scholarly journals How Does Internet Information Affect Oil Price Fluctuations? Evidence from the Hot Degree of Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Lu-Tao Zhao ◽  
Shi-Qiu Guo ◽  
Jing Miao ◽  
Ling-Yun He
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Online News ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Internet Information ◽  
Interactive Relationship ◽  
The Impact

Not only the fundamentals of supply and demand but also international oil prices are affected by nonfundamental indicators such as emergencies. With the development of big data technology, many unstructured and semistructured factors can be reflected through Internet information. Based on this, this paper proposes a HD-based oil price forecasting model to explore the impact of Internet information on international oil prices. Firstly, we use LDA and other methods to extract topics from massive online news. Secondly, based on conditional probability and correlation, the positive hot degree (PHD) and negative hot degree (NHD) of the oil market are constructed to realize the quantitative representation of Internet information. Finally, the SVAR method is established to explore the interactive relationship between HD and oil prices. The empirical results indicate that PHD and NHD have a better ability to predict international oil prices compared with Google Trends which is widely used in the other research. In addition, PHD has a significant positive impact on oil prices and NHD has a negative impact. In the long term, PHD accounts for 51.00% of oil price fluctuations, ranking the first among relevant influencing factors. The findings of this paper can provide support to investors and policy-makers.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE ON STOCK MARKET:EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM US

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 330-337
Author(s):  
Shanaz hakim , Tugut Tursoy,
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
P Value ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Interactive Relationship ◽  
The Impact

The analysis of this research focuses on the interactive relationship among the fluctuation of crude oil prices, the real GDP and the stock market of United State. This empirical investigation uses data is in between 1990 and 2018 with the Vector Auto-regression (VAR) analysis, and multiple regressions with its assumption were used in order to analyses data.  Findings, oil price and economic growth are very important determinates of stock market in US because the p-value of this were less than the common alpha α =0.05. For instance, the crude oil price had positive impact on stock market because for each unit increasing of crude oil price, the stock market will increase by (0.276901) after holding all other variable constant. However, we find that GDP has negative impact on the participations of increasing the stock market.

The nexus between financial development and energy consumption: Estimating the role of foreign direct investment, economic growth and urbanization

2021 ◽  
pp. 0958305X2110453
Author(s):  
Jaleel Ahmed ◽  
Shuja ur Rehman ◽  
Zaid Zuhaira ◽  
Shoaib Nisar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of financial development on energy consumption for a wide array of countries. The estimators used for financial development are foreign direct investment, economic growth and urbanization. The study employed a panel data regression on 136 countries with time frame of years 1990 to 2019. The model in this study deploys system GMM technique to estimate the model. The results show that financial development has a significant negative impact on energy consumption overall. Foreign direct investment and urbanization has significant impact on energy consumption. Also, economic growth positive impact on energy consumption its mean that economic growth promotes energy consumption. When dividing further the sample into different groups of regions such as Asian, European, African, North/Latin American and Caribbean countries then mixed results related to the nexus between financial development and energy consumption with respect to economic growth, urbanization and foreign direct investment. The policymakers in these different groups of countries must balance the relationship between energy supply and demand to achieving the sustainable economic development.

scholarly journals The Impact of International Oil Prices on the Stock Price Fluctuations of China’s Renewable Energy Enterprises

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
pp. 4630 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao ◽  
Weishun Lin ◽  
Xinyang Wei ◽  
Gaoyun Yan ◽  
Siqi Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Listed Companies ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
The Impact

In order to address a series of issues, including energy security, global warming, and environmental protection, China has ranked first in global renewable investment for the seventh consecutive year. However, developing a renewable energy industry requires a significant capital investment. Also, the international oil price fluctuations have an important impact on the stock prices of renewable energy firms. Thus, in order to provide implications for market investment as well as policy recommendations, this paper studied the spillover effect of international oil prices on the stock prices of China’s renewable energy listed companies. We used a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model with innovations using a Factor-GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) process to evaluate the impact of market co-movements and time-varying volatility and correlation between the international oil price and China’s renewable energy market. The results show that the international oil price has a significant price spillover effect on the stock prices of China’s renewable energy listed companies. Moreover, the fluctuations of international oil prices have an influence on the stock price variations of Chinese renewable energy listed companies.

scholarly journals Do High Oil Prices Obstruct the Transition to Renewable Energy Consumption?

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 4689 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahriyar Mukhtarov ◽  
Jeyhun I. Mikayilov ◽  
Sugra Humbatova ◽  
Vugar Muradov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2 ◽  
The Impact

The study analyzes the impact of economic growth, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and oil price on renewable energy consumption in Azerbaijan for the data spanning from 1992 to 2015, utilizing structural time series modeling approach. Estimation results reveal that there is a long-run positive and statistically significant effect of economic growth on renewable energy consumption and a negative impact of oil price in the case of Azerbaijan, for the studied period. The negative impact of oil price on renewable energy consumption can be seen as an indication of comfort brought by the environment of higher oil prices, which delays the transition from conventional energy sources to renewable energy consumption for the studied country case. Also, we find that the effect of CO2 on renewable energy consumption is negative but statistically insignificant. The results of this article might be beneficial for policymakers and support the current literature for further research for oil-rich developing countries.

scholarly journals Oil price fluctuations and economic growth: the case of MENA countries

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mamdouh Abdelmoula Mohamed Abdelsalam
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to explore the extreme effect of crude oil price fluctuations and its volatility on the economic growth of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. It also investigates the asymmetric and dynamic relationship between oil price and economic growth. Further, a separate analysis for each MENA oil-export and oil-import countries is conducted. Furthermore, it studies to what extent the quality of institutions will change the effect of oil price fluctuations on economic growth. Design/methodology/approach As the effect of oil price fluctuations is not the same over different business cycles or oil price levels, the paper uses a panel quantile regression approach with other linear models such as fixed effects, random effects and panel generalized method of moments. The panel quantile methodology is an extension of traditional linear models and it has the advantage of exploring the relationship over the different quantiles of the whole distribution. Findings The paper can summarize results as following: changes in oil price and its volatility have an opposite effect for each oil-export and oil-import countries; for the former, changes in oil prices have a positive impact but the volatility a negative effect. While for the latter, changes in oil prices have a negative effect but volatility a positive effect. Further, the impact of oil price changes and their uncertainty are different across different quantiles. Furthermore, there is evidence about the asymmetric effect of the oil price changes on economic growth. Finally, accounting for institutional quality led to a reduction in the impact of oil price changes on economic growth. Originality/value The study concludes more detailed results on the impact of oil prices on gross domestic product growth. Thus, it can be used as a decision-support tool for policymakers.

scholarly journals Examining the Impact of Oil Price Change on the Economy through GDP Change

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-159
Author(s):  
Zoltán Szira ◽  
Alghamdi Hani ◽  
Erika Varga
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Price Change ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Pricing Strategies ◽  
Price Variation ◽  
Energy Demands ◽  
Petroleum Resources ◽  
Petroleum Economics ◽  
The Impact

Petroleum economics is the field that studies human utilization of petroleum resources and the consequences of that utilization. Petroleum use allows the production of energy. Resources can be regarded as renewable or depletable; petroleum falls into the latter category, which can have an effect on pricing strategies. Crude oil is one of the main natural feedstocks used to meet energy demands and price variation has a significant influence on the society development. A large amount of research suggests that oil price fluctuations have considerable consequences on economic activity. These consequences are expected to be different in oil importing and in oil exporting countries. Whereas an oil price increase should be considered positive news in oil exporting countries and negative news in oil importing countries, the reverse should be expected when the oil price decreases. The paper investigates the co-movements and causality relationship between oil prices and GDP of selected oil exporting countries. Our assumption is decreasing oil prices have a negative impact on the GDP of such countries.

scholarly journals Oil Prices, Emission Permits Trade of Carbon, and the Dependence Between Their Quantiles

2022 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 38-45
Author(s):  
Baoshuai Zhang ◽  
Yuqin Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Carbon Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Quantile Regression Method

The relations between carbon and oil market is concerned by many scholars but little research has focused on the dependence between their quantiles. We use Quantile on Quantile Regression method to study the impact of WTI crude oil price and Daqing crude oil price on carbon price and use wavelet analysis to clean and decompose the time series. Results show that the impact of crude oil on carbon is heterogeneous. Research based on the original sequence shows that crude oil price has a positive impact on carbon price at all quantile levels. Research based on decomposition sequence shows that the positive impact of crude oil on carbon begins to weaken, the zero effect begins to increase, and the negative impact also begins to appear. However, the negative impact on carbon price becomes stronger with the stability of the time series data obtained from the decomposition of crude oil price series gradually improving, while the positive impact gradually weakens.

scholarly journals Oil Price, Oil Price Implied Volatility (OVX) and Illiquidity Premiums in the US: (A)symmetry and the Impact of Macroeconomic Factors

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Mohammad Sharik Essa ◽  
Evangelos Giouvris
Keyword(s):  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Full Sample ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

We examine the impact of oil price and oil price volatility on US illiquidity premiums (return on illiquid-minus-liquid stocks), using the US Oil Fund options implied volatility OVX index. We use daily data from 2007 to 2018, taking into account the structural break in June 2009 and controlling for macroeconomic factors. Both OLS and VAR models indicate that oil price has a significantly positive impact and OVX has a significantly negative impact on premiums, for the full sample and post-crisis period. These relationships are potentially driven by investor sentiments and market liquidity. Oil price has a negative impact on premiums during the crisis period. Using an autoregressive distribution lag model and an error correction model, we analyse long- and short-run elasticities. We find that oil price has a significantly positive impact on premiums both in the long- and short-run, for the full sample and post-crisis period. OVX only has a significantly negative impact in the short-run for the full sample. The reverting mechanism to establish long-run equilibrium is effective for the full sample and post-crisis period. Illiquidity premiums do not show any asymmetric responses to oil price changes but we do find evidence of asymmetric response to OVX changes.

scholarly journals Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Human Development: A Standard Study of Iraq

2018 ◽  
pp. 396-399
Keyword(s):  
Human Development ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil Revenues ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Oil Price Fluctuation

This paper examines the impact of oil price fluctuations on Human development in Iraq. We employed UNDP statistical data in HDI and oil prices were obtained from OPEC official statistics. EGARCH model is applied to estimate the series of oil price fluctuation. Further, we applied ARDL bound test approach to estimate the long run relationship between HDI and oil price fluctuation. Evidence shows that there is a long run relationship among the variables under study. A significant impact on human development index is witness due to fluctuations in oil prices. Since the dependence of Iraqi economy on oil exports tightly align the government spending with oil revenues. Therefore, this study proposes that Government should adopt a diversified policy and invest in other sectors of the economy, such as the industrial sectors. Investment in these sectors will help to increase the output of exportable goods. Exports of these goods can earn more foreign exchange. This will reduce the heavy reliance on oil revenues. The government needs to spend more money to provide infrastructure like transport facilities and stable electricity supply. This will help encourage private companies to invest more in their economic resources by reducing the cost of doing business.

Terrorism in OPEC countries and oil prices

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1732-1750 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charbel Bassil ◽  
Hassan Hamadi ◽  
Marion Bteich
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Marginal Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Different Characteristics ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of terrorism in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on the return and volatility of world price of oil. Design/methodology/approach GARCH models and daily data from 1987 till 2015 will be used. Findings The empirical results reveal that terrorism in the OPEC affects positively oil returns and negatively its volatility. Results also show that the different characteristics of the attacks are likely to have different impact on the return and volatility of oil prices. In overall terms, terrorism has a much larger positive impact on the return of oil prices and negative impact on its volatility if it targets the oil industry in the OPEC. This marginal effect is even greater if those attacks were successful. Originality/value The distinguishing feature of this paper is that the authors use a framework that takes into account different attributes for terrorism the success of the attacks, the intensity of the attacks and the associated targets.

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