Predictability problems of global change as seen through natural systems complexity description. 1. General Statements

The overall problem of global change is considered as the mathematical discrete dynamics discipline that deals with the sets, measures and metrics (SMM) categories in information sub-spaces. The SMM conception enables to unify techniques of data interpretation and analysis and to explain how effectively the giant amounts of information from multispectral satellite radiometers and ground-based instruments are to be processed. It is shown that Prigogine's chaos/order theory and Kolmogorov's probability space are two milestones in understanding the predictability problems of global change. The essence of the problems is maintained to be in filtering out a “useful signal” that would spread from key regions of the globe as compared to their background. Global analysis, interpretation and modelling issues are outlined in the framework of incorrect mathematical problems and of the SMM categories, which contribute to solving the comparability problem for different sets of observations.

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The Human Dimensions of Global Change

Geography in America at the Dawn of the 21st Century ◽

10.1093/oso/9780198233923.003.0029 ◽

2004 ◽

Author(s):

Diana Liverman ◽

Brent Yarnal

Keyword(s):

Global Change ◽

Environmental Change ◽

Large Scale ◽

Information Science ◽

Global Environmental Change ◽

Human Dimensions ◽

Water Diversion ◽

Human Environment ◽

Natural Systems ◽

Global Environmental

The human–environment condition has emerged as one of the central issues of the new millennium, especially as it has become apparent that human activity is transforming nature at a global scale in both systemic and cumulative ways. Originating with concerns about potential climate warming, the global environmental change agenda rapidly enlarged to include changes in structure and function of the earth’s natural systems, notably those systems critical for life, and the policy implications of these changes, especially focused on the coupled human–environment system. Recognition of the unprecedented pace, magnitude, and spatial scale of global change, and of the pivotal role of humankind in creating and responding to it, has led to the emergence of a worldwide, interdisciplinary effort to understand the human dimensions of global change. The term “global change” now encompasses a range of research issues including those relating to economic, political, and cultural globalization, but in this chapter we limit our focus to global environmental change and to the field that has become formally known as the human dimensions of global (or global environmental) change. We also focus mainly on the work of geographers rather than attempting to review the whole human dimensions research community. Intellectually, geography is well positioned to contribute to global environmental change research (Liverman 1999). The large-scale human transformation of the planet through activities such as agriculture, deforestation, water diversion, fossil fuel use, and urbanization, and the impacts of these on living conditions through changes in, for example, climate and biodiversity, has highlighted the importance of scholarship that analyzes the human–environmental relationship and can inform policy. Geography is one of the few disciplines that has historically claimed human–environment relationships as a definitional component of itself (Glacken 1967; Marsh 1864) and has fostered a belief in and reward system for engaging integrative approaches to problem solving (Golledge 2002; Turner 2002). Moreover, global environmental change is intimately spatial and draws upon geography-led remote sensing and geographic information science (Liverman et al. 1998). Geographers anticipated the emergence of current global change concerns (Thomas et al. 1956; Burton et al. 1978) and were seminal in the development of the multidisciplinary programs of study into the human dimensions of global change.

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Beyond Modeling: A Roadmap to Community Cyberinfrastructure for Ecological Data-Model Integration

10.20944/preprints202001.0176.v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Istem Fer ◽

Anthony K. Gardella ◽

Alexey N. Shiklomanov ◽

Shawn P. Serbin ◽

Martin G. De Kauwe ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Global Change ◽

21St Century ◽

Data Model ◽

Model Integration ◽

Science And Society ◽

Model Data ◽

Ecological Data ◽

New Era ◽

Natural Systems ◽

New Knowledge

In an era of rapid global change, our ability to understand and predict Earth's natural systems is lagging behind our ability to monitor and measure changes in the biosphere. Bottlenecks in our ability to process information have reduced our capacity to fully exploit the growing volume and variety of data. Here, we take a critical look at the information infrastructure that connects modeling and measurement efforts, and propose a roadmap that accelerates production of new knowledge. We propose that community cyberinfrastructure tools can help mend the divisions between empirical research and modeling, and accelerate the pace of discovery. A new era of data-model integration requires investment in accessible, scalable, transparent tools that integrate the expertise of the whole community, not just a clique of ‘modelers’. This roadmap focuses on five key opportunities for community tools: the underlying backbone to community cyberinfrastructure; data ingest; calibration of models to data; model-data benchmarking; and data assimilation and ecological forecasting. This community-driven approach is key to meeting the pressing needs of science and society in the 21st century.

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Sustainability of tropical river systems in Colombia, Integrating geomorphology, hydrology and vegetation analysis in the context of global change

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-12576 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Masiel Pereira ◽

Germán Vargas

Keyword(s):

Global Change ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Tropical Rivers ◽

Human Beings ◽

River Systems ◽

Tropical River ◽

Channel Change ◽

Natural Systems ◽

Geomorphological Units ◽

Relationship Of

Tropical rivers are fundamental elements of global hydrosphere, hydrological cycle, Earth natural systems and social system. Tropical rivers are one of the main sources of supply and availability of drinking water, generating multiple direct and indirect contributions to ecosystems and society. Anthropic pressures on tropical river systems, such as canalization, construction of lateral dams, dams, floodplain occupation, among others, generate alterations in the morphology of the channel, change sediment dynamics, and disturb ecosystems and interrelationships between them and the hydrological regimes and geomorphological units. These anthropogenic transformations can generate unpredictable changes, not linear in the medium and long term, and can become irreversible. In this light, this PhD research in Geography, analyze the relationships between geomorphology, hydrology and vegetation that occur in the middle basins of four main rivers in Colombia: Meta, Sinu, Magdalena and Cauca, assessing the vulnerability of tropical river systems in Colombia taking into account the historical relationship of human beings and rivers generating guidelines for management and sustainability of water resources in Colombia, in a context of global change, based on scientific knowledge, which allows criteria for decision-making for its management, use and conservation.

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Reflecting on the Anthropocene: The Call for Deeper Transformations

AMBIO ◽

10.1007/s13280-020-01468-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Karen O’Brien

Keyword(s):

Global Change ◽

Environmental Change ◽

Meaning Making ◽

Global Environmental Change ◽

50Th Anniversary ◽

Human Environment ◽

Cultural Narrative ◽

Natural Systems ◽

Global Change Research ◽

Anniversary Issue

AbstractResearch on global environmental change has transformed the way that we think about human-environment relationships and Earth system processes. The four Ambio articles highlighted in this 50th Anniversary Issue have influenced the cultural narrative on environmental change, highlighting concepts such as “resilience,” “coupled human and natural systems”, and the “Anthropocene.” In this peer response, I argue that global change research is still paying insufficient attention to how to deliberately transform systems and cultures to avoid the risks that science itself has warned us about. In particular, global change research has failed to adequately integrate the subjective realm of meaning making into both understanding and action. Although this has been an implicit subtext in global change research, it is time to fully integrate research from the social sciences and environmental humanities.

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Bistability of buoyancy-driven exchange flows in vertical tubes

Journal of Fluid Mechanics ◽

10.1017/jfm.2018.382 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 850 ◽

pp. 525-550 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Jenny Suckale ◽

Zhipeng Qin ◽

Davide Picchi ◽

Tobias Keller ◽

Ilenia Battiato

Keyword(s):

Experimental Data ◽

Annular Flow ◽

Laboratory Experiments ◽

Classical Problem ◽

Data Interpretation ◽

Analytical Models ◽

Natural Systems ◽

Exchange Flows ◽

Basic Features ◽

Vertical Tubes

Buoyancy-driven exchange flows are common to a variety of natural and engineering systems, ranging from persistently active volcanoes to counterflows in oceanic straits. Laboratory experiments of exchange flows have been used as surrogates to elucidate the basic features of such flows. The resulting data have been analysed and interpreted mostly through core–annular flow solutions, the most common flow configuration at finite viscosity contrasts. These models have been successful in fitting experimental data, but less effective at explaining the variability observed in natural systems. In this paper, we demonstrate that some of the variability observed in laboratory experiments and natural systems is a consequence of the inherent bistability of core–annular flow. Using a core–annular solution to the classical problem of buoyancy-driven exchange flows in vertical tubes, we identify two mathematically valid solutions at steady state: a solution with fast flow in a thin core and a solution with relatively slow flow in a thick core. The theoretical existence of two solutions, however, does not necessarily imply that the system is bistable in the sense that flow switching may occur. Through direct numerical simulations, we confirm the hypothesis that core–annular flow in vertical tubes is inherently bistable. Our simulations suggest that the bistability of core–annular flow is linked to the boundary conditions of the domain, which implies that is not possible to predict the realized flow field from the material parameters of the fluids and the tube geometry alone. Our finding that buoyancy-driven exchange flows are inherently bistable systems is consistent with previous experimental data, but is in contrast to the underlying hypothesis of previous analytical models that the solution is unique and can be identified by maximizing the flux or extremizing the dissipation in the system. Our results have important implications for data interpretation by analytical models and may also have interesting ramifications for understanding volcanic degassing.

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Towards Standardization of Data Normalization Strategies to Improve Urinary Metabolomics Studies by GC×GC-TOFMS

Metabolites ◽

10.3390/metabo10090376 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (9) ◽

pp. 376

Author(s):

Seo Lin Nam ◽

A. Paulina de la Mata ◽

Ryan P. Dias ◽

James J Harynuk

Keyword(s):

Principal Component ◽

Data Interpretation ◽

Urine Concentration ◽

Solute Content ◽

Total Peak Area ◽

Non Invasive ◽

Normalization Methods ◽

Useful Signal ◽

Urine Concentrations ◽

Frequent Sampling

Urine is a popular biofluid for metabolomics studies due to its simple, non-invasive collection and its availability in large quantities, permitting frequent sampling, replicate analyses, and sample banking. The biggest disadvantage with using urine is that it exhibits significant variability in concentration and composition within an individual over relatively short periods of time (arising from various external factors and internal processes regulating the body’s water and solute content). In treating the data from urinary metabolomics studies, one must account for the natural variability of urine concentrations to avoid erroneous data interpretation. Amongst various proposed approaches to account for broadly varying urine sample concentrations, normalization to creatinine has been widely accepted and is most commonly used. MS total useful signal (MSTUS) is another normalization method that has been recently reported for mass spectrometry (MS)-based metabolomics studies. Herein, we explored total useful peak area (TUPA), a modification of MSTUS that is applicable to GC×GC-TOFMS (and data from other separations platforms), for sample normalization in urinary metabolomics studies. Performance of TUPA was compared to the two most common normalization approaches, creatinine adjustment and Total Peak Area (TPA) normalization. Each normalized dataset was evaluated using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The results showed that TUPA outperformed alternative normalization methods to overcome urine concentration variability. Results also conclusively demonstrate the risks in normalizing data to creatinine.

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Aspen Global Change Institute: 25 Years of Interdisciplinary Global Change Science

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society ◽

10.1175/bams-d-15-00204.1 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 97 (11) ◽

pp. 2027-2037

Author(s):

Gerald A. Meehl ◽

Richard Moss

Keyword(s):

Social Sciences ◽

Global Change ◽

Environmental Changes ◽

System Response ◽

Personal Perspective ◽

Natural Systems ◽

Global Environmental ◽

History Of ◽

Global Environmental Changes ◽

Applied Fields

Abstract Global Global environmental changes, such as climate change, result from the interaction of human and natural systems. Understanding these changes and options for addressing them requires research in the physical, environmental, and social sciences, as well as engineering and other applied fields. In this essay, the authors provide their personal perspective on the role of the Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) in global change science over the past 25 years—in particular, how it has contributed to the integration of the natural and social sciences needed to research the drivers of change, the Earth system response, natural and human system impacts, and options for risk management. Drawing on inputs from other AGCI participants, we illustrate how, in our view, the history of AGCI is intertwined with the evolution of global change science as it has become an increasingly interdisciplinary endeavor.

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Impacts of Global River Delta Modification on Ecosystem Services

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-9009 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Martin O. Reader ◽

Maria J. Santos ◽

Alexander Damm ◽

Owen Petchey ◽

Hugo de Boer

Keyword(s):

Species Richness ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Net Primary Productivity ◽

Global Analysis ◽

Natural State ◽

Natural Systems ◽

Human Footprint ◽

Trade Offs ◽

Human Modification

Human modification of natural systems has typically enhanced provisioning ecosystem services (ES), such as agriculture, at the expense of biodiversity and other types of services. Long-term sustainability requires a balance of ES flows to both maintain human wellbeing, while preserving biodiversity. In river deltas this balance is critical &#8211; fertile flat land, well stocked fisheries, and water for use and navigation have promoted rapid population growth and development. Yet the same development degrades the key ES protecting these deltas from hazards and pollution. Many deltas face a critical juncture, at risk or already &#8216;locked-in&#8217; to the need for engineered solutions to global change problems, unsustainable globally and in the long-term.We created a global dataset of 237 deltas and collected indicators of the extent each was modified from its natural state, and its ES supply. Several types of modification to the most important aspects of delta systems were considered &#8211; overall human impact (human footprint), pressure and demand on ES (population density), modification of water systems (flow disruption) and modification of natural productivity (human appropriation of net primary productivity); grouping deltas by modification state. The impacts of this human modification on over 50 robust biodiversity and ES indicators were then analysed.Firstly, we attempted to create bundles of commonly associated ES in delta areas. Hierarchical clustering highlighted several logical clusters related to crops, fisheries, water, species richness, biodiversity intactness and NPP. Secondly, we examined synergies and trade-offs between different ES. Provisioning services all showed clear correlations with one another, but clear trade-offs with supporting services or biodiversity. There were weaker synergies within and between regulating and supporting ES. Finally, the relationship between each type of modification and the ES was classified using six typologies fitted by applying a decision tree to their LOESS regression curves. Crop indicators typically had an inverted-U relationship, increasing in moderately modified deltas, but decreasing in the most modified, presumably pushed out by other land uses. While many other ES declined with modification, interestingly, species richness and intactness both began to increase again in the most modified deltas. In summary, this global analysis is the first to illustrate how ES vary along a gradient of development in deltas, and highlights the need to balance further modification against these critical services.

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Chemical ecology in coupled human and natural systems: people, manioc, multitrophic interactions and global change

Chemoecology ◽

10.1007/s00049-010-0047-1 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 20 (2) ◽

pp. 109-133 ◽

Cited By ~ 44

Author(s):

Doyle McKey ◽

Timothy R. Cavagnaro ◽

Julie Cliff ◽

Roslyn Gleadow

Keyword(s):

Global Change ◽

Chemical Ecology ◽

Multitrophic Interactions ◽

Natural Systems

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Eksplorasi Penalaran Logis Calon Guru Matematika Melalui Pengintegrasian Pendekatan STEM dalam Menyelesaikan Soal

Mosharafa: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika ◽

10.31980/mosharafa.v9i1.574 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 13-22

Author(s):

Edy Setiyo Utomo ◽

Fatchiyah Rahman ◽

Ama Noor Fikrati

Keyword(s):

Mathematics Education ◽

Education Program ◽

Mathematics Teacher ◽

Data Interpretation ◽

Logical Reasoning ◽

Mathematical Achievement ◽

Reasoning Ability ◽

Data Presentation ◽

Mathematical Problems ◽

The Subject

AbstrakRendahnya kemampuan penalaran menjadi penyebab rendahnya prestasi matematika. Diperlukan solusi, diantaranya STEM. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengeksplorasi penalaran logis calon guru matematika melalui pengintegrasian pendekatan STEM dalam menyelesaikan soal matematika. Jenis penelitian yaitu kualitatif dengan pendekatan deskriptif. Subjek penelitian adalah seorang mahasiswa calon guru matematika yang dipilih secara purposive sampling. Instrumen penelitian meliputi utama dan pendukung yaitu TPL dan pedoman wawancara. Teknik analisis data meliputi reduksi data, penyajian data, interpretasi data, dan penarikan simpulan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan subjek melakukan eksplorasi software Geogebra untuk mengidentifikasi informasi yang diperlukan sesuai pengetahuan yang dimiliki. Subjek juga melakukan beberapa teknik mengoperasikan aplikasi Geogebra, seperti dilatasi dan refleksi. Selanjutnya subjek menekankan beberapa titik-titik koordinat selama membuat grafik fungsi yang ditunjukkan software Geogebra untuk membuktikan jawabannya melalui subtistusi setiap titik-titiknya. Subjek meyakini kebenaran hasil yang ditunjukkan pada Geogebra. Pengintegrasian teknologi dalam setiap matakuliah diperlukan agar mahasiswa dapat mengembangkan penalaran logis dalam menyelesaikan masalah matematika. Logical Reasoning Exploration for Mathematics’ Candidate Teacher through Integration of STEM Approach in Solving Problem AbstractThe low reasoning ability is the reason for low mathematical achievement. A solution is needed, including STEM. This research has aimed to explore the logical reasoning of mathematics teacher candidate through integrating the STEM approach in solving a math problem in a task. This research uses descriptive qualitative. The subject of this research is the students of the mathematics education program of STKIP PGRI Jombang. These research instruments involve main and supportive that consist of TPL and interview. In analyzing data, it consists of reduction data, presentation data, interpretation data, and conclusion. The result of this research shows that the subject does exploration through "Geogebra" to identify the information which is appropriate with its knowledge. The subject also does several techniques in operating "Geogebra", such as; dilated and reflection. Moreover, the subject emphasizes several coordinate points while making a graphic of function which is shown in "Geogebra", because it is suitable for things that have already done in a worksheet. Integrating technology in each course is needed so that students can develop logical reasoning in solving mathematical problems.

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