scholarly journals Forecast of Energy Consumption Based on FGM(1, 1) Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Haijun Chen ◽  
Yanzeng Tong ◽  
Lifeng Wu
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Fuel Oil ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
Coal Consumption ◽  
Gasoline Consumption ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption

The normal supply of energy is related to the stable development of the economy and society. Forecasting energy consumption helps prepare for the normal supply of energy. In the study of energy consumption forecasting, different scholars have used different forecasting models. This paper uses five-year energy consumption data in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and uses the grey fractional FGM(1, 1) model to analyze the next six years. Then, the energy consumption of three places is predicted. The advantage of the grey score FGM(1, 1) model is that it can get more accurate prediction results based on a small amount of information. In this study, relatively outdated information affects the accuracy of prediction results. However, other prediction models have great limitations on data. Choosing the grey number fractional model for prediction research can get a more reasonable prediction result. We use the FGM(1, 1) model to make predictions and get the prediction results. In Beijing, the growth rate of natural gas consumption has slowed down and will be basically stable by 2023. The average annual deceleration of coal consumption is 32%. The average annual deceleration of coke consumption is 10%. Crude oil consumption decreased by 6.3% annually. Gasoline consumption is slowly increasing. The consumption of kerosene increased about 8% annually. Diesel consumption is slowly decreasing. Fuel oil consumption is reduced by 17% annually. The average annual growth rate of power consumption exceeds 6%. In Tianjin, the annual growth rate of natural gas consumption is about 5%. Coal consumption is reduced by about 8% every year. The average annual deceleration of coke consumption is 7%. Crude oil consumption decreased by 2.4% annually. Gasoline consumption is slowly decreasing. The consumption of kerosene has increased by about 20% annually. Diesel consumption is slowly decreasing. Fuel oil consumption is reduced by 20% annually. Electricity consumption is slowly increasing. In Hebei Province, the annual growth rate of natural gas consumption is about 15%. Annual coal consumption is reduced by about 3%. Coke consumption remained stable. Crude oil consumption is reduced by 3% annually. Gasoline consumption is slowly increasing, and kerosene consumption has increased by about 31% annually. Diesel consumption is reduced by about 3% annually. Fuel oil consumption remained stable. Electricity consumption is slowly increasing.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Energy Consumption in the United States: An Overview

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lindsey Kahn ◽  
Hamidreza Najafi
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
The United States ◽  
Average Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
End User ◽  
End Use ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Lockdown measures and mobility restrictions implemented to combat the spread of the novel COVID-19 virus have impacted energy consumption patterns, particularly in the United States. A review of available data and literature on the impact of the pandemic on energy consumption is performed to understand the current knowledge on this topic. The overall decline of energy use during lockdown restrictions can best be identified through the analysis of energy consumption by source and end-user breakdown. Using monthly energy consumption data, the total 9-months use between January and September for the years 2015–2020 are calculated for each end-use. The cumulative consumption within these 9 months of the petroleum, natural gas, biomass, and electricity energy by the various end-use sectors are compared to identify a shift in use throughout time with the calculation of the percent change from 2019 to 2020. The analysis shows that the transportation sector experienced the most dramatic decline, having a subsequent impact on the primary energy it uses. A steep decline in the use of petroleum and natural gas by the transportation sector has had an inevitable impact on the emission of carbon dioxide and other air pollutants during the pandemic. Additionally, the most current data for the consumption of electricity by each state and each end-user in the times before and during the pandemic highlights the impact of specific lockdown procedures on energy use. The average total consumption for each state was found for the years 2015–2019. This result is used calculation of yearly growth rate and average annual growth rate in 2020 for each state and end-user. The total average annual growth rate for 2020 was used to find a correlation coefficient between COVID-19 case and death rates as well as population density and lockdown duration. To further examine the relationship a correlation coefficient was calculated between the 2020 average annual growth rate for all sectors and average annual growth rate for each individual end-user.

Prospects for Planet Earth

2020 ◽  
pp. 273-293
Author(s):  
John Evans
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Good Evidence ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
Solar Power Generation ◽  
Global Population

Here the elemental spheres are considered against the context of plant Earth in 2019. There is good evidence that the global population might reach 11.2 billion by 2100 and stabilise later. The greenhouse emissions per person may have stabilised but the overall direction for anthropogenic emissions is upward. The protections to achieve a limit of 1.5 oC by 2100 envisaged a sharp drop in emissions in the 2020s, and that is not yet projected. Polar ice loss is increasing and annual sea level rise is ca. 3.4 mm. Energy consumption in 2018 was dominated by fossil fuel sources. However, the annual growth rate in renewable energy provision was ca. 15% in that year; the annual growth in solar power generation was ca. 30%. Wind and solar power are evidently the technologies available to effect reductions in emissions in the coming decade.

Coal Consumption and As Emission in Electricity Generation in Qingdao, Shandong

2012 ◽  
Vol 209-211 ◽  
pp. 1843-1846
Author(s):  
Sha Sha Yan ◽  
Tong Jun Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Emission Inventory ◽  
Shandong Province ◽  
Average Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Total Emission ◽  
Coal Consumption

This paper presented coal consumption of electricity generation in Qingdao, Shandong Province, under different energy scenarios with LEAP 2010. And, time-serial emission inventory of As was also built based on fuel consumptions. The results show that the coal consumption will increase by 3.5 times ,amounting to 4.92 million tces under BAU scenario. The total emission of As is 2.7 Mtces with an average annual growth rate of 6.6%.

scholarly journals Determining the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Pakistan

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 322-328
Author(s):  
F. Ali ◽  
Kh. A. Khan ◽  
A. Raza
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Coal Consumption ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption

Energy is substantial for economic development. This study aims to unveil the causal relationship and long-term association between economic growth and energy consumption in Pakistan. The Granger-Causality test finds that; natural gas consumption, electricity consumption and coal consumption have uni-directional causal relationship with economic growth as (GC, EC and CC→GDP), however, GDP growth rate, natural gas consumption and coal consumption unilaterally Granger causes Inflation (GDP, GC and CC→CPI) and lastly coal consumption→natural gas consumption (GC), Electricity consumption (EC)→GC. The ARDL estimations delineate natural gas consumption and oil consumption having a positive and negative association with GDP growth rate may have significant long term impacts respectively on the the economic growth of Pakistan.

Ageing Saudi Population in the Facebook Era

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asharaf Abdul Salam
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Saudi Population ◽  
Aged Population ◽  
Facebook Usage

<p>Data pertaining to 1974, 1992, 2004 and 2010 Censuses in Saudi Arabia was collected. Some reviews and literature on population ageing in Saudi Arabia as well as Facebook usage obtained. Statistics pertaining to Saudi population was utilized.</p> <p>Aged population in 2010 estimated by assuming the annual growth rate of 1974-2004.</p>

scholarly journals Association between triglyceride-glucose index and risk of arterial stiffness: a cohort study

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shouling Wu ◽  
Luli Xu ◽  
Mingyang Wu ◽  
Shuohua Chen ◽  
Youjie Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Arterial Stiffness ◽  
Multivariate Linear Regression ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Tyg Index ◽  
Longitudinal Association ◽  
The Cross

Abstract Background Triglyceride–glucose (TyG) index, a simple surrogate marker of insulin resistance, has been reported to be associated with arterial stiffness. However, previous studies were limited by the cross-sectional design. The purpose of this study was to explore the longitudinal association between TyG index and progression of arterial stiffness. Methods A total of 6028 participants were derived from the Kailuan study. TyG index was calculated as ln [fasting triglyceride (mg/dL) × fasting glucose (mg/dL)/2]. Arterial stiffness was measured using brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV). Arterial stiffness progression was assessed by the annual growth rate of repeatedly measured baPWV. Multivariate linear regression models were used to estimate the cross-sectional association of TyG index with baPWV, and Cox proportional hazard models were used to investigate the longitudinal association between TyG index and the risk of arterial stiffness. Results Multivariate linear regression analyses showed that each one unit increase in the TyG index was associated with a 39 cm/s increment (95%CI, 29–48 cm/s, P < 0.001) in baseline baPWV and a 0.29 percent/year increment (95%CI, 0.17–0.42 percent/year, P < 0.001) in the annual growth rate of baPWV. During 26,839 person-years of follow-up, there were 883 incident cases with arterial stiffness. Participants in the highest quartile of TyG index had a 58% higher risk of arterial stiffness (HR, 1.58; 95%CI, 1.25–2.01, P < 0.001), as compared with those in the lowest quartile of TyG index. Additionally, restricted cubic spline analysis showed a significant dose–response relationship between TyG index and the risk of arterial stiffness (P non-linearity = 0.005). Conclusion Participants with a higher TyG index were more likely to have a higher risk of arterial stiffness. Subjects with a higher TyG index should be aware of the following risk of arterial stiffness progression, so as to establish lifestyle changes at an early stage.

Abstract TP80: Incidence And Risk Factors For The Growth And Rupture Of Unruptured Cerebral Aneurysms. Results Of Annual Radiologic Follow Up Study.

Stroke ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 44 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Katsumi Matsumoto ◽  
Kouichirou Tsuruzono ◽  
Manabu Sasaki ◽  
Noriyasu Yoshimura ◽  
Toshiki Yoshimine ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Cerebral Aneurysms ◽  
Aneurysm Rupture ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Rupture Rate ◽  
Follow Up Study ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Unruptured Cerebral Aneurysms

Background: The recent trend of the treatment of unruptured cerebral aneurysms(UIAs) is going to be conservative. Their natural history of rupture and growth is still unkown. We present the results of annual radiological follow-up study in UIAs. Method: In recent 12 years, we have found 121patients with 148 unruptured cerebral aneurysms were followed annually using 3D-CTA or MRA. Mean follow-up period was 5.5 year. Several factors influencing rupture or growth were statistically examined. Results: Among 121 patients, 9 ruptured and 11 showed growth of UIAs. Annual rupture rate was 1.3% per year and annual growth rate was 1.6% per year. Aneurysm size was the sole factor influencing rupture(P<0.001), whereas female sex and multiplicity were major factors influencing aneurysm growth(P<0.05). Under size 3mm, annual growth rate was 3.0% whereas annual rupture rate was 0.7%. In 4-6mm, growth rate was 1.6% and rupture rate was 1.6%. In 7-9mm, growth rate was 0 and rupture rate was 5.8%. In over 10mm, growth rate was 2.9% and rupture rate was 11.6%. Within 1 year, rupture occurred in 4 cases, and growth was found in 1 case. Conclusions: By annual radiological examination, growth of UIAs was noted more frequently than aneurysm rupture. Especially UIAs under 3mm, growth was 4 times higher than rupture, radiological follow up is effective for aneurysm rupture. Within 1 year, initially found UIAs should be carefully followed in a short interval.

Authorship Pattern and Collaboration Coefficient of Library Professional’s Competency on Research Publications During 1999-2018: A Scientometric Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-89
Author(s):  
Nutan Gaud ◽  
M. P. Singh ◽  
Bhoopendra Singh
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
The United States ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Scientometric Analysis ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Authorship Pattern ◽  
Relative Growth ◽  
Compound Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Scopus Database

The present study aims to analysis authorship pattern and collaboration coefficient of library professional’s competency publications research from 1999-2018. The data has been downloaded by Scopus database. A total number of published articles during the period of study was 433 in the particular database on the topic of ‘professional’s competency’. The study examine various scientometric parameter such as authorship pattern, year wise distribution of publication, determine the annual growth rate and compound annual growth rate of publication, relative growth rate and doubling time of publication and so many. After the analysis, it is found that the highest 11.78% of an article published in the year 2015. The highest growth rate in 2000 and the lowest in 1999. The United States published highest 174 article and secured first place in top five countries wish distribution of the publication. Majority of the article is published by single authors is 171 articles during the period of study.

Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on the Currency Exchanges of Selected Countries

2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 73-91
Author(s):  
Sudhi Sharma ◽  
Miklesh Prasad Yadav ◽  
Babita Jha
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Conditional Heteroskedasticity ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Dummy Variable ◽  
Currency Market ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity ◽  
The Impact

The paper aims to analyse the impact of the COVID outbreak on the currency market. The study considers spot rates of seven major currencies (i.e., EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, and CHF/JPY). To capture the impact of the outbreak on returns and the volatility of returns of seven currencies during pandemic, the study has segregated in two window periods (i.e., pre- [1st Jan 2019 to 31st Dec, 2019] and post-outbreak of COVID-19 [1st Jan, 2020 to 22nd Dec, 2020]). The study has applied various methods and models (i.e., econometric-based compounded annual growth rate [CAGR], dummy variable regression, and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity [GARCH]). The result of the study captures the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on three currencies—USD/JPY, AUD/USD, and USD/CHF—and positive significant impact on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, and CHF/JPY. Investors can take short position in these while having long position in other currencies. The inferences drawn from the analysis are providing insight to investors and hedgers.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document