Changes in the Extratropical Storm Tracks in Response to Changes in SST in an AGCM

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 1854-1870 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lise Seland Graff ◽  
J. H. LaCasce
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Lower Boundary ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Poleward Shift ◽  
The Mean

Abstract A poleward shift in the extratropical storm tracks has been identified in observational and climate simulations. The authors examine the role of altered sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the storm-track position and intensity in an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) using realistic lower boundary conditions. A set of experiments was conducted in which the SSTs where changed by 2 K in specified latitude bands. The primary profile was inspired by the observed trend in ocean temperatures, with the largest warming occurring at low latitudes. The response to several other heating patterns was also investigated, to examine the effect of imposed gradients and low- versus high-latitude heating. The focus is on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter, averaged over a 20-yr period. Results show that the storm tracks respond to changes in both the mean SST and SST gradients, consistent with previous studies employing aquaplanet (water only) boundary conditions. Increasing the mean SST strengthens the Hadley circulation and the subtropical jets, causing the storm tracks to intensify and shift poleward. Increasing the SST gradient at midlatitudes similarly causes an intensification and a poleward shift of the storm tracks. Increasing the gradient in the tropics, on the other hand, causes the Hadley cells to contract and the storm tracks to shift equatorward. Consistent shifts are seen in the mean zonal velocity, the atmospheric baroclinicity, the eddy heat and momentum fluxes, and the atmospheric meridional overturning circulation. The results support the idea that oceanic heating could be a contributing factor to the observed shift in the storm tracks.

scholarly journals Storm Track Shifts under Climate Change: What Can Be Learned from Large-Scale Dry Dynamics

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (24) ◽  
pp. 9923-9930 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheikh Mbengue ◽  
Tapio Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Phase Changes ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Convective Stability ◽  
Poleward Shift

Abstract Earth’s storm tracks are instrumental for transporting heat, momentum, and moisture and thus strongly influence the surface climate. Climate models, supported by a growing body of observational data, have demonstrated that storm tracks shift poleward as the climate warms. But the dynamical mechanisms responsible for this shift remain unclear. To isolate what portion of the storm track shift may be accounted for by large-scale dry dynamics alone, disregarding the latent heat released in phase changes of water, this study investigates the storm track shift under various kinds of climate change in an idealized dry general circulation model (GCM) with an adjustable but constant convective stability. It is found that increasing the mean surface temperature or the convective stability leads to poleward shifts of storm tracks, even if the convective stability is increased only in a narrow band around the equator. Under warming and convective stability changes roughly corresponding to a doubling of CO2 concentrations from a present-day Earthlike climate, storm tracks shift about 0.8° poleward, somewhat less than but in qualitative agreement with studies using moist GCMs. About 63% (0.5°) of the poleward shift is shown to be caused by tropical convective stability variations. This demonstrates that tropical processes alone (the increased dry static stability of a warmer moist adiabat) can account for part of the poleward shift of storm tracks under global warming. This poleward shift generally occurs in tandem with a poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation; however, the Hadley circulation expansion does not always parallel the storm track shift.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Late-Glacial and Holocene Climates to the Combined Effects of Orbital Parameter Changes and Lower Boundary Condition Changes: “Snapshot” Simulations with A General Circulation Model for 18, 9, AND 6 ka BP

1984 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 85-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
John E. Kutzbach ◽  
P. J. Guetter
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Lower Boundary ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Late Glacial ◽  
Orbital Parameter ◽  
Ocean Temperature ◽  
Parameter Values

Sensitivity experiments can be used to illustrate the response of the general circulation to prescribed changes in lower boundary conditions (such as ocean temperature) or external forcing conditions (such as solar radiation). The climatic record from the late-glacial and the Holocene provides examples for both types of prescribed change experiments. A number of general circulation model experiments have been carried out. These are reviewed.At 18 ka 8P, orbital parameter values were very much like those of today, but the lower boundary conditions (ocean temperature, ice-sheet extent, etc.) were very different. The change in ocean temperature, and ice-sheet extent and thickness, were prescribed from the results of the Climate: Long-range Investigation Mapping and Prediction (CLIMAP) project.At 9 ka BP, orbital parameter values were very different from present, leading to increased radiation in July and decreased radiation in January (compared to present). The North American ice sheet still covered a significant area, so that lower boundary conditions also differed from the present ones. The combined and individual effects of these prescribed changes on the general circulation are reviewed, particularly in the context of changes of the monsoon circulation.At 6 ka BP, the solar radiation distribution differed from that of today in much the same fashion as at 9 ka BP, although the magnitude of the change was reduced. Lower boundary conditions were probably very similar to those of today.A series of experimental results from 18, 9, and 6 ka BP are presented as “snapshot” estimates of the paleoclimate of those times. The results are based upon simulations with the community climate model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

scholarly journals The Steady-State Atmospheric Circulation Response to Climate Change–like Thermal Forcings in a Simple General Circulation Model

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (13) ◽  
pp. 3474-3496 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy H. Butler ◽  
David W. J. Thompson ◽  
Ross Heikes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Steady State ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Polar Surface ◽  
Tropical Troposphere ◽  
Polar Stratosphere

Abstract The steady-state extratropical atmospheric response to thermal forcing is investigated in a simple atmospheric general circulation model. The thermal forcings qualitatively mimic three key aspects of anthropogenic climate change: warming in the tropical troposphere, cooling in the polar stratosphere, and warming at the polar surface. The principal novel findings are the following: 1) Warming in the tropical troposphere drives two robust responses in the model extratropical circulation: poleward shifts in the extratropical tropospheric storm tracks and a weakened stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation. The former result suggests heating in the tropical troposphere plays a fundamental role in the poleward contraction of the storm tracks found in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-class climate change simulations; the latter result is in the opposite sense of the trends in the Brewer–Dobson circulation found in most previous climate change experiments. 2) Cooling in the polar stratosphere also drives a poleward shift in the extratropical storm tracks. The tropospheric response is largely consistent with that found in previous studies, but it is shown to be very sensitive to the level and depth of the forcing. In the stratosphere, the Brewer–Dobson circulation weakens at midlatitudes, but it strengthens at high latitudes because of anomalously poleward heat fluxes on the flank of the polar vortex. 3) Warming at the polar surface drives an equatorward shift of the storm tracks. The storm-track response to polar warming is in the opposite sense of the response to tropical tropospheric heating; hence large warming over the Arctic may act to attenuate the response of the Northern Hemisphere storm track to tropical heating. 4) The signs of the tropospheric and stratospheric responses to all thermal forcings considered here are robust to seasonal changes in the basic state, but the amplitude and details of the responses exhibit noticeable differences between equinoctial and wintertime conditions. Additionally, the responses exhibit marked nonlinearity in the sense that the response to multiple thermal forcings applied simultaneously is quantitatively different from the sum of the responses to the same forcings applied independently. Thus the response of the model to a given thermal forcing is demonstrably dependent on the other thermal forcings applied to the model.

scholarly journals PlioMIP2 simulations using the MIROC4m climate model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wing-Le Chan ◽  
Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Model Data

Abstract. The second phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2) has attracted many climate modelling groups in its continuing efforts to better understand the climate of the mid-Piacenzian warm period (mPWP) when atmospheric CO2 was last closest to present day levels. Like the first phase, PlioMIP1, it is an internationally coordinated initiative that allows for a systematic comparison of various models in a similar manner to PMIP. Model intercomparison and model-data comparison now focus specifically on the interglacial at marine isotope stage KM5c (3.205 Ma) and experimental design is not only based on new boundary conditions but includes various sensitivity experiments. In this study, we present results from long-term model integrations using the MIROC4m atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model, developed at the institutes CCSR/NIES/FRCGC in Japan. The core experiment, with CO2 levels set to 400 ppm, shows a warming of 3.1 °C compared to the Pre-Industrial, with two-thirds of the warming being contributed by the increase in CO2. Although this level of warming is less than that in the equivalent PlioMIP1 experiment, there is a slightly better agreement with proxy sea surface temperature (SST) data at PRISM3 locations, especially in the northern North Atlantic where there were large model-data discrepancies in PlioMIP1. Similar changes in precipitation and sea ice are seen and the Arctic remains ice-free in the summer. However, unlike PlioMIP1, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is now stronger than that of the Pre-Industrial, even though increasing CO2 tends to weaken it. This stronger AMOC is a consequence of a closed Bering Strait in the PlioMIP2 paleogeography. Also, when present day boundary conditions are replaced by those of the Pliocene, the dependency of the AMOC strength on CO2 is significantly weakened. Sensitivity tests show that lower values of CO2 give a global SST which is overall more consistent with the PRISM3 SST field presented in PlioMIP1. Inclusion of dynamical vegetation and the effects of all realistic orbital configurations should be considered in future experiments using MIROC4m for the mPWP.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Late-Glacial and Holocene Climates to the Combined Effects of Orbital Parameter Changes and Lower Boundary Condition Changes: “Snapshot” Simulations with A General Circulation Model for 18, 9, AND 6 ka BP

1984 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 85-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
John E. Kutzbach ◽  
P. J. Guetter
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Lower Boundary ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Late Glacial ◽  
Orbital Parameter ◽  
Ocean Temperature ◽  
Parameter Values

Sensitivity experiments can be used to illustrate the response of the general circulation to prescribed changes in lower boundary conditions (such as ocean temperature) or external forcing conditions (such as solar radiation). The climatic record from the late-glacial and the Holocene provides examples for both types of prescribed change experiments. A number of general circulation model experiments have been carried out. These are reviewed.At 18 ka 8P, orbital parameter values were very much like those of today, but the lower boundary conditions (ocean temperature, ice-sheet extent, etc.) were very different. The change in ocean temperature, and ice-sheet extent and thickness, were prescribed from the results of the Climate: Long-range Investigation Mapping and Prediction (CLIMAP) project.At 9 ka BP, orbital parameter values were very different from present, leading to increased radiation in July and decreased radiation in January (compared to present). The North American ice sheet still covered a significant area, so that lower boundary conditions also differed from the present ones. The combined and individual effects of these prescribed changes on the general circulation are reviewed, particularly in the context of changes of the monsoon circulation.At 6 ka BP, the solar radiation distribution differed from that of today in much the same fashion as at 9 ka BP, although the magnitude of the change was reduced. Lower boundary conditions were probably very similar to those of today.A series of experimental results from 18, 9, and 6 ka BP are presented as “snapshot” estimates of the paleoclimate of those times. The results are based upon simulations with the community climate model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

scholarly journals Hadley Circulation Response to Orbital Precession. Part I: Aquaplanets

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 740-753 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy M. Merlis ◽  
Tapio Schneider ◽  
Simona Bordoni ◽  
Ian Eisenman
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Lower Boundary ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Momentum Balance ◽  
Summer Solstice ◽  
Net Radiation ◽  
Flux Divergence ◽  
Orbital Precession ◽  
Gross Moist Stability

Abstract The response of the monsoonal and annual-mean Hadley circulation to orbital precession is examined in an idealized atmospheric general circulation model with an aquaplanet slab-ocean lower boundary. Contrary to expectations, the simulated monsoonal Hadley circulation is weaker when perihelion occurs at the summer solstice than when aphelion occurs at the summer solstice. The angular momentum balance and energy balance are examined to understand the mechanisms that produce this result. That the summer with stronger insolation has a weaker circulation is the result of an increase in the atmosphere’s energetic stratification, the gross moist stability, which increases more than the amount required to balance the change in atmospheric energy flux divergence necessitated by the change in top-of-atmosphere net radiation. The solstice-season changes result in annual-mean Hadley circulation changes (e.g., changes in circulation strength).

scholarly journals The Importance of Ocean Dynamical Feedback for Understanding the Impact of Mid–High-Latitude Warming on Tropical Precipitation Change

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 2417-2434 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masakazu Yoshimori ◽  
Ayako Abe-Ouchi ◽  
Hiroaki Tatebe ◽  
Toru Nozawa ◽  
Akira Oka
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transport ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Precipitation Change ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Ocean Heat Transport ◽  
Tropical Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

It has been shown that asymmetric warming between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere extratropics induces a meridional displacement of tropical precipitation. This shift is believed to be due to the extra energy transported from the differentially heated hemisphere through changes in the Hadley circulation. Generally, the column-integrated energy flux in the mean meridional overturning circulation follows the direction of the upper, relatively dry branch, and tropical precipitation tends to be intensified in the hemisphere with greater warming. This framework was originally applied to simulations that did not include ocean dynamical feedback, but was recently extended to take the ocean heat transport change into account. In the current study, an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model applied with a regional nudging technique is used to investigate the impact of extratropical warming on tropical precipitation change under realistic future climate projections. It is shown that warming at latitudes poleward of 40° causes the northward displacement of tropical precipitation from October to January. Warming at latitudes poleward of 60° alone has a much smaller effect. This change in the tropical precipitation is largely explained by the atmospheric moisture transport caused by changes in the atmospheric circulation. The larger change in ocean heat transport near the equator, relative to the atmosphere, is consistent with the extended energy framework. The current study provides a complementary dynamical framework that highlights the importance of midlatitude atmospheric eddies and equatorial ocean upwelling, where the atmospheric eddy feedback modifies the Hadley circulation resulting in the northward migration of precipitation and the ocean dynamical feedback damps the northward migration from the equator.

scholarly journals Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by the internal atmospheric variability

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 2305-2348 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Gelfan ◽  
V. A. Semenov ◽  
E. Gusev ◽  
Y. Motovilov ◽  
O. Nasonova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Lower Boundary ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Ensemble Simulations ◽  
The Mean

Abstract. An approach is proposed to assess hydrological simulation uncertainty originating from internal atmospheric variability. The latter is one of three major factors contributing to the uncertainty of simulated climate change projections (along with so-called "forcing" and "climate model" uncertainties). Importantly, the role of the internal atmospheric variability is the most visible over the spatial–temporal scales of water management in large river basins. The internal atmospheric variability is represented by large ensemble simulations (45 members) with the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model. The ensemble simulations are performed using identical prescribed lower boundary conditions (observed sea surface temperature, SST, and sea ice concentration, SIC, for 1979–2012) and constant external forcing parameters but different initial conditions of the atmosphere. The ensemble of the bias-corrected ECHAM5-outputs as well as ensemble averaged ECHAM5-output are used as the distributed input for ECOMAG and SWAP hydrological models. The corresponding ensembles of runoff hydrographs are calculated for two large rivers of the Arctic basin: the Lena and the Northern Dvina rivers. A number of runoff statistics including the mean and the SD of the annual, monthly and daily runoff, as well as the annual runoff trend are assessed. The uncertainties of runoff statistics caused by the internal atmospheric variability are estimated. It is found that the uncertainty of the mean and SD of the runoff has a distinguished seasonal dependence with maximum during the periods of spring-summer snowmelt and summer-autumn rainfall floods. A noticeable non-linearity of the hydrological models' response to the ensemble ECHAM5 output is found most strongly expressed for the Northern Dvine River basin. It is shown that the averaging over ensemble members effectively filters stochastic term related to internal atmospheric variability. The simulated trends are close to normally distributed around ensemble mean value that indicates that a considerable portion of the observed trend can be externally driven.

scholarly journals The Effect of Topography on Storm-Track Intensity in a Relatively Simple General Circulation Model

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (2) ◽  
pp. 393-411 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seok-Woo Son ◽  
Mingfang Ting ◽  
Lorenzo M. Polvani
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Wave Packets ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Background Flow ◽  
Primitive Equation ◽  
State Wave ◽  
Single Jet

Abstract The effect of topography on storm-track intensity is examined with a set of primitive equation model integrations. This effect is found to be crucially dependent on the latitudinal structure of the background flow impinging on the topography. If the background flow consists of a weak double jet, higher topography leads to an intensification of the storm track downstream of the topography, consistent with enhanced baroclinicity in that region. However, if the background flow consists of a strong single jet, topography weakens the storm track, despite the fact that the baroclinicity downstream of the topography is again enhanced. The different topographic impact results from the different wave packets in the two background flows. For a weak double-jet state, wave packets tend to radiate equatorward and storm-track eddies grow primarily at the expense of local baroclinicity. In contrast, for a strong single-jet state, wave packets persistently propagate in the zonal direction and storm tracks are affected not only by local baroclinicity but also by far-upstream disturbances via downstream development. It is the reduction of the latter by the topography that leads to weaker storm tracks in a strong single-jet state. The implications of these findings for Northern Hemisphere storm tracks are also discussed.

scholarly journals A study into the effect of the diurnal tide on the structure of the background mesosphere and thermosphere using the new coupled middle atmosphere and thermosphere (CMAT) general circulation model

2002 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 225-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Harris ◽  
N. F. Arnold ◽  
A. D. Aylward
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Atomic Oxygen ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Lower Thermosphere ◽  
Lower Boundary ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Diurnal Tide ◽  
Temperature Structure ◽  
The Mean

Abstract. A new coupled middle atmosphere and thermosphere general circulation model has been developed, and some first results are presented. An investigation into the effects of the diurnal tide upon the mean composition, dynamics and energetics was carried out for equinox conditions. Previous studies have shown that tides deplete mean atomic oxygen in the upper mesosphere-lower thermosphere due to an increased recombination in the tidal displaced air parcels. The model runs presented suggest that the mean residual circulation associated with the tidal dissipation also plays an important role. Stronger lower boundary tidal forcing was seen to increase the equatorial local diurnal maximum of atomic oxygen and the associated 0(1S) 557.7 nm green line volume emission rates. The changes in the mean background temperature structure were found to correspond to changes in the mean circulation and exothermic chemical heating.Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (middle atmosphere – composition and chemistry) Meterology and atmospheric dynamics (middle atmosphere dynamics; waves and tides)

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