scholarly journals Climate Modulation of North Atlantic Hurricane Tracks

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (11) ◽  
pp. 3057-3076 ◽  
Author(s):  
James P. Kossin ◽  
Suzana J. Camargo ◽  
Matthew Sitkowski
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Cape Verde ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Cluster Membership ◽  
Atlantic Hurricane ◽  
The North ◽  
Hurricane Tracks ◽  
Tropical Systems

Abstract The variability of North Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane tracks, and its relationship to climate variability, is explored. Tracks from the North Atlantic hurricane database for the period 1950–2007 are objectively separated into four groups using a cluster technique that has been previously applied to tropical cyclones in other ocean basins. The four clusters form zonal and meridional separations of the tracks. The meridional separation largely captures the separation between tropical and more baroclinic systems, while the zonal separation segregates Gulf of Mexico and Cape Verde storms. General climatologies of the seasonality, intensity, landfall probability, and historical destructiveness of each cluster are documented, and relationships between cluster membership and climate variability across a broad spectrum of time scales are identified. Composites, with respect to cluster membership, of sea surface temperature and other environmental fields show that regional and remote modes of climate variability modulate the cluster members in substantially differing ways and further demonstrate that factors such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic meridional mode (AMM), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) have varying intrabasin influences on North Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes. Relationships with African easterly waves are also considered. The AMM and ENSO are found to most strongly modulate the deep tropical systems, while the MJO most strongly modulates Gulf of Mexico storms and the NAO most strongly modulates storms that form to the north and west of their Cape Verde counterparts and closer to the NAO centers of action. Different clusters also contribute differently to the observed trends in North Atlantic storm frequency and may be related to intrabasin differences in sea surface temperature trends. Frequency trends are dominated by the deep tropical systems, which account for most of the major hurricanes and overall power dissipation. Contrarily, there are no discernable trends in the frequency of Gulf of Mexico storms, which account for the majority of landfalling storms. When the proportion that each cluster contributes to overall frequency is considered, there are clear shifts between the deep tropical systems and the more baroclinic systems. A shift toward proportionally more deep tropical systems began in the early to mid-1980s more than 10 years before the 1995 North Atlantic hurricane season, which is generally used to mark the beginning of the present period of heightened activity.

scholarly journals Climatology and Interannual Variability of North Atlantic Hurricane Tracks

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (24) ◽  
pp. 5370-5381 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lian Xie ◽  
Tingzhuang Yan ◽  
Leonard J. Pietrafesa ◽  
John M. Morrison ◽  
Thomas Karl
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
The United States ◽  
Track Density ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Hurricane ◽  
The North ◽  
Hurricane Track ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Hurricane Tracks

Abstract The spatial and temporal variability of North Atlantic hurricane tracks and its possible association with the annual hurricane landfall frequency along the U.S. East Coast are studied using principal component analysis (PCA) of hurricane track density function (HTDF). The results show that, in addition to the well-documented effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and vertical wind shear (VWS), North Atlantic HTDF is strongly modulated by the dipole mode (DM) of Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) as well as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). Specifically, it was found that Atlantic SST DM is the only index that is associated with all top three empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the Atlantic HTDF. ENSO and tropical Atlantic VWS are significantly correlated with the first and the third EOF of the HTDF over the North Atlantic Ocean. The second EOF of North Atlantic HTDF, which represents the “zonal gradient” of North Atlantic hurricane track density, showed no significant correlation with ENSO or with tropical Atlantic VWS. Instead, it is associated with the Atlantic SST DM, and extratropical processes including NAO and AO. Since for a given hurricane season, the preferred hurricane track pattern, together with the overall basinwide hurricane activity, collectively determines the hurricane landfall frequency, the results provide a foundation for the construction of a statistical model that projects the annual number of hurricanes striking the eastern seaboard of the United States.

scholarly journals Space-Time Sea Surface pCO2 Estimation in the North Atlantic Based on CatBoost

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 2805
Author(s):  
Hongwei Sun ◽  
Junyu He ◽  
Yihui Chen ◽  
Boyu Zhao
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Function Analysis ◽  
Biological Activities ◽  
Mixed Layer Depth ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Sea surface partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a critical parameter in the quantification of air–sea CO2 flux, which plays an important role in calculating the global carbon budget and ocean acidification. In this study, we used chlorophyll-a concentration (Chla), sea surface temperature (SST), dissolved and particulate detrital matter absorption coefficient (Adg), the diffuse attenuation coefficient of downwelling irradiance at 490 nm (Kd) and mixed layer depth (MLD) as input data for retrieving the sea surface pCO2 in the North Atlantic based on a remote sensing empirical approach with the Categorical Boosting (CatBoost) algorithm. The results showed that the root mean square error (RMSE) is 8.25 μatm, the mean bias error (MAE) is 4.92 μatm and the coefficient of determination (R2) can reach 0.946 in the validation set. Subsequently, the proposed algorithm was applied to the sea surface pCO2 in the North Atlantic Ocean during 2003–2020. It can be found that the North Atlantic sea surface pCO2 has a clear trend with latitude variations and have strong seasonal changes. Furthermore, through variance analysis and EOF (empirical orthogonal function) analysis, the sea surface pCO2 in this area is mainly affected by sea temperature and salinity, while it can also be influenced by biological activities in some sub-regions.

The North Atlantic atmosphere-sea surface 14C gradient during the Younger Dryas climatic event

1994 ◽  
Vol 126 (4) ◽  
pp. 275-287 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edouard Bard ◽  
Maurice Arnold ◽  
Jan Mangerud ◽  
Martine Paterne ◽  
Laurent Labeyrie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Younger Dryas ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
Climatic Event ◽  
The North Atlantic

The North Atlantic Ocean as a Modulator of Vegetation Greening/Browning in the Northern High Latitudes?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonard F. Borchert ◽  
Alexander J. Winkler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Dominant Mode ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Internal Climate Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

<p>Vegetation in the northern high latitudes shows a characteristic pattern of persistent changes as documented by multi-decadal satellite observations. The prevailing explanation that these mainly increasing trends (greening) are a consequence of external CO<sub>2</sub> forcing, i.e., due to the ubiquitous effect of CO2-induced fertilization and/or warming of temperature-limited ecosystems, however does not explain why some areas also show decreasing trends of vegetation cover (browning). We propose here to consider the dominant mode of multi-decadal internal climate variability in the north Atlantic region, the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), as the missing link in the explanation of greening and browning trend patterns in the northern high latitudes. Such a link would also imply potential for decadal predictions of ecosystem changes in the northern high latitudes.</p><p>An analysis of observational and reanalysis data sets for the period 1979-2019 shows that locations characterized by greening trends largely coincide with warming summer temperature and increasing precipitation. Wherever either cooling or decreasing precipitation occurs, browning trends are observed over this period. These precipitation and temperature patterns are significantly correlated with a North Atlantic sea surface temperature index that represents the AMV signal, indicating its role in modulating greening/browning trend patterns in the northern high latitudes.</p><p>Using two large ensembles of coupled Earth system model simulations (100 members of MPI-ESM-LR Grand Ensemble and 32 members of the IPSL-CM6A-LR Large Ensemble), we separate the greening/browning pattern caused by external CO<sub>2</sub> forcing from that caused by internal climate variability associated with the AMV. These sets of model simulations enable a clean separation of the externally forced signal from internal variability. While the greening and browning patterns in the simulations do not agree with observations in terms of magnitude and location, we find consistent internally generated greening/browning patterns in both models caused by changes in temperature and precipitation linked to the AMV signal. These greening/browning trend patterns are of the same magnitude as those caused by the external forcing alone. Our work therefore shows that internally-generated changes of vegetation in the northern lands, driven by AMV, are potentially as large as those caused by external CO<sub>2</sub> forcing. We thus argue that the observed pattern of greening/browning in the northern high latitudes could originate from the combined effect of rising CO<sub>2</sub> as well as the AMV.</p>

scholarly journals Bunker Cave stalagmites: an archive for central European Holocene climate variability

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 1687-1720 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Fohlmeister ◽  
A. Schröder-Ritzrau ◽  
D. Scholz ◽  
C. Spötl ◽  
D. F. C. Riechelmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Holocene Climate ◽  
Central European ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Meteoric Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Abstract. Holocene climate was characterised by variability on multi-centennial to multi-decadal time scales. In central Europe, these fluctuations were most pronounced during winter. Here we present a new record of past winter climate variability for the last 10.8 ka based on four speleothems from Bunker Cave, Western Germany. Due to its central European location, the cave site is particularly well suited to record changes in precipitation and temperature in response to changes in the North Atlantic realm. We present high resolution records of δ18O, δ13C values and Mg/Ca ratios. We attribute changes in the Mg/Ca ratio to variations in the meteoric precipitation. The stable C isotope composition of the speleothems most likely reflects changes in vegetation and precipitation and variations in the δ18O signal are interpreted as variations in meteoric precipitation and temperature. We found cold and dry periods between 9 and 7 ka, 6.5 and 5.5 ka, 4 and 3 ka as well as between 0.7 to 0.2 ka. The proxy signals in our stalagmites compare well with other isotope records and, thus, seem representative for central European Holocene climate variability. The prominent 8.2 ka event and the Little Ice Age cold events are both recorded in the Bunker cave record. However, these events show a contrasting relationship between climate and δ18O, which is explained by different causes underlying the two climate anomalies. Whereas the Little Ice Age is attributed to a pronounced negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the 8.2 ka event was triggered by cooler conditions in the North Atlantic due to a slowdown of the Thermohaline Circulation.

scholarly journals Mode transitions in Northern Hemisphere Glaciation: Co-evolution of millennial and orbital variability in Quaternary climate

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Hodell ◽  
James E.T. Channell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Progressive Increase ◽  
The North ◽  
Quaternary Climate ◽  
Mode Transitions ◽  
Millennial Scale

Abstract. We present a 3.2-Myr record of stable isotopes and physical properties at IODP Site U1308 (re-occupation of DSDP Site 609) located within the ice-rafted detritus (IRD) belt of the North Atlantic. We compare the isotope and lithological proxies at Site U1308 with other North Atlantic records (e.g., Sites 982, 607/U1313 and U1304) to reconstruct the history of orbital and millennial-scale climate variability during the Quaternary. The Site U1308 record documents a progressive increase in the intensity of Northern Hemisphere glacial-interglacial cycles during the late Pliocene and Quaternary with mode transitions at ~ 2.7, 1.5, 0.9 and 0.65 Ma. These transitions mark times of change in the growth and stability of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. They also coincide with increases in vertical carbon isotope gradients between the intermediate and deep ocean, suggesting changes in deep carbon storage and atmospheric CO2. Orbital and millennial climate variability co-evolved during the Quaternary such that the trend towards larger ice sheets was accompanied by changes in the style, frequency and intensity of millennial-scale variability. This co-evolution may be important for explaining the observed patterns of Quaternary climate change.

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