scholarly journals Modelling the COVID-19 Mortality Rate with a New Versatile Modification of the Log-Logistic Distribution

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Abdisalam Hassan Muse ◽  
Ahlam H. Tolba ◽  
Eman Fayad ◽  
Ola A. Abu Ali ◽  
M. Nagy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Logistic Distribution ◽  
Parameter Distribution ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Failure Rate Function ◽  
Competing Models ◽  
Two Parameter

The goal of this paper is to develop an optimal statistical model to analyze COVID-19 data in order to model and analyze the COVID-19 mortality rates in Somalia. Combining the log-logistic distribution and the tangent function yields the flexible extension log-logistic tangent (LLT) distribution, a new two-parameter distribution. This new distribution has a number of excellent statistical and mathematical properties, including a simple failure rate function, reliability function, and cumulative distribution function. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is used to estimate the unknown parameters of the proposed distribution. A numerical and visual result of the Monte Carlo simulation is obtained to evaluate the use of the MLE method. In addition, the LLT model is compared to the well-known two-parameter, three-parameter, and four-parameter competitors. Gompertz, log-logistic, kappa, exponentiated log-logistic, Marshall–Olkin log-logistic, Kumaraswamy log-logistic, and beta log-logistic are among the competing models. Different goodness-of-fit measures are used to determine whether the LLT distribution is more useful than the competing models in COVID-19 data of mortality rate analysis.

scholarly journals A New Lifetime Distribution and Its Power Transformation

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Ammar M. Sarhan ◽  
Lotfi Tadj ◽  
David C. Hamilton
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Failure Rate ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Parameter Distribution ◽  
Power Transformation ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Failure Rate Function ◽  
The One ◽  
Two Parameter ◽  
Parameter Distributions

New one-parameter and two-parameter distributions are introduced in this paper. The failure rate of the one-parameter distribution is unimodal (upside-down bathtub), while the failure rate of the two-parameter distribution can be decreasing, increasing, unimodal, increasing-decreasing-increasing, or decreasing-increasing-decreasing, depending on the values of its two parameters. The two-parameter distribution is derived from the one-parameter distribution by using a power transformation. We discuss some properties of these two distributions, such as the behavior of the failure rate function, the probability density function, the moments, skewness, and kurtosis, and limiting distributions of order statistics. Maximum likelihood estimation for the two-parameter model using complete samples is investigated. Different algorithms for generating random samples from the two new models are given. Applications to real data are discussed and compared with the fit attained by some one- and two-parameter distributions. Finally, a simulation study is carried out to investigate the mean square error of the maximum likelihood estimators, the coverage probability, and the width of the confidence intervals of the unknown parameters.

scholarly journals The Hamza Distribution with Statistical Properties and Applications

2020 ◽  
pp. 28-42
Author(s):  
Ahmad Aijaz ◽  
Muzamil Jallal ◽  
S. Qurat Ul Ain ◽  
Rajnee Tripathi
Keyword(s):  
Cumulative Distribution Function ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Moment Generating Function ◽  
Rate Function ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Parameter Distribution ◽  
Residual Function ◽  
Lorenz Curves ◽  
Method Of Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Two Parameter

This paper suggested a new two parameter distribution named as Hamza distribution. A detailed description about the properties of a suggested distribution including moments, moment generating function, deviations about mean and median, stochastic orderings, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, Renyi entropy, order statistics, hazard rate function and mean residual function has been discussed. The behavior of a probability density function (p.d.f) and cumulative distribution function (c.d.f) have been depicted through graphs. The parameters of the distribution are estimated by the known method of maximum likelihood estimation. The performance of the established distribution have been illustrated through applications, by which we conclude that the established distribution provide better fit.

scholarly journals Maximum Product of Spacing Parameter Estimation of Gompertz Rayleigh Distribution and Application to Rainfall Datasets

2021 ◽  
pp. 41-59
Author(s):  
Hussein Ahmad Abdulsalam ◽  
Sule Omeiza Bashiru ◽  
Alhaji Modu Isa ◽  
Yunusa Adavi Ojirobe
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Statistical Properties ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Exponentiated Weibull ◽  
Integrated Hazard

Gompertz Rayleigh (GomR) distribution was introduced in an earlier study with few statistical properties derived and parameters estimated using only the most common traditional method, Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). This paper aimed at deriving more statistical properties of the GomR distribution, estimating the three unknown parameters via a competitive method, Maximum Product of Spacing (MPS) and evaluating goodness of fit using rainfall data sets from Nigeria, Malaysia and Argentina. Properties of statistical distributions including distribution of smallest and largest order statistics, cumulative or integrated hazard function, odds function, rth non-central moments, moment generating function, mean, variance and entropy measures for GomR distribution were explicitly derived. The fitted data sets reveal the flexibility of GomR distribution over other distributions been compared with. Simulation study was used to evaluate the consistency, accuracy and unbiasedness of the GomR distribution parameter estimates obtained from the method of MPS. The study found that GomR distribution could not provide a better fit for Argentine rainfall data but it was the best distribution for the rainfall data sets from Nigeria and Malaysia in comparison with the distributions; Generalized Weibull Rayleigh (GWR), Exponentiated Weibull Rayleigh (EWR), Type (II) Topp Leone Generalized Inverse Rayleigh (TIITLGIR), Kumarawamy Exponential Inverse Raylrigh (KEIR), Negative Binomial Marshall-Olkin Rayleigh (NBMOR) and Exponentiated Weibull (EW). Furthermore, the estimates from MPSE were consistent as the sample size increases but not as efficient as those from MLE.

scholarly journals A New Extended Two-Parameter Distribution: Properties, Estimation Methods, and Applications in Medicine and Geology

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 1578 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hazem Al-Mofleh ◽  
Ahmed Z. Afify ◽  
Noor Akma Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Estimation Method ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Parameter Distribution ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Rate Functions ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Modeling Data ◽  
Two Parameter

In this paper, a new two-parameter generalized Ramos–Louzada distribution is proposed. The proposed model provides more flexibility in modeling data with increasing, decreasing, J-shaped, and reversed-J shaped hazard rate functions. Several statistical properties of the model were derived. The unknown parameters of the new distribution were explored using eight frequentist estimation approaches. These approaches are important for developing guidelines to choose the best method of estimation for the model parameters, which would be of great interest to practitioners and applied statisticians. Detailed numerical simulations are presented to examine the bias and the mean square error of the proposed estimators. The best estimation method and ordering performance of the estimators were determined using the partial and overall ranks of all estimation methods for various parameter combinations. The performance of the proposed distribution is illustrated using two real datasets from the fields of medicine and geology, and both datasets show that the new model is more appropriate as compared to the Marshall–Olkin exponential, exponentiated exponential, beta exponential, gamma, Poisson–Lomax, Lindley geometric, generalized Lindley, and Lindley distributions, among others.

The Odd Log-Logistic Log-Normal Distribution with Theory and Applications

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (04) ◽  
pp. 1850009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gamze Ozel ◽  
Emrah Altun ◽  
Morad Alizadeh ◽  
Mahdieh Mozafari
Keyword(s):  
Normal Distribution ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Estimation Procedure ◽  
Quantile Function ◽  
Logistic Distribution ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Heavy Tailed ◽  
Log Normal ◽  
Log Normal Distribution

In this paper, a new heavy-tailed distribution is used to model data with a strong right tail, as often occuring in practical situations. The proposed distribution is derived from the log-normal distribution, by using odd log-logistic distribution. Statistical properties of this distribution, including hazard function, moments, quantile function, and asymptotics, are derived. The unknown parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation procedure. For different parameter settings and sample sizes, a simulation study is performed and the performance of the new distribution is compared to beta log-normal. The new lifetime model can be very useful and its superiority is illustrated by means of two real data sets.

scholarly journals Zero-Truncated Discrete Two-Parameter Poisson-Lindley Distribution with Applications

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 76-85
Author(s):  
Rama Shanker ◽  
Kamlesh Kumar Shukla
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Poisson Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Continuous Distribution ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Lindley Distribution ◽  
Coefficients Of Variation ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Two Parameter

A zero-truncated discrete two-parameter Poisson-Lindley distribution (ZTDTPPLD), which includes zero-truncated Poisson-Lindley distribution (ZTPLD) as a particular case, has been introduced. The proposed distribution has been obtained by compounding size-biased Poisson distribution (SBPD) with a continuous distribution. Its raw moments and central moments have been given. The coefficients of variation, skewness, kurtosis, and index of dispersion have been obtained and their nature and behavior have been studied graphically. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) has been discussed for estimating its parameters. The goodness of fit of ZTDTPPLD has been discussed with some data sets and the fit shows satisfactory over zero – truncated Poisson distribution (ZTPD) and ZTPLD. Journal of Institute of Science and TechnologyVolume 22, Issue 2, January 2018, Page: 76-85

scholarly journals Goodness of Fit Tests for the Log-Logistic Distribution Based on Cumulative Entropy under Progressive Type II Censoring

Mathematics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 361 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuge Du ◽  
Wenhao Gui
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Logistic Distribution ◽  
Type Ii ◽  
Type Ii Censoring ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Tests ◽  
Progressive Type ◽  
Leibler Information ◽  
Cumulative Residual ◽  
Progressive Type Ii Censoring

In this paper, we propose two new methods to perform goodness-of-fit tests on the log-logistic distribution under progressive Type II censoring based on the cumulative residual Kullback-Leibler information and cumulative Kullback-Leibler information. Maximum likelihood estimation and the EM algorithm are used for statistical inference of the unknown parameter. The Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to study the power analysis on the alternative distributions of the hazard function monotonically increasing and decreasing. Finally, we present illustrative examples to show the applicability of the proposed methods.

Forecasting Thai Mortality by Using the Lee-Carter Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Natthasurang Yasungnoen ◽  
Pairote Sattayatham
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
General Index ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Value Decomposition ◽  
Carter Model

AbstractIn this paper, we model the mortality rate in Thailand by using the Lee-Carter model. Three classical methods, i.e. Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), Weighted Least Square (WLS), and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) are used to estimate the parameters of the Lee-Carter model. With these methods, we investigate the goodness of fit for the mortality rate spanning the period 2003 to 2012. The fitted models are compared. The autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) is used to forecast the general index and mortality rate the time period from 2013 to 2022. As a result, we also forecast Thai life expectancy at birth.

Maximum likelihood estimation for uncertain autoregressive model with application to carbon dioxide emissions

2021 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 1391-1399
Author(s):  
Dan Chen ◽  
Xiangfeng Yang
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Autoregressive Model ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Uncertain Variables

The objective of uncertain time series analysis is to explore the relationship between the imprecise observation data over time and to predict future values, where these data are uncertain variables in the sense of uncertainty theory. In this paper, the method of maximum likelihood is used to estimate the unknown parameters in the uncertain autoregressive model, and the unknown parameters of uncertainty distributions of the disturbance terms are simultaneously obtained. Based on the fitted autoregressive model, the forecast value and confidence interval of the future data are derived. Besides, the mean squared error is proposed to measure the goodness of fit among different estimation methods, and an algorithm is introduced. Finally, the comparative analysis of the least squares, least absolute deviations, and maximum likelihood estimations are given, and two examples are presented to verify the feasibility of this approach.

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