scholarly journals Trade and Uncertainty

2020 ◽  
Vol 102 (4) ◽  
pp. 749-765 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis Novy ◽  
Alan M. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Production Data ◽  
Fixed Costs ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Domestic Activity ◽  
Uncertainty Shocks ◽  
Great Trade Collapse ◽  
Magnification Effect

We offer a new explanation as to why international trade is so volatile in response to economic shocks. Our approach combines the idea of uncertainty shocks with international trade. Firms order inputs from home and foreign suppliers. In response to an uncertainty shock firms disproportionately cut orders of foreign inputs due to higher fixed costs. In the aggregate, this leads to a bigger contraction in international trade flows than in domestic activity, a magnification effect. We confront the model with newly compiled US import and industrial production data. Our results help to explain the Great Trade Collapse of 2008–2009.

Footprint of Export-Related GHG Emissions from Latin America and the Caribbean

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kun Li
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Technological Progress ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Total Export ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Trade Partners ◽  
Composition Of Trade

To quantify the growth in GHG emissions related to international trade, we build an extensive database for export-related production and transportation GHG emissions covering 189 countries and 10 sectors from 1990 to 2014. We employ this database to quantify the contribution of production and international transportation to total export-related GHG emissions from Latin America and the Caribbean and decompose growth in these to contributions of the increase in the regions trade flows, shifts in the composition of trade partners, changes in the traded product basket, and technological progress.

Assessing the impact of Covid-19 pandemic in Turkey with a novel economic uncertainty index

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Erhan Mugaloglu ◽  
Ali Yavuz Polat ◽  
Hasan Tekin ◽  
Edanur Kılıç
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Production ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Intermediate Goods ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Uncertainty Shocks ◽  
Political Events ◽  
Uncertainty Index ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study aims to measure economic uncertainty in Turkey by a novel economic uncertainty index (EUI) employing principal component analysis (PCA). We assess the impact of Covid-19 pandemic in Turkey with our constructed uncertainty index.Design/methodology/approachIn order to obtain the EUI, this study employs a dimension reduction method of PCA using 14 macroeconomic indicators that spans from January 2011 to July 2020. The first principal component is picked as a proxy for the economic uncertainty in Turkey which explains 52% of total variation in entire sample. In the second part of our analysis, with our constructed EUI we conduct a structural vector autoregressions (SVAR) analysis simulating the Covid-19-induced uncertainty shock to the real economy.FindingsOur EUI sensitively detects important economic/political events in Turkey as well as Covid-19-induced uncertainty rising to extremely high levels during the outbreak. Our SVAR results imply a significant decline in economic activity and in the sub-indices as well. Namely, industrial production drops immediately by 8.2% and cumulative loss over 8 months will be 15% on average. The losses in the capital and intermediate goods are estimated to be 18 and 25% respectively. Forecast error variance decomposition results imply that uncertainty shocks preserve its explanatory power in the long run, and intermediate goods production is more vulnerable to uncertainty shocks than overall industrial production and capital goods production.Practical implicationsThe results indicate that monetary and fiscal policy should aim to decrease uncertainty during Covid-19. Moreover, since investment expenditures are affected severely during the outbreak, policymakers should impose investment subsidies.Originality/valueThis is the first study constructing a novel EUI which sensitively captures the critical economic/political events in Turkey. Moreover, we assess the impact of Covid-19-driven uncertainty on Turkish Economy with a SVAR model.

scholarly journals Openness of the economy as a determinant of economic growth: The panel analysis of the Western Balkans region countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Filip Bugarčić ◽  
Petar Veselinović
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Applied Research ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Panel Regression ◽  
Panel Analysis ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
Economic Growth And Development ◽  
Positive Effect

The openness of the economy and its intensive involvement in international trade and economic flows has an important role in stimulating economic growth and development of a national economy. The aim of the research is to determine the degree of impact and effects of exports, imports and foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth. The applied research methodology is a panel regression analysis on the example of six countries in the Western Balkans region in the period from 2000 to 2018. Three hypotheses were tested in this paper. H1: Exports have a positive effect on economic growth; H2: Imports contribute to GDP growth; H3: FDI has a positive impact on economic growth. The results show that all three variables have a positive, statistically significant impact on GDP. The greatest effect on economic growth in the analyzed sample has exports, which implies the conclusion of the inevitability of more intensive participation of these economies in international trade flows.

scholarly journals Modeling International Trade Flows between CEEC and OECD Countries

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christophe Rault ◽  
Robert Sova ◽  
Anamaria Sova
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Trade Flows

scholarly journals Logística e comércio internacional da fruticultura no estado de Minas Gerais - Brasil

2019 ◽  
pp. 28-53
Author(s):  
Igor Martins Oliveira ◽  
Luiz Andrei Gonçalves Pereira
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
World Economy ◽  
International Markets ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
The Road ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
The World ◽  
Import And Export ◽  
Transport Logistics

Na era globalização, a economia mundial tem vivenciado um processo de reestruturação produtiva, intensificando os fluxos nos territórios inerentes às interações espaciais de recursos, de bens e de serviços que circulam entre os mercados nacionais e internacionais. O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar as dinâmicas socioespaciais dos fluxos de comércio internacional do estado de Minas Gerais por meio da logística das redes de importações e de exportações de frutas, no período de 2000 a 2017. Como resultado, identificou-se que, no mercado externo de frutas, Minas Gerais se relaciona comercialmente com 88 países, sendo 52 nas redes de exportação e 36 na rede de importação. Na operacionalização dos fluxos no comércio global, a logística de transportes foi realizada através dos modais rodoviário, marítimo e aéreo, configurando-se como um elemento geográfico, visto que as transações comerciais demandam o gerenciamento da fluidez, do planejamento e da organização dos diferentes territórios.PALAVRAS-CHAVE: Logística, Comércio Internacional, Fruticultura. ABSTRACTIn the era of globalization, the world economy has undergone a process of productive restructuring, intensifying flows in the territories inherent to the spatial interactions of resources, goods and services that circulate between national and international markets. The objective of this work is to analyze the sociospatial dynamics of the international trade flows of the state of Minas Gerais through the logistics of import and export fruit networks, from 2000 to 2017. As a result, it was identified that in the market Minas Gerais has a commercial relationship with 88 countries, 52 in export networks and 36 in the import network. In the operationalization of flows in global trade, transport logistics was carried out through the road, sea and air modalities, being configured as a geographic element, since commercial transactions demand the management of the fluidity, planning and organization of the different territories.KEYWORDS: Logistic, International Trade, Fruticulture.

scholarly journals Przemiany na rynku cebuli w latach 1995–2012

2014 ◽  
pp. 143-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paweł Kraciński
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Production Data ◽  
The World ◽  
Sown Area

The article presents changes on the onion market in the years 1995–2012. It shows production data which contain the level of harvest, yields, and sown area in the world and in Poland. The article analyses the main tendencies in international trade, taking into account the biggest exporters and importers and value and directions of onion foreign trade in Poland.

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