scholarly journals Survival Pessimism and the Demand for Annuities

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-53
Author(s):  
Cormac O’Dea ◽  
David Sturrock
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Purchasing Decisions ◽  
Subjective Expectations ◽  
Survival Probabilities ◽  
Annuity Puzzle ◽  
Longevity Insurance ◽  
Objectively Measured

Abstract The “annuity puzzle” refers to the fact that annuities are rarely purchased despite the longevity insurance they provide. Most explanations for this puzzle assume that individuals have accurate expectations about their future survival. We provide evidence that individuals misperceive their mortality risk, and study the demand for annuities in a setting where annuities are priced by insurers on the basis of objectively-measured survival probabilities but in which individuals make purchasing decisions based on their own subjective survival probabilities. Subjective expectations have the capacity to explain significant rates of non-annuitization, yielding a quantitatively important explanation for the annuity puzzle.

Physical Activity With Alanine Aminotransferase and Gamma-Glutamyltransferase: Implications of Liver Pathology on the Relationship Between Physical Activity and Mortality

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 988-992 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul D. Loprinzi
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Alanine Aminotransferase ◽  
Vigorous Physical Activity ◽  
Premature Mortality ◽  
Liver Pathology ◽  
Hepatic Inflammation ◽  
Gamma Glutamyltransferase ◽  
Muscle Strengthening ◽  
Objectively Measured

Objective:Examine the association between objectively-measured moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and engagement in self-reported muscle strengthening activities (MSA) with alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), and in turn, how each of these parameters associate with of all-cause mortality.Methods:Data from the 2003–2006 NHANES were employed, with follow-up through December 31, 2011 (N = 5030; 20+ yrs). Physical activity was assessed via accelerometry; MSA was assessed via survey; and ALT and GGT were assessed via a blood sample. Linear regression and Cox proportional hazard models were used.Results:MVPA (βadjusted = 0.15; 95% CI: –0.45 to 0.76; P = .60) was not associated with ALT, but MSA was (β adjusted = –0.31; 95% CI: –0.56 to –0.05; P = .02). With regard to GGT, MSA was not significant (β adjusted = –0.12; 95% CI: –0.71 to 0.47; P = .67), nor was MVPA (β adjusted = –1.10; 95% CI: –2.20 to 0.06; P = .06). Higher ALT levels were associated with increased allcause mortality risk (HRadjusted = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.06; P < .001).Conclusion:Physical activity is favorably associated with markers of hepatic inflammation, and higher levels of markers of hepatic inflammation are associated with increased mortality risk. These findings suggest that physical activity may help protect against premature mortality through its influence on liver pathology.

scholarly journals A Study on Self-Assessed Life Expectancy Among Older Adults in Côte d’Ivoire

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard K Moussa ◽  
Vakaramoko Diaby
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Cote D'ivoire ◽  
Côte D’Ivoire ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Cote D’Ivoire ◽  
Subjective Expectations ◽  
Survival Probabilities ◽  
Côte D'ivoire ◽  
Fourth Component

Abstract Background: The purpose of this study was to estimate individuals’ expected longevity based on self-assessed survival probabilities and determine the predictors of such subjective life expectancy in a sample of elderly people in Côte d’Ivoire.Methods: Paper-based questionnaires were administered to a sample (n=267) of older adults residing in the city of Dabou, Côte d’Ivoire in May 2017. Information on subjective expectations regarding health, comorbidities, and self-assessed survival probabilities were collected. The subjective expectations were related to sociodemographic, health and lifestyle indicators. A spline-based approach was used to estimate the overall distribution of life expectancy for each individual using two to four points of self-assessed survival probabilities. A finite mixture of regression models was used to identify clusters/components of the overall subjective life expectancy distribution of the study participants. Results: The mean subjective life expectancy in older people varied according to four components/clusters. The average subjective life expectancy among the elderly was 79.51, 78.89, 80.02 and 77.79 years in the first, second, third and fourth component of the subjects' overall subjective life expectancy, respectively. The effect of sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, and lifestyle on subjective life expectancy varied across components. For instance, a U-shape relationship between household per capita income and subjective life expectancy was found for individuals classified into the third component, and an inverse U-shape relationship was found for individuals classified into the fourth component.Conclusion: We extended the estimation of subjective life expectancy by accounting for heterogeneity in the distribution of the estimated subjective life expectancy. This approach improved the usual methods for estimating individual subjective life expectancies and may provide insight into the elderly’s perception of aging, which could be used to forecast the demand for health services and long-term care needs.

Physical Activity–Related Obesity Risk Classification Model and All-Cause Mortality

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1255-1262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul D. Loprinzi ◽  
Ovuokerie Addoh
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Body Mass Index ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
Obesity Risk ◽  
Respective Group ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Objectively Measured

Background:This study evaluated a physical activity–related obesity model on mortality.Methods:Data from the 1999–2006 NHANES were used (N = 16,077), with follow-up through 2011. Physical activity (PA) was subjectively assessed, with body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) objectively measured. From these, 12 mutually exclusive groups (G) were evaluated, including: G1: Normal BMI, Normal WC and Active; G2: Normal BMI, Normal WC and Inactive; G3: Normal BMI, High WC and Active; G4: Normal BMI, High WC and Inactive; G5: Overweight BMI, Normal WC and Active; G6: Overweight BMI, Normal WC and Inactive; G7: Overweight BMI, High WC and Active; G8: Overweight BMI, High WC and Inactive; G9: Obese BMI, Normal WC and Active; G10: Obese BMI, Normal WC and Inactive; G11: Obese BMI, High WC and Active; and G12: Obese BMI, High WC and Inactive.Results:Compared with G2, the following had a reduced mortality risk: G1, G3, G5, G6, G7, G8, G9, and G11. Compared with G12, the following had a reduced mortality risk: G1, G3, G5, G7, G9, and G11. In each respective group for BMI and WC, the active group had a reduced mortality risk.Conclusions:Across all BMI and WC combinations, PA improved mortality risk identification.

scholarly journals Dynamic Implications of Subjective Expectations: Evidence from Adult Smokers

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Unobserved Heterogeneity ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Dynamic Discrete Choice ◽  
Subjective Expectations ◽  
Survival Probabilities ◽  
Dynamic Discrete Choice Model ◽  
Set Up

We set up a dynamic discrete choice model with subjective expectations data to explain adult smokers’ smoking decisions. We find important differences between subjective survival probabilities and those estimated using observed mortality data. Subjectively, individuals attach less weight to their health conditions and smoking choices and more weight to such factors as age, race, and parents’ longevity. Moreover, adult smokers are found to care more about their health and to be more forward-looking than predicted by a rational expectations framework. We further show the importance of unobserved heterogeneity in agents’ subjective survival probabilities, and discuss policy implications of subjective expectations. (JEL D12, D84, I12)

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