scholarly journals Using Deep Learning to Predict Complex Systems: A Case Study in Wind Farm Generation

Complexity ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Torres ◽  
R. M. Aguilar

Making every component of an electrical system work in unison is being made more challenging by the increasing number of renewable energies used, the electrical output of which is difficult to determine beforehand. In Spain, the daily electricity market opens with a 12-hour lead time, where the supply and demand expected for the following 24 hours are presented. When estimating the generation, energy sources like nuclear are highly stable, while peaking power plants can be run as necessary. Renewable energies, however, which should eventually replace peakers insofar as possible, are reliant on meteorological conditions. In this paper we propose using different deep-learning techniques and architectures to solve the problem of predicting wind generation in order to participate in the daily market, by making predictions 12 and 36 hours in advance. We develop and compare various estimators based on feedforward, convolutional, and recurrent neural networks. These estimators were trained and validated with data from a wind farm located on the island of Tenerife. We show that the best candidates for each type are more precise than the reference estimator and the polynomial regression currently used at the wind farm. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis to determine which estimator type is most robust to perturbations. An analysis of our findings shows that the most accurate and robust estimators are those based on feedforward neural networks with a SELU activation function and convolutional neural networks.

Data ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mesbaholdin Salami ◽  
Farzad Movahedi Sobhani ◽  
Mohammad Ghazizadeh

The databases of Iran’s electricity market have been storing large sizes of data. Retail buyers and retailers will operate in Iran’s electricity market in the foreseeable future when smart grids are implemented thoroughly across Iran. As a result, there will be very much larger data of the electricity market in the future than ever before. If certain methods are devised to perform quick search in such large sizes of stored data, it will be possible to improve the forecasting accuracy of important variables in Iran’s electricity market. In this paper, available methods were employed to develop a new technique of Wavelet-Neural Networks-Particle Swarm Optimization-Simulation-Optimization (WT-NNPSO-SO) with the purpose of searching in Big Data stored in the electricity market and improving the accuracy of short-term forecasting of electricity supply and demand. The electricity market data exploration approach was based on the simulation-optimization algorithms. It was combined with the Wavelet-Neural Networks-Particle Swarm Optimization (Wavelet-NNPSO) method to improve the forecasting accuracy with the assumption Length of Training Data (LOTD) increased. In comparison with previous techniques, the runtime of the proposed technique was improved in larger sizes of data due to the use of metaheuristic algorithms. The findings were dealt with in the Results section.


1997 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 1109-1126
Author(s):  
Zhiyu Tian ◽  
Ting-Ting Y. Lin ◽  
Shiyuan Yang ◽  
Shibai Tong

With the progress in hardware implementation of artificial neural networks, the ability to analyze their faulty behavior has become increasingly important to their diagnosis, repair, reconfiguration, and reliable application. The behavior of feedforward neural networks with hard limiting activation function under stuck-at faults is studied in this article. It is shown that the stuck-at-M faults have a larger effect on the network's performance than the mixed stuck-at faults, which in turn have a larger effect than that of stuck-at-0 faults. Furthermore, the fault-tolerant ability of the network decreases with the increase of its size for the same percentage of faulty interconnections. The results of our analysis are validated by Monte-Carlo simulations.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alisson Hayasi da Costa ◽  
Renato Augusto C. dos Santos ◽  
Ricardo Cerri

AbstractPIWI-Interacting RNAs (piRNAs) form an important class of non-coding RNAs that play a key role in the genome integrity through the silencing of transposable elements. However, despite their importance and the large application of deep learning in computational biology for classification tasks, there are few studies of deep learning and neural networks for piRNAs prediction. Therefore, this paper presents an investigation on deep feedforward networks models for classification of transposon-derived piRNAs. We analyze and compare the results of the neural networks in different hyperparameters choices, such as number of layers, activation functions and optimizers, clarifying the advantages and disadvantages of each configuration. From this analysis, we propose a model for human piRNAs classification and compare our method with the state-of-the-art deep neural network for piRNA prediction in the literature and also traditional machine learning algorithms, such as Support Vector Machines and Random Forests, showing that our model has achieved a great performance with an F-measure value of 0.872, outperforming the state-of-the-art method in the literature.


2019 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. 06017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Celia Fernández Madrazo ◽  
Ignacio Heredia ◽  
Lara Lloret ◽  
Jesús Marco de Lucas

The application of deep learning techniques using convolutional neural networks for the classification of particle collisions in High Energy Physics is explored. An intuitive approach to transform physical variables, like momenta of particles and jets, into a single image that captures the relevant information, is proposed. The idea is tested using a well-known deep learning framework on a simulation dataset, including leptonic ttbar events and the corresponding background at 7 TeV from the CMS experiment at LHC, available as Open Data. This initial test shows competitive results when compared to more classical approaches, like those using feedforward neural networks.


Complexity ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaowu Pan ◽  
Karthik Duraisamy

We study the use of feedforward neural networks (FNN) to develop models of nonlinear dynamical systems from data. Emphasis is placed on predictions at long times, with limited data availability. Inspired by global stability analysis, and the observation of strong correlation between the local error and the maximal singular value of the Jacobian of the ANN, we introduce Jacobian regularization in the loss function. This regularization suppresses the sensitivity of the prediction to the local error and is shown to improve accuracy and robustness. Comparison between the proposed approach and sparse polynomial regression is presented in numerical examples ranging from simple ODE systems to nonlinear PDE systems including vortex shedding behind a cylinder and instability-driven buoyant mixing flow. Furthermore, limitations of feedforward neural networks are highlighted, especially when the training data does not include a low dimensional attractor. Strategies of data augmentation are presented as remedies to address these issues to a certain extent.


Author(s):  
Jeremy Charlier ◽  
Robert Nadon ◽  
Vladimir Makarenkov

Abstract Motivation Off-target predictions are crucial in gene editing research. Recently, significant progress has been made in the field of prediction of off-target mutations, particularly with CRISPR-Cas9 data, thanks to the use of deep learning. CRISPR-Cas9 is a gene editing technique which allows manipulation of DNA fragments. The sgRNA-DNA (single guide RNA-DNA) sequence encoding for deep neural networks, however, has a strong impact on the prediction accuracy. We propose a novel encoding of sgRNA-DNA sequences that aggregates sequence data with no loss of information. Results In our experiments, we compare the proposed sgRNA-DNA sequence encoding applied in a deep learning prediction framework with state-of-the-art encoding and prediction methods. We demonstrate the superior accuracy of our approach in a simulation study involving Feedforward Neural Networks (FNNs), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) as well as the traditional Random Forest (RF), Naive Bayes (NB) and Logistic Regression (LR) classifiers.We highlight the quality of our results by building several FNNs, CNNs and RNNs with various layer depths and performing predictions on two popular CRISPOR and GUIDE-seq gene editing data sets. In all our experiments, the new encoding led to more accurate off-target prediction results, providing an improvement of the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve up to 35%. Availability The code and data used in this study are available at: https://github.com/dagrate/dl-offtarget


Author(s):  
Loris Nanni ◽  
Alessandra Lumini ◽  
Stefano Ghidoni ◽  
Gianluca Maguolo

In recent years, the field of deep learning achieved considerable success in pattern recognition, image segmentation and may other classification fields. There are a lot of studies and practical applications of deep learning on images, video or text classification. In this study, we suggest a method for changing the architecture of the most performing CNN models with the aim of designing new models to be used as stand-alone networks or as a component of an ensemble. We propose to replace each activation layer of a CNN (usually a ReLu layer) by a different activation function stochastically drawn from a set of activation functions: in this way the resulting CNN has a different set of activation function layers.


2021 ◽  
pp. 385-399
Author(s):  
Wilson Guasti Junior ◽  
Isaac P. Santos

Abstract In this work we explore the use of deep learning models based on deep feedforward neural networks to solve ordinary and partial differential equations. The illustration of this methodology is given by solving a variety of initial and boundary value problems. The numerical results, obtained based on different feedforward neural networks structures, activation functions and minimization methods, were compared to each other and to the exact solutions. The neural network was implemented using the Python language, with the Tensorflow library.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. [11 p.]-[11 p.]
Author(s):  
JUAN ANTONIO BALLESTEROS GALLARDO ◽  
FERNANDO NUÑEZ

ABSTRACT: This article analyses the effect of the closure of the Spanish coal-fired power stations on the price and quantity of energy sold in the daily electricity market. The comparative statics analysis is based on the hourly data of energy offer and demand bids published by the OMIE (Operator of the Iberian Energy Market) and made by the participants in the daily electricity market during the year 2018. Our analysis does not require any simulation of the market supply and demand curves, since they are obtained by aggregation using real data from the wholesale market. The main conclusion of our analysis is that, after the closure of the coal-fired stations, the hourly price of energy would increase 12,06% on average while the average amount of energy would decrease 2,57%. Keywords: Price of electricity; coal plants; ecological transition; supply and demand surpluses; renewable energy.


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