Decadal Relationship between European Blocking and the North Atlantic Oscillation during 1978–2011. Part I: Atlantic Conditions

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (3) ◽  
pp. 1152-1173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dehai Luo ◽  
Yao Yao ◽  
Aiguo Dai
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Western Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
The North ◽  
Nao Index ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract Both the positive and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+ and NAO−, respectively) and atmospheric blocking in the Euro-Atlantic sector reflect synoptic variability over the region and thus are intrinsically linked. This study examines their relationship from a decadal change perspective. Since the winter-mean NAO index is defined as a time average of instantaneous NAO indices over the whole winter, it is unclear how the activity of European blocking (EB) events can be related to the variation of the positive mean NAO index. Here, this question is examined by dividing the winter period 1978–2011 into two decadal epochs: 1978–94 (P1) with an increasing and high NAO index and 1995–2011 (P2) with a decreasing and low NAO index. Using atmospheric reanalysis data, it is shown that there are more intense and persistent EB events in eastern Europe during P1 than during P2, while the opposite is true for western Europe. It is further shown that there are more NAO+ (NAO−) events during P1 (P2). The EB events associated with NAO+ events extend more eastward and are associated with stronger Atlantic mean zonal wind and weaker western Atlantic storm track during P1 than during P2, but EB events associated with NAO− events increase in western Europe under opposite Atlantic conditions during P2. Thus, the increase in the number of individual NAO+ (NAO−) events results in more EB events in eastern (western) Europe during P1 (P2). The EB change is also associated with the increased frequency of NAO− to NAO+ (NAO+ to NAO−) transition events.

scholarly journals Dynamical analysis of a reduced model for the North Atlantic Oscillation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Courtney Quinn ◽  
Dylan Harries ◽  
Terence J. O’Kane
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Unstable State ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

AbstractThe dynamics of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are analyzed through a data-driven model obtained from atmospheric reanalysis data. We apply a regularized vector autoregressive clustering technique to identify recurrent and persistent states of atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic sector (110°W-0°E, 20°N-90°N). In order to analyze the dynamics associated with the resulting cluster-based models, we define a time-dependent linear delayed map with a switching sequence set a priori by the cluster affiliations at each time step. Using a method for computing the covariant Lyapunov vectors (CLVs) over various time windows, we produce sets of mixed singular vectors (for short windows) and approximate the asymptotic CLVs (for longer windows). The growth rates and alignment of the resulting time-dependent vectors are then analyzed. We find that the window chosen to compute the vectors acts as a filter on the dynamics. For short windows, the alignment and changes in growth rates are indicative of individual transitions between persistent states. For long windows, we observe an emergent annual signal manifest in the alignment of the CLVs characteristic of the observed seasonality in the NAO index. Analysis of the average finite-time dimension reveals the NAO− as the most unstable state relative to the NAO+, with persistent AR states largely stable. Our results agree with other recent theoretical and empirical studies that have shown blocking events to have less predictability than periods of enhanced zonal flow.

scholarly journals The North Atlantic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Jet Variability: Precursors to NAO Regimes and Transitions

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (12) ◽  
pp. 3763-3787 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dehai Luo ◽  
Jing Cha
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Dominant Negative ◽  
Wind Condition ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic Jet

Abstract In this paper, precursors to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and its transitions are investigated to understand the dynamical cause of the interdecadal NAO variability from dominant negative (NAO−) events during 1950–77 (P1) to dominant positive (NAO+) events during 1978–2010 (P2). It is found that the phase of the NAO event depends strongly on the latitudinal position of the North Atlantic jet (NAJ) prior to the NAO onset. The NAO− (NAO+) events occur frequently when the NAJ core prior to the NAO onset is displaced southward (northward), as the situation within P1 (P2). Thus, the northward (southward) shift of the NAJ from its mean position is a precursor to the NAO+ (NAO−) event. This finding is further supported by results obtained from a weakly nonlinear model. Furthermore, the model results show that, when the Atlantic mean zonal wind exceeds a critical strength under which the dipole anomaly prior to the NAO onset is stationary, in situ NAO− (NAO+) events, which are events not preceded by opposite events, can occur frequently during P1 (P2) when the Atlantic storm track is not too strong. This mean zonal wind condition is easily satisfied during P1 and P2. However, when the Atlantic storm track (mean zonal wind) prior to the NAO onset is markedly intensified (weakened), the NAO event can undergo a transition from one phase to another, especially in a relatively strong background westerly wind, the Atlantic storm track has to be strong enough to produce a phase transition.

scholarly journals Coupled decadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation, regional rainfall and karst spring discharges in the Campania region (southern Italy)

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 1389-1399 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. De Vita ◽  
V. Allocca ◽  
F. Manna ◽  
S. Fabbrocino
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Karst Spring ◽  
The North ◽  
Nao Index ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract. Thus far, studies on climate change have focused mainly on the variability of the atmospheric and surface components of the hydrologic cycle, investigating the impact of this variability on the environment, especially with respect to the risks of desertification, droughts and floods. Conversely, the impacts of climate change on the recharge of aquifers and on the variability of groundwater flow have been less investigated, especially in Mediterranean karst areas whose water supply systems depend heavily upon groundwater exploitation. In this paper, long-term climatic variability and its influence on groundwater recharge were analysed by examining decadal patterns of precipitation, air temperature and spring discharges in the Campania region (southern Italy), coupled with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The time series of precipitation and air temperature were gathered over 90 yr, from 1921 to 2010, using 18 rain gauges and 9 air temperature stations with the most continuous functioning. The time series of the winter NAO index and of the discharges of 3 karst springs, selected from those feeding the major aqueducts systems, were collected for the same period. Regional normalised indexes of the precipitation, air temperature and karst spring discharges were calculated, and different methods were applied to analyse the related time series, including long-term trend analysis using smoothing numerical techniques, cross-correlation and Fourier analysis. The investigation of the normalised indexes highlighted the existence of long-term complex periodicities, from 2 to more than 30 yr, with differences in average values of up to approximately ±30% for precipitation and karst spring discharges, which were both strongly correlated with the winter NAO index. Although the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) had already been demonstrated in the long-term precipitation and streamflow patterns of different European countries and Mediterranean areas, the results of this study allow for the establishment of a link between a large-scale atmospheric cycle and the groundwater recharge of carbonate karst aquifers. Consequently, the winter NAO index could also be considered as a proxy to forecast the decadal variability of groundwater flow in Mediterranean karst areas.

scholarly journals Rainfall-triggered landslides in the Lisbon region over 2006 and relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 483-499 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. L. Zêzere ◽  
R. M. Trigo ◽  
M. Fragoso ◽  
S. C. Oliveira ◽  
R. A. C. Garcia
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Rainfall Threshold ◽  
Antecedent Rainfall ◽  
Landslide Activity ◽  
The North ◽  
Nao Index ◽  
Landslide Event ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract. Landslides occurred in the Lisbon area during the last 50 years were almost always induced by rainfall and have been used to establish rainfall thresholds for regional landslide activity. In 2006, three new rainfall-triggered landslide events occurred in the study area, namely on the 20 March, the 25–27 October, and the 28 November. Landslide events occurred in March and October 2006 include shallow translational slides and few debris flows, and the corresponding absolute antecedent rainfall was found to be above the threshold for durations ranging from 4 to 10 days. These events also fit the combined threshold of daily precipitation and 5 days calibrated antecedent rainfall values. Likewise the landslide event that took place in late November 2006 includes some slope movements with deeper slip surfaces, when compared with landslides dating from March and October. Moreover, the corresponding absolute antecedent rainfall was also found to be above the 40-day period rainfall threshold. Here we characterize in detail the short and long-term atmospheric circulation conditions that were responsible for the intense rainfall episodes that have triggered the corresponding landslide events. It is shown that the three rainfall episodes correspond to considerably different synoptic atmospheric patterns, with the March episode being associated to an intense cut-off low system while the October and November episodes appear to be related to more typical Atlantic low pressure systems (and associated fronts) travelling eastwards. Finally, we analyse the role played by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during those months marked by landslide activity. It is shown that the NAO index was consistently negative (usually associated with above average precipitation) for the months prior to the landslide events, i.e. between October 2005 and March 2006, and again between August and October 2006.

scholarly journals Coral calcification responses to the North Atlantic Oscillation and coral bleaching in Bermuda

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. e0241854
Author(s):  
Travis A. Courtney ◽  
Theodor Kindeberg ◽  
Andreas J. Andersson
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Coral Bleaching ◽  
Inverse Correlation ◽  
Life History Strategies ◽  
Coral Calcification ◽  
The North ◽  
Nao Index ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been hypothesized to drive interannual variability in Bermudan coral extension rates and reef-scale calcification through the provisioning of nutritional pulses associated with negative NAO winters. However, the direct influence of the NAO on Bermudan coral calcification rates remains to be determined and may vary between species and reef sites owing to implicit differences in coral life history strategies and environmental gradients across the Bermuda reef platform. In this study, we investigated the connection between negative NAO winters and Bermudan Diploria labyrinthiformis, Pseudodiploria strigosa, and Orbicella franksi coral calcification rates across rim reef, lagoon, and nearshore reef sites. Linear mixed effects modeling detected an inverse correlation between D. labyrinthiformis calcification rates and the winter NAO index, with higher rates associated with increasingly negative NAO winters. Conversely, there were no detectable correlations between P. strigosa or O. franksi calcification rates and the winter NAO index suggesting that coral calcification responses associated with negative NAO winters could be species-specific. The correlation between coral calcification rates and winter NAO index was significantly more negative at the outer rim of the reef (Hog Reef) compared to a nearshore reef site (Whalebone Bay), possibly indicating differential influence of the NAO as a function of the distance from the reef edge. Furthermore, a negative calcification anomaly was observed in 100% of D. labyrinthiformis cores in association with the 1988 coral bleaching event with a subsequent positive calcification anomaly in 1989 indicating a post-bleaching recovery in calcification rates. These results highlight the importance of assessing variable interannual coral calcification responses between species and across inshore-offshore gradients to interannual atmospheric modes such as the NAO, thermal stress events, and potential interactions between ocean warming and availability of coral nutrition to improve projections for future coral calcification rates under climate change.

scholarly journals Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Winter Precipitations and Storm Track Variability in Southeast Canada and Northeast US

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julien Chartrand ◽  
Francesco Salvatore Rocco Pausata
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North America ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
The United States ◽  
Eastern North America ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) affects atmospheric variability from eastern North America to Europe. Although the link between the NAO and winter precipitations in the eastern North America have been the focus of previous work, only few studies have hitherto provided clear physical explanations on these relationships. In this study we revisit and extend the analysis of the effect of the NAO on winter precipitations over a large domain covering southeast Canada and the northeastern United States. Furthermore, here we use the recent ERA5 reanalysis dataset (1979–2018), which currently has the highest available horizontal resolution for a global reanalysis (0.25°), to track extratropical cyclones to delve into the physical processes behind the relationship between NAO and precipitation, snowfall, snowfall-to-precipitation ratio (S/P), and snow cover depth anomalies in the region. In particular, our results show that positive NAO phases are associated with less snowfall over a wide region covering Nova Scotia, New England and the Mid-Atlantic of the United States relative to negative NAO phases. Henceforth, a significant negative correlation is also seen between S/P and the NAO over this region. This is due to a decrease (increase) in cyclogenesis of coastal storms near the United States east coast during positive (negative) NAO phases, as well as a northward (southward) displacement of the mean storm track over North America.

scholarly journals Intercontinental transport of tropospheric ozone: a study of its seasonal variability across the North Atlantic utilizing tropospheric ozone residuals and its relationship to the North Atlantic Oscillation

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 2053-2066 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. K. Creilson ◽  
J. Fishman ◽  
A. E. Wozniak
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Positive Phase ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Using the empirically-corrected tropospheric ozone residual (TOR) technique, which utilizes coincident observations of total ozone from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and stratospheric ozone profiles from the Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV) instruments, the seasonal and regional distribution of tropospheric ozone across the North Atlantic from 1979-2000 is examined. Its relationship to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is also analyzed as a possible transport mechanism across the North Atlantic. Monthly climatologies of tropospheric ozone for five different regions across the North Atlantic exhibit strong seasonality. The correlation between these monthly climatologies of the TOR and ozonesonde profiles at nearby sites in both eastern North America and western Europe are highly significant (R values of +0.98 and +0.96 respectively) and help to validate the use of satellite retrievals of tropospheric ozone. Distinct springtime interannual variability over North Atlantic Region 5 (eastern North Atlantic-western Europe) is particularly evident and exhibits similar variability to the positive phase of the NAO (R=+0.61, r=<0.01). Positive phases of the NAO are indicative of a stronger Bermuda-Azores high and a stronger Icelandic low and thus faster more zonal flow across the North Atlantic from west to east. This flow regime appears to be causing the transport of tropospheric ozone across the North Atlantic and onto Europe. The consequence of such transport is the impact on a downwind region's ability to meet their ozone attainment goals. This link between the positive phase of the NAO and increased tropospheric ozone over Region 5 could be an important tool for prediction of such pollution outbreaks.

scholarly journals The Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in Shaping Regional-Scale Peak Seasonal Precipitation across the Indian Subcontinent

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shouraseni Sen Roy
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
The North ◽  
Nao Index ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The present study focuses on the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in shaping the regional-level precipitation during the peak months of the two main rainy seasons over the Indian subcontinent. Monthly precipitation data from 1871 to 2005 were collected for 30 homogenous regions across the subcontinent. Regression analysis was used to analyze the strength of the relationship between NAO on regional-level precipitation patterns. The results of the study showed distinct spatial variations in the response of regional-level rainfall to the monthly NAO index. There were greater variations in the strength of the regression coefficients for peak monsoon rainfall (PMR) compared to the peak winter rainfall (PWR) season. During the latter half of the year, the association between PMR and the NAO index was predominantly negative. In general, the role of NAO was more pronounced across most of the regions in the peninsular India.

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