scholarly journals A Comparison of Biannual Two-Phase Low-Dose Liver CT and US for HCC Surveillance in a Group at High Risk of HCC Development

Liver Cancer ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 503-517
Author(s):  
Jeong Hee Yoon ◽  
Jeong Min Lee ◽  
Dong Ho Lee ◽  
Ijin Joo ◽  
Ju Hyun Jeon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Positive Predictive Value ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Low Dose ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Current Recommendation ◽  
Two Phase ◽  
Sensitivity Specificity ◽  
Higher Sensitivity

Background and Aims: Biannual ultrasonography (US) is a current recommendation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance in a high-risk group. The sensitivity of US, however, has been low in patients with a high risk of developing HCC. We aimed to compare sensitivity for HCC of biannual US and two-phase low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) in patients with a high risk of HCC. Methods: In this prospective single-arm study, participants with an annual risk of HCC greater than 5% (based on a risk index of ≥2.33) and who did not have a history of HCC were enrolled from November 2014 to July 2016. Participants underwent paired biannual US and two-phase LDCT 1–3 times. Two-phase LDCT included arterial and 3-min delayed phases. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of HCC detection using US and two-phase LDCT were compared using a composite algorithm as a standard of reference. Results: Of the 139 enrolled participants, 137 underwent both the biannual US and two-phase LDCT at least once and had follow-up images. Among them, 27 cases of HCC (mean size: 14 ± 4 mm) developed in 24 participants over 1.5 years. Two-phase LDCT showed a significantly higher sensitivity (83.3% [20/24] vs. 29.2% [7/24], p < 0.001) and specificity (95.6% [108/113] vs. 87.7% [99/113], p =0.03) than US. A false-positive result was reported in 14 participants at US and 5 participants at two-phase LDCT, resulting in a significantly higher positive predictive value of two-phase LDCT (33.3% [7/21] vs. 80% [20/25], p < 0.001). Conclusions: Patients with a risk index ≥2.33 showed a high annual incidence of HCC development in our study, and two-phase LDCT showed significantly higher sensitivity and specificity for HCC detection than US.

scholarly journals Reliability of digital panoramic radiography in the diagnosis of carotid artery calcifications

2014 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vilson Lacerda Brasileiro Junior ◽  
Aníbal Henrique Barbosa Luna ◽  
Marcelo Augusto Oliveira de Sales ◽  
Tânia Lemos Coelho Rodrigues ◽  
Priscilla Lopes da Fonseca Abrantes Sarmento ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Carotid Artery ◽  
Positive Predictive Value ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Carotid Arteries ◽  
Panoramic Radiography ◽  
Digital Panoramic Radiography ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Mcnemar’S Test ◽  
Sensitivity Specificity

Objective The present study evaluated the reliability of digital panoramic radiography in the diagnosis of carotid artery calcifications. Materials and Methods Thirty-five patients under high-risk for development of carotid artery calcifications who had digital panoramic radiography were referred to undergo ultrasonography. Thus, 70 arteries were assessed by both methods. The main parameters utilized to evaluate the panoramic radiography reliability in the diagnosis of carotid artery calcifications were accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value of this method as compared with ultrasonography. Additionally, the McNemar's test was utilized to verify whether there was a statistically significant difference between digital panoramic radiography and ultrasonography. Results Ultrasonography demonstrated carotid artery calcifications in 17 (48.57%) patients. Such individuals presented with a total of 29 (41.43%) carotid arteries affected by calcification. Radiography was accurate in 71.43% (n = 50) of cases evaluated. The degree of sensitivity of this method was 37.93%, specificity of 95.12% and positive predictive value of 84.61%. A statistically significant difference (p < 0.001) was observed between the methods evaluated in their capacity to diagnose carotid artery calcifications. Conclusion Digital panoramic radiography should not be indicated as a method of choice in the investigation of carotid artery calcifications.

scholarly journals Early Prediction of Multiple Organ Dysfunction in the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjukta N. Bose ◽  
Joseph L. Greenstein ◽  
James C. Fackler ◽  
Sridevi V. Sarma ◽  
Raimond L. Winslow ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Positive Predictive Value ◽  
Organ Dysfunction ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Pediatric Intensive Care ◽  
Multiple Organ ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Early Prediction

Objective: The objective of the study is to build models for early prediction of risk for developing multiple organ dysfunction (MOD) in pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) patients.Design: The design of the study is a retrospective observational cohort study.Setting: The setting of the study is at a single academic PICU at the Johns Hopkins Hospital, Baltimore, MD.Patients: The patients included in the study were &lt;18 years of age admitted to the PICU between July 2014 and October 2015.Measurements and main results: Organ dysfunction labels were generated every minute from preceding 24-h time windows using the International Pediatric Sepsis Consensus Conference (IPSCC) and Proulx et al. MOD criteria. Early MOD prediction models were built using four machine learning methods: random forest, XGBoost, GLMBoost, and Lasso-GLM. An optimal threshold learned from training data was used to detect high-risk alert events (HRAs). The early prediction models from all methods achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve ≥0.91 for both IPSCC and Proulx criteria. The best performance in terms of maximum F1-score was achieved with random forest (sensitivity: 0.72, positive predictive value: 0.70, F1-score: 0.71) and XGBoost (sensitivity: 0.8, positive predictive value: 0.81, F1-score: 0.81) for IPSCC and Proulx criteria, respectively. The median early warning time was 22.7 h for random forest and 37 h for XGBoost models for IPSCC and Proulx criteria, respectively. Applying spectral clustering on risk-score trajectories over 24 h following early warning provided a high-risk group with ≥0.93 positive predictive value.Conclusions: Early predictions from risk-based patient monitoring could provide more than 22 h of lead time for MOD onset, with ≥0.93 positive predictive value for a high-risk group identified pre-MOD.

Rater

2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e20678-e20678
Author(s):  
B. Rangarajan ◽  
K. Prabhash ◽  
R. Nair ◽  
H. Menon ◽  
P. Jain ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Febrile Episode ◽  
Index Score ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Mascc Score ◽  
Sensitivity Specificity ◽  
Risk Index Score

e20678 Background: Management of neutropenic fever is based on risk stratification of the episode which helps in optimizing treatment. MASCC is the most commonly used for risk stratification Patients with a score of > 21 were regarded as low risk; patients with a score of <21 were regarded as high risk. We tried to validate the MASCC index for our ethnic population. Methods: Patients were recruited throughout a 12 month period. Inclusion criteria were diagnosis of hematolymphoid malignancy, neutropenic febrile episode secondary to chemotherapy or during induction therapy of acute leukemia and more than 18 years of age All patients were risk stratified, hospitalized and treated with broad-spectrum, empiric, intravenous antibiotic therapy until recovery or outcome of the event. The incidence of medical complications in both groups and death related to the neutropenic infection was recorded. The data was entered on SPSS software and MASCC criteria was analyzed for sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). Results: A total of 81 febrile neutropenic episodes were included; 34 classified as low risk and 47 as high risk according to MASCC risk index score. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV and accuracy of MASCC risk index score were 45.5%, 40%, 11%, 82%, 40.7%. We subsequently analyzed the subset of Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) patients as they were the majority comprising of 62/81 episodes. The subset of AML patients risk stratified according to MASCC risk index showed sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV and accuracy of 71%, 25.5%, 11%, 87.5%, 31% respectively. Conclusions: In our patient group, the value of MASCC score is limited with poor sensitivity, specificity and PPV. This trend is also seen in the subset analysis of AML patients. The value of the MASCC index with the score of 21 as the cut-off between low risk and high risk seems limited in our patients and requires confirmation with larger set of patients. No significant financial relationships to disclose.

scholarly journals Comparison between AIR score and Alvarado score in cases of non-perforated and perforated acute appendicitis

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 1108
Author(s):  
Debabrata Gope ◽  
Anuradha Santosh Dnayanmote ◽  
Saurav Mahesh Thakkar ◽  
Akriti Rajkumar Tulsian ◽  
Shweta Achuthan Kutty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Abdominal Pain ◽  
Acute Appendicitis ◽  
Positive Predictive Value ◽  
Sensitivity And Specificity ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Acute Abdominal Pain ◽  
Pathological Examination ◽  
Alvarado Score ◽  
Sensitivity Specificity ◽  
Higher Sensitivity

Background: Acute abdominal pain is a common complaint in the emergency department. Diagnostics of one of the most common pathologies behind acute abdominal pain, acute appendicitis, has radically changed over the last decades. There are several different diagnostic scores for suspected acute appendicitis. The Alvarado score being most widely known. Appendicitis Inflammatory Response (AIR) score was designed to overcome drawbacks of previous scores. This score incorporated the C-reactive protein value in its design and was developed and validated on a prospective cohort of patients with suspicion of acute appendicitis.Methods: Patients with pain in RIF were admitted. Scores were assessed, patients whose score was significant by either of the system were subjected for appendicectomy. The specimens of appendix were sent for histo-pathological examination (HPE). Post-operative histopathology report was correlated with the scores. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive for AIR and Alvarado score were calculated.Results: For scores >4, AIR score has higher sensitivity and specificity. The negative predictive value (NPV) of AIR score was higher and the positive predictive value (PPV) of AIR score was also high. For scores >8, Alvarado score has higher sensitivity as compared to AIR score whereas AIR score has higher specificity as compared to Alvarado score. NPV of Alvarado score was higher while PPV of AIR score was higher.Conclusions: In this study AIR score had Alvarado score displaying higher sensitivity and specificity.

scholarly journals Efficiency of non-invasive prenatal screening in pregnant women at advanced maternal age

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Zhu ◽  
Xiaoxiao Jin ◽  
Yuqing Xu ◽  
Weihua Zhang ◽  
Xiaodan Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Pregnant Women ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Trisomy 21 ◽  
Maternal Age ◽  
Prenatal Screening ◽  
Advanced Maternal Age ◽  
Youden Index ◽  
Non Invasive ◽  
Sensitivity Specificity

Abstract Background Non-invasive prenatal screening (NIPS) is widely used as the alternative choice for pregnant women at high-risk of fetal aneuploidy. However, whether NIPS has a good detective efficiency for pregnant women at advanced maternal age (AMA) has not been fully studied especially in Chinese women. Methods Twenty-nine thousand three hundred forty-three pregnant women at AMA with singleton pregnancy who received NIPS and followed-up were recruited. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the Youden Index for detecting fetal chromosomal aneuploidies were analyzed. The relationship between maternal age and common fetal chromosomal aneuploidy was observed. Results The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV of NIPS for detecting fetal trisomy 21 were 99.11, 99.96, 90.98, and 100%, respectively. These same parameters for detecting fetal trisomy 18 were 100, 99.94, 67.92, and 100%, respectively. Finally, these parameters for detecting trisomy 13 were 100, 99.96, 27.78, and 100%, respectively. The prevalence of fetal trisomy 21 increased exponentially with maternal age. The high-risk percentage incidence rate of fetal trisomy 21 was significantly higher in the pregnant women at 37 years old or above than that in pregnant women at 35 to 37 years old. (Youden index = 37). Conclusion It is indicated that NIPS is an effective prenatal screening method for pregnant women at AMA.

scholarly journals Foundational Statistical Principles in Medical Research: Sensitivity, Specificity, Positive Predictive Value, and Negative Predictive Value

Medicina ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (5) ◽  
pp. 503
Author(s):  
Thomas F. Monaghan ◽  
Syed N. Rahman ◽  
Christina W. Agudelo ◽  
Alan J. Wein ◽  
Jason M. Lazar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Positive Predictive Value ◽  
Negative Predictive Value ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Medical Literature ◽  
Disease Prevalence ◽  
Positive Test Result ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
Sensitivity Specificity ◽  
Test Result ◽  
Test Probability

Sensitivity, which denotes the proportion of subjects correctly given a positive assignment out of all subjects who are actually positive for the outcome, indicates how well a test can classify subjects who truly have the outcome of interest. Specificity, which denotes the proportion of subjects correctly given a negative assignment out of all subjects who are actually negative for the outcome, indicates how well a test can classify subjects who truly do not have the outcome of interest. Positive predictive value reflects the proportion of subjects with a positive test result who truly have the outcome of interest. Negative predictive value reflects the proportion of subjects with a negative test result who truly do not have the outcome of interest. Sensitivity and specificity are inversely related, wherein one increases as the other decreases, but are generally considered stable for a given test, whereas positive and negative predictive values do inherently vary with pre-test probability (e.g., changes in population disease prevalence). This article will further detail the concepts of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values using a recent real-world example from the medical literature.

Identifying children at high risk for infection-related decompensation using a predictive emergency department-based electronic assessment tool

Diagnosis ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Sepanski ◽  
Arno L. Zaritsky ◽  
Sandip A. Godambe
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Positive Predictive Value ◽  
Firing Rate ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Predictive Tool ◽  
High Severity ◽  
Electronic Assessment ◽  
Ed Visits

AbstractObjectivesElectronic alert systems to identify potential sepsis in children presenting to the emergency department (ED) often either alert too frequently or fail to detect earlier stages of decompensation where timely treatment might prevent serious outcomes.MethodsWe created a predictive tool that continuously monitors our hospital’s electronic health record during ED visits. The tool incorporates new standards for normal/abnormal vital signs based on data from ∼1.2 million children at 169 hospitals. Eighty-two gold standard (GS) sepsis cases arising within 48 h were identified through retrospective chart review of cases sampled from 35,586 ED visits during 2012 and 2014–2015. An additional 1,027 cases with high severity of illness (SOI) based on 3 M’s All Patient Refined – Diagnosis-Related Groups (APR-DRG) were identified from these and 26,026 additional visits during 2017. An iterative process assigned weights to main factors and interactions significantly associated with GS cases, creating an overall “score” that maximized the sensitivity for GS cases and positive predictive value for high SOI outcomes.ResultsTool implementation began August 2017; subsequent improvements resulted in 77% sensitivity for identifying GS sepsis within 48 h, 22.5% positive predictive value for major/extreme SOI outcomes, and 2% overall firing rate of ED patients. The incidence of high-severity outcomes increased rapidly with tool score. Admitted alert positive patients were hospitalized nearly twice as long as alert negative patients.ConclusionsOur ED-based electronic tool combines high sensitivity in predicting GS sepsis, high predictive value for physiologic decompensation, and a low firing rate. The tool can help optimize critical treatments for these high-risk children.

scholarly journals 3124 Early Electrographic Seizure Detection by Neuro ICU Nurses via Bedside Real-Time Quantitative EEG

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (s1) ◽  
pp. 38-38
Author(s):  
Safa Kaleem ◽  
Christa B. Swisher
Keyword(s):  
Positive Predictive Value ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Quantitative Eeg ◽  
University Hospital ◽  
Duke University ◽  
Study Population ◽  
Time To Detection ◽  
Sensitivity Specificity ◽  
Improve Patient

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: 1. Determine positive predictive value, negative predictive value, sensitivity, and specificity of Neuro ICU nurse interpretation of real-time bedside qEEG. 2. Determine difference in time to detection of first seizure between Neuro ICU nurse qEEG interpretation and EEG fellow reads of cEEG. 3. Determine what qualities of seizures make detection by neuro ICU nurses more or less likely – e.g. duration of seizures, type of seizures, spatial extent of seizures. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Recruit neuro ICU nurses taking care of 150 patients admitted to the Neuro ICU at Duke University Hospital who are initiated on cEEG monitoring. Nurses will be consented for their participation in the study. Neuro ICU nurses will evaluate the qEE RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: From literature estimates of a 20% seizure prevalence in critical care settings, we hope to have 30 patients with seizures and 120 without. Based on prior study in the Duke Neuro ICU, we hypothesize that Neuro ICU nurses will have sensitivity and DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: This is the first prospective study of neuro ICU nurse interpretation of real-time bedside qEEG in patients with unknown NCSE/NCS presence. If nurse sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value are clinically useful, which we deem would be so at a sensitivity of 70% or greater, with acceptable false alarm rate, nurse readings of qEEG could significantly decrease the time to treatment of seizures in the Neuro ICU patient population, and perhaps could improve patient outcomes.

Drawing the line in the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS): a vital decision

2011 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dagmar Lagerberg ◽  
Margaretha Magnusson ◽  
Claes Sundelin
Keyword(s):  
Positive Predictive Value ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Postnatal Depression ◽  
Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale ◽  
Depression Scale ◽  
Child Interaction ◽  
Mother Child Interaction ◽  
Problem Behaviours ◽  
Low Sensitivity ◽  
Sensitivity Specificity

Abstract Background: The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) is widely used in early child health care. This study examined the appropriateness of the recommended EPDS cut-off score 11/12. Methods: Two main analyses were performed: 1. Associations between EPDS scores and maternal health behaviour, stress, life events, perceived mother-child interaction quality and child behaviour. 2. Screening parameters of the EPDS, i.e., sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value. EPDS scores were available for 438 mothers and maternal questionnaires for 361 mothers. Results: Already in the EPDS score intervals 6–8 and 9–11, there were notable adversities, according to maternal questionnaires, in stress, perceived quality of mother-child interaction, perceived child difficultness and child problem behaviours. Using maternal questionnaire reports about sadness/distress postpartum as standard, the recommended EPDS cut-off score 11/12 resulted in a very low sensitivity (24%). The cut-off score 6/7 yielded a sensitivity of 61%, a specificity of 82% and a positive predictive value of 61%. Conclusions: In terms of both clinical relevance and screening qualities, an EPDS cut-off score lower than 11/12 seems recommendable.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document