scholarly journals Necessary Conditions for Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification as Derived from 11 Years of TRMM Data

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (17) ◽  
pp. 6459-6470 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haiyan Jiang ◽  
Ellen M. Ramirez
Keyword(s):  
Brightness Temperature ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Necessary Conditions ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Minimum Threshold ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Total Lightning

Abstract Rainfall and convective properties of tropical cyclones (TCs) are statistically quantified for different TC intensity change categories by using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data from December 1997 to December 2008. Four 24-h future intensity change categories are defined: rapidly intensifying (RI), slowly intensifying, neutral, and weakening. It is found that RI storms always have a larger raining area and total volumetric rain in the inner core. The maximum convective intensity in the inner core is not necessarily more intense prior to undergoing an RI episode than a slowly intensifying, neutral, or weakening episode. Instead, a minimum threshold of raining area, total volumetric rain, and convective intensity in the inner core is determined from the RI cases examined in this study. The following necessary conditions for RI are found in the inner core: total raining area > 3000 km2, total volumetric rain > 5000 mm h−1 km2, maximum near-surface radar reflectivity > 40 dBZ, maximum 20-dBZ (40 dBZ) echo height > 8 (4) km, minimum 85-GHz polarization–corrected brightness temperature (PCT) < 235 K, and minimum 10.8-μm brightness temperature < 220 K. To the extent that these thresholds represent all RI cases, they should be of value to forecasters for ruling out RI. This study finds that total lightning activities in the inner core (outer rainband) have a negative (positive) relationship with storm intensification.

Impact of Parameterized Boundary Layer Structure on Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Forecasts in HWRF

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (4) ◽  
pp. 1413-1426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun A. Zhang ◽  
Robert F. Rogers ◽  
Vijay Tallapragada
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Layer Structure ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Boundary Layer Structure ◽  
Tangential Wind ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study evaluates the impact of the modification of the vertical eddy diffusivity (Km) in the boundary layer parameterization of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model on forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI). Composites of HWRF forecasts of Hurricanes Earl (2010) and Karl (2010) were compared for two versions of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme in HWRF. The results show that using a smaller value of Km, in better agreement with observations, improves RI forecasts. The composite-mean, inner-core structures for the two sets of runs at the time of RI onset are compared with observational, theoretical, and modeling studies of RI to determine why the runs with reduced Km are more likely to undergo RI. It is found that the forecasts with reduced Km at the RI onset have a shallower boundary layer with stronger inflow, more unstable near-surface air outside the eyewall, stronger and deeper updrafts in regions farther inward from the radius of maximum wind (RMW), and stronger boundary layer convergence closer to the storm center, although the mean storm intensity (as measured by the 10-m winds) is similar for the two groups. Finally, it is found that the departure of the maximum tangential wind from the gradient wind at the eyewall, and the inward advection of angular momentum outside the eyewall, is much larger in the forecasts with reduced Km. This study emphasizes the important role of the boundary layer structure and dynamics in TC intensity change, supporting recent studies emphasizing boundary layer spinup mechanism, and recommends further improvement to the HWRF PBL physics.

Distributions of Shallow to Very Deep Precipitation–Convection in Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (22) ◽  
pp. 8791-8824 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheng Tao ◽  
Haiyan Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Latent Heating ◽  
Precipitation Radar ◽  
Trmm Pr ◽  
Radar Echo ◽  
Trmm Precipitation

Abstract Shear-relative distributions of four types of precipitation/convection in tropical cyclones (TCs) are statistically analyzed using 14 years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) data. The dataset of 1139 TRMM PR overpasses of tropical storms through category-2 hurricanes over global TC-prone basins is divided by future 24-h intensity change. It is found that increased and widespread shallow precipitation (defined as where the 20-dBZ radar echo height <6 km) around the storm center is a first sign of rapid intensification (RI) and could be used as a predictor of the onset of RI. The contribution to total volumetric rain and latent heating from shallow and moderate precipitation (20-dBZ echo height between 6 and 10 km) in the inner core is greater in RI storms than in non-RI storms, while the opposite is true for moderately deep (20-dBZ echo height between 10 and 14 km) and very deep precipitation (20-dBZ echo height ≥14 km). The authors argue that RI is more likely triggered by the increase of shallow–moderate precipitation and the appearance of more moderately to very deep convection in the middle of RI is more likely a response or positive feedback to changes in the vortex. For RI storms, a cyclonic rotation of frequency peaks from shallow (downshear right) to moderate (downshear left) to moderately and very deep precipitation (upshear left) is found and may be an indicator of a rapidly strengthening vortex. A ring of almost 90% occurrence of total precipitation is found for storms in the middle of RI, consistent with the previous finding of the cyan and pink ring on the 37-GHz color product.

scholarly journals NASA’s Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) Investigation

2016 ◽  
Vol 97 (11) ◽  
pp. 2085-2102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott A. Braun ◽  
Paul A. Newman ◽  
Gerald M. Heymsfield
Keyword(s):  
East Coast ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
The United States ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Western Coast ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Severe Storm ◽  
Saharan Air Layer ◽  
Global Hawk

Abstract The National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) investigation was a multiyear field campaign designed to improve understanding of the physical processes that control hurricane formation and intensity change, specifically the relative roles of environmental and inner-core processes. Funded as part of NASA’s Earth Venture program, HS3 conducted 5-week campaigns during the hurricane seasons of 2012–14 using the NASA Global Hawk aircraft, along with a second Global Hawk in 2013 and a WB-57f aircraft in 2014. Flying from a base at Wallops Island, Virginia, the Global Hawk could be on station over storms for up to 18 h off the East Coast of the United States and up to about 6 h off the western coast of Africa. Over the 3 years, HS3 flew 21 missions over nine named storms, along with flights over two nondeveloping systems and several Saharan air layer (SAL) outbreaks. This article summarizes the HS3 experiment, the missions flown, and some preliminary findings related to the rapid intensification and outflow structure of Hurricane Edouard (2014) and the interaction of Hurricane Nadine (2012) with the SAL.

scholarly journals Climatology of Passive Microwave Brightness Temperatures in Tropical Cyclones and their Relations to Storm Intensities as Seen by FY-3B/MWRI

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 147
Author(s):  
Bo Qian ◽  
Haiyan Jiang ◽  
Fuzhong Weng ◽  
Ying Wu
Keyword(s):  
Brightness Temperature ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Radial Distance ◽  
Estimation Algorithm ◽  
Passive Microwave ◽  
Intensity Estimation ◽  
Brightness Temperatures ◽  
Dependent Samples

A new database, the tropical cyclones passive microwave brightness temperature (TCsBT) database including 6273 overpasses of 503 tropical cyclones (TC) was established from 6-year (2011–2016) Fengyun-3B (FY-3B) Microwave Radiation Imager (MWRI) Level-1 brightness temperature (TB) data and TC best-track data. An algorithm to estimate the TC intensity is developed using MWRI TB’s from the database. The relationship between microwave TB and the maximum sustained surface wind (Vmax) of TCs is derived from the TCsBT database. A high correlation coefficient between MWRI channel TB and Vmax is found at the radial distance 50–100 km near the TC inner core. Brightness temperatures at 10.65, 18.70, 23.8, and 36.5 GHz increase but 89 GHz TB’s and polarization corrected TB at 36.5 GHz (PCT36.50) and PCT89 decrease with increasing TC intensity. The TCsBT database is further separated into the 5063 dependent samples (2010–2015) for the development of the TC intensity estimation algorithm and 1210 independent samples (2016) for algorithm verification. The stepwise regression method is used to select the optimal combination of storm intensity estimation variables from 12 candidate variables and four parameters (10.65h, 23.80v, 89.00v and PCT36.50) were selected for multiple regression models development. Among the four predictors, PCT36.50 contributes the most in estimating TC intensity. In addition, the errors are lower for estimating 6-h and 12-h future Vmax than estimating the current Vmax.

scholarly journals Precipitation Clouds Delineation Scheme in Tropical Cyclones and Its Validation Using Precipitation and Cloud Parameter Datasets from TRMM

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 821-836 ◽  
Author(s):  
FengJiao Chen ◽  
ShaoXue Sheng ◽  
ZhengQing Bao ◽  
HuaYang Wen ◽  
LianSheng Hua ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Cloud Parameters ◽  
Infrared Measurements ◽  
Trmm Precipitation ◽  
Cloud Parameter ◽  
Probability Of Precipitation

AbstractUtilizing the cloud parameters derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible and Infrared Scanner and the near-surface rainfall detected by the TRMM Precipitation Radar, the differences of cloud parameters for precipitating clouds (PCs) and nonprecipitating clouds (NPCs) are examined in tropical cyclones (TCs) during daytime from June to September 1998–2010. A precipitation delineation scheme that is based on cloud parameter thresholds is proposed and validated using the independent TC datasets in 2011 and observational datasets from Terra/MODIS. Statistical analysis of these results shows that the differences in the effective radius of cloud particles Re are small for PCs and NPCs, while thick clouds with large cloud optical thickness (COT) and liquid water path (LWP) can be considered as candidates for PCs. The probability of precipitation increases rapidly as the LWP and COT increase, reaching ~90%, whereas the probability of precipitation reaches a peak value of only 30% as Re increases. The combined threshold of a brightness temperature at 10.8 μm (BT4) of 270 K and an LWP of 750 g m−2 shows the best performance for precipitation discrimination at the pixel levels, with the probability of detection (POD) reaching 68.2% and false-alarm ratio (FAR) reaching 31.54%. From MODIS observations, the composite scheme utilizing BT4 and LWP also proves to be a good index, with POD reaching 77.39% and FAR reaching 24.2%. The results from this study demonstrate a potential application of real-time precipitation monitoring in TCs utilizing cloud parameters from visible and infrared measurements on board geostationary weather satellites.

The Impact of Outer-Core Surface Heat Fluxes on the Convective Activities and Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (11) ◽  
pp. 3907-3927
Author(s):  
Chin-Hsuan Peng ◽  
Chun-Chieh Wu
Keyword(s):  
Inner Core ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Outer Core ◽  
Surface Heat ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Core Surface ◽  
Surface Heat Fluxes ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe rapid intensification (RI) of Typhoon Soudelor (2015) is simulated using a full-physics model. To investigate how the outer-core surface heat fluxes affect tropical cyclone (TC) structure and RI processes, a series of numerical experiments are performed by suppressing surface heat fluxes between various radii. It is found that a TC would become quite weaker when the surface heat fluxes are suppressed outside the radius of 60 or 90 km [the radius of maximum surface wind in the control experiment (CTRL) at the onset of RI is roughly 60 km]. However, interestingly, the TC would experience stronger RI when the surface heat fluxes are suppressed outside the radius of 150 km. For those sensitivity experiments with capped surface heat fluxes, the members with greater intensification rate show stronger inner-core mid- to upper-level updrafts and higher heating efficiency prior to the RI periods. Although the outer-core surface heat fluxes in these members are suppressed, the inner-core winds become stronger, extracting more ocean energy from the inner core. Greater outer-core low-level stability in these members results in aggregation of deep convection and subsequent generation and concentration of potential vorticity inside the inner core, thus confining the strongest winds therein. The abovementioned findings are also supported by partial-correlation analyses, which reveal the positive correlation between the inner-core convection and subsequent 6-h intensity change, and the competition between the inner-core and outer-core convections (i.e., eyewall and outer rainbands).

An Electrical and Polarimetric Analysis of the Overland Reintensification of Tropical Storm Erin (2007)

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (6) ◽  
pp. 2321-2344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erica M. Griffin ◽  
Terry J. Schuur ◽  
Donald R. MacGorman ◽  
Matthew R. Kumjian ◽  
Alexandre O. Fierro
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Tropical Storm ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Core Convection ◽  
Lightning Detection ◽  
Mapping Array ◽  
Total Lightning ◽  
Abundant Data

Abstract While passing over central Oklahoma on 18–19 August 2007, the remnants of Tropical Storm Erin unexpectedly reintensified and developed an eyelike feature that was clearly discernable in Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) imagery. During this brief reintensification period, Erin traversed a region of dense surface and remote sensing observation networks that provided abundant data of high spatial and temporal resolution. This study analyzes data from the polarimetric KOUN S-band radar, total lightning data from the Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array, and ground-flash lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network. Erin’s reintensification was atypical since it occurred well inland and was accompanied by stronger maximum sustained winds and gusts (25 and 37 m s−1, respectively) and lower minimum sea level pressure (1001.3 hPa) than while over water. Radar observations reveal several similarities to those documented in mature tropical cyclones over open water, including outward-sloping eyewall convection, near 0-dBZ reflectivities within the eye, and relatively large updraft velocities in the eyewall as inferred from single-Doppler winds and ZDR columns. Deep, electrified convection near the center of circulation preceded the formation of Erin’s eye, with maximum lightning activity occurring prior to and during reintensification. The results show that inner-core convection may have played a role in the reinvigoration of the storm.

Numerical Study on the Extremely Rapid Intensification of an Intense Tropical Cyclone: Typhoon Ida (1958)

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (11) ◽  
pp. 4194-4217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sachie Kanada ◽  
Akiyoshi Wada
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Leading Edge ◽  
Central Pressure ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Warm Core ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract Extremely rapid intensification (ERI) of Typhoon Ida (1958) was examined with a 2-km-mesh nonhydrostatic model initiated at three different times. Ida was an extremely intense tropical cyclone with a minimum central pressure of 877 hPa. The maximum central pressure drop in 24 h exceeded 90 hPa. ERI was successfully simulated in two of the three experiments. A factor crucial to simulating ERI was a combination of shallow-to-moderate convection and tall, upright convective bursts (CBs). Under a strong environmental vertical wind shear (>10 m s−1), shallow-to-moderate convection on the downshear side that occurred around the intense near-surface inflow moistened the inner-core area. Meanwhile, dry subsiding flows on the upshear side helped intensification of midlevel (8 km) inertial stability. First, a midlevel warm core appeared below 10 km in the shallow-to-moderate convection areas, being followed by the development of the upper-level warm core associated with tall convection. When tall, upright, rotating CBs formed from the leading edge of the intense near-surface inflow, ERI was triggered at the area in which the air became warm and humid. CBs penetrated into the upper troposphere, aligning the areas with high vertical vorticity at low to midlevels. The upper-level warm core developed rapidly in combination with the midlevel warm core. Under the preconditioned environment, the formation of the upright CBs inside the radius of maximum wind speeds led to an upright axis of the secondary circulation within high inertial stability, resulting in a very rapid central pressure deepening.

scholarly journals Reassessing the Use of Inner-Core Hot Towers to Predict Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification*

2015 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 1265-1279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-Yong Zhuge ◽  
Jie Ming ◽  
Yuan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Prediction Scheme ◽  
Skill Scores

Abstract The hot tower (HT) in the inner core plays an important role in tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI). With the help of Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data and the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme dataset, the potential of HTs in operational RI prediction is reassessed in this study. The stand-alone HT-based RI prediction scheme showed little skill in the northern Atlantic (NA) and eastern and central Pacific (ECP), but yielded skill scores of >0.3 in the southern Indian Ocean (SI) and western North Pacific (WNP) basins. The inaccurate predictions are due to four scenarios: 1) RI events may have already begun prior to the TRMM overpass. 2) RI events are driven by non-HT factors. 3) The HT has already dissipated or has not occurred at the TRMM overpass time. 4) Large false alarms result from the unfavorable environment. When the HT was used in conjunction with the TC’s previous 12-h intensity change, the potential intensity, the percentage area from 50 to 200 km of cloud-top brightness temperatures lower than −10°C, and the 850–200-hPa vertical shear magnitude with the vortex removed, the predictive skill score in the SI was 0.56. This score was comparable to that of the RI index scheme, which is considered the most advanced RI prediction method. When the HT information was combined with the aforementioned four environmental factors in the NA, ECP, South Pacific, and WNP, the skill scores were 0.23, 0.32, 0.42, and 0.42, respectively.

scholarly journals Horizontal Transition of Turbulent Cascade in the Near-Surface Layer of Tropical Cyclones

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (12) ◽  
pp. 4915-4925 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Tang ◽  
David Byrne ◽  
Jun A. Zhang ◽  
Yuan Wang ◽  
Xiao-tu Lei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Layer ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Outer Core ◽  
Core Region ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Sources And Sinks ◽  
Available Energy ◽  
Energy Transportation ◽  
Turbulent Cascade

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TC) consist of a large range of interacting scales from hundreds of kilometers to a few meters. The energy transportation among these different scales—that is, from smaller to larger scales (upscale) or vice versa (downscale)—may have profound impacts on TC energy dynamics as a result of the associated changes in available energy sources and sinks. From multilayer tower measurements in the low-level (<120 m) boundary layer of several landing TCs, the authors found there are two distinct regions where the energy flux changes from upscale to downscale as a function of distance to the storm center. The boundary between these two regions is approximately 1.5 times the radius of maximum wind. Two-dimensional turbulence (upscale cascade) occurs more typically at regions close to the inner-core region of TCs, while 3D turbulence (downscale cascade) mostly occurs at the outer-core region in the surface layer.

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