scholarly journals SARIMA-Orthogonal Polynomial Curve Fitting Model for Medium-Term Load Forecasting

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Herui Cui ◽  
Pengbang Wei ◽  
Yupei Mu ◽  
Xu Peng
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Seasonal Component ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Model Order Selection ◽  
Polynomial Curve ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Hp Filter

Seasonal component has been a key factor in time series modeling for medium-term electric load forecasting. In this paper, a seasonal-ARIMA model is developed, but the parameters of the SAR and the SMA turn out to be quite nonsignificant in most cases during the model order selection. To address this issue, the hybrid time series model based on the HP filter is utilized to extract the spectrum sequences with different frequencies and analyze interactions among various factors. Finally, an integrative forecast is made for the electricity consumption from January to November in 2014. The empirical results demonstrate that the method with HP filter could reduce the relative error caused by the interaction between the trend component and the seasonal component.

scholarly journals Forecasting Irregular Seasonal Power Consumption. An Application to a Hot-Dip Galvanizing Process

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 75
Author(s):  
Oscar Trull ◽  
Juan Carlos García-Díaz ◽  
Angel Peiró-Signes
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Seasonal Component ◽  
Real Situation ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Sufficient Energy ◽  
Discrete Interval ◽  
Related Time Series ◽  
Strong Seasonality ◽  
Grid Management

Distribution companies use time series to predict electricity consumption. Forecasting techniques based on statistical models or artificial intelligence are used. Reliable forecasts are required for efficient grid management in terms of both supply and capacity. One common underlying feature of most demand–related time series is a strong seasonality component. However, in some cases, the electricity demanded by a process presents an irregular seasonal component, which prevents any type of forecast. In this article, we evaluated forecasting methods based on the use of multiple seasonal models: ARIMA, Holt-Winters models with discrete interval moving seasonality, and neural networks. The models are explained and applied to a real situation, for a node that feeds a galvanizing factory. The zinc hot-dip galvanizing process is widely used in the automotive sector for the protection of steel against corrosion. It requires enormous energy consumption, and this has a direct impact on companies’ income statements. In addition, it significantly affects energy distribution companies, as these companies must provide for instant consumption in their supply lines to ensure sufficient energy is distributed both for the process and for all the other consumers. The results show a substantial increase in the accuracy of predictions, which contributes to a better management of the electrical distribution.

scholarly journals ARIMAX Model for Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 2786-2790
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Electrical Load ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Exogenous Variables ◽  
Time Series Modelling ◽  
Electrical Load Forecasting

The scope for ARIMAX approach to forecast short term load has gained a lot of significant importance.In this paper, ARIMAXmodel which is an extension of ARIMA model with exogenous variables is used for STLF on a time series data of Karnataka State Demand pattern. The forecasting accuracy of ARIMA model is enhanced by taking into consideration hour of the day and day of the week as exogenous variables for ARIMAX model. Forecasting performance is thus improved by considering these significant load dependent factors. The forecasted results indicate that the proposed model is more accurate according to mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) obtained during the testing period of the model. As the historical load data are available on the databases of the utility, researches in the areas of time series modelling are ongoing for electrical load forecasting. In the proposed paper real time demand data available on Karnataka Power Transmission Corporation Ltd. (KPTCL) website is taken to develop and test the proposedload forecasting model.The power utility system operational costs and its securitydepend on the load forecasting for next few hours. Regional load forecasting helps in the accurate management performance of generation of power plant. Today’s deregulated markets have great demand for prediction of electrical loads, required for generating companies. There has been tremendous growth in electric power demand and hence it is very much essentialfor the utility sectors to have theirdemand information in advance.

scholarly journals ARIMA Models in Electrical Load Forecasting and Their Robustness to Noise

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (23) ◽  
pp. 7952
Author(s):  
Ewa Chodakowska ◽  
Joanicjusz Nazarko ◽  
Łukasz Nazarko
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Model Identification ◽  
Electrical Load ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Electrical Load Forecasting ◽  
The Impact

The paper addresses the problem of insufficient knowledge on the impact of noise on the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model identification. The work offers a simulation-based solution to the analysis of the tolerance to noise of ARIMA models in electrical load forecasting. In the study, an idealized ARIMA model obtained from real load data of the Polish power system was disturbed by noise of different levels. The model was then re-identified, its parameters were estimated, and new forecasts were calculated. The experiment allowed us to evaluate the robustness of ARIMA models to noise in their ability to predict electrical load time series. It could be concluded that the reaction of the ARIMA model to random disturbances of the modeled time series was relatively weak. The limiting noise level at which the forecasting ability of the model collapsed was determined. The results highlight the key role of the data preprocessing stage in data mining and learning. They contribute to more accurate decision making in an uncertain environment, help to shape energy policy, and have implications for the sustainability and reliability of power systems.

scholarly journals Load forecasting of refrigerated display cabinet based on CEEMD–IPSO–LSTM combined model

Open Physics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 360-374
Author(s):  
Yuan Pei ◽  
Lei Zhenglin ◽  
Zeng Qinghui ◽  
Wu Yixiao ◽  
Lu Yanli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Combined Model ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Consumption Reduction

Abstract The load of the showcase is a nonlinear and unstable time series data, and the traditional forecasting method is not applicable. Deep learning algorithms are introduced to predict the load of the showcase. Based on the CEEMD–IPSO–LSTM combination algorithm, this paper builds a refrigerated display cabinet load forecasting model. Compared with the forecast results of other models, it finally proves that the CEEMD–IPSO–LSTM model has the highest load forecasting accuracy, and the model’s determination coefficient is 0.9105, which is obviously excellent. Compared with other models, the model constructed in this paper can predict the load of showcases, which can provide a reference for energy saving and consumption reduction of display cabinet.

scholarly journals Hybrid Model for Time Series of Complex Structure with ARIMA Components

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1122
Author(s):  
Oksana Mandrikova ◽  
Nadezhda Fetisova ◽  
Yuriy Polozov
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Complex Structure ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Ionospheric Parameter ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Complicated Structure ◽  
Threshold Functions ◽  
Anomalous Component

A hybrid model for the time series of complex structure (HMTS) was proposed. It is based on the combination of function expansions in a wavelet series with ARIMA models. HMTS has regular and anomalous components. The time series components, obtained after expansion, have a simpler structure that makes it possible to identify the ARIMA model if the components are stationary. This allows us to obtain a more accurate ARIMA model for a time series of complicated structure and to extend the area for application. To identify the HMTS anomalous component, threshold functions are applied. This paper describes a technique to identify HMTS and proposes operations to detect anomalies. With the example of an ionospheric parameter time series, we show the HMTS efficiency, describe the results and their application in detecting ionospheric anomalies. The HMTS was compared with the nonlinear autoregression neural network NARX, which confirmed HMTS efficiency.

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