Analysing and Forecasting Share Price Index in Malaysia
Wilkie investment model is a stochastic investment model that was built by Wilkie in 1984 and was updated in 1995. The model building objective is forecasting. Box-Jenkins method was the basic structure of Wilkie model. It involves various type of forecasting model. Some model handle stationary time series such as autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model while some of them handle non-stationary time series such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. There are four sub-models in the Wilkie model which is retail price index model, share dividend yield model, share dividend index model and Consols yield model. In this paper, the Wilkie share price model [4] was apply to Malaysia data in analysing and forecasting FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI share price index for 36 month ahead from November 2015 to October 2018. Monthly historical data from January 1996 to October 2015 are use as the base. We use ARIMA model to forecast the share price index in Malaysia. ARIMA(0,1,2) model was chosen as the best fit forecasting model. Through forecasting, we are able to evaluate the performance of the share price index in Malaysia.