Predictability of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity on Intraseasonal Time Scales

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (12) ◽  
pp. 4362-4374 ◽  
Author(s):  
James I. Belanger ◽  
Judith A. Curry ◽  
Peter J. Webster
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Relative Vorticity ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
The North

Abstract Recent work suggests that there may exist skill in forecasting tropical cyclones (TC) using dynamically based ensemble products, such as those obtained from the ECMWF Monthly Forecast System (ECMFS). The ECMFS features an ensemble of 51 coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations integrated to 32 days once per week. Predicted levels of TC activity in the North Atlantic Ocean with these monthly ensemble forecasts is compared with the observed variability during the months of June–October during 2008 and 2009. Results indicate that the forecast system can capture large-scale regions that have a higher or lower risk of TC activity and that it has skill above climatology for the Gulf of Mexico and the “Main Development Region” on intraseasonal time scales. Regional forecast skill is traced to the model’s ability to capture the large-scale evolution of deep-layer vertical shear, the frequency of easterly waves, and the variance in 850-hPa relative vorticity. The predictability of TC activity, along with the forecast utility of the ECMFS, is shown to be sensitive to the phase and intensity of the Madden–Julian oscillation at the time of model initialization.

Developing versus Nondeveloping Disturbances for Tropical Cyclone Formation. Part I: North Atlantic

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (4) ◽  
pp. 1047-1066 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melinda S. Peng ◽  
Bing Fu ◽  
Tim Li ◽  
Duane E. Stevens
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Relative Vorticity ◽  
Water Vapor Content ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Horizontal Shear ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

This study investigates the characteristic differences of tropical disturbances that eventually develop into tropical cyclones (TCs) versus those that did not, using global daily analysis fields of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) from the years 2003 to 2008. Time filtering is applied to the data to extract tropical waves with different frequencies. Waves with a 3–8-day period represent the synoptic-scale disturbances that are representatives as precursors of TCs, and waves with periods greater than 20 days represent the large-scale background environmental flow. Composites are made for the developing and nondeveloping synoptic-scale disturbances in a Lagrangian frame following the disturbances. Similarities and differences between them are analyzed to understand the dynamics and thermodynamics of TC genesis. Part I of this study focuses on events in the North Atlantic, while Part II focuses on the western North Pacific. A box difference index (BDI), accounting for both the mean and variability of the individual sample, is introduced to subjectively and quantitatively identify controlling parameters measuring the differences between developing and nondeveloping disturbances. Larger amplitude of the BDI implies a greater possibility to differentiate the difference between two groups. Based on their BDI values, the following parameters are identified as the best predictors for cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic, in the order of importance: 1) water vapor content within 925 and 400 hPa, 2) rain rate, 3) sea surface temperature (SST), 4) 700-hPa maximum relative vorticity, 5) 1000–600-hPa vertical shear, 6) translational speed, and 7) vertically averaged horizontal shear. This list identifies thermodynamic variables as more important controlling parameters than dynamic variables for TC genesis in the North Atlantic. When the east and west (separated by 40°W) Atlantic are examined separately, the 925–400-hPa water vapor content remains as the most important parameter for both regions. The SST and maximum vorticity at 700 hPa have higher importance in the east Atlantic, while SST becomes less important and the vertically averaged horizontal shear and horizontal divergence become more important in the west Atlantic.

scholarly journals Export of ice sheet meltwater from Upernavik Fjord, West Greenland

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Atlantic Water ◽  
Water Masses ◽  
Buoyant Plume ◽  
Freshwater Input ◽  
The North ◽  
Freshwater Source ◽  
Lateral Mixing

Abstract Meltwater from Greenland is an important freshwater source for the North Atlantic Ocean, released into the ocean at the head of fjords in the form of runoff, submarine melt and icebergs. The meltwater release gives rise to complex in-fjord transformations that result in its dilution through mixing with other water masses. The transformed waters, which contain the meltwater, are exported from the fjords as a new water mass “Glacially Modified Water” (GMW). Here we use summer hydrographic data collected from 2013 to 2019 in Upernavik, a major glacial fjord in northwest Greenland, to describe the water masses that flow into the fjord from the shelf and the exported GMWs. Using an Optimum Multi-Parameter technique across multiple years we then show that GMW is composed of 57.8 ±8.1% Atlantic Water, 41.0 ±8.3% Polar Water, 1.0 ±0.1% subglacial discharge and 0.2 ±0.2% submarine meltwater. We show that the GMW fractional composition cannot be described by buoyant plume theory alone since it includes lateral mixing within the upper layers of the fjord not accounted for by buoyant plume dynamics. Consistent with its composition, we find that changes in GMW properties reflect changes in the AW and PW source waters. Using the obtained dilution ratios, this study suggests that the exchange across the fjord mouth during summer is on the order of 50 mSv (compared to a freshwater input of 0.5 mSv). This study provides a first order parameterization for the exchange at the mouth of glacial fjords for large-scale ocean models.

Detection and characterization of SCVs in the North Atlantic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashwita Chouksey ◽  
Xavier Carton ◽  
Jonathan Gula
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
The North ◽  
Place Of Origin ◽  
Different Depths ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Transport And Mixing

<p>In recent years, the oceanographic community has devoted considerable interest to the study of SCVs (Submesoscale Coherent Vortices, i.e. vortices with radii between 2-30 km, below the first internal radius of deformation); indeed, both mesoscale and submesoscale eddies contribute to the transport and mixing of water masses and of tracers (active and passive), affecting the heat transport, the ventilation pathways and thus having an impact on the large scale circulation.</p><p>In different areas of the ocean, SCVs have been detected, via satellite or in-situ measurements, at the surface or at depth. From these data, SCVs were found to be of different shapes and sizes depending on their place of origin and on their location. Here, we will concentrate rather on the SCVs at depth.</p><p>In this study, we use a high resolution simulation of the North Atlantic ocean with the ROMS-CROCO model. In this simulation, we also identify the SCVs at different depths and densities; we analyse their site and mechanism of generation, their drift, the physical processes conducting to this drift and their interactions with the surrounding flows. We also quantify their physical characteristics (radius, thickness, intensity/vorticity, bias in polarity: cyclones versus anticyclones). We provide averages for these characteristics and standard deviations. </p><p>We compare the model results with the observational data, in particular temperature and salinity profiles from Argo floats and velocity data from currentmeter recordings. </p><p>This study is a first step in the understanding of the formation, occurrences and structure of SCVs in the North Atlantic Ocean, of help to improve their in-situ sampling.</p>

Atmospheric response to the North Atlantic Ocean variability on seasonal to decadal time scales

2012 ◽  
Vol 40 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 2311-2330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guillaume Gastineau ◽  
Fabio D’Andrea ◽  
Claude Frankignoul
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Atmospheric Response ◽  
Ocean Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

On the North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content Change between 1955–70 and 1980–95

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (10) ◽  
pp. 3619-3628 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoming Zhai ◽  
Luke Sheldon
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Gulf Stream ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
The North ◽  
Content Change ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract The upper-ocean heat content of the North Atlantic has undergone significant changes over the last 50 years but the underlying physical mechanisms are not yet well understood. In the present study, the authors examine the North Atlantic ocean heat content change in the upper 700 m between the 1955–70 and 1980–95 periods. Consistent with previous studies, the large-scale pattern consists of warming of the tropics and subtropics and cooling of the subpolar ocean. However, this study finds that the most significant heat content change in the North Atlantic during these two time periods is the warming of the Gulf Stream region. Numerical experiments strongly suggest that this warming in the Gulf Stream region is largely driven by changes of the large-scale wind forcing. Furthermore, the increased ocean heat content in the Gulf Stream region appears to feedback on to the atmosphere, resulting in warmer surface air temperature and enhanced precipitation there.

Investigating the Use of a Genesis Potential Index for Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (24) ◽  
pp. 8611-8626 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cindy L. Bruyère ◽  
Greg J. Holland ◽  
Erin Towler
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Genesis Potential Index ◽  
The North ◽  
Potential Index ◽  
Cyclone Genesis ◽  
Future Work ◽  
Cyclone Frequency

Abstract Large-scale environmental variables known to be linked to the formation of tropical cyclones have previously been used to develop empirical indices as proxies for assessing cyclone frequency from large-scale analyses or model simulations. Here the authors examine the ability of two recent indices, the genesis potential (GP) and the genesis potential index, to reproduce observed North Atlantic cyclone annual frequency variations and trends. These skillfully estimate the mean seasonal variation of observed cyclones, but they struggle with reproducing interannual frequency variability and change. Examination of the independent contributions by the four terms that make up the indices finds that potential intensity and shear have significant skill, while moisture and vorticity either do not contribute to or degrade the indices’ capacity to reproduce observed interannual variability. It is also found that for assessing basinwide cyclone frequency, averaging indices over the whole basin is less skillful than its application to the general area off the coast of Africa broadly covering the main development region (MDR). These results point to a revised index, the cyclone genesis index (CGI), which comprises only potential intensity and vertical shear. Application of the CGI averaged over the MDR demonstrates high and significant skill at reproducing interannual variations and trends in all-basin cyclones across both reanalyses. The CGI also provides a more accurate reproduction of seasonal variations than the original GP. Future work applying the CGI to other tropical cyclone basins and to the downscaling of relatively course climate simulations is briefly addressed.

scholarly journals On the Seasonal and Synoptic Time-Scale Variability of the North Atlantic Trade Wind Region and Its Low-Level Clouds

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (4) ◽  
pp. 1428-1446 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Brueck ◽  
Louise Nuijens ◽  
Bjorn Stevens
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Cloud Amount ◽  
Trade Wind ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract The seasonality in large-scale meteorology and low-level cloud amount (CClow) is explored for a 5° × 5° area in the North Atlantic trades, using 12 years of ERA-Interim and MODIS data, supported by 2 years of Barbados Cloud Observatory (BCO) measurements. From boreal winter to summer, large-scale subsiding motion changes to rising motion, along with an increase in sea surface temperature, a clockwise turning and weakening of low-level winds, and reduced cold-air advection, lower-tropospheric stability (LTS), and surface fluxes. However, CClow is relatively invariant around 30%, except for a minimum of 20% in fall. This minimum is only pronounced when MODIS scenes with large high-level cloud amount are excluded, and a winter maximum in CClow is more pronounced at the BCO. On monthly time scales, wind speed has the best correlation with CClow. Existing large-eddy simulations suggest that the wind speed–CClow correlation may be explained by a direct deepening response of the trade wind layer to stronger winds. Large correlations of wind direction and advection with CClow also suggest that large-scale flow patterns matter. Smaller correlations with CClow are observed for LTS and surface evaporation, as well as negligible correlations for relative humidity (RH) and vertical velocity. However, these correlations considerably increase when only summer is considered. On synoptic time scales, all correlations drop substantially, whereby wind speed, RH, and surface sensible heat flux remain the leading parameters. The lack of a single strong predictor emphasizes that the combined effect of parameters is necessary to explain variations in CClow in the trades.

scholarly journals Generation of Internal Waves by Eddies Impinging on the Western Boundary of the North Atlantic

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 1067-1079 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Clément ◽  
E. Frajka-Williams ◽  
K. L. Sheen ◽  
J. A. Brearley ◽  
A. C. Naveira Garabato
Keyword(s):  
Internal Waves ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler ◽  
Relative Vorticity ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
The North ◽  
Current Profiler ◽  
The North Atlantic

AbstractDespite the major role played by mesoscale eddies in redistributing the energy of the large-scale circulation, our understanding of their dissipation is still incomplete. This study investigates the generation of internal waves by decaying eddies in the North Atlantic western boundary. The eddy presence and decay are measured from the altimetric surface relative vorticity associated with an array of full-depth current meters extending ~100 km offshore at 26.5°N. In addition, internal waves are analyzed over a topographic rise from 2-yr high-frequency measurements of an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP), which is located 13 km offshore in 600-m deep water. Despite an apparent polarity independence of the eddy decay observed from altimetric data, the flow in the deepest 100 m is enhanced for anticyclones (25.2 cm s−1) compared with cyclones (−4.7 cm s−1). Accordingly, the internal wave field is sensitive to this polarity-dependent deep velocity. This is apparent from the eddy-modulated enhanced dissipation rate, which is obtained from a finescale parameterization and exceeds 10−9 W kg−1 for near-bottom flows greater than 8 cm s−1. The present study underlines the importance of oceanic western boundaries for removing the energy of low-mode westward-propagating eddies to higher-mode internal waves.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document