scholarly journals Modeling the Grain Import Trade: A Cointegration Analysis of China’s Panel Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Feng Zhao ◽  
Pingping Sun ◽  
Jie Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Agricultural Resources ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Food Market ◽  
Import Trade ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Country Effect

In recent years, China has become the world’s largest importer of grain, and scholars have particularly examined whether China’s grain import trade presents this effect. By applying cointegration analysis to trade statistics panel data of China’s wheat, corn, rice, and soybean production and imports from January 2016 to December 2019, this paper empirically tests for the existence of the great country effect in China’s grain import trade. The results show that during the sample period, there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the import volume, domestic price, and international price of the four major grains; the great country effect in the import trade of wheat and rice is not significant. The imports of corn and soybean present a great country effect to a certain extent in the short term; moreover, a change in the grain price in the international market does not lead to a change in China’s grain import volume, which shows that the great country effect in China’s grain import trade is distorted. Therefore, China should pay close attention to the impact of international factors on the fluctuation of its own food prices and enhance its ability to rationally utilize the international food market and international agricultural resources to ensure domestic food security.

Impact of increasing agricultural domestic support on China’s food prices considering incomplete international agricultural price transmission

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 535-557
Author(s):  
Fan Yang ◽  
Kirsten Urban ◽  
Martina Brockmeier ◽  
Eddy Bekkers ◽  
Joseph Francois
Keyword(s):  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
World Trade Organisation ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Food Market ◽  
Domestic Support ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop a modelling approach that enables the analysis of long-term food security policies. Specifically, the authors explore the effect of China’s agricultural domestic support on its agricultural and food market by also considering the impact of incomplete price transmission. Design/methodology/approach The authors extend the standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) modelling framework. First, the authors incorporate incomplete price transmission into the GTAP model by generating tariff-equivalent price transmission elasticities. Second, the authors improve the current representation of China’s agricultural domestic support in the GTAP model and the underlying database by considering the production requirements and the trade-distorting effect of different policy instruments. Running a set of simulations, the authors examine first how the incorporation of incomplete price transmission affects the model’s results and second how increased agricultural domestic support affects China’s agricultural and food market accounting for incomplete price transmission. Findings Considering incomplete price transmission mitigates the domestic price increases as responses to high international agricultural prices, which also lead to an increase in China’s trade deficit and prohibits net food sellers from receiving high prices. In the long term, an increase in China’s agricultural domestic support to its World Trade Organisation de minimis commitment level would increase domestic agricultural production and reduce its demand pressure on the international market. Originality/value This paper contributes to the literature by examining the impact of increased agricultural domestic support on the domestic market while innovatively accounting for incomplete food price transmission. The authors combine econometric estimated price transmission elasticities and an extended GTAP framework to underscore the importance of enhancing the model’s ability in accounting for incomplete price transmission when analysing the impact of agricultural policies.

تدفقات الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر وأثره على البطالة في العراق للمدة (2004-2017) دراسة تحليلية باستخدام التكامل المشترك المتزامن

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
خالد عواد ◽  
مهند عبد ◽  
بلال اسعد
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Economic Liberalization ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
The Impact

This research aims to show the impact of foreign investment inflows into Iraq on changes in unemployment after 2004, in light of the emergence of ideas of globalization in various aspects and the convergence of distances between countries due to the development of knowledge and scientific means of communication and by the policies of economic liberalization and international trade. A long - term equilibrium relationship between foreign investment flows and unemployment, and that changes in unemployment rates explain the change in FDI flows.

New Evidence on the Relationship Between Economic Freedom and Growth: A Panel Cointegration Analysis for The Case of OECD

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 1850263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ekrem Erdem ◽  
Can Tansel Tugcu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Total Factor Productivity ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Factor Productivity ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of this paper is to find a new answer to an old question “Is economic freedom good or not for economies?” which was refreshed after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. For this purpose, the relationship between economic freedom and economic growth, and the relationship between economic freedom and total factor productivity in OECD countries were investigated by using panel data for the period of 1995-2009. Study employed the recently developed cointegration test by Westerlund (2007) and the estimation technique by Bai and Kao (2006) which account for cross-sectional dependence that is an important problem in the panel data studies. Although no significant relationship found between economic freedom and total factor productivity, cointegration analysis revealed that economic freedom matters for economic growth in OECD countries in the long-run, and estimation results showed that direction of the impact is negative.

The impact of biomass consumption on CO2 emissions

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 348-358 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salih Turan Katircioglu
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Fuel Consumption ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Total Biomass ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fossil Fuel Consumption ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to investigate the long-term equilibrium relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and total biomass consumption (BC) in Turkey, which has a rich diversity of ecological conditions prevailing throughout its regions. Design/methodology/approach – Bounds tests and conditional error correction models under the autoregressive distributed lag approach have been applied to annual data that cover the 1980-2010 period. Findings – Results suggest that CO2 emissions are in a long-term equilibrium relationship with total BC in Turkey. BC has a negative effect on CO2 emissions; 1 per cent increase in total BC would lead to 0.029 per cent reduction in CO2 emissions. Long-term coefficient of fossil fuel consumption for CO2 emissions is positive and elastic, 1.247. Finally, conditional error correction model of the present study reveals that CO2 emission in Turkey converges to its economic long-term equilibrium very quickly by 93.7 per cent speed of adjustment through the channel of BC and fossil fuel consumption. Originality/value – Although there have been a considerable number of studies investigating the link between total energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the literature, searching the contribution of components of energy to CO2 emissions deserves attention. Therefore, this study contributes to the literature by investigating the effect of BC on CO2 emissions in the case of Turkey.

scholarly journals Vertical Fiscal Imbalance and Regional Economic Growth

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 39-53
Author(s):  
B.I. Alekhin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Fiscal Federalism ◽  
Fiscal Decentralization ◽  
Regional Economic Growth ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Fiscal Imbalance ◽  
Vertical Fiscal Imbalance ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of fiscal decentralization on regional economic growth using panel data for 82 subjects of the Russian Federation for the period 2005-2018. General theoretical framework was drawn from the second-generation theory of fiscal federalism, and panel data econometrics suggested the appropriate empirical model and estimation method. The pooled mean group method was used to estimate an autoregressive distributed lags model based on Solow-Swan theory of economic growth. The results indicate that vertical fiscal gap has a negative and significant long-term impact on regional economic growth while vertical fiscal imbalance has a positive and significant long-term effect. The study is consistent with the modern theory of fiscal federalism, W.E. Oates’ matching hypothesis and previous empirical work using Russian data. The study also found evidence of conditional convergence of regional economies.

Revisiting the nexus between financial development, FDI, and growth: New evidence from second generation econometric procedures in the Turkish context

2014 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hasan Güngör ◽  
Salih Katircioglu ◽  
Mehmet Mercan
Keyword(s):  
Financial Development ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Second Generation ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Multiple Structural Breaks ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

This study investigates the impact of the selected financial development proxies and foreign direct investment (FDI) on the growth in the case of Turkey, using annual data for the 1960–2011 period. The second-generation econometric procedure has been applied for the first time to the Turkish data with this respect. Unit root tests by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2009) assume that real income, financial development proxies, and FDI are non-stationary at levels, but become stationary at first differences through multiple structural breaks. Cointegration results by Maki (2012) confirm the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between real income growth, financial development, and FDI, again through multiple structural breaks. Finally, this paper confirms that financial development and FDI are long-term drivers of real income, which enable it to react to its long-term path significantly.

scholarly journals The Impact of Government Spending on Economic Diversification for the Period (2004-2019) and its Reflection on the Path of Rehabilitation of the Iraqi Economy

Webology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 1186-1198
Author(s):  
Dr. Alyaa Hussain Khalaf ◽  
Ali Talib Hussain ◽  
Dr. Ammar Naeem Zghair
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Positive Equilibrium ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Investment Spending ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The research aims to measure and analyze the relationship between government spending and economic diversification in Iraq for the period (2004-2019), using the ARDL model. The research concluded that there is a long-term positive equilibrium relationship between investment spending and economic diversification in Iraq. When investment spending increases by (1%), this will lead to an increase in economic diversification by (0.23%), assuming that operating spending is stable, and the opposite happens in the case of decline. In addition to the existence of a long-term inverse equilibrium relationship between operating spending and economic diversification in Iraq, as an increase in operating spending by (1%) will lead to a decrease in economic diversification by (0.73%), assuming the stability of investment spending, and the opposite will happen in the event of decline.

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