scholarly journals Prediction of addiction to drugs and alcohol using machine learning: A case study on Bangladeshi population

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 4471
Author(s):  
Md. Ariful Islam Arif ◽  
Saiful Islam Sany ◽  
Farah Sharmin ◽  
Md. Sadekur Rahman ◽  
Md. Tarek Habib
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Adaptive Boosting ◽  
Drugs And Alcohol

Nowadays addiction to drugs and alcohol has become a significant threat to the youth of the society as Bangladesh’s population. So, being a conscientious member of society, we must go ahead to prevent these young minds from life-threatening addiction. In this paper, we approach a machinelearning-based way to forecast the risk of becoming addicted to drugs using machine-learning algorithms. First, we find some significant factors for addiction by talking to doctors, drug-addicted people, and read relevant articles and write-ups. Then we collect data from both addicted and nonaddicted people. After preprocessing the data set, we apply nine conspicuous machine learning algorithms, namely k-nearest neighbors, logistic regression, SVM, naïve bayes, classification, and regression trees, random forest, multilayer perception, adaptive boosting, and gradient boosting machine on our processed data set and measure the performances of each of these classifiers in terms of some prominent performance metrics. Logistic regression is found outperforming all other classifiers in terms of all metrics used by attaining an accuracy approaching 97.91%. On the contrary, CART shows poor results of an accuracy approaching 59.37% after applying principal component analysis.

scholarly journals Predicting hospitalization following psychiatric crisis care using machine learning

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthijs Blankers ◽  
Louk F. M. van der Post ◽  
Jack J. M. Dekker
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Nearest Neighbors ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
K Nearest Neighbors ◽  
Crisis Care

Abstract Background Accurate prediction models for whether patients on the verge of a psychiatric criseis need hospitalization are lacking and machine learning methods may help improve the accuracy of psychiatric hospitalization prediction models. In this paper we evaluate the accuracy of ten machine learning algorithms, including the generalized linear model (GLM/logistic regression) to predict psychiatric hospitalization in the first 12 months after a psychiatric crisis care contact. We also evaluate an ensemble model to optimize the accuracy and we explore individual predictors of hospitalization. Methods Data from 2084 patients included in the longitudinal Amsterdam Study of Acute Psychiatry with at least one reported psychiatric crisis care contact were included. Target variable for the prediction models was whether the patient was hospitalized in the 12 months following inclusion. The predictive power of 39 variables related to patients’ socio-demographics, clinical characteristics and previous mental health care contacts was evaluated. The accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the machine learning algorithms were compared and we also estimated the relative importance of each predictor variable. The best and least performing algorithms were compared with GLM/logistic regression using net reclassification improvement analysis and the five best performing algorithms were combined in an ensemble model using stacking. Results All models performed above chance level. We found Gradient Boosting to be the best performing algorithm (AUC = 0.774) and K-Nearest Neighbors to be the least performing (AUC = 0.702). The performance of GLM/logistic regression (AUC = 0.76) was slightly above average among the tested algorithms. In a Net Reclassification Improvement analysis Gradient Boosting outperformed GLM/logistic regression by 2.9% and K-Nearest Neighbors by 11.3%. GLM/logistic regression outperformed K-Nearest Neighbors by 8.7%. Nine of the top-10 most important predictor variables were related to previous mental health care use. Conclusions Gradient Boosting led to the highest predictive accuracy and AUC while GLM/logistic regression performed average among the tested algorithms. Although statistically significant, the magnitude of the differences between the machine learning algorithms was in most cases modest. The results show that a predictive accuracy similar to the best performing model can be achieved when combining multiple algorithms in an ensemble model.

scholarly journals Predicting Hospitalization following Psychiatric Crisis Care using Machine Learning

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthijs Blankers ◽  
Louk F. M. van der Post ◽  
Jack J. M. Dekker
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Nearest Neighbors ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Predictor Variables ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
K Nearest Neighbors ◽  
Psychiatric Crisis ◽  
Crisis Care

Abstract Background: It is difficult to accurately predict whether a patient on the verge of a potential psychiatric crisis will need to be hospitalized. Machine learning may be helpful to improve the accuracy of psychiatric hospitalization prediction models. In this paper we evaluate and compare the accuracy of ten machine learning algorithms including the commonly used generalized linear model (GLM/logistic regression) to predict psychiatric hospitalization in the first 12 months after a psychiatric crisis care contact, and explore the most important predictor variables of hospitalization. Methods: Data from 2,084 patients with at least one reported psychiatric crisis care contact included in the longitudinal Amsterdam Study of Acute Psychiatry were used. The accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the machine learning algorithms were compared. We also estimated the relative importance of each predictor variable. The best and least performing algorithms were compared with GLM/logistic regression using net reclassification improvement analysis. Target variable for the prediction models was whether or not the patient was hospitalized in the 12 months following inclusion in the study. The 39 predictor variables were related to patients’ socio-demographics, clinical characteristics and previous mental health care contacts. Results: We found Gradient Boosting to perform the best (AUC=0.774) and K-Nearest Neighbors performing the least (AUC=0.702). The performance of GLM/logistic regression (AUC=0.76) was above average among the tested algorithms. Gradient Boosting outperformed GLM/logistic regression and K-Nearest Neighbors, and GLM outperformed K-Nearest Neighbors in a Net Reclassification Improvement analysis, although the differences between Gradient Boosting and GLM/logistic regression were small. Nine of the top-10 most important predictor variables were related to previous mental health care use. Conclusions: Gradient Boosting led to the highest predictive accuracy and AUC while GLM/logistic regression performed average among the tested algorithms. Although statistically significant, the magnitude of the differences between the machine learning algorithms was modest. Future studies may consider to combine multiple algorithms in an ensemble model for optimal performance and to mitigate the risk of choosing suboptimal performing algorithms.

scholarly journals Evaluating Variable Selection and Machine Learning Algorithms for Estimating Forest Heights by Combining Lidar and Hyperspectral Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 507
Author(s):  
Sanjiwana Arjasakusuma ◽  
Sandiaga Swahyu Kusuma ◽  
Stuart Phinn
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Feature Selection ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Hyperspectral Data ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Forest Height ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Machine learning has been employed for various mapping and modeling tasks using input variables from different sources of remote sensing data. For feature selection involving high- spatial and spectral dimensionality data, various methods have been developed and incorporated into the machine learning framework to ensure an efficient and optimal computational process. This research aims to assess the accuracy of various feature selection and machine learning methods for estimating forest height using AISA (airborne imaging spectrometer for applications) hyperspectral bands (479 bands) and airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) height metrics (36 metrics), alone and combined. Feature selection and dimensionality reduction using Boruta (BO), principal component analysis (PCA), simulated annealing (SA), and genetic algorithm (GA) in combination with machine learning algorithms such as multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), extra trees (ET), support vector regression (SVR) with radial basis function, and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) with trees (XGbtree and XGBdart) and linear (XGBlin) classifiers were evaluated. The results demonstrated that the combinations of BO-XGBdart and BO-SVR delivered the best model performance for estimating tropical forest height by combining lidar and hyperspectral data, with R2 = 0.53 and RMSE = 1.7 m (18.4% of nRMSE and 0.046 m of bias) for BO-XGBdart and R2 = 0.51 and RMSE = 1.8 m (15.8% of nRMSE and −0.244 m of bias) for BO-SVR. Our study also demonstrated the effectiveness of BO for variables selection; it could reduce 95% of the data to select the 29 most important variables from the initial 516 variables from lidar metrics and hyperspectral data.

scholarly journals Predicting Forest Fires using Supervised and Ensemble Machine Learning Algorithms

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 3697-3705 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Physical Factors

Forest fires have become one of the most frequently occurring disasters in recent years. The effects of forest fires have a lasting impact on the environment as it lead to deforestation and global warming, which is also one of its major cause of occurrence. Forest fires are dealt by collecting the satellite images of forest and if there is any emergency caused by the fires then the authorities are notified to mitigate its effects. By the time the authorities get to know about it, the fires would have already caused a lot of damage. Data mining and machine learning techniques can provide an efficient prevention approach where data associated with forests can be used for predicting the eventuality of forest fires. This paper uses the dataset present in the UCI machine learning repository which consists of physical factors and climatic conditions of the Montesinho park situated in Portugal. Various algorithms like Logistic regression, Support Vector Machine, Random forest, K-Nearest neighbors in addition to Bagging and Boosting predictors are used, both with and without Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Among the models in which PCA was applied, Logistic Regression gave the highest F-1 score of 68.26 and among the models where PCA was absent, Gradient boosting gave the highest score of 68.36.

scholarly journals Classification of hazelnut cultivars: comparison of DL4J and ensemble learning algorithms

2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 2316-2327
Author(s):  
Caner KOC ◽  
Dilara GERDAN ◽  
Maksut B. EMİNOĞLU ◽  
Uğur YEGÜL ◽  
Bulent KOC ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Ensemble Learning ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Performance Criteria ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Data Set

Classification of hazelnuts is one of the values adding processes that increase the marketability and profitability of its production. While traditional classification methods are used commonly, machine learning and deep learning can be implemented to enhance the hazelnut classification processes. This paper presents the results of a comparative study of machine learning frameworks to classify hazelnut (Corylus avellana L.) cultivars (‘Sivri’, ‘Kara’, ‘Tombul’) using DL4J and ensemble learning algorithms. For each cultivar, 50 samples were used for evaluations. Maximum length, width, compression strength, and weight of hazelnuts were measured using a caliper and a force transducer. Gradient boosting machine (Boosting), random forest (Bagging), and DL4J feedforward (Deep Learning) algorithms were applied in traditional machine learning algorithms. The data set was partitioned into a 10-fold-cross validation method. The classifier performance criteria of accuracy (%), error percentage (%), F-Measure, Cohen’s Kappa, recall, precision, true positive (TP), false positive (FP), true negative (TN), false negative (FN) values are provided in the results section. The results showed classification accuracies of 94% for Gradient Boosting, 100% for Random Forest, and 94% for DL4J Feedforward algorithms.

scholarly journals Application of Data Mining Algorithms for Dementia in People with HIV/AIDS

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Luana Ibiapina Cordeiro Calíope Pinheiro ◽  
Maria Lúcia Duarte Pereira ◽  
Marcial Porto Fernandez ◽  
Francisco Mardônio Vieira Filho ◽  
Wilson Jorge Correia Pinto de Abreu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Data Mining ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Decision Tree ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Hiv Aids

Dementia interferes with the individual’s motor, behavioural, and intellectual functions, causing him to be unable to perform instrumental activities of daily living. This study is aimed at identifying the best performing algorithm and the most relevant characteristics to categorise individuals with HIV/AIDS at high risk of dementia from the application of data mining. Principal component analysis (PCA) algorithm was used and tested comparatively between the following machine learning algorithms: logistic regression, decision tree, neural network, KNN, and random forest. The database used for this study was built from the data collection of 270 individuals infected with HIV/AIDS and followed up at the outpatient clinic of a reference hospital for infectious and parasitic diseases in the State of Ceará, Brazil, from January to April 2019. Also, the performance of the algorithms was analysed for the 104 characteristics available in the database; then, with the reduction of dimensionality, there was an improvement in the quality of the machine learning algorithms and identified that during the tests, even losing about 30% of the variation. Besides, when considering only 23 characteristics, the precision of the algorithms was 86% in random forest, 56% logistic regression, 68% decision tree, 60% KNN, and 59% neural network. The random forest algorithm proved to be more effective than the others, obtaining 84% precision and 86% accuracy.

scholarly journals Predictability of Mortality in Patients With Myocardial Injury After Noncardiac Surgery Based on Perioperative Factors via Machine Learning: Retrospective Study

10.2196/32771 ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. e32771
Author(s):  
Seo Jeong Shin ◽  
Jungchan Park ◽  
Seung-Hwa Lee ◽  
Kwangmo Yang ◽  
Rae Woong Park
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Clinical Data ◽  
Myocardial Injury ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Noncardiac Surgery ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
The Impact

Background Myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery (MINS) is associated with increased postoperative mortality, but the relevant perioperative factors that contribute to the mortality of patients with MINS have not been fully evaluated. Objective To establish a comprehensive body of knowledge relating to patients with MINS, we researched the best performing predictive model based on machine learning algorithms. Methods Using clinical data from 7629 patients with MINS from the clinical data warehouse, we evaluated 8 machine learning algorithms for accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, and area under the precision-recall curve to investigate the best model for predicting mortality. Feature importance and Shapley Additive Explanations values were analyzed to explain the role of each clinical factor in patients with MINS. Results Extreme gradient boosting outperformed the other models. The model showed an AUROC of 0.923 (95% CI 0.916-0.930). The AUROC of the model did not decrease in the test data set (0.894, 95% CI 0.86-0.922; P=.06). Antiplatelet drugs prescription, elevated C-reactive protein level, and beta blocker prescription were associated with reduced 30-day mortality. Conclusions Predicting the mortality of patients with MINS was shown to be feasible using machine learning. By analyzing the impact of predictors, markers that should be cautiously monitored by clinicians may be identified.

scholarly journals Application of Convolutional Neural Network Algorithms for Advancing Sedentary and Activity Bout Classification

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Supun Nakandala ◽  
Marta M. Jankowska ◽  
Fatima Tuz-Zahra ◽  
John Bellettiere ◽  
Jordan A. Carlson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Feature Engineering ◽  
Free Living ◽  
Data Set

Background: Machine learning has been used for classification of physical behavior bouts from hip-worn accelerometers; however, this research has been limited due to the challenges of directly observing and coding human behavior “in the wild.” Deep learning algorithms, such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), may offer better representation of data than other machine learning algorithms without the need for engineered features and may be better suited to dealing with free-living data. The purpose of this study was to develop a modeling pipeline for evaluation of a CNN model on a free-living data set and compare CNN inputs and results with the commonly used machine learning random forest and logistic regression algorithms. Method: Twenty-eight free-living women wore an ActiGraph GT3X+ accelerometer on their right hip for 7 days. A concurrently worn thigh-mounted activPAL device captured ground truth activity labels. The authors evaluated logistic regression, random forest, and CNN models for classifying sitting, standing, and stepping bouts. The authors also assessed the benefit of performing feature engineering for this task. Results: The CNN classifier performed best (average balanced accuracy for bout classification of sitting, standing, and stepping was 84%) compared with the other methods (56% for logistic regression and 76% for random forest), even without performing any feature engineering. Conclusion: Using the recent advancements in deep neural networks, the authors showed that a CNN model can outperform other methods even without feature engineering. This has important implications for both the model’s ability to deal with the complexity of free-living data and its potential transferability to new populations.

scholarly journals Using machine learning algorithms to detect frauds in telephone networks

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 16-20
Author(s):  
Sergiu Apostu
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Telephone Networks ◽  
Forest Models ◽  
Random Forest Models ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Standardization Technique

This paper presents an analysis of voice traffic in telephone networks, based on machine learning algorithms to detect frauds made by callers. Starting from the raw data set that includes information about the call date, destination number, duration and caller's number, in our approach we were able to identify fraudulent calls in early stages. For balance, the data set was split in 2 parts: one for training and one for testing. To obtain mean’s values from dataset, a standardization technique was applied in order to scale the data before the dimensionality reduction using Principal Component Analysis. Then, the first two components were used as inputs for Logistic Regression and Random Forest models, having the caller as target. Finally, the target was moved on the destination file so as to identify the caller and the moment when the call has started based on a vector representation of words.

Forecasting US movies box office performances in Turkey using machine learning algorithms

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (5) ◽  
pp. 6579-6590
Author(s):  
Sandy Çağlıyor ◽  
Başar Öztayşi ◽  
Selime Sezgin
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Box Office ◽  
Industry Forecast ◽  
The Impact

The motion picture industry is one of the largest industries worldwide and has significant importance in the global economy. Considering the high stakes and high risks in the industry, forecast models and decision support systems are gaining importance. Several attempts have been made to estimate the theatrical performance of a movie before or at the early stages of its release. Nevertheless, these models are mostly used for predicting domestic performances and the industry still struggles to predict box office performances in overseas markets. In this study, the aim is to design a forecast model using different machine learning algorithms to estimate the theatrical success of US movies in Turkey. From various sources, a dataset of 1559 movies is constructed. Firstly, independent variables are grouped as pre-release, distributor type, and international distribution based on their characteristic. The number of attendances is discretized into three classes. Four popular machine learning algorithms, artificial neural networks, decision tree regression and gradient boosting tree and random forest are employed, and the impact of each group is observed by compared by the performance models. Then the number of target classes is increased into five and eight and results are compared with the previously developed models in the literature.

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