model is simulated using data relevant to the dynamics of the diseases in Lagos, Nigeria, making predictions for the attainment of peak periods in the presence or absence of comorbidity. The model is shown to undergo the phenomenon of backward bifurcation caused by the parameter accounting for increased susceptibility to COVID-19 infection by comorbid susceptibles as well as the rate of re-infection by those who have recovered from a previous COVID-19 infection. Sensitivity analysis of the model when the population of individuals co-infected with COVID-19 and comorbidity is used as response function revealed that the top ranked parameters that drive the dynamics of the co-infection model are the effective contact rate for COVID-19 transmission, βcv, the parameter accounting for increased susceptibility to COVID-19 by comorbid susceptibles, χcm, the comorbidity development rate, θcm, the detection rate for singly infected and co-infected individuals, η1 and η2, as well as the recovery rate from COVID-19 for co-infected individuals, ϕi2. Simulations of the model reveal that the cumulative confirmed cases (without comorbidity) may get up to 180,000 after 200 days, if the hyper susceptibility rate of comorbid susceptibles is as high as 1.2 per day. Also, the cumulative confirmed cases (including those co-infected with comorbidity) may be as high as 1000,000 cases by the end of November, 2020 if the re-infection rates for COVID-19 is 0.1 per day. It may be worse than this if the re-infection rates increase higher. Moreover, if policies are strictly put in place to step down the probability of COVID-19 infection by comorbid susceptibles to as low as 0.4 per day and step up the detection rate for singly infected individuals to 0.7 per day, then the reproduction number can be brought very low below one, and COVID-19 infection eliminated from the population. In addition, optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis of the model reveal that the the strategy that prevents COVID-19 infection by comorbid susceptibles has the least ICER and is the most cost-effective of all the control strategies for the prevention of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Nosocomial infections in neonatal intensive care units: Cost-effective control strategies in resource-limited countries

2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-132
Author(s):  
SN Uwaezuoke ◽  
HA Obu
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care Unit ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Hand Hygiene ◽  
Neonatal Intensive Care Unit ◽  
Nosocomial Infections ◽  
Neonatal Intensive Care ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Resource Limited

Background: Nosocomial infections or hospital-acquired infectionsconstitute a global health problem. They lead to significant morbidity and mortality in both developed and resource-limited countries. The neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) is a suitable environment for disseminating these infections; underscoring the need for preventive intervention measures.Objectives: This review aims to highlight the global burden of nosocomialinfections in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs), to discuss their epidemiology and clinical spectrum, as well as the costeffective control strategies in resource-limited settings.Sources: Sources of information were from Google searches andPubMed- linked articles using the key words- nosocomial infections,neonatal intensive care unit, control. Related articles from hard copiesof medical literature and journals were also gathered.Results: Although paucity of data exists on the incidence of nosocomialinfections in NICUs in developing countries, reports from developedcountries indicate a range of 6% to 25%. Much higher figures were noted in some developing countries. Several risk factors for nosocomial infections were identified but varied in different NICUs surveyed. Effective control strategies have been recommended but hand washing or hand hygiene appears universally applicable in both developed and resource-limitedcountries. Economic analyses of these strategies in developed countrieshave established their costeffectiveness while the adaptability of hand hygiene program to resource-limited settings has been demonstrated in a World Health Organization pilot study in sub- Saharan Africa.Conclusion: Hand washing or hand hygiene by health-care personnelremains the most important evidence-based and cost-effective controlstrategy for the spread of nosocomial infections in NICUs in resource-limited countries.Key words: nosocomial infections; neonatal intensive care unit;control.

Benefits and feasibility of local elimination of possum populations

2006 ◽  
Vol 33 (7) ◽  
pp. 605 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. R. Morgan ◽  
G. Nugent ◽  
B. Warburton
Keyword(s):  
Control Strategies ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Population Characteristics ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Brushtail Possum ◽  
Control Approach ◽  
Initial Cost ◽  
Regulatory Status ◽  
The Cost

Introduction of the brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) to New Zealand has resulted in serious ecological and economic impacts and considerable control efforts. Recovery of possum populations after control occurs through immigration from adjacent areas and breeding of survivors and immigrants. If complete local elimination can be achieved, the recovery of populations will depend solely on immigration and therefore should be substantially slowed (particularly in very large areas). To compare the cost-effectiveness of four control strategies over the long term (60 years), we constructed a deterministic bioeconomic model based on 23 variables describing population characteristics, sizes of the sink (i.e. area controlled) and source (of reinfestation) areas, and costs. Sensitivity analysis showed that the most influential variables related primarily to cost and effectiveness of control, whereas factors describing immigration after control had relatively little influence. When the most influential variables were varied, the model predicted that local elimination of possums followed by ‘perimeter’ control is likely to be a more cost-effective control strategy under most scenarios than the current ‘knockdown-then-maintenance-control’ approach. Possum-control technology and its application have improved greatly in the last three decades such that it now appears that local elimination is, technically, a realistic goal, and is possibly already being achieved occasionally. Constraining factors include unreliable monitoring/detection at ultralow densities, inappropriate selection and use of control options, lack of incentive under the present contracting system, initial cost, contracting capacity, and the future regulatory status of poisons. However, these difficulties can be overcome, facilitating the adoption of long-term local elimination strategies that are better suited to managing possum populations in perpetuity.

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