scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on the Characteristics of Indian Summer Monsoon Onset

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Savita Patwardhan ◽  
Ashwini Kulkarni ◽  
K. Krishna Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Monsoon Onset ◽  
Wave Radiation ◽  
Onset Date ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Summer Monsoon Onset ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Impact

A high resolution regional climate modeling system, known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climate for Impact Studies), developed by Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK, is applied for Indian subcontinent to assess the impact of climate change on the summer monsoon onset characteristics. The present day simulation (1961–1990) with PRECIS is evaluated for the characteristics of onset over Kerala, southernmost part of India, where the monsoon sets in over Indian landmass. The meteorological parameters like precipitation, outgoing long wave radiation (OLR), and low level winds are analysed to study the monsoon onset over Kerala. The model is able to capture the sudden and sharp increase of rainfall associated with the onset. The rapid built-up of convective activity over the southeastern Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal is well represented by the model. PRECIS simulations, under scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols, are analysed to study the likely changes in the onset characteristics in future, towards the end of present century (2071–2100). The analysis does not indicate significant difference in the mean onset dates in A2 and B2 scenarios. However, the variability of onset date is likely to be more towards the end of the 21st century especially in A2 scenario.

Impact of climate change on water requirements and growth of potato in different climatic zones of Montenegro

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 657-671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirko Knežević ◽  
Ljubomir Zivotić ◽  
Nataša Čereković ◽  
Ana Topalović ◽  
Nikola Koković ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Viable Solution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on potato cultivation in Montenegro was assessed. Three scenarios (A1B, A1Bs and A2) for 2001–2030, 2071–2100 and 2071–2100, respectively, were generated by a regional climate model and compared with the baseline period 1961–1990. The results indicated an increase of temperature during the summer season from 1.3 to 4.8 °C in the mountain region and from 1 to 3.4 °C in the coastal zone. The precipitation decreased between 5 and 50% depending on the scenario, region and season. The changes in temperature and precipitation influenced phenology, yield and water needs. The impact was more pronounced in the coastal areas than in the mountain regions. The growing season was shortened 13.6, 22.9 and 29.7 days for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. The increase of irrigation requirement was 4.0, 19.5 and 7.3 mm for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. For the baseline conditions, yield reduction under rainfed cultivation was lower than 30%. For A1B, A1Bs and A2 scenarios, yield reductions were 31.0 ± 8.2, 36.3 ± 11.6 and 34.1 ± 10.9%, respectively. Possible adaptation measures include shifting of production to the mountain (colder) areas and irrigation application. Rainfed cultivation remains a viable solution when the anticipation of sowing is adopted.

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on Material Degradation Criteria in Heritage over Iran: Regional Climate Model Evaluation

2020 ◽  
Vol 172 ◽  
pp. 02006
Author(s):  
Hamed Hedayatnia ◽  
Marijke Steeman ◽  
Nathan Van Den Bossche
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Salt Crystallization ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
The Impact

Understanding how climate change accelerates or slows down the process of material deterioration is the first step towards assessing adaptive approaches for the preservation of historical heritage. Analysis of the climate change effects on the degradation risk assessment parameters like salt crystallization cycles is of crucial importance when considering mitigating actions. Due to the vulnerability of cultural heritage in Iran to climate change, the impact of this phenomenon on basic parameters plus variables more critical to building damage like salt crystallization index needs to be analyzed. Regional climate modelling projections can be used to asses the impact of climate change effects on heritage. The output of two different regional climate models, the ALARO-0 model (Ghent University-RMI, Belgium) and the REMO model (HZG-GERICS, Germany), is analyzed to find out which model is more adapted to the region. So the focus of this research is mainly on the evaluation to determine the reliability of both models over the region. For model validation, a comparison between model data and observations was performed in 4 different climate zones for 30 years to find out how reliable these models are in the field of building pathology.

scholarly journals Decadal-Scale Variation of South Asian Summer Monsoon Onset and Its Relationship with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (13) ◽  
pp. 5163-5173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takeshi Watanabe ◽  
Koji Yamazaki
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Monsoon Onset ◽  
Onset Date ◽  
South Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Summer Monsoon Onset ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Northern Pacific

The variation of the summer monsoon onset over South Asia was investigated by using long-term data of the onset over Kerala, India, during the 64-yr period from 1948 to 2011. It was found that the onset over Kerala shows variation on a multidecadal scale. In early-onset years, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly over the northern Pacific Ocean was very similar to the negative Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The stationary wave train related to the negative PDO reaches into central Asia and generates a warm anomaly, thereby intensifying the land–sea thermal contrast, which promotes summer monsoon onset over South and Southeast Asia. The correlation between the onset date over Kerala and the PDO has strengthened since 1976. Analysis of zonal wind in the upper-level troposphere for the period 1958–2002 indicates that the change in the correlation is related to the change in the wave train path. The wave train propagating from the northern Pacific Ocean to western Russia could propagate eastward more easily in 1976–2002 than in 1958–75.

Impact of climate change on the future of tourism areas in the Canary Islands

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Judit Carrillo ◽  
Albano González ◽  
Juan C. Pérez ◽  
Francisco J. Expósito ◽  
Juan P. Díaz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Canary Islands ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Leisure Activities ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

<p>Tourism is an essential sector of the economy of the Canary Islands. Tourism Climate Index (TCI) and Holiday Climate Index (HCI) are good indicators of environmental conditions for leisure activities. Regional climate model (RCM) has been addressed to analyze the impact of climate change on the indices of tourist areas. The initial and boundary conditions for future scenarios are prescribed through three CMIP5 models (GFDL, IPSL and MIROC)  surface and lateral boundary conditions within the Meteorological Research and Forecast (WRF), with a high resolution, 3x3 km. Two time periods (2030 – 2059, and 2070-2099) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) are considered. Tourism indicators are projected to improve significantly during the winter and shoulder seasons, but will worsen in the summer months, including October, in the southeast, which is where hotels are currently located.</p>

scholarly journals Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Water Balance Using APEX-Paddy Model

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 852 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Kamruzzaman ◽  
Syewoon Hwang ◽  
Soon-Kun Choi ◽  
Jaepil Cho ◽  
Inhong Song ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Paddy Water ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Impact

This research aims to assess the impact of climate change on water balance components in irrigated paddy cultivation. The APEX-Paddy model, which is the modified version of the APEX (Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender) model for paddy ecosystems, was used to evaluate the paddy water balance components considering future climate scenarios. The bias-corrected future projections of climate data from 29 GCMs (General Circulation Models) were applied to the APEX-Paddy model simulation. The study area (Jeonju station) forecasts generally show increasing patterns in rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature with a rate of up to 23%, 27%, and 45%, respectively. The hydrological simulations suggest over-proportional runoff–rainfall and under-proportional percolation and deep-percolation–rainfall relationships for the modeled climate scenarios. Climate change scenarios showed that the evapotranspiration amount was estimated to decrease compared to the baseline period (1976–2005). The evaporation was likely to increase by 0.12%, 2.21%, and 7.81% during the 2010s, 2040s, and 2070s, respectively under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5, due to the increase in temperature. The change in evaporation was more pronounced in RCP8.5 than the RCP4.5 scenario. The transpiration is expected to reduce by 2.30% and 12.62% by the end of the century (the 2070s) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, due to increased CO2 concentration. The irrigation water demand is generally expected to increase over time in the future under both climate scenarios. Compared to the baseline, the most significant change is expected to increase in the 2040s by 3.21% under RCP8.5, while the lowest increase was found by 0.36% in 2010s under RCP4.5. The increment of irrigation does not show a significant difference; the rate of increase in the irrigation was found to be greater RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 except in the 2070s. The findings of this study can play a significant role as the basis for evaluating the vulnerability of rice production concerning water management against climate change.

scholarly journals Using a Hydrologic Model to Assess the Performance of Regional Climate Models in a Semi-Arid Watershed in Brazil

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Santos ◽  
Felizardo. Rocha ◽  
Tiago Ramos ◽  
Lincoln Alves ◽  
Marcos Mateus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

This study assessed the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Paraguaçu river basin, northeastern Brazil. Hydrological impact simulations were conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for 2020–2040. Precipitation and surface air temperature projections from two Regional Climate Models (Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5) based on IPCC5—RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used as inputs after first applying two bias correction methods (linear scaling—LS and distribution mapping—DM). The analysis of the impact of climate change on streamflow was done by comparing the maximum, average and reference (Q90) flows of the simulated and observed streamflow records. This study found that both methods were able to correct the climate projection bias, but the DM method showed larger distortion when applied to future scenarios. Climate projections from the Eta-HadGEM2-ES (LS) model showed significant reductions of mean monthly streamflow for all time periods under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The Eta-MIROC5 (LS) model showed a lower reduction of the simulated mean monthly streamflow under RCP 4.5 and a decrease of streamflow under RCP 8.5, similar to the Eta-HadGEM2-ES model results. The results of this study provide information for guiding future water resource management in the Paraguaçu River Basin and show that the bias correction algorithm also plays a significant role when assessing climate model estimates and their applicability to hydrological modelling.

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