scholarly journals Pacific Shallow Meridional Overturning Circulation in a Warming Climate

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (24) ◽  
pp. 6424-6439 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daiwei Wang ◽  
Mark A. Cane
Keyword(s):  
Surface Layer ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
First Century ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract By analyzing a set of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) climate model projections of the twenty-first century, it is found that the shallow meridional overturning of the Pacific subtropical cells (STCs) show contrasting trends between two hemispheres in a warming climate. The strength of STCs and equivalently the STC surface-layer transport tend to be weakening (strengthening) in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere as a response to large-scale surface wind changes over the tropical Pacific. The STC pycnocline transport convergence into the equatorial Pacific Ocean from higher latitudes shows a robust weakening in the twenty-first century. This weakening is mainly through interior pathways consistent with the relaxation of the zonal pycnocline tilt, whereas the transport change through western boundary pathways is small and not consistent across models. It is found that the change of the western boundary pycnocline transport is strongly affected by the shoaling of the pycnocline base. In addition, there is a robust weakening of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport in a warming climate. In the multimodel ensemble mean, the response to greenhouse warming of the upper-ocean mass balance associated with the STCs is such that the weakening of the equatorward pycnocline transport convergence is balanced by a weakening of the poleward surface-layer transport divergence and the ITF transport of similar amounts.

scholarly journals Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 Models: RCP and Historical Simulations

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (18) ◽  
pp. 7187-7197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Cheng ◽  
John C. H. Chiang ◽  
Dongxiao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
First Century ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
The North ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) simulated by 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for the historical (1850–2005) and future climate is examined. The historical simulations of the AMOC mean state are more closely matched to observations than those of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Similarly to CMIP3, all models predict a weakening of the AMOC in the twenty-first century, though the degree of weakening varies considerably among the models. Under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario, the weakening by year 2100 is 5%–40% of the individual model's historical mean state; under RCP8.5, the weakening increases to 15%–60% over the same period. RCP4.5 leads to the stabilization of the AMOC in the second half of the twenty-first century and a slower (then weakening rate) but steady recovery thereafter, while RCP8.5 gives rise to a continuous weakening of the AMOC throughout the twenty-first century. In the CMIP5 historical simulations, all but one model exhibit a weak downward trend [ranging from −0.1 to −1.8 Sverdrup (Sv) century−1; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1] over the twentieth century. Additionally, the multimodel ensemble–mean AMOC exhibits multidecadal variability with a ~60-yr periodicity and a peak-to-peak amplitude of ~1 Sv; all individual models project consistently onto this multidecadal mode. This multidecadal variability is significantly correlated with similar variations in the net surface shortwave radiative flux in the North Atlantic and with surface freshwater flux variations in the subpolar latitudes. Potential drivers for the twentieth-century multimodel AMOC variability, including external climate forcing and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the implication of these results on the North Atlantic SST variability are discussed.

scholarly journals Meridional Overturning Circulations Driven by Surface Wind and Buoyancy Forcing

2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (11) ◽  
pp. 2701-2714 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Bell
Keyword(s):  
Heat Loss ◽  
Water Mass ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Surface Heat ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
Eastern Boundary ◽  
Transformation Rates ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
Water Mass Transformations

AbstractThe meridional overturning circulation (MOC) can be considered to consist of a downwelling limb in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and an upwelling limb in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) that are connected via western boundary currents. Steady-state analytical gyre-scale solutions of the planetary geostrophic equations are derived for a downwelling limb driven in the NH solely by surface heat loss. In these solutions the rates of the water mass transformations between layers driven by the surface heat loss determine the strength of the downwelling limb. Simple expressions are obtained for these transformation rates that depend on the most southerly latitudes where heat loss occurs and the depths of the isopycnals on the eastern boundary. Previously derived expressions for the water mass transformation rates in subpolar gyres driven by the Ekman upwelling characteristic of the SH are also summarized. Explicit expressions for the MOC transport and the depths of isopycnals on the eastern boundary are then derived by equating the water mass transformations in the upwelling and downwelling limbs. The MOC obtained for a “single-basin” two-layer model is shown to be generally consistent with that obtained by Gnanadesikan. The model’s energetics are derived and discussed. In a world without a circumpolar channel in the SH, it is suggested that the upwelling limb would feed downwelling limbs in both hemispheres. In a world with two basins in the NH, if one of them has a strong halocline the model suggests that the MOC would be very weak in that basin.

scholarly journals Twenty-First-Century Changes in U.S. Regional Heavy Precipitation Frequency Based on Resolved Atmospheric Patterns

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (7) ◽  
pp. 2501-2521 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiang Gao ◽  
C. Adam Schlosser ◽  
Paul A. O’Gorman ◽  
Erwan Monier ◽  
Dara Entekhabi
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
First Century ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Precipitation Events

Precipitation-gauge observations and atmospheric reanalysis are combined to develop an analogue method for detecting heavy precipitation events based on prevailing large-scale atmospheric conditions. Combinations of atmospheric variables for circulation (geopotential height and wind vector) and moisture (surface specific humidity, column and up to 500-hPa precipitable water) are examined to construct analogue schemes for the winter [December–February (DJF)] of the “Pacific Coast California” (PCCA) region and the summer [June–August (JJA)] of the Midwestern United States (MWST). The detection diagnostics of analogue schemes are calibrated with 1979–2005 and validated with 2006–14 NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). All analogue schemes are found to significantly improve upon MERRA precipitation in characterizing the occurrence and interannual variations of observed heavy precipitation events in the MWST. When evaluated with the late twentieth-century climate model simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), all analogue schemes produce model medians of heavy precipitation frequency that are more consistent with observations and have smaller intermodel discrepancies than model-based precipitation. Under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the CMIP5-based analogue schemes produce trends in heavy precipitation occurrence through the twenty-first century that are consistent with model-based precipitation, but with smaller intermodel disparity. The median trends in heavy precipitation frequency are positive for DJF over PCCA but are slightly negative for JJA over MWST. Overall, the analyses highlight the potential of the analogue as a powerful diagnostic tool for model deficiencies and its complementarity to an evaluation of heavy precipitation frequency based on model precipitation alone.

scholarly journals Labrador Sea subsurface density as a precursor of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: a multi-model study

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 419-438
Author(s):  
Pablo Ortega ◽  
Jon I. Robson ◽  
Matthew Menary ◽  
Rowan T. Sutton ◽  
Adam Blaker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Labrador Sea ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
Boundary Density

Abstract. The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) is a region with prominent decadal variability that has experienced remarkable warming and cooling trends in the last few decades. These observed trends have been preceded by slow-paced increases and decreases in the Labrador Sea density (LSD), which are thought to be a precursor of large-scale ocean circulation changes. This article analyses the interrelationships between the LSD and the wider North Atlantic across an ensemble of coupled climate model simulations. In particular, it analyses the link between subsurface density and the deep boundary density, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the subpolar gyre (SPG) circulation, and the upper-ocean temperature in the eastern SPNA. All simulations exhibit considerable multidecadal variability in the LSD and the ocean circulation indices, which are found to be interrelated. LSD is strongly linked to the strength of the subpolar AMOC and gyre circulation, and it is also linked to the subtropical AMOC, although the strength of this relationship is model-dependent and affected by the inclusion of the Ekman component. The connectivity of LSD with the subtropics is found to be sensitive to different model features, including the mean density stratification in the Labrador Sea, the strength and depth of the AMOC, and the depth at which the LSD propagates southward along the western boundary. Several of these quantities can also be computed from observations, and comparison with these observation-based quantities suggests that models representing a weaker link to the subtropical AMOC might be more realistic.

scholarly journals Regional Imprints of Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Eddy-rich Ocean Model VIKING20X

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arne Biastoch ◽  
Franziska U. Schwarzkopf ◽  
Klaus Getzlaff ◽  
Siren Rühs ◽  
Torge Martin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
Current Systems

Abstract. A hierarchy of global 1/4° (ORCA025) and Atlantic Ocean 1/20° nested (VIKING20X) ocean/sea-ice models is described. It is shown that the eddy-rich configurations performed in hindcasts of the past 50–60 years under CORE and JRA55-do atmospheric forcings realistically simulate the large-scale horizontal circulation, the distribution of the mesoscale, overflow and convective processes, and the representation of regional current systems in the North and South Atlantic. The representation, and in particular the long-term temporal evolution, of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strongly depends on numerical choices for the application of freshwater fluxes. The interannual variability of the AMOC instead is highly correlated among the model experiments and also with observations, including the 2010 minimum observed by RAPID at 26.5° N pointing at a dominant role of the forcing. Regional observations in western boundary current systems at 53° N, 26.5° N and 11° S are explored in respect to their ability to represent the AMOC and to monitor the temporal evolution of the AMOC. Apart from the basin-scale measurements at 26.5° N, it is shown that in particular the outflow of North Atlantic Deepwater at 53° N is a good indicator of the subpolar AMOC trend during the recent decades, if the latter is provided in density coordinates. The good reproduction of observed AMOC and WBC trends in the most reasonable simulations indicate that the eddy-rich VIKING20X is capable in representing realistic forcing-related and ocean-intrinsic trends.

scholarly journals Semi-Adiabatic Model of the Deep Stratification and Meridional Overturning

2011 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 757-780 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timour Radko ◽  
Igor Kamenkovich
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Formation Rate ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
Meridional Transport ◽  
The North ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
Circumpolar Current

An analytical model of the Atlantic deep stratification and meridional overturning circulation is presented that illustrates the dynamic coupling between the Southern Ocean and the midlatitude gyres. The model, expressed here in terms of the two-and-a-half-layer framework, predicts the stratification and meridional transport as a function of the mechanical and thermodynamic forcing at the sea surface. The approach is based on the classical elements of large-scale circulation theory—ideal thermocline, inertial western boundary currents, and eddy-controlled Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) models—which are combined to produce a consistent three-dimensional view of the global overturning. The analytical tractability is achieved by assuming and subsequently verifying that the pattern of circulation in the model is largely controlled by adiabatic processes: the time-mean and eddy-induced isopycnal advection of buoyancy. The mean stratification of the lower thermocline is determined by the surface forcing in the ACC and, to a lesser extent, by the North Atlantic Deep Water formation rate. Although the vertical small-scale mixing and the diapycnal eddy-flux components can substantially influence the magnitude of overturning, their effect on the net stratification of the midlatitude ocean is surprisingly limited. The analysis in this paper suggests the interpretation of the ACC as an active lateral boundary layer that does not passively adjust to the prescribed large-scale solution but instead forcefully controls the interior pattern.

scholarly journals Fingerprints for Early Detection of Changes in the AMOC

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (16) ◽  
pp. 7027-7044 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. C. Jackson ◽  
R. A. Wood
Keyword(s):  
Early Detection ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Labrador Sea ◽  
The Past ◽  
Vertical Density ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
Additional Value

AbstractDifferent strategies have been proposed in previous studies for monitoring the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). As well as arrays to directly monitor the AMOC strength, various fingerprints have been suggested to represent an aspect of the AMOC based on properties such as temperature and density. The additional value of fingerprints potentially includes the ability to detect a change earlier than a change in the AMOC itself, the ability to extend a time series back into the past, and the ability to detect crossing a threshold. In this study we select metrics that have been proposed as fingerprints in previous studies and evaluate their ability to detect AMOC changes in a number of scenarios (internal variability, weakening from increased greenhouse gases, weakening from hosing and hysteresis) in the eddy-permitting coupled climate model HadGEM3-GC2. We find that the metrics that perform best are the temperature metrics based on large-scale differences, the large-scale meridional density gradient, and the vertical density difference in the Labrador Sea. The best metric for monitoring the AMOC depends somewhat on the processes driving the change. Hence the best strategy would be to consider multiple fingerprints to provide early detection of all likely AMOC changes.

scholarly journals A 30-year reconstruction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shows no decline

Ocean Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 285-299
Author(s):  
Emma L. Worthington ◽  
Ben I. Moat ◽  
David A. Smeed ◽  
Jennifer V. Mecking ◽  
Robert Marsh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Empirical Model ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Deep Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning

Abstract. A decline in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength has been observed between 2004 and 2012 by the RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS (RAPID – Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array – Western Boundary Time Series, hereafter RAPID array) with this weakened state of the AMOC persisting until 2017. Climate model and paleo-oceanographic research suggests that the AMOC may have been declining for decades or even centuries before this; however direct observations are sparse prior to 2004, giving only “snapshots” of the overturning circulation. Previous studies have used linear models based on upper-layer temperature anomalies to extend AMOC estimates back in time; however these ignore changes in the deep circulation that are beginning to emerge in the observations of AMOC decline. Here we develop a higher-fidelity empirical model of AMOC variability based on RAPID data and associated physically with changes in thickness of the persistent upper, intermediate, and deep water masses at 26∘ N and associated transports. We applied historical hydrographic data to the empirical model to create an AMOC time series extending from 1981 to 2016. Increasing the resolution of the observed AMOC to approximately annual shows multi-annual variability in agreement with RAPID observations and shows that the downturn between 2008 and 2012 was the weakest AMOC since the mid-1980s. However, the time series shows no overall AMOC decline as indicated by other proxies and high-resolution climate models. Our results reinforce that adequately capturing changes to the deep circulation is key to detecting any anthropogenic climate-change-related AMOC decline.

Can satellites replace mooring arrays? Satellite altimetry transport estimates of the Atlantic overturning meridional circulation along the RAPID 26°N mooring array

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandra Sanchez-Franks ◽  
Eleanor Frajka-Williams ◽  
Ben Moat
Keyword(s):  
Surface Layer ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Satellite Altimetry ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Function Analysis ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Return Flow ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
Oceanic Circulation

<p>The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a large-scale oceanic circulation comprising a 2-layer flow: the net northward flow in the upper 1000 m of the Atlantic and net southward flow below. Variations in the AMOC have significant repercussions for the climate system hence there is a need for proxies that can measure changes in the AMOC on larger spatial scales. Here we show a direct calculation of ocean circulation at 26°N from satellites compares well with transport estimates from the RAPID mooring array. In the surface layer (1000 m), transport is estimated from satellite altimetry and has a correlation of r=0.79 (significant at 95% level) with the MOC transport estimates from RAPID. We find that the relationship between sea level anomaly and dynamic height from the western boundary RAPID moorings is robust in the surface layer, with poor agreement occurring largely below 1000 m. Below 1000 m, the return flow of the AMOC is estimated using ocean bottom pressure from satellite gravimetry. This has a correlation of r=0.75 (significant at the 95% level) when compared to the deeper (1000-5000 m) RAPID transports. Combining the results from satellite altimetry and gravimetry, estimates of full-depth 2-layer circulation at 26°N are demonstrated. Finally, empirical orthogonal function analysis reveals that the barotropic and baroclinic streamfunctions are linked to wind stress curl and buoyancy forcing, respectively.</p>

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