scholarly journals Examining the Impact of Oil Price Change on the Economy through GDP Change

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-159
Author(s):  
Zoltán Szira ◽  
Alghamdi Hani ◽  
Erika Varga
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Price Change ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Pricing Strategies ◽  
Price Variation ◽  
Energy Demands ◽  
Petroleum Resources ◽  
Petroleum Economics ◽  
The Impact

Petroleum economics is the field that studies human utilization of petroleum resources and the consequences of that utilization. Petroleum use allows the production of energy. Resources can be regarded as renewable or depletable; petroleum falls into the latter category, which can have an effect on pricing strategies. Crude oil is one of the main natural feedstocks used to meet energy demands and price variation has a significant influence on the society development. A large amount of research suggests that oil price fluctuations have considerable consequences on economic activity. These consequences are expected to be different in oil importing and in oil exporting countries. Whereas an oil price increase should be considered positive news in oil exporting countries and negative news in oil importing countries, the reverse should be expected when the oil price decreases. The paper investigates the co-movements and causality relationship between oil prices and GDP of selected oil exporting countries. Our assumption is decreasing oil prices have a negative impact on the GDP of such countries.

scholarly journals Do High Oil Prices Obstruct the Transition to Renewable Energy Consumption?

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 4689 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahriyar Mukhtarov ◽  
Jeyhun I. Mikayilov ◽  
Sugra Humbatova ◽  
Vugar Muradov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2 ◽  
The Impact

The study analyzes the impact of economic growth, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and oil price on renewable energy consumption in Azerbaijan for the data spanning from 1992 to 2015, utilizing structural time series modeling approach. Estimation results reveal that there is a long-run positive and statistically significant effect of economic growth on renewable energy consumption and a negative impact of oil price in the case of Azerbaijan, for the studied period. The negative impact of oil price on renewable energy consumption can be seen as an indication of comfort brought by the environment of higher oil prices, which delays the transition from conventional energy sources to renewable energy consumption for the studied country case. Also, we find that the effect of CO2 on renewable energy consumption is negative but statistically insignificant. The results of this article might be beneficial for policymakers and support the current literature for further research for oil-rich developing countries.

scholarly journals How Does Internet Information Affect Oil Price Fluctuations? Evidence from the Hot Degree of Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Lu-Tao Zhao ◽  
Shi-Qiu Guo ◽  
Jing Miao ◽  
Ling-Yun He
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Online News ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Internet Information ◽  
Interactive Relationship ◽  
The Impact

Not only the fundamentals of supply and demand but also international oil prices are affected by nonfundamental indicators such as emergencies. With the development of big data technology, many unstructured and semistructured factors can be reflected through Internet information. Based on this, this paper proposes a HD-based oil price forecasting model to explore the impact of Internet information on international oil prices. Firstly, we use LDA and other methods to extract topics from massive online news. Secondly, based on conditional probability and correlation, the positive hot degree (PHD) and negative hot degree (NHD) of the oil market are constructed to realize the quantitative representation of Internet information. Finally, the SVAR method is established to explore the interactive relationship between HD and oil prices. The empirical results indicate that PHD and NHD have a better ability to predict international oil prices compared with Google Trends which is widely used in the other research. In addition, PHD has a significant positive impact on oil prices and NHD has a negative impact. In the long term, PHD accounts for 51.00% of oil price fluctuations, ranking the first among relevant influencing factors. The findings of this paper can provide support to investors and policy-makers.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of the Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Arab Countries

2022 ◽  
Vol 19 ◽  
pp. 462-473
Author(s):  
Mayis G. Gülaliyev ◽  
Rahima N. Nuraliyeva ◽  
Ruhiyya A. Huseynova ◽  
Firudin E. Hatamov ◽  
Alikhanli S. Yegana ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Price Change ◽  
Practical Importance ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Arab Countries ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
The Impact

The role of oil and gas in the modern economy is undeniable. That is why oil-exported countries have a good chance to wealth. But if the economy doesn't have diversification or there is no political stability this revenue cannot become welfare for the long run. As well as the changing of oil prices doe in the world market can impact the revenues of oil-exported countries. The purpose of the research – to assess the impact of the oil price shocks on economic growth in oil-exporting Arab countries. As a methodology, there were chosen VAR models and Granger causality tests. The practical importance of the research is to predict economic growth in other oil-exporting countries. The authors came to the conclusion that oil-price change has positive impacts on GDP growth in oil-rich Arab countries and there is the strong dependency from oil prices. The originality and scientific novelty of the research connected with this argue that oil revenues have impacts on economic growth only in economic and political stability.

scholarly journals The Effects of Oil Price Volatility on the Economic Sectors of Libya

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (12) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Nagmi M. Moftah Aimer
Keyword(s):  
Policy Development ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
The Impact

<p>Fluctuations in oil price and its impact on economic development is an important issue facing a growing number of world economies. A simple changes in oil prices lead to negative or positive effects on all the economic sectors. This paper seeks to investigate the impact of oil price volatility on economic sectors in the Libyan economy context on the basis of annual data spanning from 1968-2012. The Johansen based Co-integration technique is applied to examine the sensitivity of economic sectors to volatility in oil prices in the long-run. And the short-run relationship is tested by Vector Error Correction Model. Through examining the results, that there is a long-term relationship of oil prices on the agriculture, construction, manufacturing and transport sectors. Finally, this study concludes that increases in oil price did not significantly affect the manufacturing sector in aggregate terms. Moreover, the negative impact on the sector of manufacturing and agriculture. Thus, this study has a significant impact in the Libyan economy in policy development on oil prices. The Libyan government needs to control the price to make sure that price volatility will not harm the manufacturing, agriculture, construction and transport sectors.</p>

Does Agriculture Responds Asymmetrically to Oil Price Change

2011 ◽  
Vol 347-353 ◽  
pp. 10-15
Author(s):  
Li Hong Wang ◽  
Bao Guo Wang ◽  
Gui Feng Liu ◽  
Zhi Hong Tian
Keyword(s):  
Market Structure ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Price Change ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Diesel Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Monopoly Market ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes the impact of the rise and decline of the oil prices on the agricultural diesel prices, and interviews the reasons and effects. The results show that the rise of the oil price is the major factor that impacts on diesel price change, that is to say, the price of diesel oil price goes up with the rise of oil price, however, it does not fall with the decline of oil price in short term. Possible explanations for these results are offered. The most important one is that the monopoly market structure of agricultural diesel and oil is the main reason why the agricultural diesel price responds asymmetrically to oil price change. And it gives some advice to find out a way to cope with the inconsistency between agricultural production and the oil price.

Monetary policy and the effect of the transfer of oil prices to inflation

2020 ◽  
pp. 41-50
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
I. D. Medvedev
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choice of the monetary policy regime on the strength of this influence. We used dynamic models on panel data for the countries of the world for the period from 2000 to 2017. It is shown that mainly the impact of changes in oil prices on inflation is carried out through the channel of exchange rate. The paper demonstrates the influence of the transition to inflation targeting on the nature of the relationship between oil price shocks and inflation. This effect is asymmetrical: during periods of rising oil prices, inflation targeting reduces the effect of the transfer of oil prices, limiting negative effects of shock. During periods of decline in oil prices, this monetary policy regime, in contrast, contributes to a stronger transfer, helping to reduce inflation.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Industry Stock Returns: Evidence from International Markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Elias Randjbaran ◽  
Reza Tahmoorespour ◽  
Marjan Rezvani ◽  
Meysam Safari
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Variation ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Food And Beverage ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of oil price variation on 14 industries in six markets, including Canada, China, France, India, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Panel weekly data were collected from June 1998 to December 2011. The results indicate that price fluctuations primarily affect the Oil and Gas as well as the Mining industries and have the least influence on the Food and Beverage industry. Furthermore, in three out of six of these countries (Canada, France, and the U.K.), oil price changes negatively affect the Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology industry. One possible reason for the negative relationship between oil price changes and the Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology industries in the above-mentioned countries is that the governments of these countries fund their healthcare systems. Portfolio managers and investors will find the results of this study useful because it enables adjusting portfolios based on knowledge of the industries that are impacted the most or the least by oil price fluctuations.

The macroeconomic effects of increase and decrease in oil prices: evidences of asymmetric effects from India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anver Chittangadan Sadath ◽  
Rajesh Herolli Acharya
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
Price Shock

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess whether oil price shocks emanating from oil price increase and decrease have a different impact on the macroeconomic activity. Design/methodology/approach This study conducts the empirical analysis using structural vector auto-regressive model on Indian data for the period from 1996 to 2017. This paper uses four key macroeconomic variables, namely, real gross domestic product (GDP), the real rate of interest, real money supply, wholesale price index inflation and various linear and non-linear measures of oil price shock. Findings Empirical results confirm that oil price shock has a significant impact on various macroeconomic variables used in the study. Specifically, shocks emanating from a decline in oil price have a stronger positive impact on real GDP, whereas, a shock due to the rise in oil price has a weaker negative impact on real GDP. Impulse responses confirm that shocks due to a decline in oil prices are long-lasting compared to similar shocks due to a rise in oil prices. Therefore, this study concludes that the macroeconomic impact of oil price shock is asymmetric in India. Originality/value This paper adds the following new insights: First, this paper presents a distinct relationship between the growth rate of oil price and GDP during increasing and decreasing phases of oil price to drive home the case for this study. Second, India has adopted crucial administrative initiatives such as deregulation of the market for petroleum products and the promotion of renewable energy during the study period. Finally, previous studies have revealed specific behavioral and economic features of people in India with respect to the demand for petroleum products. In light of these factors, this paper based on Indian experience would be justified.

scholarly journals The Impact of International Oil Prices on the Stock Price Fluctuations of China’s Renewable Energy Enterprises

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
pp. 4630 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao ◽  
Weishun Lin ◽  
Xinyang Wei ◽  
Gaoyun Yan ◽  
Siqi Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Listed Companies ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
The Impact

In order to address a series of issues, including energy security, global warming, and environmental protection, China has ranked first in global renewable investment for the seventh consecutive year. However, developing a renewable energy industry requires a significant capital investment. Also, the international oil price fluctuations have an important impact on the stock prices of renewable energy firms. Thus, in order to provide implications for market investment as well as policy recommendations, this paper studied the spillover effect of international oil prices on the stock prices of China’s renewable energy listed companies. We used a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model with innovations using a Factor-GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) process to evaluate the impact of market co-movements and time-varying volatility and correlation between the international oil price and China’s renewable energy market. The results show that the international oil price has a significant price spillover effect on the stock prices of China’s renewable energy listed companies. Moreover, the fluctuations of international oil prices have an influence on the stock price variations of Chinese renewable energy listed companies.

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