Policy and Law Assessment of COVID-19 Based on Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model

As of the end of October 2020, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 has exceeded 45 million and the cumulative number of deaths has exceeded 1.1 million all over the world. Faced with the fatal pandemic, countries around the world have taken various prevention and control measures. One of the important issues in epidemic prevention and control is the assessment of the prevention and control effectiveness. Changes in the time series of daily new confirmed cases can reflect the impact of policies in certain regions. In this paper, a smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model is applied to investigate the intrinsic changes during the epidemic in certain countries and regions. In order to quantitatively evaluate the influence of the epidemic control measures, the sequence is fitted to the STAR model; then, comparisons between the dates of transition points and those of releasing certain policies are applied. Our model well fits the data. Moreover, the nonlinear smooth function within the STAR model reveals that the implementation of prevention and control policies is effective in some regions with different speeds. However, the ineffectiveness is also revealed and the threat of a second wave had already emerged.

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Knowledge and Awareness of Dengue Fever

International Journal of Scientific Research in Computer Science Engineering and Information Technology ◽

10.32628/cseit183865 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 219-222

Author(s):

Y. Arockia Suganthi ◽

Chitra K. ◽

J. Magelin Mary

Keyword(s):

Dengue Fever ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Control Measures ◽

Infection Transmission ◽

Standard Guideline ◽

The World ◽

Different Types ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

Dengue Prevention ◽

And Control

Dengue fever is a painful mosquito-borne infection caused by different types of virus in various localities of the world. There is no particular medicine or vaccine to treat person suffering from dengue fever. Dengue viruses are transmitted by the bite of female Aedes (Ae) mosquitoes. Dengue fever viruses are mainly transmitted by Aedes which can be active in tropical or subtropical climates. Aedes Aegypti is the key step to avoid infection transmission to save millions of people in all over the world. This paper provides a standard guideline in the planning of dengue prevention and control measures. At the same time gives the priorities including clinical management and hospitalized dengue patients have to address essentially.

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The Impact of COVID-19 on Pedestrian Flow Patterns in Urban POIs—An Example from Beijing

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information ◽

10.3390/ijgi10070479 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (7) ◽

pp. 479

Author(s):

Yihang Li ◽

Liyan Xu

Keyword(s):

Prevention And Control ◽

Control Period ◽

Flow Patterns ◽

Control Measures ◽

Pedestrian Flow ◽

Prevention Measures ◽

Government Control ◽

Functional Categories ◽

And Control ◽

The Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic is a major challenge for society as a whole, and analyzing the impact of the spread of the epidemic and government control measures on the travel patterns of urban residents can provide powerful help for city managers to designate top-level epidemic prevention policies and specific epidemic prevention measures. This study investigates whether it is more appropriate to use groups of POIs with similar pedestrian flow patterns as the unit of study rather than functional categories of POIs. In this study, we analyzed the hour-by-hour pedestrian flow data of key locations in Beijing before, during, and after the strict epidemic prevention and control period, and we found that the pedestrian flow patterns differed greatly in different periods by using a composite clustering index; we interpreted the clustering results from two perspectives: groups of pedestrian flow patterns and functional categories. The results show that depending on the specific stage of epidemic prevention and control, the number of unique pedestrian flow patterns decreased from four before the epidemic to two during the strict control stage and then increased to six during the initial resumption of work. The restrictions on movement are correlated with most of the visitations, and the release of restrictions led to an increase in the variety of unique pedestrian flow patterns compared to that in the pre-restriction period, even though the overall number of visitations decreased, indicating that social restrictions led to differences in the flow patterns of POIs and increased social distance.

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Impact of the Inflow Population From Outbreak Areas on the COVID-19 Epidemic in Yunnan Province and the Recommended Control Measures: A Preliminary Study

Frontiers in Public Health ◽

10.3389/fpubh.2020.609974 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

Author(s):

Zhong Sun ◽

Guozhong He ◽

Ninghao Huang ◽

Hongyu Chen ◽

Shuwei Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Prevention And Control ◽

Yunnan Province ◽

Clinical Manifestations ◽

Control Measures ◽

Proper Management ◽

Outbreak Areas ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

And Gender ◽

And Control ◽

The Impact

Background: COVID-19 developed into a global pandemic in 2020 and poses challenges regarding the prevention and control capabilities of countries. A large number of inbound travelers from other regions could lead to a renewed outbreak of COVID-19 in the local regions. Globally, as a result of the imbalance in the control of the epidemic, all countries are facing the risk of a renewed COVID-19 outbreak brought about by travelers from epidemic areas. Therefore, studies on a proper management of the inbound travelers are urgent.Methods: We collected a total of 4,733,414 inbound travelers and 174 COVID-19 diagnosed patients in Yunnan province from 21 January 2020 to 20 February 2020. Data on place of origin, travel history, age, and gender, as well as whether they had suspected clinical manifestations for inbound travelers in Yunnan were collected. The impact of inbound travelers on the local epidemic was analyzed with a collinear statistical analysis and the effect of the control measures on the epidemic was evaluated with a sophisticated modeling approach.Results: Of the 174 COVID-19 patients, 60.9% were not from Yunnan, and 76.4% had a history of travel in Hubei. The amount of new daily cases in Yunnan was significant correlated with the number of inbound travelers from Hubei and suspected cases among them. Using Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered (SEIR) model analysis, we found that the prevention and control measures dropped the local R0 down to 1.07 in Yunnan province.Conclusions: Our preliminary analysis showed that the proper management of inbound travelers from outbreak areas has a significantly positive effect on the prevention and control of the virus. In the process of resettlement, some effective measures taken by Yunnan province may provide an important reference for preventing the renewed COVID-19 outbreak in other regions.

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A Cross-sectional Study on the Impact of the Prevention and Control Response of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Children's Orthopedic Trauma in Shanghai

10.21203/rs.3.rs-118305/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Chuang Qian ◽

Yiming Zheng ◽

Junrong Meng ◽

Hao Li ◽

Dahui Wang

Keyword(s):

Radial Head ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Control Measures ◽

Chinese Government ◽

Study Cohort ◽

Orthopedic Trauma ◽

Control Response ◽

Open Injuries ◽

And Control ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background: The Chinese government has taken strong prevention and control measures against the COVID-19 pandemic, and has achieved phased victory in the fight against it. The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic provides an opportunity to study the influence of governmental prevention and control response on orthopedic trauma in children.Methods: We collected and reviewed data on orthopedic trauma from the first half of 2018, 2019, and 2020. The data were divided according to the time of prevention and control response level in 2020. By comparing the relevant data from orthopedic emergency and operating rooms from the past three years, the influence of governmental pandemic prevention measures on orthopedic trauma in children was analyzed. Results: A total of 36301 children were included in the study cohort. Before the prevention and control response, the data of the orthopedic emergency department in 2020 was the same as the previous two years. Under the first-level response, the number of fractures, open injuries, radial head subluxation, and surgery were significantly reduced, and the severity of patients with surgery was also significantly reduced. Under the second-level response, the number of operations began to increase, and the severity of the disease also began to rise. Under the third-level response control, the number of fractures, open injuries, and operations have returned to the levels of the previous two years. The severity of the operation has also returned to its previous level. The number of subluxations of the radial head is still different from before.Conclusion: The pandemic of COVID-19 has affected the social activities of Shanghai residents and reduced the incidence of orthopedic trauma in children. With the control of the pandemic, the living conditions of Shanghai residents have basically recovered.Level of Evidence: Retrospective study Level II

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Changes in Prevalence of Nosocomial Infection Pre- and Post-COVID-19 pandemic from a Tertiary Hospital in China

10.21203/rs.3.rs-228202/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Chunmei Su ◽

Zhiqin Zhang ◽

Xu Zhao ◽

Hanlin Peng ◽

Yi Hong ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Nosocomial Infection ◽

Nosocomial Infections ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Control Measures ◽

Gastrointestinal Infections ◽

Effective Prevention ◽

Oral Infections ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

And Control ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background: Nosocomial infections (NIs) are an important cause of mortality, and increasing evidence reveals that the prevalence of NIs can be reduced through effective prevention and control measures. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of the prevention and control measures for the COVID-19 pandemic on NIs.Methods: A retrospective study was conducted to analyze the prevalence of NIs before and after COVID-19 pandemic for six months in the Children’s Hospital of Soochow University.Results: A total of 39,914 patients in 2019 and 34,645 patients in 2020 were admitted to the hospital during the study. There were 1.39% (481/34645) of patients with NIs in 2020, which was significantly lower than the 2.56% (1021/39914) of patients in 2019. The rate of critical and fatal cases was also decreased. Except for the ICU, the prevalence of nosocomial infection in most departments decreased from 2019 to 2020. Regarding the source of infections, a significant reduction was mainly observed in respiratory (0.99% vs 0.42%, p=0.000) and digestive tract (0.63% vs 0.14%, p=0.000). The microorganism analysis of respiratory infections indicated an obvious decline in acinetobacters and fungi. The most significant decline of pathogens in gastrointestinal infections was observed for rotavirus. The comparison of catheter-related nosocomial infections between 2019 and 2020 did not show significant differences. Conclusions: The prevention and control measures for the COVID-19 pandemic have reduced the nosocomial infection in almost all departments, except the ICU, mainly regarding respiratory, gastrointestinal, and oral infections, while catheter-related infections did not show any differences.

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The impact of management practices to prevent and control mycotoxins in the European food supply chain: MyToolBox project results

World Mycotoxin Journal ◽

10.3920/wmj2020.2588 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (2) ◽

pp. 139-154

Author(s):

M. Focker ◽

H.J. van der Fels-Klerx ◽

N. Magan ◽

S.G. Edwards ◽

M. Grahovac ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Supply Chain ◽

Impact Assessment ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Control Measures ◽

Economic Losses ◽

Crop Losses ◽

Mycotoxin Contamination ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

And Control ◽

The Impact

The presence of mycotoxins in cereals has led to large economic losses in Europe. In the course of the European project MyToolBox, prevention and control measures to reduce mycotoxin contamination in cereals were developed. This study aimed to estimate the impact of these prevention and control measures on both the reduction in crop losses and the increased volume of crops suitable for food and/or feed. It focused on the following measures: the use of fungicides during wheat cultivation, the use of resistant maize cultivars and/or biocontrol during maize cultivation, the use of real time sensors in storage silos, the use of innovative milling strategies during the pasta making process, and the employment of degrading enzymes during the process of bioethanol and Dried Distillers Grains with Solubles (DDGS) production. The impact assessment was based on the annual volume of cereals produced, the annual levels of mycotoxin contamination, and experimental data on the prevention and control measures collected in the course of the MyToolBox project. Results are expressed in terms of reduced volumes of cereals lost, or as additional volumes of cereals available for food meeting the current European legal limits. Results showed that a reduction in crop losses as well as an increase in the volume of crops suitable as food and/or feed is feasible with each proposed prevention or control measure along the supply chain. The impact was the largest in areas and in years with the highest mycotoxin contamination levels but would have less impact in years with low mycotoxin levels. In further research, the impact assessment may be validated using future data from more years and European sites. Decision makers in the food and feed supply chain can use this impact assessment to decide on the relevant prevention and control strategies to apply.

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Atmospheric Relative Humidity Can Increase the Spread of COVID-19

10.21203/rs.3.rs-41016/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Qing Zheng ◽

Lei Wang ◽

Hongbin Wang ◽

Wenjing Gui

Keyword(s):

Relative Humidity ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Meteorological Factors ◽

Control Measures ◽

The World ◽

Research Findings ◽

Atmospheric Relative Humidity ◽

Increasing Risk ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

And Control

Abstract COVID-19 has been spreading around the world since the end of 2019, and there is no sign of a slowdown. Previous studies on seasonality of similar infectious diseases have hinted that meteorological factors may influence COVID-19 outbreaks as well1. Here we show, based on data collected in 132 cities of China, that relative humidity, as an essential meteorological indicator, is positively correlated with the growth rate of incidence of COVID-19, which contradicts previous research findings. Our result suggests an increasing risk of COVID-19 cases as summer and rain seasons arrive in many places of the world. They also help countries and regions to formulate pandemic prevention and control measures and policies according to local meteorological characteristics.

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Policy disparities in response to COVID-19 between Singapore and China

International Journal for Equity in Health ◽

10.1186/s12939-021-01525-z ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 20 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Xiaohan Wang ◽

Leiyu Shi ◽

Yuyao Zhang ◽

Haiqian Chen ◽

Gang Sun

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Urban Communities ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Central Government ◽

Control Measures ◽

Cumulative Number ◽

Control Policies ◽

Response Strategies ◽

Set Up ◽

And Control

Abstract Objective The study analyzed the common points and discrepancies of COVID-19 control measures of the two countries in order to provide appropriate coping experiences for countries all over the world. Method This study examined the associations between the epidemic prevention and control policies adopted in the first 70 days after the outbreak and the number of confirmed cases in China and Singapore using the generalized linear model. Policy comparisons and disparities between the two countries were also discussed. Results The regression models show that factors influencing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in China: Locking down epicenter; activating Level One public health emergency response in all localities; the central government set up a leading group; classified management of “four categories of personnel”; launching makeshift hospitals; digital management for a matrix of urban communities; counterpart assistance. The following four factors were the key influencing factors of the cumulative confirmed cases in Singapore: The National Centre for Infectious Diseases screening center opens; border control measures; surveillance measures; Public Health Preparedness Clinics launched. Conclusions Through analyzing the key epidemic prevention and control policies of the two countries, we found that the following factors are critical to combat COVID-19: active case detection, early detection of patients, timely isolation, and treatment, and increasing of medical capabilities. Countries should choose appropriate response strategies with health equity in mind to ultimately control effectively the spread of COVID-19 worldwide.

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Research about the optimal strategies for prevention and control of varicella outbreak in a school in a central city of China: based on an SEIR dynamic model

Epidemiology and Infection ◽

10.1017/s0950268819002188 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 148 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Wen-ting Zha ◽

Feng-rui Pang ◽

Nan Zhou ◽

Bin Wu ◽

Ying Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Dynamic Model ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Model Simulation ◽

Central City ◽

Control Measures ◽

Peak Time ◽

Cumulative Number ◽

And Control ◽

Epidemiological Characteristics ◽

Combined Interventions

Abstract Varicella is an acute respiratory infectious diseases, with high transmissibility and quick dissemination. In this study, an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) dynamic model was established to explore the optimal prevention and control measures according to the epidemiological characteristics about varicella outbreak in a school in a central city of China. Berkeley Madonna 8.3.18 and Microsoft Office Excel 2010 software were employed for the model simulation and data management, respectively. The result showed that the simulated result of SEIR model agreed well with the reported data when β (infected rate) equal to 0.067. Models showed that the cumulative number of cases was only 13 when isolation adopted when the infected individuals were identified (assuming isolation rate was up to 100%); the cumulative number of cases was only two and the TAR (total attack rate) was 0.56% when the vaccination coefficient reached 50%. The cumulative number of cases did not change significantly with the change of efficiency of ventilation and disinfection, but the peak time was delayed; when δ (vaccination coefficient) = 0.1, m (ventilation efficiency) = 0.7 or δ = 0.2, m = 0.5 or δ = 0.3, m = 0.1 or δ = 0.4 and above, the cumulative number of cases would reduce to one case and TAR would reduce to 0.28% with combined interventions. Varicella outbreak in school could be controlled through strict isolation or vaccination singly; combined interventions have been adopted when the vaccination coefficient was low.

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Repercussions of the COVID-19 Health Crisis In the Peruvian Informal Sector

The Journal of Economics Studies and Research ◽

10.5171/2021.948031 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-9

Author(s):

Vilma Andia-Choquepuma ◽

Daniza Juana Leon-Escobedo ◽

Himer Avila-George ◽

orge Sánchez-Garcés ◽

Ruth Elizabeth Villafuerte-Alcántara ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Prevention And Control ◽

Preventive Measures ◽

Control Measures ◽

World Health ◽

Health Crisis ◽

Entry Points ◽

The World ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

Health Organization ◽

And Control

After the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of Coronavirus (COVID-19) a pandemic, the Peruvian government took preventive measures to counteract the spread of the virus by issuing Supreme Decree No. 008-2020-SA. This decree contains prevention and control measures aimed at ports, airports, land entry points, educational centers, transportation and workplaces.

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