Gazing Into the Crystal Ball: Are Majority Groups Threatened by a Minority-Majority Future?

<p>By the mid to late 21st century, it is projected that ethnic European majority groups will account for less than half the total populations of many Western countries. As a result of this projected ethnic shift, these countries will become “minority-majority” nations. Three experiments were conducted in New Zealand to investigate how present-day majority group members (New Zealand Europeans) perceive and react to a projected minority-majority future. It was found that those exposed to a minority-majority future expressed greater feelings of ingroup sympathy than those presented with present-day demographic information. However, contrary to the findings of similar research conducted in North America, the minority-majority future was not associated with negative attitudes towards migrants or greater ingroup serving biases. When comparing two projected future conditions (New Zealand European-majority future vs. a minority-majority future), participants in the minority-majority condition expressed greater belief that the nation would possess more positive characteristics than those in the New Zealand European-majority condition. Additionally, the experimental condition was found to moderate the relationship between future expectations and present-day attitudes and action intentions. Depending on the strength of expectations for future societal dysfunction, development, and benevolence, participants in the minority-majority condition were more or less likely to engage in present-day pro-diversity actions or perceive diversity as threatening. Implications for theoretical research and New Zealand intergroup dynamics are discussed.</p>

Gazing Into the Crystal Ball: Are Majority Groups Threatened by a Minority-Majority Future?

<p>By the mid to late 21st century, it is projected that ethnic European majority groups will account for less than half the total populations of many Western countries. As a result of this projected ethnic shift, these countries will become “minority-majority” nations. Three experiments were conducted in New Zealand to investigate how present-day majority group members (New Zealand Europeans) perceive and react to a projected minority-majority future. It was found that those exposed to a minority-majority future expressed greater feelings of ingroup sympathy than those presented with present-day demographic information. However, contrary to the findings of similar research conducted in North America, the minority-majority future was not associated with negative attitudes towards migrants or greater ingroup serving biases. When comparing two projected future conditions (New Zealand European-majority future vs. a minority-majority future), participants in the minority-majority condition expressed greater belief that the nation would possess more positive characteristics than those in the New Zealand European-majority condition. Additionally, the experimental condition was found to moderate the relationship between future expectations and present-day attitudes and action intentions. Depending on the strength of expectations for future societal dysfunction, development, and benevolence, participants in the minority-majority condition were more or less likely to engage in present-day pro-diversity actions or perceive diversity as threatening. Implications for theoretical research and New Zealand intergroup dynamics are discussed.</p>

Maritime Security Governance: A New Strategy Management To Avoid Piracy In The Gog And Its Legal Guarantee

In the late 21st century, the growth of sea ships widened the horizons for trade on a global level. However, despite slow and cumulatively significant developments in transportation technology, during the era of sail, high sea maritime instability or the threats of piracy remained a significant obstacle to trade over long distances. In addition, with limited solidarity among all essential players in the region, several Gulf of Guinea (GoG) states can diversify their national attention to handle the pandemic instead of combating illegal activities at sea. Therefore, this article talks about the different factors of maritime piracy in the GoG, Comparing the trend across the region's different states (Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Ghana), the current maritime insecurity mitigation strategies proposed, and their gaps. Besides, a discussion around a knowledge gap in terms of accurate cooperation via the various policies implemented by those institutions brings us to propose coevolution governance in the shadow of the hierarchy and to create a maritime protect area (MPA) in the GoG country who do not have it yet, especially in Togo, Ghana, and Nigeria, and surround MPA with sustainably managed fishing areas where local small-scale fishers enjoy exclusive rights. The result shows that regionally it can help Centralize and diffuse the best practices, develop greater synergy among public policies and institutions, and nationally create greater sustainability of conservation with the integration of socio-economic concern and harmonization of strategic planning, practices, and policies.

Flood Hazard Mapping of Rivers in Snow- and Glacier-Fed Basins of Different Hydrological Regimes Using a Hydrodynamic Model under RCP Scenarios

The global warming trends have accelerated snow and glacier melt in mountainous river basins, which has increased the probability of glacial outburst flooding. Recurrent flood events are a challenge for the developing economy of Pakistan in terms of damage to infrastructure and loss of lives. Flood hazard maps can be used for future flood damage assessment, preparedness, and mitigation. The current study focused on the assessment and mapping of flood-prone areas in small settlements of the major snow- and glacier-fed river basins situated in Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya (HKH) under future climate scenarios. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model was used for flood simulation and mapping. The ALOS 12.5 m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was used to extract river geometry, and the flows generated in these river basins using RCP scenarios were used as the inflow boundary condition. Severe flooding would inundate an area of ~66%, ~86%, ~37% (under mid-21st century), and an area of ~72%, ~93%, ~59% (under late 21st century RCP 8.5 scenario) in the Chitral, Hunza, and Astore river basins, respectively. There is an urgent need to develop a robust flood mitigation plan for the frequent floods occurring in northern Pakistan.

Feasibility of The Olympic Marathon Under Climatic And Socioeconomic Change

There are concerns about the impact of climate change on Olympic Games, especially endurance events, such as marathons. In recent competitions, many marathon runners dropped out of their races due to extreme heat, and it is expected that more areas will be unable to host the Olympic Games due to climate change. Here, we show the feasibility of the Olympic marathon considering the variations in climate factors, socioeconomic conditions, and adaptation measures. The number of current possible host cities will decline by up to 24% worldwide by the late 21st century. Dozens of emerging cities, especially in Asia, will not be capable of hosting the marathon under the highest emission scenario. Moving the marathon from August to October and holding the games in multiple cities in the country are effective measures, and they should be considered if we are to maintain the regional diversity of the games.

Ensemble Projection of Extreme Precipitation Over China Based on Three Dynamical Downscaling Simulations

Based on the outputs of the global climate models (GCMs) HadGEM2-ES, NorESM1-M and MPI-ESM-LR from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the downscaling results with the regional climate model (RCM) REMO, the ability of the climate models to reproduce the extreme precipitation in China during the current period (1986–2005) is evaluated. Then, the future extreme precipitation in the mid (2036–2065) and the late 21st century (2066–2095) is projected under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results show that the RCM simulations have great improvements compared with the GCMs, and the ensemble mean of the RCM results (ensR) outperforms each single RCM simulation. The annual precipitation of the RCM simulations is more consistent with the observation than that of the GCMs, with the overestimation of the peak precipitation reduced, and the ensR further reduces the bias. For the extreme precipitation, the RCM simulations significantly decrease the underestimation of intensity in the GCMs. The RCM simulations and the ensR can greatly improve the simulations of Rx5day and CWD compared with the GCMs, decreasing the wet bias in North China and Northwest China. In the future, the consecutive dry days (CDD) will decrease in the northern arid regions, especially in North China and Northeast China. However, the southern regions will experience longer dry period. Both the amount and the intensity of precipitation will increase in various regions of China. The number of wet days will decrease in the south and increase in the north area. The significantly greater Rx5day and R95t indicate more intensive extreme precipitation in the future, and the intensity in the late 21st century will be stronger than that in the middle. Attribution analysis indicates that the extreme precipitation indices especially the R95t have significant positive temporal and spatial correlations with the water vapor flux.

Dynamical Downscaling Projections of Late 21st Century U.S. Landfalling Hurricane Activity

U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) activity was projected for late 21st century conditions using a two-step dynamical downscaling framework. A regional atmospheric model, run for 27 seasons, generated tropical storm cases. Each storm case was re-simulated (up to 15 days) using the higher resolution GFDL hurricane model. Thirteen CMIP3 or CMIP5 modeled climate change projections were explored as scenarios. Robustness of projections was assessed using statistical significance tests and comparing the sign of changes derived from different models. The proportion of TCs (tropical storms and hurricanes) making U.S. landfall increases for the warming scenarios (by order 50% or more). For category 1-3 hurricane frequency, a robust decrease is projected (basin-wide), but robust changes are not projected for U.S. landfalling cases. A relatively robust increase in U.S. landfalling category 4-5 hurricane frequency is projected, averaging about +400% across the models; 10 of 13 models/ensembles project an increase (statistically significant in three individual models), while three models projected no change. The most robust projections overall for U.S. landfalling TC activity are for increased near-storm rainfall rates: these increases average +18% (all tropical storms and hurricanes), +26% (all hurricanes), and +37% (major hurricanes). Landfalling hurricane wind speed intensities show no robust signal, in contrast to a ~5% increase in basin-averaged TC intensity; basin-wide Power Dissipation Index (PDI) is projected to decrease, partly due to decreased duration. TC translation speed increases a few percent in most simulations. A caveat is the framework’s low correlation of modeled U.S. TC landfalls vs. observed interannual variations (1980-2016).

Diel streamflow cycles suggest more sensitive snowmelt-driven streamflow to climate change than land surface modeling

Climate warming may cause mountain snowpacks to melt earlier, reducing summer streamflow and threatening water supplies and ecosystems. Few observations allow separating rain and snowmelt contributions to streamflow, so physically based models are needed for hydrological predictions and analyses. We develop an observational technique for detecting streamflow responses to snowmelt using incoming solar radiation and diel (daily) cycles of streamflow. We measure the 20th percentile of snowmelt days (DOS20), across 31 watersheds in the western US, as a proxy for the beginning of snowmelt-initiated streamflow. Historic DOS20 varies from mid-January to late May, with warmer sites having earlier and more intermittent snowmelt-mediated streamflow. Mean annual DOS20 strongly correlates with the dates of 25 % and 50 % annual streamflow volume (DOQ25 and DOQ50, both R2 = 0.85), suggesting that a one-day earlier DOS20 corresponds with a one-day earlier DOQ25 and 0.7-day earlier DOQ50. Empirical projections of future DOS20 (RCP8.5, late 21st century), using space-for-time substitution, show that DOS20 will occur 11 ± 4 days earlier per 1 °C of warming, and that colder places (mean November–February air temperature, TNDJF <−8 °C) are 70 % more sensitive to climate change on average than warmer places (TNDJF > 0 °C). Moreover, empirical space-for-time based projections of DOQ25 and DOQ50 are about four and two times more sensitive to earlier streamflow than those from NoahMP-WRF. Given the importance of changing streamflow timing for headwater resources, snowmelt detection methods such as DOS20 based on diel streamflow cycles may constrain hydrological models and improve hydrological predictions.

Mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate

We conduct extended versions of the ISMIP6 future climate experiments for the Greenland ice sheet until the year 3000 with the model SICOPOLIS. Beyond 2100, the climate forcing is kept fixed at late-21st-century conditions. For the unabated warming pathway RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5, the ice sheet suffers a severe mass loss, which amounts to ~ 1.8 m SLE (sea-level equivalent) for the twelve-experiment mean, and ~ 3.5 m SLE (~ 50% of the entire mass) for the most sensitive experiment. For the reduced emissions pathway RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, the mass loss is limited to a two-experiment mean of ~ 0.28 m SLE. Climate-change mitigation during the next decades will therefore be an efficient means for limiting the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea-level rise in the long term.