scholarly journals Biotic and Human Vulnerability to Projected Changes in Ocean Biogeochemistry over the 21st Century

PLoS Biology ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. e1001682 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camilo Mora ◽  
Chih-Lin Wei ◽  
Audrey Rollo ◽  
Teresa Amaro ◽  
Amy R. Baco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Human Vulnerability ◽  
Ocean Biogeochemistry ◽  
Projected Changes

Projected changes in extreme precipitation over eastern Asia in the 21st century

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (8) ◽  
pp. 3701-3713
Author(s):  
Chenghai Wang ◽  
Danyang Cui ◽  
Jerasorn Santisirisomboon
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Eastern Asia ◽  
Projected Changes

Strong sensitivity of late 21st century climate to projected changes in short-lived air pollutants

2008 ◽  
Vol 113 (D6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiram Levy ◽  
M. Daniel Schwarzkopf ◽  
Larry Horowitz ◽  
V. Ramaswamy ◽  
K. L. Findell
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Air Pollutants ◽  
Late 21St Century ◽  
Projected Changes

Mediterranean climate change projections: an update from CMIP5 and CMIP6.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josep Cos ◽  
Francisco J Doblas-Reyes ◽  
Martin Jury
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Weighting Scheme ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
High Emission ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Model Ensembles ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Model Weighting

<p>The Mediterranean has been identified as a climate change hot-spot due to increased warming trends and precipitation decline. Recently, CMIP6 was found to show a higher climate sensitivity than its predecessor CMIP5, potentially further exacerbating related impacts on the Mediterranean region.</p><p>To estimate the impacts of the ongoing climate change on the region, we compare projections of various CMIP5 and CMIP6 experiments and scenarios. In particular, we focus on summer and winter changes in temperature and precipitation for the 21st century under RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, RCP4.5/SSP2-4.5 and RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 as well as the high resolution HighResMIP experiments. Additionally, to give robust estimates of projected changes we apply a novel model weighting scheme, accounting for historical performance and inter-independence of the multi-member multi-model ensembles, using ERA5, JRA55 and WFDE5 as observational reference. </p><p>Our results indicate a significant and robust warming over the Mediterranean during the 21st century irrespective of the used ensemble and experiments. Nevertheless, the often attested amplified Mediterranean warming is only found for summer. The projected changes vary between the CMIP5 and CMIP6, with the latter projecting a stronger warming. For the high emission scenarios and without weighting, CMIP5 indicates a warming between 4 and 7.7ºC in summer and 2.7 and 5ºC in winter, while CMIP6 projects temperature increases between 5.6 and 9.2ºC in summer and 3.2 to 6.8ºC in winter until 2081-2100 in respect to 1985-2005. In contrast to temperature, precipitation changes show a higher level of uncertainty and spatial heterogeneity. However, for the high emission scenario, a robust decline in precipitation is projected for large parts of the Mediterranean during summer. First results applying the model weighting scheme indicate reductions in CMIP6 and increases in CMIP5 warming trends, thereby reducing differences between the two ensembles.</p>

Projected changes in pyroconvective conditions in the Iberian Peninsula at the end of the 21st century

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martín Senande-Rivera ◽  
Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Atmospheric Stability ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Plume ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Wildfire Spread ◽  
Projected Changes

<p>Extreme wildfire events associated with strong pyroconvection have gained the attention of the scientific community and the society in recent years. Strong convection in the fire plume can influence fire behaviour, as downdrafts can cause abrupt variations in surface wind direction and speed that can result in bursts of unexpected fire propagation. Climate change is expected to increase the length of the fire season and the extreme wildfire potential, so the risk of pyroconvection occurence might be also altered. Here, we analyse atmospheric stability and near-surface fire weather conditions in the Iberian Peninsula at the end of the 21st century to assess the projected changes in pyroconvective risk during favourable weather conditions for wildfire spread.  </p>

Projected Changes in Water Balance Components of 11 Large River Basins during the 21st Century and Their Uncertainties

2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (5) ◽  
pp. 666-675
Author(s):  
O. N. Nasonova ◽  
Ye. M. Gusev ◽  
E. E. Kovalev ◽  
G. V. Ayzel ◽  
M. K. Chebanova
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
21St Century ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Large River ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Large River Basins

scholarly journals Projected changes in winter climate in Beskids Mountains during 21st century

Beskydy ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 123-134
Author(s):  
Aleš Farda ◽  
Petr Štěpánek ◽  
Pavel Zahradníček ◽  
Petr Skalák ◽  
Jan Meitner
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Balance Budget ◽  
General Increase ◽  
Winter Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Winter Temperatures ◽  
Projected Changes

We have investigated the future changes of climate conditions during the winter season in the Beskids Mountains. During the 21st century mean winter temperature will increase by 2.0–6.3 °C and winter precipitation will increase by 12.5 – to 17.5 % - depending on the scenario. Higher winter temperatures will be reflected in the reduced number of frost days, the number of which may drop by 40 % according to the RCP8.5 scenario. Whilst our study expects general increase in precipitation, higher temperatures will lead to an increased evapotranspiration and also change in the form of precipitation from solid (snow, rime) to liquid (rain, drizzling). Such trends could further propel the unfavorable changes in the water balance budget.

Projected Changes in Wave Conditions in the Baltic Sea by the end of 21st Century and the Corresponding Shoreline Changes

2016 ◽  
Vol 75 (sp1) ◽  
pp. 1012-1016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ülo Suursaar ◽  
Hannes Tõnisson ◽  
Victor Alari ◽  
Urmas Raudsepp ◽  
Henri Rästas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
21St Century ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Shoreline Changes ◽  
Wave Conditions ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Projected Changes

scholarly journals Drivers of trophic amplification of ocean productivity trends in a changing climate

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 7125-7135 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. A. Stock ◽  
J. P. Dunne ◽  
J. G. John
Keyword(s):  
Food Web ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Trophic Level ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Phytoplankton Production ◽  
Planktonic Food ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Zooplankton Growth

Abstract. Pronounced projected 21st century trends in regional oceanic net primary production (NPP) raise the prospect of significant redistributions of marine resources. Recent results further suggest that NPP changes may be amplified at higher trophic levels. Here, we elucidate the role of planktonic food web dynamics in driving projected changes in mesozooplankton production (MESOZP) found to be, on average, twice as large as projected changes in NPP by the latter half of the 21st century under a high emissions scenario in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's ESM2M–COBALT (Carbon, Ocean Biogeochemistry and Lower Trophics) earth system model. Globally, MESOZP was projected to decline by 7.9% but regional MESOZP changes sometimes exceeded 50%. Changes in three planktonic food web properties – zooplankton growth efficiency (ZGE), the trophic level of mesozooplankton (MESOTL), and the fraction of NPP consumed by zooplankton (zooplankton–phytoplankton coupling, ZPC), explain the projected amplification. Zooplankton growth efficiencies (ZGE) changed with NPP, amplifying both NPP increases and decreases. Negative amplification (i.e., exacerbation) of projected subtropical NPP declines via this mechanism was particularly strong since consumers in the subtropics have limited surplus energy above basal metabolic costs. Increased mesozooplankton trophic level (MESOTL) resulted from projected declines in large phytoplankton production. This further amplified negative subtropical NPP declines but was secondary to ZGE and, at higher latitudes, was often offset by increased ZPC. Marked ZPC increases were projected for high-latitude regions experiencing shoaling of deep winter mixing or decreased winter sea ice – both tending to increase winter zooplankton biomass and enhance grazer control of spring blooms. Increased ZPC amplified projected NPP increases in the Arctic and damped projected NPP declines in the northwestern Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Improved understanding of the physical and biological interactions governing ZGE, MESOTL and ZPC is needed to further refine estimates of climate-driven productivity changes across trophic levels.

Projected changes in hailstorms during the 21st century over the UK

2014 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. G. Sanderson ◽  
W. H. Hand ◽  
P. Groenemeijer ◽  
P. M. Boorman ◽  
J. D. C. Webb ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Uk
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