scholarly journals An Empirical Study on the Relationship between the balance of treasure Yield and the Interest Rate of Treasury Bonds

Author(s):  
Zeyang Rong
2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 37-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Atiq-ur Rehman

Abstract The monetary policy rules used by central banks these days are based on the assumption that inflation could be reduced by increasing interest rate. On contrary, Tooke (1774-1858), the forefather of monetary economics, was of the view that the relationship between interest rate and inflation should be positive. His view was based on simple logic, ‘interest is a part of cost, and therefore, the increase in interest rate should increase inflation by increasing cost of production (Tooke, 1838)’. Tooke’s view has got support from a number of empirical evidence including Gibson (1923) who found positive correlation between two variables for UK data over a period of 200 years. On the other hand, mainstream economic thinking on which the actual monetary practices are based ignored any possibility of positive relationship between interest rate and inflation throughout the history. The existence of Tooke’s cost side effects of monetary policy is a serious concern because if these effects exist than the use of monetary policy would be counterproductive. Using the data from entire globe, I attempt to explore the nature of relationship between the interest rate and inflation. I found that the data supports the perception of Tooke and Gibson and denies that the effectiveness of monetary policy currently adapted by the correlation between interest rate and inflation is positive. The results are robust to sample size, sample period, and various definitions of interest rate and inflation.


2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 369
Author(s):  
Embun Suryani ◽  
Donny Oktaviansyah ◽  
Adi Septiawan

The informal sector in developing countries like Indonesia is able to grow rapidly and is able to absorb labor. However, the ability to access credit is one of the main obstacles for the development and growth of Small and Micro Enterprises (SMEs). Microcredit is characterized with the existence of information asymmetry, for that we need a different approach in distributing financing for SMEs, one of which is to apply the approach lending relationship. The research was conducted at 12 Lembaga Keuangan Mikro (LKM) BUMDes in Lombok. The results indicate that the variable lending relationship positively affects credit approval and the period for credit approval submitted by customers. It means that loan approval and approval timeframes increase with the increase in the intensity of the relationship between LKM BUMDes and micro customers. The interest rate and the application of collateral do not have a positive effect on lending relationships. The implication of these results is to illustrate the intensity of interactions between borrowers and lenders can provide credit access for micro customers. Another implication shows that the microcredit distribution strategy must be carried out by building continuous relationships with customers to reduce the occurrence of information asymmetry in micro-credit distributionKeywords :Asymmetric information, intensity of relationship, interest rate, collateral, micro credit, LKM BUMDes


2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 10-21
Author(s):  
J. Tim Query ◽  
Evaristo Diz Cruz

It is of vital importance to explore the relationship between pensions and inflationary levels because this forms a link between social policy and economic development in the context of Venezuela’s challenging economy and its impact on the development of pension systems. With such rampant inflation, companies must adjust the rates of salary increases to avoid a significant decrease in the purchasing power of income from defined benefit plans. Our research seeks to find the possibility of using an average geometric rate of future interest rates expressed as an expected value to discount obligations. Consequently, the cost of interest associated with the actuarial liability of the Benefit plans increases substantially in the next fiscal period to the actuarial valuation, sometimes compromising its sustainability over time. In order to minimize this problem, two scenarios for calculating the interest rate are proposed to smooth out this volatile effect; both are based on a geometric average with the expectation of working life or with the duration of the obligations. We are careful to use a reasonable interest rate that is not so high as to compromise the cash flow, resulting in skewed annual results of the companies. Our research seeks to find the possibility of using an average geometric rate of future interest rates expressed as an expected value to discount obligations. We formulate and actuarially evaluate two different scenarios, based on job expectations and Macaulay's duration, of the obligations that allow the sustainability of the plan in an environment of extremely high inflation. To illustrate the impact of the basic annual expenditure of the period, the results of an actuarial valuation of an actual Venezuelan company were utilized. Despite some companies adjusting their book reserves increasingly through a geometric progression, the amounts associated with the costs of interest would be huge in any such adjustment pattern. Therefore, we suggest adoption of one of the alternatives described in the research.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey Royer ◽  
Gregory McKee

PurposeThis paper presents a model for determining the optimal capital structure for cooperatives and explores the relationship between financial leverage and the ability of cooperatives to retire member equity.Design/methodology/approachA model is developed to determine the optimal capital structure and explore the relationship between capital structure and the rate at which a cooperative can retire member equity. Using data from cooperative financial statements, ordinary least-squares regressions are conducted to test two hypotheses on capital structure and equity retirement.FindingsThe model shows that the optimal capital structure is determined by the ratio of the rate of return on capital employed to the interest rate on borrowed capital and the required level of interest coverage. The regressions suggest that cooperatives choose their capital structure largely according to the rate of return on capital employed and the interest rate in a manner consistent with maximizing the rate of return on equity and that the rate at which cooperatives can retire member equity is directly related to leverage.Research limitations/implicationsThe model does not consider unallocated earnings. Analysis of the relationship between leverage and equity retirement yields results contrary to the assumptions of earlier studies.Practical implicationsCooperatives can use the model because the necessary parameters are easily understood and readily available from financial statements, lenders and industry sources.Originality/valueThe model is developed specifically for determining the capital structure of cooperatives and differs substantially from the corporate model. A theoretical basis is provided for the relationship between leverage and equity retirement.


1992 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 50-57
Author(s):  
David Vang

This paper models the relationship between interest rate swaps and capital in savings and loan associations. The interest rate swap is a way in which financial institutions exchange the flexible rate on their liabilities with a fixed interest rate to hedge themselves from interest rate risk, and therefore reduce the need for a capital cushion. The empirical evidence, however, shows that a small capital cushion reduces the firm's possibility of using interest rate swaps because no partner is willing to engage in a rate swapping contract with a firm that does not have adequate capital and soundness.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 277
Author(s):  
Muhammad Azmat Hayat ◽  
Huma Ghulam ◽  
Maryam Batool ◽  
Muhammad Zahid Naeem ◽  
Abdullah Ejaz ◽  
...  

This research is the earliest attempt to understand the impact of inflation and the interest rate on output growth in the context of Pakistan using the wavelet transformation approach. For this study, we used monthly data on inflation, the interest rate, and industrial production from January 1991 to May 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected economies around the world, especially in view of the measures taken by governmental authorities regarding enforced lockdowns and social distancing. Traditional studies empirically explored the relationship between these important macroeconomic variables only for the short run and long run. Firstly, we employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration test and two causality tests (Granger causality and Toda–Yamamoto) to check the cointegration properties and causal relationship among these variables, respectively. After confirming the long-run causality from the ARDL bound test, we decomposed the time series of growth, inflation, and the interest rate into different time scales using wavelet analysis which allows us to study the relationship among variables for the very short run, medium run, long run, and very long run. The continuous wavelet transform (CWT), the cross-wavelet transform (XWT), cross-wavelet coherence (WTC), and multi-scale Granger causality tests were used to investigate the co-movement and nature of the causality between inflation and growth and the interest rate and growth. The results of the wavelet and multi-scale Granger causality tests show that the causal relationship between these variables is not the same across all time horizons; rather, it is unidirectional in the short-run and medium-run but bi-directional in the long-run. Therefore, this study suggests that the central bank should try to maintain inflation and the interest rate at a low level in the short run and medium run instead of putting too much pressure on these variables in the long-run.


Author(s):  
Najia Shakir ◽  
Sami Ullah ◽  
Salim Ullah Khan ◽  
Muhammad Qasim

The current study was conducted in the year 2014 in Pakistan to investigate the impact of fiscal deficit and government debt on the interest rate.  Data on selected macroeconomic variables like fiscal deficit, government debt, GDP per capita, money supply and volume of trade etc. from the year 1990 to 2012.  The study also has tried to find out that how the interest rate in the country is affected by the government debt and fiscal deficit. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was run to address the stationary issue in the data, and then Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model test was run to check the relationship among the variables. Two models were set in the study. In the first model, the relationship of GDP per capita, money supply, total debt servicing and volume of trade showed a significant relationship with the fiscal deficit, while in the second model the relationship of inflation, fiscal deficit, money supply, government debt and public debt showed a significant relationship with the interest rate. Policy makers are advised to focus on the increase of DGP/Capita and export volume. In order to sustain the rate of inflation, the government may regulate the money supply and public borrowing.


1940 ◽  
Vol 70 (3) ◽  
pp. 380-390
Author(s):  
R. E. White ◽  
B. T. Holmes

The recent paper by Dr Hagstroem (J.I.A. Vol. LXX, p. 119) directs attention to the very closely related subject of the effect on life assurance premiums of changes in the rate of interest. Some four years ago, in the course of an address before the American Life Convention, Mr V. R. Smith studied the relationship of the interest rate to life assurance premiums from a different angle. This note is an attempt to develop the mathematical theory underlying Mr Smith's method and to present some results on the basis of the A 1924–29 Table.


2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 247-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yannis Panagopoulos ◽  
Ekaterini Tsouma

This paper examines the impact of the June 2014 switch to negative interest rates (NIRs) by the European Central Bank (ECB) on the operation of the eurozone interest-rate pass-through (IRPT) mechanism. We focus on the relationship between major central-bank policy rates and selected money-market rates. That link is identified as the first stage of the IRPT mechanism and its dynamics are analysed using Granger causality and cointegration techniques for the time period January 2000–June 2017. Our empirical findings indicate a feedback relationship between the ECB policy and the money-market rates in the period prior to June 2014, but that relationship is non-operative when considering only the period of NIRs.


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