Simulation of Late-Twenty-First-Century Changes in Wintertime Atmospheric Circulation over Europe Due to Anthropogenic Causes

2004 ◽  
Vol 17 (24) ◽  
pp. 4630-4635 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurent Terray ◽  
Marie-Estelle Demory ◽  
Michel Déqué ◽  
Gaelle de Coetlogon ◽  
Eric Maisonnave
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract Evidence is presented, based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios performed with a global general circulation model of the atmosphere with high horizontal resolution over Europe, to suggest that the end-of-century anthropogenic climate change over the North Atlantic–European region strongly projects onto the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation during wintertime. It is reflected in a doubling of the residence frequency of the climate system in the associated circulation regime, in agreement with the nonlinear climate perspective. The strong increase in the amplitude of the response, compared to coarse-resolution coupled model studies, suggests that improved model representation of regional climate is needed to achieve more reliable projections of anthropogenic climate change on European climate.

scholarly journals Marine productivity response to Heinrich events: a model-data comparison

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 1581-1598 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Mariotti ◽  
L. Bopp ◽  
A. Tagliabue ◽  
M. Kageyama ◽  
D. Swingedouw
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Heinrich Events ◽  
The North ◽  
Heinrich Event ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Marine Productivity

Abstract. Marine sediments records suggest large changes in marine productivity during glacial periods, with abrupt variations especially during the Heinrich events. Here, we study the response of marine biogeochemistry to such an event by using a biogeochemical model of the global ocean (PISCES) coupled to an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (IPSL-CM4). We conduct a 400-yr-long transient simulation under glacial climate conditions with a freshwater forcing of 0.1 Sv applied to the North Atlantic to mimic a Heinrich event, alongside a glacial control simulation. To evaluate our numerical results, we have compiled the available marine productivity records covering Heinrich events. We find that simulated primary productivity and organic carbon export decrease globally (by 16% for both) during a Heinrich event, albeit with large regional variations. In our experiments, the North Atlantic displays a significant decrease, whereas the Southern Ocean shows an increase, in agreement with paleo-productivity reconstructions. In the Equatorial Pacific, the model simulates an increase in organic matter export production but decreased biogenic silica export. This antagonistic behaviour results from changes in relative uptake of carbon and silicic acid by diatoms. Reasonable agreement between model and data for the large-scale response to Heinrich events gives confidence in models used to predict future centennial changes in marine production. In addition, our model allows us to investigate the mechanisms behind the observed changes in the response to Heinrich events.

The Effect of a Large Freshwater Perturbation on the Glacial North Atlantic Ocean Using a Coupled General Circulation Model

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (17) ◽  
pp. 4436-4447 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. D. Hewitt ◽  
A. J. Broccoli ◽  
M. Crucifix ◽  
J. M. Gregory ◽  
J. F. B. Mitchell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Quasi Equilibrium ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract The commonly held view of the conditions in the North Atlantic at the last glacial maximum, based on the interpretation of proxy records, is of large-scale cooling compared to today, limited deep convection, and extensive sea ice, all associated with a southward displaced and weakened overturning thermohaline circulation (THC) in the North Atlantic. Not all studies support that view; in particular, the “strength of the overturning circulation” is contentious and is a quantity that is difficult to determine even for the present day. Quasi-equilibrium simulations with coupled climate models forced by glacial boundary conditions have produced differing results, as have inferences made from proxy records. Most studies suggest the weaker circulation, some suggest little or no change, and a few suggest a stronger circulation. Here results are presented from a three-dimensional climate model, the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3), of the coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice system suggesting, in a qualitative sense, that these diverging views could all have occurred at different times during the last glacial period, with different modes existing at different times. One mode might have been characterized by an active THC associated with moderate temperatures in the North Atlantic and a modest expanse of sea ice. The other mode, perhaps forced by large inputs of meltwater from the continental ice sheets into the northern North Atlantic, might have been characterized by a sluggish THC associated with very cold conditions around the North Atlantic and a large areal cover of sea ice. The authors’ model simulation of such a mode, forced by a large input of freshwater, bears several of the characteristics of the Climate: Long-range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) Project’s reconstruction of glacial sea surface temperature and sea ice extent.

scholarly journals Modelling the wintertime response to upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric ozone anomalies over the North Atlantic and Europe

2003 ◽  
Vol 21 (10) ◽  
pp. 2107-2118 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Kirchner ◽  
D. Peters
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sensitivity Study ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Radiative Processes ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. During boreal winter months, mean longitude-dependent ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are mainly caused by different ozone transport by planetary waves. The response to radiative perturbation induced by these ozone changes near the tropopause on the circulation is unclear. This response is investigated with the ECHAM4 general circulation model in a sensitivity study. In the simulation two different mean January realizations of the ozone field are implemented in ECHAM4. Both ozone fields are estimated on the basis of the observed mean January planetary wave structure of the 1980s. The first field represents a 14-year average (reference, 1979–1992) and the second one represents the mean ozone field change (anomaly, 1988–92) in boreal extra-tropics during the end of the 1980s. The model runs were carried out pairwise, with identical initial conditions for both ozone fields. Five statistically independent experiments were performed, forced with the observed sea surface temperatures for the period 1988 to 1992. The results support the hypothesis that the zonally asymmetric ozone changes of the 80s triggered a systematic alteration of the circulation over the North Atlantic – European region. It is suggested that this feedback process is important for the understanding of the decadal coupling between troposphere and stratosphere, as well as between subtropics and extra-tropics in winter.Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (general circulation; radiative processes; synoptic-scale meteorology)

scholarly journals Large-Scale Controls on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity on Seasonal Time Scales

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (18) ◽  
pp. 6727-6749 ◽  
Author(s):  
Young-Kwon Lim ◽  
Siegfried D. Schubert ◽  
Oreste Reale ◽  
Andrea M. Molod ◽  
Max J. Suarez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
The North ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract Interannual variations in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity (e.g., genesis frequency and location, track pattern, and landfall) over the Atlantic are explored by employing observationally constrained simulations with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5), atmospheric general circulation model. The climate modes investigated are El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM). The results show that the NAO and AMM can strongly modify and even oppose the well-known ENSO impacts, like in 2005, when a strong positive AMM (associated with warm SSTs and a negative SLP anomaly over the western tropical Atlantic) led to a very active TC season with enhanced TC genesis over the Caribbean Sea and a number of landfalls over North America, under a neutral ENSO condition. On the other end, the weak TC activity during 2013 (characterized by weak negative Niño index) appears caused by a NAO-induced positive SLP anomaly with enhanced vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic. During 2010, the combined impact of the three modes produced positive SST anomalies across the entire low-latitudinal Atlantic and a weaker subtropical high, leading to more early recurvers and thus fewer landfalls despite enhanced TC genesis. The study provides evidence that TC number and track are very sensitive to the relative phases and intensities of these three modes and not just to ENSO alone. Examination of seasonal predictability reveals that the predictive skill of the three modes is limited over tropics to subtropics, with the AMM having the highest predictability over the North Atlantic, followed by ENSO and NAO.

scholarly journals Effect of vegetation on the Late Miocene ocean circulation

2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 605-631 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Lohmann ◽  
M. Butzin ◽  
A. Micheels ◽  
T. Bickert ◽  
V. Mosbrugger
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Late Miocene ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. A weak and shallow thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean is related to an open Central American gateway and exchange with fresh Pacific waters. We estimate the effect of vegetation on the ocean general circulation using the atmospheric circulation model simulations for the Late Miocene climate. Caused by an increase in net evaporation in the Miocene North Atlantic, the North Atlantic water becomes more saline which enhances the overturning circulation and thus the northward heat transport. This effect reveals a potentially important feedback between the ocean circulation, the hydrological cycle and the land surface cover for Cenozoic climate evolution.

scholarly journals Environmental response to the cold climate event 8200 years ago as recorded at Højby Sø, Denmark

2008 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 57-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Rasmussen ◽  
Mikkel Ulfeldt Hede ◽  
Nanna Noe-Nygaard ◽  
Annemarie L. Clarke ◽  
Rolf D. Vinebrooke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Lake Ecosystem ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

The need for accurate predictions of future environmental change under conditions of global warming has led to a great interest in the most pronounced climate change known from the Holocene: an abrupt cooling event around 8200 years before present (present = A.D. 1950), also known as the ‘8.2 ka cooling event’ (ka = kilo-annum = 1000 years). This event has been recorded as a negative δ18O excursion in the central Greenland ice cores (lasting 160 years with the lowest temperature at 8150 B.P.; Johnsen et al. 1992; Dansgaard 1993; Alley et al. 1997; Thomas et al. 2007) and in a variety of other palaeoclimatic archives including lake sediments, ocean cores, speleothems, tree rings, and glacier oscillations from most of the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. Alley & Ágústsdóttir 2005; Rohling & Pälike 2005). In Greenland the maximum cooling was estimated to be 6 ± 2°C (Alley et al. 1997) while in southern Fennoscandia and the Baltic countries pollenbased quantitative temperature reconstructions indicate a maximum annual mean temperature decrease of around 1.5°C (e.g. Seppä et al. 2007). Today there is a general consensus that the primary cause of the cooling event was the final collapse of the Laurentide ice sheet near Hudson Bay and the associated sudden drainage of the proglacial Lake Agassiz into the North Atlantic Ocean around 8400 B.P. (Fig. 1; Barber et al. 1999; Kleiven et al. 2008). This freshwater outflow, estimated to amount to c. 164,000 km3 of water, reduced the strength of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and thereby the heat transported to the North Atlantic region, resulting in an atmospheric cooling (Barber et al. 1999; Clark et al. 2001; Teller et al. 2002). The climatic consequences of this meltwater flood are assumed to be a good geological analogue for future climate-change scenarios, as a freshening of the North Atlantic is projected by almost all global-warming models (e.g. Wood et al. 2003; IPCC 2007) and is also currently being registered in the region (Curry et al. 2003). In an ongoing project, the influence of the 8.2 ka cooling event on a Danish terrestrial and lake ecosystem is being investigated using a variety of biological and geochemical proxy data from a sediment core extracted from Højby Sø, north-west Sjælland (Fig. 2). Here we present data on changes in lake hydrology and terrestrial vegetation in response to climate change, inferred from macrofossil data and pollen analysis, respectively.

scholarly journals A multi-decadal meridional displacement of the Subpolar Front in the Newfoundland Basin

Ocean Science ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Núñez-Riboni ◽  
M. Bersch ◽  
H. Haak ◽  
J. H. Jungclaus ◽  
K. Lohmann
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
The North ◽  
Meridional Displacement ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Newfoundland Basin

Abstract. Observations since the 1950s show a multi-decadal cycle of a meridional displacement of the Subpolar Front (SPF) in the Newfoundland Basin (NFB) in the North Atlantic. The SPF displacement is associated with corresponding variations in the path of the North Atlantic Current. We use the ocean general circulation model MPIOM with enhanced horizontal and vertical resolutions and forced with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to study the relation of the SPF displacement to atmospheric forcing, intensities of the subpolar gyre (SPG) and Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC), and Labrador Sea Water (LSW) volume. The simulations indicate that the SPF displacement is associated with a circulation anomaly between the SPG and the subtropical gyre (STG), an inter-gyre gyre with a multi-decadal time scale. A sensitivity experiment indicates that both wind stress curl (WSC) and heat fluxes (which match LSW changes) contribute to the circulation anomalies in the frontal region and to the SPF displacement. An anticyclonic inter-gyre gyre is related to negative WSC and LSW anomalies and to a SPF north of its climatological position, indicating an expanding STG. A cyclonic inter-gyre gyre is related to positive WSC and LSW anomalies and a SPF south of its climatological position, indicating an expanding SPG. Therefore, the mean latitudinal position of the SPF in the NFB (a "SPF index") could be an indicator of the amount of LSW in the inter-gyre region. Spreading of LSW anomalies intensifies the MOC, suggesting our SPF index as predictor of the MOC intensity at multi-decadal time scales. The meridional displacement of the SPF has a pronounced influence on the meridional heat transport, both on its gyre and overturning components.

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