scholarly journals Optimizing Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Estimation for Veterans With Diabetes Mellitus

Author(s):  
Sridharan Raghavan ◽  
Yuk-Lam Ho ◽  
Jason L. Vassy ◽  
Daniel Posner ◽  
Jacqueline Honerlaw ◽  
...  

Background: Estimated 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk in diabetes mellitus patients is used to guide primary prevention, but the performance of risk estimators (2013 Pooled Cohort Equations [PCE] and Risk Equations for Complications of Diabetes [RECODe]) varies across populations. Data from electronic health records could be used to improve risk estimation for a health system’s patients. We aimed to evaluate risk equations for initial ASCVD events in US veterans with diabetes mellitus and improve model performance in this population. Methods AND RESULTS: We studied 183 096 adults with diabetes mellitus and without prior ASCVD who received care in the Veterans Affairs Healthcare System (VA) from 2002 to 2016 with mean follow-up of 4.6 years. We evaluated model discrimination, using Harrell’s C statistic, and calibration, using the reclassification χ 2 test, of the PCE and RECODe equations to predict fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction or stroke and cardiovascular mortality. We then tested whether model performance was affected by deriving VA-specific β-coefficients. Discrimination of ASCVD events by the PCE was improved by deriving VA-specific β-coefficients (C statistic increased from 0.560 to 0.597) and improved further by including measures of glycemia, renal function, and diabetes mellitus treatment (C statistic, 0.632). Discrimination by the RECODe equations was improved by substituting VA-specific coefficients (C statistic increased from 0.604 to 0.621). Absolute risk estimation by PCE and RECODe equations also improved with VA-specific coefficients; the calibration P increased from <0.001 to 0.08 for PCE and from <0.001 to 0.005 for RECODe, where higher P indicates better calibration. Approximately two-thirds of veterans would meet a guideline indication for high-intensity statin therapy based on the PCE versus only 10% to 15% using VA-fitted models. Conclusions: Existing ASCVD risk equations overestimate risk in veterans with diabetes mellitus, potentially impacting guideline-indicated statin therapy. Prediction model performance can be improved for a health system’s patients using readily available electronic health record data.

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. e000071
Author(s):  
Smita Bakhai ◽  
Aishwarya Bhardwaj ◽  
Parteet Sandhu ◽  
Jessica L. Reynolds

The 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines focus on atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk reduction, using a Pooled Cohort Equation to calculate a patient’s 10-year risk score, which is used to guide initiation of statin therapy. We identified a gap of evidence-based treatment for hyperlipidaemia in the Internal Medicine Clinic. Therefore, the aim of this study was to increase calculation of ASCVD risk scores in patients between the ages of 40 and 75 years from a baseline rate of less than 1% to 10%, within 12 months, for primary prevention of ASCVD. Root cause analysis was performed to identify materials/methods, provider and patient-related barriers. Plan-Do-Study-Act cycles included: (1) creation of customised workflow in electronic health records for documentation of calculated ASCVD risk score; (2) physician education regarding guidelines and electronic health record workflow; (3) refresher training for residents and a chart alert and (4) patient education and physician reminders. The outcome measures were ASCVD risk score completion rate and percentage of new prescriptions for statin therapy. Process measures included lipid profile order and completion rates. Increase in patient wait time, and blood test and medications costs were the balanced measures. We used weekly statistical process control charts for data analysis. The average ASCVD risk completion rate was 14.2%. The mean ASCVD risk completion rate was 4.0%. In eligible patients, the average lipid profile completion rate was 18%. ASCVD risk score completion rate was 33% 1-year postproject period. A team-based approach led to a sustainable increase in ASCVD risk score completion rate. Lack of automation in ASCVD risk score calculation and physician prompts in electronic health records were identified as major barriers. Furthermore, the team identified multiple barriers to lipid blood tests and treatment of increased ASCVD risk based on ACC/AHA guidelines.


2019 ◽  
Vol 73 (3) ◽  
pp. 272-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aet Saar ◽  
Kristi Läll ◽  
Maris Alver ◽  
Toomas Marandi ◽  
Tiia Ainla ◽  
...  

BackgroundWe aim to investigate the predictive ability of PCE (Pooled Cohort Equations), QRISK2 and SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Estimation) scoring systems for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk prediction in Estonia, a country with one of the highest ASCVD event rates in Europe.MethodsSeven-year risk estimates were calculated in risk score–specific subsets of the Estonian Biobank cohort. Calibration was assessed by standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) and discrimination by Harrell’s C-statistics. In addition, a head-to-head comparison of the scores was performed in the intersection of the three score-specific subcohorts.ResultsPCE, QRISK2 and SCORE risk estimates were calculated for 4356, 7191 and 3987 eligible individuals, respectively. During the 7-year follow-up, 220 hard ASCVD events (PCE outcome), 671 ASCVD events (QRISK2 outcome) and 94 ASCVD deaths (SCORE outcome) occurred among the score-specific subsets of the cohort. While PCE (SIR 1.03, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.18) and SCORE (SIR 0.99, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.21) were calibrated well for the cohort, QRISK2 underestimated the risk by 48% (SIR 0.52, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.56). In terms of discrimination, PCE (C-statistic 0.778) was inferior to QRISK2 (C-statistic 0.812) and SCORE (C-statistic 0.865). All three risk scores performed at similar level in the head-to-head comparison.ConclusionOf three widely used ASCVD risk scores, PCE and SCORE performed at acceptable level, while QRISK2 underestimated ASCVD risk markedly. These results highlight the need for evaluating the accuracy of ASCVD risk scores prior to use in high-risk populations.


2021 ◽  
pp. 089719002199979
Author(s):  
Roshni P. Emmons ◽  
Nicholas V. Hastain ◽  
Todd A. Miano ◽  
Jason J. Schafer

Background: Recent studies suggest that statins are underprescribed in patients living with HIV (PLWH) at risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), but none have assessed if eligible patients receive the correct statin and intensity compared to uninfected controls. Objectives: The primary objective was to determine whether statin-eligible PLWH are less likely to receive appropriate statin therapy compared to patients without HIV. Methods: This retrospective study evaluated statin eligibility and prescribing among patients in both an HIV and internal medicine clinic at an urban, academic medical center from June-September 2018 using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline on treating blood cholesterol to reduce ASCVD risk. Patients were assessed for eligibility and actual treatment with appropriate statin therapy. Characteristics of patients appropriately and not appropriately treated were compared with chi-square testing and predictors for receiving appropriate statin therapy were determined with logistic regression. Results: A total of 221/300 study subjects were statin-eligible. Fewer statin-eligible PLWH were receiving the correct statin intensity for their risk benefit group versus the uninfected control group (30.2% vs 67.0%, p < 0.001). In the multivariable logistic regression analysis, PLWH were significantly less likely to receive appropriate statin therapy, while those with polypharmacy were more likely to receive appropriate statin therapy. Conclusion: Our study reveals that PLWH may be at a disadvantage in receiving appropriate statin therapy for ASCVD risk reduction. This is important given the heightened risk for ASCVD in this population, and strategies that address this gap in care should be explored.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
J.E Van Der Toorn ◽  
D Bos ◽  
B Arshi ◽  
M.K Ikram ◽  
M.W Vernooij ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The Coronary Artery Calcium (CAC) Score has emerged as a valuable tool in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk stratification. However, data on the relevance of arterial calcification in different vascular territories for ASCVD risk prediction is lacking. Purpose First, to assess the sex-specific distribution of arterial calcification in different vessel beds across ASCVD risk categories. Second, to determine the added value of arterial calcification in different vascular territories for ASCVD risk prediction. Methods From a large population-based study, 2,139 participants (mean age 69 years, 55% women) underwent non-contrast computed tomography to quantify CAC, aortic arch calcification (AAC), extracranial- (ECAC) and intracranial carotid artery calcification (ICAC), and vertebrobasilar artery calcification (VBAC). The outcome measure, incident ASCVD, composed of fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), other coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, and stroke. We fitted sex-specific prediction models according to the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE), and categorized participants into low- (&lt;5%), borderline- (5% to 7.5%), intermediate- (7.5% to 20%), and high ASCVD risk (≥20%), based on the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and American Heart Association (AHA) guideline. Subsequently, we determined the distribution of calcifications in different vascular territories across the risk categories. Next, we extended the PCE prediction model with calcification volumes and calculated the c-statistic and the net reclassification improvement for events (NRIe) and non-events (NRIne). Results The median follow-up for ASCVD was 9.3 years. Among women, 38% was classified as low-risk, 19% as borderline risk, 31% as intermediate risk, and 12% as high risk. Among men, 2% was classified as low-risk, 10% as borderline risk, 60% as intermediate risk, and 28% as high risk. With increasing risk of ASCVD, a larger burden of calcification was observed. In women, simultaneously adding calcification volumes in all vessel beds led to the largest increase in c statistic (from 0.71 to 0.75) for the prediction of ASCVD and the most beneficial reclassification (NRIe: 11%, NRIne: 2%). Among men, the addition of CAC alone most substantially improved the prediction of ASCVD (c statistic improved from 0.65 to 0.68, NRIe and NRIne were 4% and 14%, respectively). Conclusions Our findings suggest a potential role for comprehensive assessment of calcification in different vessel beds for ASCVD risk stratification in particular among women. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): The Rotterdam Study is supported by Erasmus MC and Erasmus University Rotterdam; the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research; the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw); the Research Institute for Diseases in the Elderly; the Netherlands Genomics Initiative; the Ministry of Education, Culture, and Science; the Ministry of Health, Welfare, and Sports; European Commission; and the Municipality of Rotterdam. Dr. Kavousi is supported by the VENI grant (91616079) from ZonMw. Dr. Bos was supported by a fellowship of the BrightFocus Foundation (A2017424F). Oscar L. Rueda-Ochoa receives a scholarship from COLCIENCIAS-Colombia and support from Universidad Industrial de Santander,UIS-Colombia. None of the funders had any role in study design; study conduct; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; and preparation, review, or approval of the article.


2020 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aliza Hussain ◽  
Christie M. Ballantyne

Although numerous trials have convincingly shown benefits of statin therapy in both primary and secondary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), most showed relative risk reductions of 25–40%, and thus many individuals continue to have ASCVD events despite statin therapy. Substantial progress has been made in developing therapies that address the residual risk for ASCVD despite statin therapy. In this review, we summarize progress of currently available therapies along with therapies under development that further reduce low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and apolipoprotein B–containing lipoproteins, reduce lipoprotein(a), reduce ASCVD events in patients with high triglycerides, and directly target inflammation to reduce ASCVD risk. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Medicine, Volume 72 is January 27, 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.


2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory D Huhn ◽  
David J Shamblaw ◽  
Jean-Guy Baril ◽  
Priscilla Y Hsue ◽  
Brittany L Mills ◽  
...  

Abstract Background In human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment, tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) is associated with greater increases in all fasting cholesterol subgroups compared with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF). Because lipid abnormalities may contribute to cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, cardiovascular risk assessment is integral to routine HIV care. This post hoc study evaluates the impact of lipid changes on predicted atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk and statin eligibility in treatment-naive adults living with HIV treated with TAF or TDF. Methods Participants (N = 1744) were randomized (1:1) to initiate TAF or TDF, each coformulated with elvitegravir/cobicistat/emtricitabine (studies GS-US-292-0104 and GS-US-292-0111). Eligibility for statin therapy and estimated 10-year ASCVD risk among adults aged 40–79 years treated with TAF or TDF for 96 weeks (W96) were analyzed based on American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations. Categorical shifts in 10-year ASCVD risk from &lt;7.5% to ≥7.5% by W96 on TAF versus TDF were calculated. Results Participants initiating TAF versus TDF in the overall study population showed small but significant increases in median fasting lipid parameters at W96, including total cholesterol (191 vs 177 mg/dL; P &lt; .001), low-density lipoprotein ([LDL] 119 vs 112 mg/dL; P &lt; .001), and high-density lipoprotein ([HDL] 51 vs 48 mg/dL; P &lt; .001), respectively. At baseline, 18% and 23% on TAF versus TDF had a 10-year ASCVD risk score ≥7.5%, with mean risk scores low overall for TAF versus TDF at baseline (4.9% vs 5.4%; P = .35) and W96 (6.1% vs 6.2%; P = .04). Increases in ASCVD risk from baseline to W96 were driven by both increasing age and changes in total cholesterol (TC) and HDL cholesterol. At W96, TC/HDL ratios (median) were 3.7 for both groups (P = .69). There was no difference between shifts in categorical risk for TAF versus TDF (9% vs 5%; P = .19). Eligibility for high-intensity statin therapy were similar for TAF versus TDF groups (19% vs 21%; P = .47). Conclusions Lipid changes with TAF as part of coformulated regimens do not substantively affect CVD risk profiles compared with TDF.


2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. S179-S180
Author(s):  
Jason J Schafer ◽  
Roshni Patel ◽  
Nicholas V Hastain ◽  
Todd Miano

Abstract Background Patients living with HIV (PLWH) at risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) should receive risk reduction interventions recommended in current guidelines. This includes routine ASCVD risk assessments and when eligible, statins selected and dosed to achieve appropriate low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) reduction. Recent studies suggest that statins are underprescribed in PLWH, but none have assessed if eligible patients receive the correct statin intensity compared with uninfected controls. Methods This retrospective study evaluated statin eligibility and prescribing among consecutive patients in an HIV clinic and an internal medicine clinic at an urban, academic medical center from June-September 2018. To determine statin eligibility, the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline on treating blood cholesterol to reduce ASCVD risk was used. Patients aged 40–75 that had a lipid panel obtained within the last year were included. All patients were assessed to determine eligibility for and actual treatment with appropriate statin therapy. Characteristics of patients correctly and incorrectly treated with statins were compared with chi-square testing and predictors for receiving correct statin therapy were determined with logistic multivariable regression. Results A total of 221/300 study subjects were statin eligible (Table 1). While many eligible PLWH were receiving a statin (54/106), considerably fewer were on the correct statin intensity for their benefit group (33/106). In the univariate analysis (Table 2), correctly treated patients were less likely to be PLWH or female, and were more likely to have polypharmacy and hypertension. In the multivariable logistic regression analysis (Table 3), PLWH (OR 0.26, CI95 0.12–0.57)) were significantly less likely to receive correct statin therapy, while those with concomitant polypharmacy were significantly more likely to receive correct statin therapy (OR 5.52, CI95 1.94, 15.69). Conclusion This study reveals that PLWH may be at a substantial disadvantage in terms of receiving correct statin therapy for ASCVD risk reduction. This finding may be particularly important given the heightened risk for ASCVD in this patient population. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.


2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (18) ◽  
Author(s):  
Quoc Dinh Nguyen ◽  
Michelle C. Odden ◽  
Carmen A. Peralta ◽  
Dae Hyun Kim

Background Assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk is crucial for prevention and management, but the performance of the pooled cohort equations in older adults with frailty and multimorbidity is unknown. We evaluated the pooled cohort equations in these subgroups and the impact of competing risks. Methods and Results In 4249 community‐dwelling adults, aged ≥65 years, from the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study), we calculated 10‐year risk of hard ASCVD. Frailty was determined using the Fried phenotype. Latent class analysis was used to identify individuals with multimorbidity patterns using chronic conditions. We assessed discrimination using the C‐statistic and calibration by comparing predicted ASCVD risks with estimated risk using cause‐specific and cumulative incidence models, by multimorbidity patterns and frailty status. A total of 917 (21.6%) participants had an ASCVD event, and 706 (16.6%) had a competing event of death. C‐statistic was 0.68 in men and 0.69 in women; calibration was good when compared with cause‐specific and cumulative incidence estimated risks (males, −0.1% and 3.3%; females, 0.6% and 1.4%). Latent class analysis identified 4 patterns: minimal disease, cardiometabolic, low cognition, musculoskeletal‐lung depression. In the cardiometabolic pattern, ASCVD risk was overpredicted compared with cumulative incidence risk in men (7.4%) and women (6.8%). Risk was underpredicted in men (−10.7%) and women (−8.2%) with frailty compared with cause‐specific risk. Miscalibration occurred mostly at high predicted risk ranges. Conclusions ASCVD prediction was good in this cohort of adults aged ≥65 years. Although calibration varied by multimorbidity patterns, frailty, and competing risks, miscalibration was mostly present at high predicted risk ranges and thus less likely to alter decision making for primary prevention therapy.


2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S503-S504
Author(s):  
Sarah M Michienzi ◽  
Thomas D Chiampas ◽  
Amy Valkovec ◽  
Siria Arzuaga ◽  
Mahesh C Patel ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The 2018 American Heart Association and American College of Cardiology (AHA/ACC) 2018 Guideline on the Management of Blood Cholesterol included human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) as an atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk enhancer for the first time. Our study investigates if patients living with HIV in the Illinois Department of Corrections (IDOC) were prescribed appropriate HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor (statin) therapy following release of these guidelines based on risk. Methods This was a retrospective study of patients with &gt; 1 visit in our multidisciplinary HIV IDOC Telemedicine Clinic from 1/1/19-6/1/19. Our prescriptive authority is limited to HIV and directly related conditions, and we provide recommendations to on-site providers for other comorbidities. Included patients were &gt; 18 years of age, HIV positive, and incarcerated within IDOC. Excluded patients had existing ASCVD. Data from the first visit in the study period were extracted from the electronic medical record and analyzed utilizing descriptive statistics. Primary objectives were to quantify ASCVD risk and appropriate statin use in our population. Results Of the 158 patients included, average age was 42 years. The majority were male (89%), Black (73%), overweight/obese (117/148, 79%), on an integrase single-tablet regimen (78%), with CD4 &gt;200 cells/µL (97%), and HIV RNA &lt; 20 copies/mL (85%). Of the 18 females, 8 were transgender. Within the prior year, 65% had a lipid panel. For the 50 patients meeting criteria for 10-year ASCVD estimation, median (range) risk was 6.6% (0.8% - 31.9%). Only 12 patients were on statins. Of these, all were indicated per AHA/ACC guidelines with 10 prescribed appropriate intensity. An additional 45 patients had indications for statins but were untreated. In total, 47 patients (30%) were not receiving appropriate statin therapy. Conclusion Results of our study suggest ASCVD risk management is an area of improvement for inmates living with HIV, especially as we look towards caring for an aging HIV population. Future directions include comparing these data to data from a later time point to evaluate time for guideline uptake. Disclosures Thomas D. Chiampas, PharmD, BCPS, AAHIVP, Gilead (Employee)


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document