Abstract 14240: Thoracic Aortic Calcium for the Prediction of Stroke Mortality: The Coronary Artery Calcium Consortium

Introduction: Thoracic aortic calcium(TAC) is an important marker of extra-coronary atherosclerosis with known predictive value for all-cause mortality. We sought to explore the predictive value of TAC for stroke mortality, independent of the more established coronary artery calcium score. Methods: The Coronary Artery Calcium(CAC) Consortium is a retrospectively assembled database of 66,636 patients aged ≥18 years with no prior history of cardiovascular disease, who had CAC scans done for risk stratification and were followed-up for an average of 12±4years. CAC scans capture a view of the adjacent thoracic aorta, enabling us to assess TAC at no extra cost. TAC was analyzed as present or not present and we restricted analysis to those with this information available. To account for competing risks for death from other causes, we utilized multivariable-adjusted competing risk regression models adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors (age, sex, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, cigarette smoking, diabetes, family history of CHD) and CAC score. We report the relationship between TAC and stroke mortality using sub-distribution hazard ratios(SHR) with 95% CI. Results: There were 41,066 patients with information on TAC, 110 of whom had stroke mortality. The mean age of participants was 53.8±10.3 years, with 34.4% female. The unadjusted SHR for stroke mortality among those who had TAC compared to those who did not was 8.80(95%CI:5.97,12.98). After adjusting for traditional risk factors and CAC score, the SHR was 2.21(95%CI:1.39,3.49). The fully adjusted SHR for females was 3.42(95%CI:1.74,6.73) while for males it was 1.55(95%CI:0.83,2.90). Conclusion: TAC was predictive of stroke mortality independent of traditional risk factors and CAC, more so in females. The presence of TAC appears to be an independent marker of stroke mortality risk though further research is needed to study its incremental value over existing cardiovascular risk prediction models.

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Prognostic value of coronary artery calcium score in hospitalized COVID-19 patients

European Heart Journal ◽

10.1093/eurheartj/ehab724.0183 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 42 (Supplement_1) ◽

Author(s):

A Motoc ◽

M L Luchian ◽

S Lochy ◽

D Belsack ◽

J Magne ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Cardiovascular Risk ◽

Coronary Artery ◽

Coronary Artery Calcium ◽

Predictive Value ◽

Cardiovascular Events ◽

Hospital Treatment ◽

Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events ◽

Imaging Data ◽

Coronary Syndrome

Abstract Background The association between known cardiovascular risk factors and poor prognosis of patients diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been recently emphasized (1). Coronary artery calcium (CAC) score assessed by computed tomography (CT) is considered a risk modifier in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease and has shown to improve cardiovascular risk prediction in addition to classical risk factors (2). Purpose We hypothesized that the absence of CAC might have an additional predictive value for an improved cardiovascular outcome of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Methods We prospectively included 310 consecutive hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Thirty patients with a history of coronary artery disease were excluded.Low dose non-contrast chest CT was performed in all patients at admission. Visual assessment of CAC in every coronary artery was obtained by using an ordinal scoring of 0, 1, 2 or 3 corresponding to absent, mild, moderate or severe CAC score. A total score was calculated by summing the score of each vessel, which was further categorized as 0 (undetectable), 1–3 (mild), 4–5 (moderate) and ≥6 (severe). (Figure 1). Demographics, medical history, clinical characteristics, laboratory findings, imaging data, in–hospital treatment and outcomes were retrospectively analyzed. A composite endpoint of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) was defined as all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events (heart failure, myocarditis, arrhythmia, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, pulmonary embolism). Results Two-hundred eighty patients (63.2±16.7 years old, 57.5% male) were included in the analysis. One hundred thirty one (46.7%) patients had a CAC score of zero. MACE-rate was 24.2% (68 patients). Multivariate logistic regression showed that the absence of CAC was inversely associated with MACE (OR 0.264, 95% 0.071–0.981, p=0.047), with a negative predictive value (NPV) of 81.4%, sensitivity 70%, specificity 55%, independent of age, risk factors or disease severity (Table 1). Conclusion The absence of CAC translated into a low risk for MACE in COVID-19 patients, even in the presence of cardiac risk factors, which reinforces the idea that the assessment of CAC score in COVID-19 patients could be a useful marker for patients risk stratification and management. Future directions should focus on the implementation of CAC score into mid-term and long-term follow-up of this particular population, to provide a more precise and earlier estimation of cardiovascular risk FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None. Figure 1 Table 1

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A comprehensive, contemporary assessment of the association between hepatosteatosis and coronary artery calcium scoring

European Heart Journal - Cardiovascular Imaging ◽

10.1093/ehjci/jeaa356.234 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 22 (Supplement_1) ◽

Author(s):

T Heseltine ◽

SW Murray ◽

RL Jones ◽

M Fisher ◽

B Ruzsics

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Logistic Regression ◽

Coronary Artery ◽

Regression Model ◽

Coronary Artery Calcium ◽

Logistic Regression Model ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽

Cvd Risk ◽

Male Sex

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. onbehalf Liverpool Multiparametric Imaging Collaboration Background Coronary artery calcium (CAC) score is a well-established technique for stratifying an individual’s cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Several well-established registries have incorporated CAC scoring into CVD risk prediction models to enhance accuracy. Hepatosteatosis (HS) has been shown to be an independent predictor of CVD events and can be measured on non-contrast computed tomography (CT). We sought to undertake a contemporary, comprehensive assessment of the influence of HS on CAC score alongside traditional CVD risk factors. In patients with HS it may be beneficial to offer routine CAC screening to evaluate CVD risk to enhance opportunities for earlier primary prevention strategies. Methods We performed a retrospective, observational analysis at a high-volume cardiac CT centre analysing consecutive CT coronary angiography (CTCA) studies. All patients referred for investigation of chest pain over a 28-month period (June 2014 to November 2016) were included. Patients with established CVD were excluded. The cardiac findings were reported by a cardiologist and retrospectively analysed by two independent radiologists for the presence of HS. Those with CAC of zero and those with CAC greater than zero were compared for demographic and cardiac risks. A multivariate analysis comparing the risk factors was performed to adjust for the presence of established risk factors. A binomial logistic regression model was developed to assess the association between the presence of HS and increasing strata of CAC. Results In total there were 1499 patients referred for CTCA without prior evidence of CVD. The assessment of HS was completed in 1195 (79.7%) and CAC score was performed in 1103 (92.3%). There were 466 with CVD and 637 without CVD. The prevalence of HS was significantly higher in those with CVD versus those without CVD on CTCA (51.3% versus 39.9%, p = 0.007). Male sex (50.7% versus 36.1% p= <0.001), age (59.4 ± 13.7 versus 48.1 ± 13.6, p= <0.001) and diabetes (12.4% versus 6.9%, p = 0.04) were also significantly higher in the CAC group compared to the CAC score of zero. HS was associated with increasing strata of CAC score compared with CAC of zero (CAC score 1-100 OR1.47, p = 0.01, CAC score 101-400 OR:1.68, p = 0.02, CAC score >400 OR 1.42, p = 0.14). This association became non-significant in the highest strata of CAC score. Conclusion We found a significant association between the increasing age, male sex, diabetes and HS with the presence of CAC. HS was also associated with a more severe phenotype of CVD based on the multinomial logistic regression model. Although the association reduced for the highest strata of CAC (CAC score >400) this likely reflects the overall low numbers of patients within this group and is likely a type II error. Based on these findings it may be appropriate to offer routine CVD risk stratification techniques in all those diagnosed with HS.

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Cardiac biomarkers for cardiovascular risk prediction among women and men from the general population

European Journal of Preventive Cardiology ◽

10.1093/eurjpc/zwab061.240 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 28 (Supplement_1) ◽

Author(s):

F Zhu ◽

B Arshi ◽

E Aribas ◽

MA Ikram ◽

MK Ikram ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Coronary Heart Disease ◽

Heart Disease ◽

Cardiovascular Risk ◽

Predictive Value ◽

Troponin T ◽

Cardiac Biomarkers ◽

C Statistic ◽

Cardiovascular Risk Prediction ◽

Traditional Risk Factors

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): the Erasmus Medical Center and Erasmus University Rotterdam; the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw); Purpose To evaluate the sex-specific predictive value of two cardiac biomarkers; N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), alongside traditional cardiovascular risk factors, for 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction in general population. Methods A total of 5430 participants (mean age 68.1 years; 59.9% women) free of cardiovascular disease (CVD), with blood sample measurements between 1997 and 2001 were included. We developed a ‘base’ model using cardiovascular risk factors used in the Pooled Cohort Equation (includes age, sex, systolic blood pressure, treatment of hypertension, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, smoking, and diabetes) and then extended the ‘base’ model with NT-proBNP or hs-cTnT. These models were developed for coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and heart failure (HF) and also for composite CVD outcomes. To evaluate biomarkers’ added predictive value, c-statistic, and net reclassification improvement index (NRI) for events and non-events were calculated. NRI was calculated using cutoffs of 5%, 7.5% and 20% to categorize participants as low, borderline, intermediate, or high risk. Results Adding NT-proBNP to the ‘base’ model significantly improved c-statistic for all outcomes (increases ranged between 0.012-0.047), with the largest improvement in HF [0.026 (95% CI, 0.013, 0.040) for women and 0.047 (95% CI, 0.026, 0.069) for men]. Adding hs-TnT to ‘base’ model increased the c-statistic for CHD in women by 0.040 (95% CI, 0.013, 0.067) and for HF in men by 0.032 (95% CI, 0.005, 0.059). Improvments in reclassification by both biomarkers were mostly limited to modest improvemetns in reclassification of non-events [largest non-event NRI for global CVD in women (NT-proBNP: 11.8%; hs-cTnT: 10.5%) and for HF in men (NT-proBNP: 9.6%; hs-cTnT: 8.4%)]. Conclusion NT-proBNP improved model performance for prediction of all cardiovascular outcomes, in particular for HF, beyond traditional risk factors for both women and men. Hs-cTnT showed modest added predictive value beyond traditional risk factors for CHD among women and for HF among men. Imropovements in reclassification by both biomarkers were modest and not clinically relevant. Improvements of 10-year risk predictions Events Adding NT-proBNP Adding troponin T Delta c-statistic* Event NRI, % Non-event NRI, % Delta c-statistic* Event NRI, % Non-event NRI, % WomenASCVD Global CVD 0.012 (0.004, 0.020) 0.018 (0.010, 0.026) -1.7 (-5.0, 1.5)-0.8 (-3.8, 2.2) 5.4 (3.5, 7.2)11.8 (9.6, 14.1) 0.028 (0.009, 0.048)0.025 (0.009, 0.040) -0.4 (-7.1, 6.2)2.9 (-2.4, 8.3) 6.9 (3.9, 9.9)10.5 (7.3, 13.8) MenASCVD Global CVD 0.016 (0.005, 0.027)0.023 (0.012, 0.033) 0.7 (-2.3, 3.7)-0.3 (-3.0, 2.4) 5.2 (3.2, 7.2)7.2 (4.9, 9.4) 0.007 (-0.002, 0.016)0.011 (0.000, 0.021) -1.1 (-5.0, 2.7)-1.6 (-6.0, 2.8) 4.0 (1.2, 6.9)6.4 (3.1, 9.7) ASCVD comprises coronary heart disease and stroke; Global CVD comprises coronary heart disease, stroke and heart failure.

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