scholarly journals Influence of Twenty-First-Century Atmospheric and Sea Surface Temperature Forcing on West African Climate

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 527-542 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher B. Skinner ◽  
Moetasim Ashfaq ◽  
Noah S. Diffenbaugh
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
African Climate

Abstract The persistence of extended drought events throughout West Africa during the twentieth century has motivated a substantial effort to understand the mechanisms driving African climate variability as well as the possible response to elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. An ensemble of global climate model experiments is used to examine the relative roles of future direct atmospheric radiative forcing and SST forcing in shaping potential future changes in boreal summer precipitation over West Africa. The authors find that projected increases in precipitation throughout the western Sahel result primarily from direct atmospheric radiative forcing. The changes in atmospheric forcing generate a slight northward displacement and weakening of the African easterly jet (AEJ), a strengthening of westward monsoon flow onto West Africa, and an intensification of the tropical easterly jet (TEJ). Alternatively, the projected decreases in precipitation over much of the Guinea Coast region are caused by SST changes induced by the atmospheric radiative forcing. The changes in SSTs generate a weakening of the monsoon westerlies and the TEJ as well as a decrease in low-level convergence and resultant rising air throughout the midlevels of the troposphere. Experiments suggest a potential shift in the regional moisture balance of West Africa should global radiative forcing continue to increase, highlighting the importance of climate system feedbacks in shaping the response of regional-scale climate to global-scale changes in radiative forcing.

scholarly journals Comparison of ice particle characteristics simulated by the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) with in-situ observations

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 7637-7681 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Eidhammer ◽  
H. Morrison ◽  
A. Bansemer ◽  
A. Gettelman ◽  
A. J. Heymsfield
Keyword(s):  
Size Distribution ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Slope Parameter ◽  
Cloud Radiative Forcing ◽  
Threshold Size ◽  
Cloud Ice

Abstract. Detailed measurements of ice crystals in cirrus clouds were used to compare with results from the Community Atmospheric Model Version 5 (CAM5) global climate model. The observations are from two different field campaigns with contrasting conditions: Atmospheric Radiation Measurements Spring Cloud Intensive Operational Period in 2000 (ARM-IOP), which was characterized primarily by midlatitude frontal clouds and cirrus, and Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling (TC4), which was dominated by anvil cirrus. Results show that the model typically overestimates the slope parameter of the exponential size distributions of cloud ice and snow, while the variation with temperature (height) is comparable. The model also overestimates the ice/snow number concentration (0th moment of the size distribution) and underestimates higher moments (2nd through 5th), but compares well with observations for the 1st moment. Overall the model shows better agreement with observations for TC4 than for ARM-IOP in regards to the moments. The mass-weighted terminal fallspeed is lower in the model compared to observations for both ARM-IOP and TC4, which is partly due to the overestimation of the size distribution slope parameter. Sensitivity tests with modification of the threshold size for cloud ice to snow autoconversion (Dcs) do not show noticeable improvement in modeled moments, slope parameter and mass weighed fallspeed compared to observations. Further, there is considerable sensitivity of the cloud radiative forcing to Dcs, consistent with previous studies, but no value of Dcs improves modeled cloud radiative forcing compared to measurements. Since the autoconversion of cloud ice to snow using the threshold size Dcs has little physical basis, future improvement to combine cloud ice and snow into a single category, eliminating the need for autoconversion, is suggested.

How detailed do cloud microphysics need to be in climate models?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrike Proske ◽  
Sylvaine Ferrachat ◽  
David Neubauer ◽  
Ulrike Lohmann
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Computing Time ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Model Response ◽  
Microphysical Processes ◽  
Improved Accuracy

<p>Clouds are of major importance for the climate system, but the radiative forcing resulting from their interaction with aerosols remains uncertain. To improve the representation of clouds in climate models, the parameterisations of cloud microphysical processes (CMPs) have become increasingly detailed. However, more detailed climate models do not necessarily result in improved accuracy for estimates of radiative forcing (Knutti and Sedláček, 2013; Carslaw et al., 2018). On the contrary, simpler formulations are cheaper, sufficient for some applications, and allow for an easier understanding of the respective process' effect in the model.</p><p>This study aims to gain an understanding which CMP parameterisation complexity is sufficient through simplification. We gradually phase out processes such as riming or aggregation from the global climate model ECHAM-HAM, meaning that the processes are only allowed to exhibit a fraction of their effect on the model state. The shape of the model response as a function of the artificially scaled effect of a given process helps to understand the importance of this process for the model response and its potential for simplification. For example, if partially removing a process induces only minor alterations in the present day climate, this process presents as a good candidate for simplification. This may be then further investigated, for example in terms of computing time.<br>The resulting sensitivities to CMP complexity are envisioned to guide CMP model simplifications as well as steer research towards those processes where a more accurate representation proves to be necessary.</p><p> </p><p><br>Carslaw, Kenneth, Lindsay Lee, Leighton Regayre, and Jill Johnson (Feb. 2018). “Climate Models Are Uncertain, but We Can Do Something About It”. In: Eos 99. doi: 10.1029/2018EO093757</p><p>Knutti, Reto and Jan Sedláček (Apr. 2013). “Robustness and Uncertainties in the New CMIP5 Climate Model Projections”. In: Nature Climate Change 3.4, pp. 369–373. doi: 10.1038/nclimate1716</p>

Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Forcing Efficiency in the UVB for Regions Affected by Saharan and Asian Mineral Dust

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 1033-1040 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. E. García ◽  
A. M. Díaz ◽  
F. J. Expósito ◽  
J. P. Díaz ◽  
A. Redondas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Aerosol Optical Depth ◽  
Optical Depth ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Mineral Dust ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Aerosol Radiative Forcing ◽  
Benchmark Database ◽  
Aerosol Radiative

Abstract The influence of mineral dust on ultraviolet energy transfer is studied for two different mineralogical origins. The aerosol radiative forcing ΔF and the forcing efficiency at the surface ΔFeff in the range 290–325 nm were estimated in ground-based stations affected by the Saharan and Asian deserts during the dusty seasons. UVB solar measurements were taken from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Data Center (WOUDC) for four Asian stations (2000–04) and from the Santa Cruz Observatory, Canary Islands (2002–03), under Gobi and Sahara Desert influences, respectively. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical depth at 550 nm was used to characterize the aerosol load τ, whereas the aerosol index provided by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) sensor was employed to identify the mineral dust events. The ΔF is strongly affected by the aerosol load, the values found being comparable in both regions during the dusty seasons. Under those conditions, ΔF values as large as −1.29 ± 0.53 W m−2 (τ550 = 0.48 ± 0.24) and −1.43 ± 0.38 W m−2 (τ550 = 0.54 ± 0.26) were reached under Saharan and Asian dust conditions, respectively. Nevertheless, significant differences have been observed in the aerosol radiative forcing per unit of aerosol optical depth in the slant path, τS. The maximum ΔFeff values associated with dust influences were −1.55 ± 0.20 W m−2 τS550−1 for the Saharan region and −0.95 ± 0.11 W m−2 τS550−1 in the Asian area. These results may be used as a benchmark database for establishing aerosol corrections in UV satellite products or in global climate model estimations.

scholarly journals An Investigation of the Connections among Convection, Clouds, and Climate Sensitivity in a Global Climate Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 1845-1862 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Entrainment Rate ◽  
Cloud Radiative Forcing ◽  
Precipitation Efficiency ◽  
Perturbed Physics

Abstract This study explores connections between process-level modeling of convection and global climate model (GCM) simulated clouds and cloud feedback to global warming through a set of perturbed-physics and perturbed sea surface temperature experiments. A bulk diagnostic approach is constructed, and a set of variables is derived and demonstrated to be useful in understanding the simulated relationship. In particular, a novel bulk quantity, the convective precipitation efficiency or equivalently the convective detrainment efficiency, is proposed as a simple measure of the aggregated properties of parameterized convection important to the GCM simulated clouds. As the convective precipitation efficiency increases in the perturbed-physics experiments, both liquid and ice water path decrease, with low and middle cloud fractions diminishing at a faster rate than high cloud fractions. This asymmetry results in a large sensitivity of top-of-atmosphere net cloud radiative forcing to changes in convective precipitation efficiency in this limited set of models. For global warming experiments, intermodel variations in the response of cloud condensate, low cloud fraction, and total cloud radiative forcing are well explained by model variations in response to total precipitation (or detrainment) efficiency. Despite significant variability, all of the perturbed-physics models produce a sizable increase in precipitation efficiency to warming. A substantial fraction of the increase is due to its convective component, which depends on the parameterization of cumulus mixing and convective microphysical processes. The increase in convective precipitation efficiency and associated change in convective cloud height distribution owing to warming explains the increased cloud feedback and climate sensitivity in recently developed Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GCMs. The results imply that a cumulus scheme using fractional removal of condensate for precipitation and inverse calculation of the entrainment rate tends to produce a lower climate sensitivity than a scheme using threshold removal for precipitation and the entrainment rate formulated inversely dependent on convective depth.

AN EQUATION OF STATE FOR LAND SURFACE CLIMATES

2011 ◽  
Vol 21 (12) ◽  
pp. 3577-3587 ◽  
Author(s):  
KLAUS FRAEDRICH ◽  
FRANK SIELMANN
Keyword(s):  
Equation Of State ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
State Parameter ◽  
Lake Area ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Change Analysis

A biased coinflip Ansatz provides a stochastic regional scale surface climate model of minimum complexity, which represents physical and stochastic properties of the rainfall–runoff chain. The solution yields the Schreiber–Budyko relation as an equation of state describing land surface vegetation, river runoff and lake areas in terms of physical flux ratios, which are associated with three thresholds. Validation of consistency and predictability within a Global Climate Model (GCM) environment demonstrates the stochastic rainfall–runoff chain to be a viable surrogate model for regional climate state averages and variabilites. A terminal (closed) lake area ratio is introduced as a new climate state parameter, which quantifies lake overflow as a threshold in separating water from energy limited climate regimes. A climate change analysis based on the IPCC A1B scenario is included for completeness.

scholarly journals A comprehensive history of climate and habitat stability of the last 800&thinsp,000 years

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Krapp ◽  
Robert Beyer ◽  
Stephen L. Edmundson ◽  
Paul J. Valdes ◽  
Andrea Manica
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Geological Time ◽  
Comprehensive Overview ◽  
Long Term Stability ◽  
History Of

Abstract. A detailed and accurate reconstruction of the past climate is essential in understanding the interactions between ecosystems and their environment through time. We know that climatic drivers have shaped the distribution and evolution of species, including our own, and their habitats. Yet, spatially-detailed climate reconstructions that continuously cover the Quaternary do not exist. This is mainly because no paleoclimate model can reconstruct regional-scale dynamics over geological time scales. Here we develop a statistical emulator, the Global Climate Model Emulator (GCMET), which reconstructs the climate of the last 800 000 years with unprecedented spatial detail. GCMET captures the temporal dynamics of glacial-interglacial climates as an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity would whilst resolving the local dynamics with the accuracy of a Global Climate Model. It provides a new, unique resource to explore the climate of the Quaternary, which we use to investigate the long-term stability of major habitat types. We identify a number of stable pockets of habitat that have remained unchanged over the last 800 thousand years, acting as potential long-term evolutionary refugia. Thus, the highly detailed, comprehensive overview of climatic changes through time delivered by GCMET provides the needed resolution to quantify the role of long term habitat change and fragmentation in an ecological and anthropological context.

scholarly journals Modelling sea salt aerosol and its direct and indirect effects on climate

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 14939-14987 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Ma ◽  
K. von Salzen ◽  
J. Li
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Sea Salt ◽  
Size Distributions ◽  
Size Dependent ◽  
Sea Salt Aerosol ◽  
Direct Forcing ◽  
Log Normal

Abstract. A size-dependent sea salt aerosol parameterization was developed based on the piecewise log-normal approximation (PLA) for aerosol size distributions. Results of this parameterization from simulations with a global climate model produce good agreement with observations at the surface and for vertically-integrated volume size distributions. The global and annual mean of the sea salt burden is 10.1 mg m−2. The direct radiative forcing is calculated to be −1.52 and −0.60 W m−2 for clear sky and all sky, respectively. The first indirect radiative forcing is about twice as large as the direct forcing for all-sky (−1.34 W m−2). The results also show that the total indirect forcing of sea salt is −2.9 W m−2 if climatic feedbacks are taken into account. The sensitivity of the forcings to changes in the burdens and sizes of sea salt particles was also investigated based on additional simulations with a different sea salt source function.

scholarly journals Validation of a transient dynamical downscaling simulation approach with multi-model ensemble-based GCM bias corrections

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongfeng Xu ◽  
Ying Han ◽  
Chi-Yung Tam ◽  
Zong-Liang Yang ◽  
Congbin Fu
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Improved Performance

Abstract Dynamical downscaling is the most widely used physics-based approach to obtaining fine-scale weather and climate information. However, traditional dynamical downscaling approaches are often degraded by biases in the large-scale forcing. To improve the confidence in future projection of regional climate, we used a novel bias-corrected global climate model (GCM) dataset to drive a regional climate model (RCM) over the period for 1980–2014. The dynamical downscaling simulations driven by the original GCM dataset (MPI-ESM1-2-HR model) (hereafter WRF_GCM), the bias-corrected GCM (hereafter WRF_GCMbc) are validated against that driven by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5 dataset (hereafter WRF_ERA5), respectively. The results suggest that, compared with the WRF_GCM, the WRF_GCMbc shows a 50–90% reduction in RMSEs of the climatological mean of downscaled variables (e.g. temperature, precipitation, wind, relative humidity). Similarly, the WRF_GCMbc also shows improved performance in simulating the interannual variability of downscaled variables. The RMSEs of interannual variances of downscaled variables are reduced by 30–60%. An EOF analysis suggests that the WRF_GCMbc can successfully reproduce the dominant tri-pole mode in the interannual summer precipitation variations observed over eastern China as opposed to the mono-pole precipitation pattern simulated by the WRF_GCM. Such improvements are primarily caused by the correct simulation of the location of the western North Pacific subtropical high by the WRF_GCMbc due to the GCM bias correction.

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