scholarly journals A Novel Interval Evidential Reasoning Approach to the Physical and Mechanical Property Assessment of Particleboards

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Cuiping Yang ◽  
Chao Sun ◽  
Jilai Su ◽  
Wei He ◽  
Zhenhua Gao
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Property ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Interval Data ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Evidential Reasoning ◽  
Thickness Swelling ◽  
Evidential Reasoning Approach ◽  
Property Assessment ◽  
Overall Reliability

In this paper, a new assessment method based on the interval evidential reasoning (IER) rule is proposed to solve the problem of physical and mechanical property assessment (PMPA) for particleboards. Because the detection data of the density and thickness swelling (TS) of particleboards are in an interval form, a model with precise values as input becomes inappropriate, so the PMPA of particleboards is not feasible. In the proposed method, expert knowledge and interval data are integrated to solve the assessment problem. First, the overall reliability of attributes is calculated, and the interval data are transformed into an interval belief structure. Then, the multiple interval belief structures are aggregated by ER nonlinear optimization models. Finally, the assessment results are obtained by utility theory. With the proposed method, the PMPA of particleboards with interval values can be assessed reasonably, and the combination interval belief degree of different grades of particleboard can be obtained, which has a certain guiding significance for the production and subsequent operation of enterprises. A case study for the PMPA of particleboards is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

scholarly journals Application of Multi-criteria Approach for Sustainability Assessment of Manufacturing Processes

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 62-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aldona Kluczek
Keyword(s):  
Sustainability Assessment ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Manufacturing Processes ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Analytical Technique ◽  
Systematic Improvement ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Abstract The paper is to present a multi-criteria approach for sustainability assessment of manufacturing processes, which can be applied to carry out the sustainability assessment of manufacturing processes requiring less detailed data, time, and expert knowledge, but still providing a company-level analysis. The analytical hierarchy process method is used to determine ranking of simple and relevant activity areas for manufacturing processes in terms of sustainability objectives. Analytical technique is also employed to assess the degree of sustainability in manufacturing due to limited information which appear to be a characteristic of the case study presented. One goal of sustainability characterization methodology is to improve the manufacturing sustainability performance. Similar to the baseline scenario, sustainability reevaluation for sustainability improvement is also applied and discuses performance profile at the process level. This approach seems particularly useful when comparing different processes. It makes applicable for various industries and might be a challenge to derive priorities for systematic improvement. The applicability and usability of the proposed assessment method was verified by the case study in company producing heating devices.

scholarly journals Study on the Relationship between Worker States and Unsafe Behaviours in Coal Mine Accidents Based on a Bayesian Networks Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 5021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhaobo Chen ◽  
Gangzhu Qiao ◽  
Jianchao Zeng
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Coal Mine ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Mine Safety ◽  
Contributory Factor ◽  
Fitness For Duty ◽  
Mine Accidents ◽  
The Relationship

Unsafe behaviours, such as violations of rules and procedures, are commonly identified as important causal factors in coal mine accidents. Meanwhile, a recurring conclusion of accident investigations is that worker states, such as mental fatigue, illness, physiological fatigue, etc., are important contributory factors to unsafe behaviour. In this article, we seek to provide a quantitative analysis on the relationship between the worker state and unsafe behaviours in coal mine accidents, based on a case study drawn from Chinese practice. Using Bayesian networks (BN), a graphical structure of the network was designed with the help of three experts from a coal mine safety bureau. In particular, we propose a verbal versus numerical fuzzy probability assessment method to elicit the conditional probability of the Bayesian network. The junction tree algorithm is further employed to accomplish this analysis. According to the BN established by expert knowledge, the results show that when the worker is in a poor state, the most vulnerable unsafe behaviour is violation, followed by decision-making error. Furthermore, insufficient experience may be the most significant contributory factor to unsafe behaviour, and poor fitness for duty may be the principal state that causes unsafe behaviours.

THE EVIDENTIAL REASONING APPROACH FOR RISK MANAGEMENT IN LARGE ENTERPRISES

2012 ◽  
Vol 20 (supp01) ◽  
pp. 17-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
DAWEI TANG ◽  
JIAN-BO YANG ◽  
DAVID BAMFORD ◽  
DONG-LING XU ◽  
MARGARET WAUGH ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Health Care Organization ◽  
Complete Information ◽  
Evidential Reasoning ◽  
Care Organization ◽  
Intelligent Decision ◽  
Enterprise Risk ◽  
Risk Aggregation ◽  
Evidential Reasoning Approach

Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) is a framework that is used by large organizations to manage risk as a whole. The key difference between ERM and traditional risk management is that in the latter risks are managed individually, whilst the former requires the aggregation of risks to facilitate risk management. However, current methods for risk aggregation have various limitations when applied under the context of ERM, such as the requirement for accurate and complete information about risk factors, the inability to handle different kinds of uncertainty which are inevitable during the risk aggregation process, and so on. Due to its unique advantages in accommodating different forms of both complete and incomplete information and handling different kinds of uncertainty, the Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach together with its implementation entitled Intelligent Decision System (IDS) is introduced in this paper for risk aggregation in ERM to overcome the limitations and to provide a comprehensive analysis for risk management based on the aggregation result. To demonstrate the applicability of the ER approach and IDS in ERM, a case study is analyzed in detail regarding risk aggregation and risk management for a health care organization in North England.

scholarly journals A Reliability-Based Consensus Model for Multiattribute Group Decision-Making with Analytically Evidential Reasoning Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuan-Wei Du ◽  
Ning Yang ◽  
Wen Zhou ◽  
Chang-Xing Li
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Evidential Reasoning ◽  
Final Decision ◽  
Consensus Model ◽  
Evidential Reasoning Approach ◽  
Basic Probability ◽  
Numerical Case Study

Expert reliability is the ability to make unmistakable evaluations on attributes for the performance of an alternative in multiattribute group decision making (MAGDM). It has a significant effect on the group consensus calculation and group decision-making; unfortunately the reliability has not been considered in the consensus-reaching model yet. This study focuses on providing a reliability-based consensus model for MAGDM with analytically evidential reasoning (analytical ER for short) approach. The basic probability assignment (BPA) function which can be discounted by expert reliability is introduced to describe the performance judgments of each expert, by combining which of the group judgments could be determined with analytical ER rule. Then the consensus degrees of three levels (attribute level, alternative level, and expert level) are defined by Jousselme distance to identify the experts who should revise their judgments and point out revised suggestions, based on which a decision-making method within interaction is proposed to determine the effective BPA functions of all experts and make final decision-making. Finally, a numerical case study is carried out to illustrate the effectiveness of the method.

Storm surge risk assessment method for a coastal county in China: case study of Jinshan District, Shanghai

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 627-640 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shi Xianwu ◽  
Qiu Jufei ◽  
Chen Bingrui ◽  
Zhang Xiaojie ◽  
Guo Haoshuang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Coastal County

scholarly journals A Capabilities-Led Approach to Assessing Technological Solutions for a Rural Community

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 1398
Author(s):  
Xinfang Wang ◽  
Rosie Day ◽  
Dan Murrant ◽  
Antonio Diego Marín ◽  
David Castrejón Botello ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Community ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Energy Services ◽  
Grid Systems ◽  
Technological Interventions ◽  
Solution Design ◽  
Improve Access

To improve access to affordable, reliable and sustainable energy in rural areas of the global south, off-grid systems using renewable generation and energy storage are often proposed. However, solution design is often technology-driven, with insufficient consideration of social and cultural contexts. This leads to a risk of unintended consequences and inappropriate systems that do not meet local needs. To address this problem, this paper describes the application of a capabilities-led approach to understanding a community’s multi-dimensional energy poverty and assessing their needs as they see them, in order to better design suitable technological interventions. Data were collected in Tlamacazapa, Mexico, through site visits and focus groups with men and women. These revealed the ways in which constrained energy services undermined essential capabilities, including relating to health, safety, relationships and earning a living, and highlighted the specific ways in which improved energy services, such as lighting, cooking and mechanical power could improve capabilities in the specific context of Tlamacazapa. Based on these findings, we propose some potential technological interventions to address these needs. The case study offers an illustration of an assessment method that could be deployed in a variety of contexts to inform the design of appropriate technological interventions.

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