Corrigendum to “Projected Changes in Precipitation Extremes over Shaanxi Province, China, in the 21st Century”

The southeast coastal region of China is susceptible to challenges related to extreme precipitation events; hence, projection of future climate extremes changes is crucial for sustainable development in the region. Using the Regional Climate Model Version 4 (RegCM4), the future changes of summer precipitation extremes have been investigated over the Jiulongjiang River Basin (JRB), a coastal watershed in Southeast China. Comparison between the RegCM4 simulated and observed rainy season precipitation over JRB suggests that the RegCM4 can reasonably reproduce the seasonal precipitation cycle, the frequency distribution of precipitation intensity, and the 50-year return levels of precipitation extremes over JRB. Furthermore, the model projects an increase in daily maximum rainfall (RX1day) mostly over the northern part of the basin and a decrease over other parts of the basin, while projecting a widespread decrease for maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation amount (RX5day) relative to the present day. In terms of the 50-year return level of RX1day (RL50yr_RX1day), a general increase is projected over most parts of the basin in the near and far future of the 21st century, but a decrease can be found in the northeast and southwest parts of the JRB in the mid-21st century. The future change of the 50-year return level of RX5day (RL50yr_RX5day) shows a similar spatial pattern with that of RL50yr_RX1day in the near and mid-21st century, but with a larger magnitude. However, a remarkable decrease in RL50yr_RX5day is found in the south basin in the far future. Meanwhile, the projected changes in the 50-year return level for both RX1day and RX5day differ between the first and second rainy seasons in JRB. Specifically, the future increase in RL50yr_RX5day over the north basin is mainly contributed by the changes during the first-half rainy season, while the decrease of RL50yr_RX5day in the south is mostly ascribed to the future changes during the second-half rainy season. All above results indicate that the future changes of precipitation extremes in JRB are complicated, which might differ from extreme indices, seasons, and future projected periods. These will thus be of practical significance for flood risk management, mitigation, and adaptation measures in Jiulongjiang River Basin.

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Projected Changes in Precipitation Extremes over Shaanxi Province, China, in the 21st Century

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2020/1808404 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2020 ◽

pp. 1-13

Author(s):

Ling Li ◽

Ziniu Xiao ◽

Shuxiang Luo ◽

Aili Yang

Keyword(s):

Global Warming ◽

21St Century ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Precipitation Extremes ◽

Shaanxi Province ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

The Future ◽

Precipitation Events

Extreme precipitation events, which have intensified with global warming, will have a pernicious influence on society. It would be desirable to understand how they will evolve in the future as global warming becomes more serious with time. Thus, the primary objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the changing characteristics of the precipitation extremes in the 21st century over Shaanxi Province, a climate-sensitive and environmentally fragile area located in the east of northwestern China, based on a consecutive simulation of the 21st century conducted by the regional climate model RegCM4 forced by the global climate model HadGEM2-ES at high resolution under middle emission scenario of the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). Basic validation of the model performance was carried out, and six extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) were used to assess the intensity and frequency of the extreme precipitation events over Shaanxi Province. The results show that RegCM4 reproduces the observed characteristics of extreme precipitation events over Shaanxi Province well. Overall for the domain, the EPIs excluding consecutive dry days (CDD) have a growing tendency during 1980–2098 although they exhibit spatial variability over Shaanxi Province. Some areas in the arid northern Shaanxi may have more heavy rainfalls by the middle of the 21st century but less wet extreme events by the end of the 21st century. And the humid central and southern regions would suffer more precipitation-related natural hazards in the future.

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Projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Yangtze River Basin of China in the 21st century

Quaternary International ◽

10.1016/j.quaint.2008.12.020 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 208 (1-2) ◽

pp. 44-52 ◽

Cited By ~ 85

Author(s):

Ying Xu ◽

Chonghai Xu ◽

Xuejie Gao ◽

Yong Luo

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

21St Century ◽

Yangtze River ◽

Yangtze River Basin ◽

Precipitation Extremes ◽

The Yangtze River ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

The Yangtze River Basin ◽

Projected Changes

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Characteristic Features of Precipitation Extremes over India in the Warming Scenarios

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2011/138425 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 2011 ◽

pp. 1-11 ◽

Cited By ~ 32

Author(s):

J. V. Revadekar ◽

S. K. Patwardhan ◽

K. Rupa Kumar

Keyword(s):

21St Century ◽

Climate Modeling ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Regional Climate Modeling ◽

Precipitation Extremes ◽

Sulphate Aerosols ◽

Characteristic Features ◽

Projected Changes ◽

Socioeconomic Consequences

The detection of possible changes in extreme climate events, in terms of the frequency, intensity as well as duration assumes profound importance on the local, regional, and national scales, due to the associated critical socioeconomic consequences. Therefore, an attempt is made in this paper to evaluate various aspects of future projections of precipitation extremes over India, as projected by a state-of-art regional climate modeling system, known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) towards the end of the 21st century (that is, 2071–2100) using standardized indices. Study reveals that PRECIS simulations under scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentration and sulphate aerosols indicate marked increase in precipitation towards the end of the 21st century and is expected to increase throughout the year. However the changes in daily precipitation and the precipitation extremes during summer monsoon (June through September) season are prominent than during the rest of year. PRECIS simulations under both A2 and B2 scenarios indicate increase in frequency of heavy precipitation events and also enhancement in their intensity towards the end of the 21st century. Both A2 and B2 scenarios show similar patterns of projected changes in the precipitation extremes towards the end of the 21st century. However, the magnitudes of changes in B2 scenario are on the lower side.

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Projected changes in extreme precipitation over eastern Asia in the 21st century

International Journal of Climatology ◽

10.1002/joc.6422 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 40 (8) ◽

pp. 3701-3713

Author(s):

Chenghai Wang ◽

Danyang Cui ◽

Jerasorn Santisirisomboon

Keyword(s):

21St Century ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Eastern Asia ◽

Projected Changes

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Biotic and Human Vulnerability to Projected Changes in Ocean Biogeochemistry over the 21st Century

PLoS Biology ◽

10.1371/journal.pbio.1001682 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

pp. e1001682 ◽

Cited By ~ 117

Author(s):

Camilo Mora ◽

Chih-Lin Wei ◽

Audrey Rollo ◽

Teresa Amaro ◽

Amy R. Baco ◽

...

Keyword(s):

21St Century ◽

Human Vulnerability ◽

Ocean Biogeochemistry ◽

Projected Changes

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Strong sensitivity of late 21st century climate to projected changes in short-lived air pollutants

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres ◽

10.1029/2007jd009176 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 113 (D6) ◽

Cited By ~ 73

Author(s):

Hiram Levy ◽

M. Daniel Schwarzkopf ◽

Larry Horowitz ◽

V. Ramaswamy ◽

K. L. Findell

Keyword(s):

21St Century ◽

Air Pollutants ◽

Late 21St Century ◽

Projected Changes

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Mediterranean climate change projections: an update from CMIP5 and CMIP6.

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12803 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Josep Cos ◽

Francisco J Doblas-Reyes ◽

Martin Jury

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

21St Century ◽

Hot Spot ◽

Weighting Scheme ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

High Emission ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

Model Ensembles ◽

Projected Changes ◽

Model Weighting

The Mediterranean has been identified as a climate change hot-spot due to increased warming trends and precipitation decline. Recently, CMIP6 was found to show a higher climate sensitivity than its predecessor CMIP5, potentially further exacerbating related impacts on the Mediterranean region.To estimate the impacts of the ongoing climate change on the region, we compare projections of various CMIP5 and CMIP6 experiments and scenarios. In particular, we focus on summer and winter changes in temperature and precipitation for the 21st century under RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, RCP4.5/SSP2-4.5 and RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 as well as the high resolution HighResMIP experiments. Additionally, to give robust estimates of projected changes we apply a novel model weighting scheme, accounting for historical performance and inter-independence of the multi-member multi-model ensembles, using ERA5, JRA55 and WFDE5 as observational reference.&#160;Our results indicate a significant and robust warming over the Mediterranean during the 21st century irrespective of the used ensemble and experiments. Nevertheless, the often attested amplified Mediterranean warming is only found for summer. The projected changes vary between the CMIP5 and CMIP6, with the latter projecting a stronger warming. For the high emission scenarios and without weighting, CMIP5 indicates a warming between 4 and 7.7&#186;C in summer and 2.7 and 5&#186;C in winter, while CMIP6 projects temperature increases between 5.6 and 9.2&#186;C in summer and 3.2 to 6.8&#186;C in winter until 2081-2100 in respect to 1985-2005. In contrast to temperature, precipitation changes show a higher level of uncertainty and spatial heterogeneity. However, for the high emission scenario, a robust decline in precipitation is projected for large parts of the Mediterranean during summer. First results applying the model weighting scheme indicate reductions in CMIP6 and increases in CMIP5 warming trends, thereby reducing differences between the two ensembles.

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Projected changes in pyroconvective conditions in the Iberian Peninsula at the end of the 21st century

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15526 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Martín Senande-Rivera ◽

Gonzalo Miguez-Macho

Keyword(s):

Iberian Peninsula ◽

21St Century ◽

Surface Wind ◽

Atmospheric Stability ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Fire Season ◽

Fire Plume ◽

Near Surface ◽

Wildfire Spread ◽

Projected Changes

Extreme wildfire events associated with strong pyroconvection have gained the attention of the scientific community and the society in recent years. Strong convection in the fire plume can influence fire behaviour, as downdrafts can cause abrupt variations in surface wind direction and speed that can result in bursts of unexpected fire propagation. Climate change is expected to increase the length of the fire season and the extreme wildfire potential, so the risk of pyroconvection occurence might be also altered. Here, we analyse atmospheric stability and near-surface fire weather conditions in the Iberian Peninsula at the end of the 21st century to assess the projected changes in pyroconvective risk during favourable weather conditions for wildfire spread. &#160;

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