When Uncertainty is Certain: A Nuanced Trust between Emergency Managers and Forecast Information in the Southeastern United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-146
Author(s):  
Rachael N. Cross ◽  
Daphne S. LaDue
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Management ◽  
Critical Incident ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Social Science Research ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Exact Science ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Management Personnel ◽  
Emergency Managers

AbstractWeather forecasting is not an exact science, and, in regions near the southern end of the Appalachian Mountains, the vastly different types of topography and frequency of rapidly forming storms can result in high uncertainty in severe weather forecasts. NOAA created its VORTEX-Southeast (SE) research program to tackle these unique challenges and integrate them with social science research to increase the survivability of southeastern U.S. weather. As part of VORTEX-SE, this study focused on the severe weather preparation and decision-making of emergency management and, in particular, how uncertainty in severe weather forecasts impacted the relationship between emergency managers (EMs) and weather providers. We conducted in-depth, critical incident background interviews with 35 emergency management personnel across 14 counties. An inductive, data-driven analysis approach revealed several factors contributing to an added layer of practical uncertainty beyond the meteorological forecast uncertainty that impacted and helped to explain the nature of trust in the EM–National Weather Service (NWS) relationship. No- or short-notice events, null events, gaps in information, and differences in perspectives when compared with weather forecasters have led emergency managers to modify their procedures in ways that position them to adapt quickly to unexpected changes in the forecast. The need to do so creates a complex, nuanced trust between these groups. This paper explains how EMs developed a nuanced trust of forecast information, how that trust is a recognition of the inherent uncertainty in severe weather forecasts, and how to strengthen the NWS–EM relationship.

scholarly journals The Impact of the Storm Prediction Center's Convective Outlooks and Watches on Emergency Management Operational Planning

2021 ◽  
pp. 36-46
Author(s):  
Heather A. Cross ◽  
Dennis Cavanaugh ◽  
Christopher C. Buonanno ◽  
Amy Hyman
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Management ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Emergency Operations ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Storm Prediction ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact

For many emergency managers (EMs) and National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters, Convective Outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) influence the preparation for near-term severe weather events. However, research into how and when EMs utilize that information, and how it influences their emergency operations plan, is limited. Therefore, to better understand how SPC Convective Outlooks are used for severe weather planning, a survey was conducted of NWS core partners in the emergency management sector. The results show EMs prefer to wait until an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms is issued to prepare for severe weather. In addition, the Day 2 Convective Outlook serves as the threshold for higher, value-based decision making. The survey was also used to analyze how the issuance of different risk levels in SPC Convective Outlooks impact emergency management preparedness compared to preparations conducted when a Convective Watch is issued.

scholarly journals Increasing the Value of Uncertain Weather and River Forecasts for Emergency Managers

2016 ◽  
Vol 97 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frauke Hoss ◽  
Paul Fischbeck
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
High Water ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Local Network ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Many

Abstract Emergency managers (EMs) use National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts to prepare for and respond to severe weather events. To effectively facilitate such decision making, the NWS needs to understand this large and important group of clients. EMs translate the forecasts to local topography, suggest actions to take in preparation of high water levels, and use their local network and reputation to make people act. For this study, 17 EMs in towns along rivers were interviewed and asked to describe their use of river and weather forecasts. Forecast uncertainty is one of the many uncertainties an EM has to manage when coordinating an emergency response. Each of the interviewed EMs who uses river forecasts was acutely aware that river forecasts often have substantial uncertainty. To cope with this uncertainty, EMs engage in extensive information gathering before forming their own judgments. However, EMs often do not communicate their judgment of the situation to the public, fearing potential liability claims and backlash from the media. For emergency management decisions, while EMs do consider forecast data, they rely heavily on recorded data and monitoring crews, limiting the benefits of forecasts that can be made with significant lead time. This paper arrives at recommendations for the NWS on how to increase the value of river and weather forecasts for decision making in emergency management.

Achieving Agility in Disaster Management

2011 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
John R. Harrald
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Open Systems ◽  
Social Science Research ◽  
Science Research ◽  
The United States ◽  
Organizational Systems ◽  
The Social ◽  
Professional Practitioners

A significant body of social science research has concluded that improvisation in distributed, collaborative, open systems is the key to success in responding to and recovering from extreme events. The evolution of emergency management in the United States since the 9-11 attacks has emphasized the development of doctrine, process, and structure. In earlier work I concluded that both the agility desired by the social sciences and the discipline created by the professional practitioners are essential. This article explores how agility can be developed within a disciplined system and concludes that the keys are the development of outcome based goals, adaptive leadership, and technology that supports collaborative sense-making and decision making in open, organizational systems.

scholarly journals Understanding emergency manager forecast use in severe weather events.

2018 ◽  
pp. 95-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean Ernst ◽  
Daphne LaDue ◽  
Alan Gerard
Keyword(s):  
Critical Incident ◽  
Information Needs ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Relational Trust ◽  
Forecast Uncertainty ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Emergency Manager ◽  
Uncertainty Information ◽  
The Impact

For Emergency Managers (EMs), preparations for severe weather have always relied on accurate, well-communicated National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts. As part of their constant work to improve these forecasts, the NWS has recently begun to develop impact-based products that share forecast uncertainty information with EMs, including the Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) tool. However, there is a lack of research investigating what forecast uncertainty information EMs understand, and what information needs exist in the current communication paradigm. This study used the Critical Incident Technique to identify themes from incidents involving weather forecast information that went well, or not so well, from the perspective of the EMs responding to them. In total, 11 EMs from a variety of locales east of the Rockies were interviewed—six of whom were county-level, two city, two state, and one from a school district. We found that EMs sought increased forecast detail as a potential event approached in time and built relational trust in the NWS through repeated interactions. EMs had difficulty preparing for events when they did not have details of the expected impacts, or the likelihood of those impacts, for their regions. In summary, EMs are already starting to work in an uncertainty-friendly frame and could be responsive to the impact details and increased forecaster relations proposed with the PHI tool.

Strategies to Prepare Emergency Management Personnel to Integrate Geospatial Tools into Emergency Management

2011 ◽  
pp. 245-261
Author(s):  
Tricia Toomey ◽  
Eric Frost ◽  
Murray E. Jennex
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Management ◽  
Disaster Management ◽  
Work Experience ◽  
Earthquake Epicenter ◽  
Management Personnel ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Diverse Field ◽  
Mitigation Planning ◽  
Geospatial Tools ◽  
Response And Recovery

Emergency management is a diverse field. Effective disaster management involves knowledge of various subjects as well as work experience in all aspects related to mitigation, planning, response, and recovery efforts. One field not being fully exploited by disaster management is the use of geospatial tools in the form of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), cartography, and geovisualization. One reason for this is that many emergency managers are not fully aware of the assistance GIS can lend to effectively manage disaster situations. All functions of emergency management have a strong geographic component. Where is the earthquake epicenter? Where is the damage? Where does the dam inundation run and who/what is in that path? Where is the area of road closures? The questions asking “where” are endless in effective emergency management and range from the mitigation stage through to the recovery stage. For example, a tsunami may inundate only a certain portion of the region, therefore, it is important to have mitigation and planning efforts concentrated in those regions. It is also important to know what businesses, housing, and populations are in the affected areas. The integration of geospatial tools for risk assessment, mitigation, planning, response, and recovery efforts is emerging as an effective and potentially invaluable resource for answering such questions in regards to emergency management.

scholarly journals The Experimental Warning Program of NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-51
Author(s):  
Kristin M. Calhoun ◽  
Kodi L. Berry ◽  
Darrel M. Kingfield ◽  
Tiffany Meyer ◽  
Makenzie J. Krocak ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Physical Space ◽  
Transition Process ◽  
The United States ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Research Technology ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Technology And Communication ◽  
Hazardous Weather

AbstractNOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) is a physical space and research framework to foster collaboration and evaluate emerging tools, technology, and products for NWS operations. The HWT’s Experimental Warning Program (EWP) focuses on research, technology, and communication that may improve severe and hazardous weather warnings and societal response. The EWP was established with three fundamental hypotheses: 1) collaboration with operational meteorologists increases the speed of the transition process and rate of adoption of beneficial applications and technology, 2) the transition of knowledge between research and operations benefits both the research and operational communities, and 3) including end-users in experiments generates outcomes that are more reliable and useful for society. The EWP is designed to mimic the operations of any NWS Forecast Office, providing the opportunity for experiments to leverage live and archived severe weather activity anywhere in the United States. During the first decade of activity in the EWP, 15 experiments covered topics including: new radar and satellite applications, storm-scale numerical models and data assimilation, total lightning use in severe weather forecasting, and multiple social science and end-user topics. The experiments range from exploratory and conceptual research to more controlled experimental design to establish statistical patterns and causal relationships. The EWP brought more than 400 NWS forecasters, 60 emergency managers, and 30 broadcast meteorologists to the HWT to participate in live demonstrations, archive events, and data-denial experiments influencing today’s operational warning environment and shaping the future of warning research, technology, and communication for years to come.

Strategies to Prepare Emergency Management Personnel to Integrate Geospatial Tools into Emergency Management

2009 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 33-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tricia Toomey ◽  
Eric Frost ◽  
Murray E. Jennex
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Management ◽  
Disaster Management ◽  
Work Experience ◽  
Recovery Stage ◽  
Management Personnel ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Diverse Field ◽  
Mitigation Planning ◽  
Geospatial Tools ◽  
Response And Recovery

Emergency management is a diverse field. Effective disaster management involves knowledge of various subjects as well as work experience in all aspects related to mitigation, planning, response, and recovery efforts. One field not being fully exploited by disaster management is the use of geospatial tools in the form of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), cartography, and geovisualization. One reason for this is that many emergency managers are not fully aware of the assistance GIS can lend to effectively manage disaster situations. All functions of emergency management have a strong geographic component. Where is the earthquake epicenter? Where is the damage? Where does the dam inundation run and who/what is in that path? Where is the area of road closures? The questions asking “where” are endless in effective emergency management and range from the mitigation stage through to the recovery stage. For example, a tsunami may inundate only a certain portion of the region, therefore, it is important to have mitigation and planning efforts concentrated in those regions. It is also important to know what businesses, housing, and populations are in the affected areas. The integration of geospatial tools for risk assessment, mitigation, planning, response, and recovery efforts is emerging as an effective and potentially invaluable resource for answering such questions in regards to emergency management.

scholarly journals Vulnerability, Canadian Disaster Law, and The Beast

2018 ◽  
pp. 853 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jocelyn Stacey
Keyword(s):  
Social Science ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Social Science Research ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Structural Features ◽  
Fort Mcmurray ◽  
Disaster Vulnerability ◽  
Canadian Law

This article argues that Canadian law plays a central role in creating and ameliorating conditions of disaster vulnerability. Using the circumstances surrounding the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire for context, the article identifies and assesses the shared, structural features of Canada’s emergency management laws and their application to “natural” disasters. This article argues that these laws lag behind foundational social science research on disasters. It argues that Canadian emergency management laws fail to incorporate a multi-faceted vulnerability perspective, which leaves communities unnecessarily susceptible to disaster harm. This article offers some preliminary suggestions on how Canadian disaster law can begin to integrate a vulnerability perspective to rectify existing gaps and flaws at all stages of the disaster cycle.

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