scholarly journals Capital Gains Sensitivity of US BBB-Rated Debt to US Treasury Market: Markov-Switching Analyses

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Mariya Gubareva ◽  
Ilias Chondrogiannis
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Capital Gains ◽  
Capital Gain ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Hedging Strategy ◽  
Treasury Bonds ◽  
Bond Portfolio ◽  
Policy Suggestions ◽  
The Relationship

We reexamine the relationship between credit spreads and interest rates from a capital gain perspective of bond portfolio. Capital gain sensitivity between US BBB-rated bonds and Treasury bonds is weak and positive in normal periods, but strong and negative during recessions. In the upward phase of business cycles, changes in interest rates are fully reflected in the bond yields, leaving spreads unchanged, while in the downward phase, rates and spreads move in opposite directions. This alternation between two distinct regimes reconciles a long-standing division in the literature. We then discuss the efficiency of shorting Treasury bonds as a hedging strategy and policy suggestions.

Tax Optimization of Municipal Bond Portfolios: Investment Selection and Tax Rate Arbitrage

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Capital Gains ◽  
Municipal Bond ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Arbitrage Opportunities ◽  
Bond Portfolio ◽  
Tax Management ◽  
Selling Strategies ◽  
Tax Loss

This article considers how to improve the after-tax performance of a municipal bond portfolio by using tax-beneficial selling strategies. These strategies include tax loss harvesting (selling a bond at a price below the investor’s tax basis), applicable when interest rates increase, and tax rate arbitrage (paying tax earlier at a relatively low long-term capital gains rate, rather than at maturity at a much higher rate), applicable when rates decline. A tax-beneficial selling opportunity is a free investor-specific option, acquired automatically at the time of purchase. The combination of tax loss harvesting and rate arbitrage opportunities provides a straddle. The embedded tax option in a portfolio can be valued using option-adjusted spread–based bond analytics. Astute investors should maximize the value of the tax option in their portfolios, subject to the usual portfolio profile constraints. The author shows that bonds purchased near par are poorly suited for tax management and that dynamic tax management can improve the expected annual after-tax return by 20 to 30 bps.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Real Wages and Output: Evidence from Pakistan

2000 ◽  
Vol 39 (4II) ◽  
pp. 1111-1126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Afia Malik ◽  
Ather Maqsood Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Real Wage ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Labour Supply ◽  
Nominal Wage ◽  
Purchasing Power ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Relationship

Information on wage levels is essential in evaluating the living standards and conditions of work and life of the workers. Since nominal wage fails to explain the purchasing power of employees, real wage is considered as a major indicator of employees purchasing power and can be used as proxy for their level of income. Any fluctuations in the real wage rate have a significant impact on poverty and the distribution of income. When used in relation with other economic variables, for instance employment or output they are valuable indicators in the analysis of business cycles. There has been a long debate regarding the relationship between real wages and the employment (output). Despite the apparent simplicity, the relationship between real wages and output has remained deceptive both theoretically and empirically. Keynes (1936) viewed cyclical movements in employment along a stable labour demand schedule thus indicating counter cyclical real wages. His deduction is in line with sticky wages and sticky expectations, which augments models like Phillips curve. In these models real wages behaved as counter-cyclical as nominal wages are slow to adjust during recession (decrease in aggregate demand and associated slowdown in price growth). Stickiness of wages or expectations shifts the labour supply over the business cycles [Abraham and Haltiwanger (1995)]. Barro (1990) and Christiano and Eichenbaum (1992) have associated these labour supply shifts with intertemporal labour-leisure substitution. This in response to temporary changes in real interest rates (fiscal policy shocks) could yield counter-cyclical real wages. However, Long and Plosser (1983) and Kydland and Prescott (1982) while studying the real business cycle models highlight on the technology shocks which leads to pro-cyclical real wages.

Strategi Pengelolaan Risiko dan Peningkatan Kualitas Pengelolaan Kas Negara

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 43-54
Author(s):  
Agung Mulyono
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Secondary Market ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Bond Price ◽  
Hedging Strategy ◽  
Foreign Loan ◽  
Term Operation ◽  
Loan Interest Rates

Cash management is  one of treasury’s main functions in which has a potential financial risk. A potential financial risk emerges when State Treasurer manages cash surplus and or/ shortages in order to maintain optimum liquidity. By applying Vector Autoregression (VAR) system on empirical data provided by Bank Indonesia and the Ministry of Finance of Indonesia, we found that currency value  flunctuation is a significant factor for repayment value of foreign loan. Interest rates and amount of government’s bond held by foreign investors are also variables impacted on government’s bond price movement in secondary market. Currency value  flunctuation and price of government’s bond in secondary market are the key factors that have to be considered by State Treasurer (BUN) in managing state’s money. Hedging strategy by using derivatif product is possible to be utilized by State Treasurer (BUN) due to it’s flexibility for short-term operation.   Abstrak Pengelolaan kas negara merupakan salah satu fungsi pokok perbendaharaan yang dalam proses pelaksanaannya menyimpan potensi berbagai risiko keuangan. Risiko keuangan, khususnya dalam investasi berpotensi muncul ketika Bendahara Umum Negara (BUN) melakukan kegiatan pengelolaan kelebihan dan/ kekurangan kas dalam rangka menjamin ketersediaan dan optimalisasi kas. Dengan menggunakan analisis Vector Autoregression (VAR) atas data empiris yang diperoleh dari Bank Indonesia dan Kementerian Keuangan Indonesia, penulis menemukan bahwa fluktuasi nilai tukar mata uang merupakan faktor yang signifikan terhadap besaran pembayaran utang luar negeri pemerintah. Tingkat suku bunga acuan dan pergerakan besaran kepemilikan SUN oleh investor asing juga merupakan variabel yang berpengaruh terhadap pergerakan harga SUN di pasar sekunder. Fluktuasi nilai tukar mata uang dan pergerakan harga SUN di pasar sekunder menjadi faktor penting dalam pelaksanaan investasi yang dilakukan BUN dalam rangka pengelolaan kelebihan dan/ kekurangan kas. Berdasarkan hasil tersebut, strategi pengelolaan risiko atau hedging dengan menggunakan produk-produk derivatif dalam pengelolaan kelebihan dan/ kekurangan kas jangka pendek – menengah sangat dimungkinkan karena sifat instrumen derivatif yang fleksibel.

scholarly journals Was the Gibson Paradox for real? A Wicksellian study of the relationship between interest rates and prices

2014 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jagjit S. Chadha ◽  
Morris Perlman
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Formal Model ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Market Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Gibson Paradox ◽  
The Relationship

We examine the relationship between prices and interest rates for seven advanced economies in the period up to 1913, emphasising the UK. There is a significant long-run positive relationship between prices and interest rates for the core commodity standard countries. Keynes ([1930] 1971) labelled this positive relationship the ‘Gibson Paradox’. A number of theories have been put forward as possible explanations of the paradox but they do not fit the long-run pattern of the relationship. We find that a formal model in the spirit of Wicksell (1907) and Keynes ([1930] 1971) offers an explanation for the paradox: where the need to stabilise the banking sector's reserve ratio, in the presence of an uncertain ‘natural’ rate, can lead to persistent deviations of the market rate of interest from its ‘natural’ level and consequently long-run swings in the price level.

THE IMPACT OF THE CAPITAL GAINS TAX ON BOND YIELDS

1973 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 575-583
Author(s):  
JOHN S. McCALLUM
Keyword(s):  
Capital Gains ◽  
Capital Gains Tax ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Asymmetric Macroeconomic Shocks and Asset Price Behaviors in Selected African Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 90
Author(s):  
Saliu Mojeed Olanrewaju ◽  
Ogunleye Edward Oladipo
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Real Estate Prices ◽  
The Relationship

This study examines the relationship between Asset prices (Stock and Real estate prices) and Macroeconomic variables in four selected African countries. The study employs the Westerlund Error Correction Based Panel Cointegration test and Eight-variable Structural Vector Autoregressive model to examine the relationship between asset prices and macroeconomic variables. Findings from the study confirm that no long-run relationship exists between both Asset prices and macroeconomic variables. The study equally reveals that portfolio diversification benefits of both stock and real estate markets are more pronounced in the period of a boom than the recession period in Africa. The results also show that GDP growth rate shock exerts a significant impact on both asset prices during expansion and recession periods. The study reveals that foreign interest rates and World oil price shocks are better predictors of both stock and real estate prices during the crisis period than in the expansion period.

scholarly journals Some elements of the forensic characterization of bribery

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 240-244
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Payment Systems ◽  
Electronic Money ◽  
Law Enforcement Agencies ◽  
Official Position ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Investigation Process

In the article, the authors consider the criminalistics aspect of a corruption crime on the example of bribery, the subject of criminal encroachment, the place and time of Commission. The characteristics and features of methods of committing bribery have been given. It has been concluded that the nature of the mechanism in each specific case is directly related to the way the crimes were committed and the personality of the participants, and their interest in concealing the fact of illegal actions and their high official position always serve as a guarantee of the absence of trace information. Bribery has a high latency and has a direct impact on strengthening the attitude of tolerance in society to the manifestation of such behavior, affects the unwillingness of a significant number of citizens to assist law enforcement agencies in identifying, disclosing and investigating corruption crimes. Recently, electronic money has become widespread, which allows offenders to use the various technical capabilities of numerous electronic payment systems and the Internet. The use of electronic money significantly complicates the process of identifying bribe-givers and bribe-takers. The subject of a bribe, together with money and other property, can be property services rendered free of charge, but payable, and certain material benefits, which should be understood, in particular, the underestimation of the value of the transferred property, privatized objects, a decrease in rental payments, interest rates for use of bank loans, etc. The nature of the subject of a bribe may also indicate the nature of the relationship between the subjects of corrupt relations. Nevertheless, the typical characteristics of the personality of the offender, the subject of the bribe, the method of committing the crime and the mechanisms of trace formation, in any case, are the basis for planning and organizing the investigation process of the acts in question.

scholarly journals A note on imperfect hedging: a method for testing stability of the hedge ratio

2012 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 45-50
Author(s):  
Michal Černý ◽  
Jan Pelikán
Keyword(s):  
Recent Change ◽  
Hedging Strategy ◽  
Hedge Ratio ◽  
Risk Manager ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
On Line ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Open Position

Companies producing, processing and consuming commodities in the production process often hedge their commodity expositions using derivative strategies based on different, highly correlated underlying commodities. Once the open position in a commodity is hedged using a derivative position with another underlying commodity, the appropriate hedge ratio must be determined in order the hedge relationship be as effective as possible. However, it is questionable whether the hedge ratio determined at the inception of the risk management strategy remains stable over the whole period for which the hedging strategy exists. Usually it is assumed that in the short run, the relationship (say, correlation) between the two commodities remains stable, while in the long run it may vary. We propose a method, based on statistical theory of stability, for on-line detection whether market movements of prices of the commodities involved in the hedge relationship indicate that the hedge ratio may have been subject to a recent change. The change in the hedge ratio decreases the effectiveness of the original hedge relationship and creates a new open position. The method proposed should inform the risk manager that it could be reasonable to adjust the derivative strategy in a way reflecting the market conditions after the change in the hedge ratio.

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