scholarly journals An Accurate Medium-Term Load Forecasting based on Hybrid Technique

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 161
Author(s):  
Z.M. Yasin ◽  
N.F.A. Aziz ◽  
N.A. Salim ◽  
N.A. Wahab ◽  
N.A. Rahmat
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Hybrid Technique ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Load Demand ◽  
Ant Lion Optimizer ◽  
Ant Lion

An accurate medium term load forecasting is significant for power generation scheduling, economic and reliable operation in power system. Most of classical approach for medium term load forecasting only consider total daily load demand. This approach may not provide accurate results since the load demand is fluctuated in a day. In this paper, a hybrid Ant-Lion Optimizer Least-square Support Vector Machine (ALO-LSSVM) is proposed to forecast 24-hour load demand for the next year. Ant-Lion Optimizer (ALO) is utilized to optimize the RBF Kernel parameters in Least-Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM). The objective of the optimization is to minimize the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The performance of ALO-LSSVM technique was compared with those obtained from LS-SVM technique through a 10-fold cross-validation procedure. The historical hourly load data are analyzed and appropriate features are selected for the model. There are 24 inputs and 24 outputs vectors for this model which represents 24-hour load demand for whole year. The results revealed that the high accuracy of prediction could be achieved using ALO-LSSVM.

scholarly journals Long-term load forecasting using grey wolf optimizer -least-squares support vector machine

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 417
Author(s):  
Z. M. Yasin ◽  
N. A. Salim ◽  
N.F.A. Aziz ◽  
Y.M. Ali ◽  
H. Mohamad
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Peak Load ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Grey Wolf Optimizer ◽  
Grey Wolf ◽  
Load Demand

<p><span lang="EN-US">Long term load forecasting data is important for grid expansion and power system operation. Besides, it also important to ensure the generation capacity meet electricity demand at all times. In this paper, Least-Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) is used to predict the long-term load demand. Four inputs are considered which are peak load demand, ambient temperature, humidity and wind speed. Total load demand is set as the output of prediction in LSSVM. In order to improve the accuracy of the LSSVM, Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO) is hybridized to obtain the optimal parameters of LSSVM namely GWO-LSSVM. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is used as the quantify measurement of the prediction model. The objective of the optimization is to minimize the value of MAPE. The performance of GWO-LSSVM is compared with other methods such as LSSVM and Ant Lion Optimizer – Least-Square Support Vector Machine (ALO-LSSVM). From the results obtained, it can be concluded that GWO-LSSVM provide lower MAPE value which is 0.13% as compared to other methods.</span></p>

scholarly journals Electrical Load Forecasting using SVM Algorithm

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 4811-4816
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Live Load ◽  
Electric Load ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Electrical Load ◽  
Load Demand ◽  
Svm Algorithm

Electrical load demand is variable in nature. Also, with the increase in technological development and automation, electric load demand tends to rise with time. For this, our generation facilities should be adequate 24x7 to meet the consumer’s load demand effectively. Therefore, load demand needs to be predicted or forecasted to avoid the energy crisis. In this paper, support vector machine (SVM) algorithm is explored for electric load forecasting. The live load data for the period of three months i.e., January to March, 2015, from a typical 66kV sub-station of the Punjab State Power Corporation Limited (PSPCL) for a selected site at Bhai Roopa sub-station, Bathinda, situated in the Punjab state of India, is acquired for the presented simulation study. The collected live data is divided into three categories, i.e., validation, training, and testing for the simulation study considering a SVM approach. Then, based on the environmental data input for the next 50 hours, the electric load is predicted. The obtained results from simulation were validated with the live load data of the selected site and found to be within the permissible limits. The mean square error (MSE), root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), absolute percentage error (APE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and sum of squares error (SSE) were calculated to show the effectiveness of the proposed support vector machine (SVM) algorithm based STLF. SVM is one of the effective machine learning algorithms. The errors so obtained clearly suggest that the proposed SVM algorithm gives reasonably accurate results, and is reliable for electric load forecasting.

scholarly journals Medium-Term Regional Electricity Load Forecasting through Machine Learning and Deep Learning

Designs ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Navid Shirzadi ◽  
Ameer Nizami ◽  
Mohammadali Khazen ◽  
Mazdak Nik-Bakht
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Smart Grids ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Load Demand ◽  
Electricity Load ◽  
Electricity Load Forecasting

Due to severe climate change impact on electricity consumption, as well as new trends in smart grids (such as the use of renewable resources and the advent of prosumers and energy commons), medium-term and long-term electricity load forecasting has become a crucial need. Such forecasts are necessary to support the plans and decisions related to the capacity evaluation of centralized and decentralized power generation systems, demand response strategies, and controlling the operation. To address this problem, the main objective of this study is to develop and compare precise district level models for predicting the electrical load demand based on machine learning techniques including support vector machine (SVM) and Random Forest (RF), and deep learning methods such as non-linear auto-regressive exogenous (NARX) neural network and recurrent neural networks (Long Short-Term Memory—LSTM). A dataset including nine years of historical load demand for Bruce County, Ontario, Canada, fused with the climatic information (temperature and wind speed) are used to train the models after completing the preprocessing and cleaning stages. The results show that by employing deep learning, the model could predict the load demand more accurately than SVM and RF, with an R-Squared of about 0.93–0.96 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of about 4–10%. The model can be used not only by the municipalities as well as utility companies and power distributors in the management and expansion of electricity grids; but also by the households to make decisions on the adoption of home- and district-scale renewable energy technologies.

scholarly journals Application of SVM methods for mid-term load forecasting

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milos Bozic ◽  
Milos Stojanovic
Keyword(s):  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Training Set ◽  
Load Demand ◽  
Svm Model ◽  
Vector Machines ◽  
Distribution Company ◽  
Daily Load

This paper presents an approach for the medium-term load forecasting using Support Vector Machines (SVMs). The proposed SVM model was employed to predict the maximum daily load demand for the period of a month. Analyses of available data were performed and the most important features for the construction of SVM model are selected. It was shown that the size and the structure of the training set may significantly affect the accuracy of predictions. The presented model was tested by applying it on real-life load data obtained from distribution company 'ED Jugoistok' for the territory of city Nis and its surroundings. Experimental results show that the proposed approach gives acceptable results for the entire period of prediction, which are in range with other solutions in this area.

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