scholarly journals Contributions of Different Cloud Types to Feedbacks and Rapid Adjustments in CMIP5*

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (14) ◽  
pp. 5007-5027 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark D. Zelinka ◽  
Stephen A. Klein ◽  
Karl E. Taylor ◽  
Timothy Andrews ◽  
Mark J. Webb ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Optical Depth ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Cloud Amount ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Cloud Feedback ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Rapid Reduction ◽  
Cloud Feedbacks ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

Abstract Using five climate model simulations of the response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2, the authors perform the first simultaneous model intercomparison of cloud feedbacks and rapid radiative adjustments with cloud masking effects removed, partitioned among changes in cloud types and gross cloud properties. Upon CO2 quadrupling, clouds exhibit a rapid reduction in fractional coverage, cloud-top pressure, and optical depth, with each contributing equally to a 1.1 W m−2 net cloud radiative adjustment, primarily from shortwave radiation. Rapid reductions in midlevel clouds and optically thick clouds are important in reducing planetary albedo in every model. As the planet warms, clouds become fewer, higher, and thicker, and global mean net cloud feedback is positive in all but one model and results primarily from increased trapping of longwave radiation. As was true for earlier models, high cloud changes are the largest contributor to intermodel spread in longwave and shortwave cloud feedbacks, but low cloud changes are the largest contributor to the mean and spread in net cloud feedback. The importance of the negative optical depth feedback relative to the amount feedback at high latitudes is even more marked than in earlier models. The authors show that the negative longwave cloud adjustment inferred in previous studies is primarily caused by a 1.3 W m−2 cloud masking of CO2 forcing. Properly accounting for cloud masking increases net cloud feedback by 0.3 W m−2 K−1, whereas accounting for rapid adjustments reduces by 0.14 W m−2 K−1 the ensemble mean net cloud feedback through a combination of smaller positive cloud amount and altitude feedbacks and larger negative optical depth feedbacks.

Computing and Partitioning Cloud Feedbacks Using Cloud Property Histograms. Part II: Attribution to Changes in Cloud Amount, Altitude, and Optical Depth

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (11) ◽  
pp. 3736-3754 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark D. Zelinka ◽  
Stephen A. Klein ◽  
Dennis L. Hartmann
Keyword(s):  
Optical Depth ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Cloud Amount ◽  
Cloud Feedback ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Positive Contribution ◽  
Total Cloud Amount ◽  
Cloud Feedbacks

Cloud radiative kernels and histograms of cloud fraction, both as functions of cloud-top pressure and optical depth, are used to quantify cloud amount, altitude, and optical depth feedbacks. The analysis is applied to doubled-CO2 simulations from 11 global climate models in the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project. Global, annual, and ensemble mean longwave (LW) and shortwave (SW) cloud feedbacks are positive, with the latter nearly twice as large as the former. The robust increase in cloud-top altitude in both the tropics and extratropics is the dominant contributor to the positive LW cloud feedback. The negative impact of reductions in cloud amount offsets more than half of the positive impact of rising clouds on LW cloud feedback, but the magnitude of compensation varies considerably across the models. In contrast, robust reductions in cloud amount make a large and virtually unopposed positive contribution to SW cloud feedback, though the intermodel spread is greater than for any other individual feedback component. Overall reductions in cloud amount have twice as large an impact on SW fluxes as on LW fluxes, such that the net cloud amount feedback is moderately positive, with no models exhibiting a negative value. As a consequence of large but partially offsetting effects of cloud amount reductions on LW and SW feedbacks, both the mean and intermodel spread in net cloud amount feedback are smaller than those of the net cloud altitude feedback. Finally, the study finds that the large negative cloud feedback at high latitudes results from robust increases in cloud optical depth, not from increases in total cloud amount as is commonly assumed.

Future changes in heatwaves over Africa at the convection-permitting scale

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cathryn Birch ◽  
Lawrence Jackson ◽  
Declan Finney ◽  
John Marsham ◽  
Rachel Stratton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Driving Mechanisms ◽  
The Future ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
The Impact

<p>Mean temperatures and their extremes have increased over Africa since the latter half of the 20th century and this trend is projected to continue, with very frequent, intense and often deadly heatwaves likely to occur very regularly over much of Africa by 2100. It is crucial that we understand the scale of the future increases in extremes and the driving mechanisms. We diagnose daily maximum wet bulb temperature heatwaves, which allows for both the impact of temperature and humidity, both critical for human health and survivability. During wet bulb heatwaves, humidity and cloud cover increase, which limits the surface shortwave radiation flux but increases longwave warming. It is found from observations and ERA5 reanalysis that approximately 30% of wet bulb heatwaves over Africa are associated with daily rainfall accumulations of more than 1 mm/day on the first day of the heatwave. The first ever pan-African convection-permitting climate model simulations of present-day and RCP8.5 future climate are utilised to illustrate the projected future change in heatwaves, their drivers and their sensitivity to the representation of convection. Compared to ERA5, the convection-permitting model better represents the frequency and magnitude of present-day wet bulb heatwaves than a version of the model with more traditional parameterised convection. The future change in heatwave frequency, duration and magnitude is also larger in the convective-scale simulation, suggesting CMIP-style models may underestimate the future change in wet bulb heat extremes over Africa. The main reason for the larger future change appears to be the ability of the model to produce larger anomalies relative to its climatology in precipitation, cloud and the surface energy balance.</p>

How do polar clouds and precipitation affect global warming?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer Kay
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Research Problem ◽  
Cloud Feedback ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Unsolved Research Problem ◽  
Cloud Feedbacks ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Polar Clouds ◽  
Radiative Feedbacks

<p>Understanding the influence of clouds and precipitation on global warming remains an important unsolved research problem. This talk presents an overview of this topic, with a focus on recent observations, theory, and modeling results for polar clouds. After a general introduction, experiments that disable cloud radiative feedbacks or “lock the clouds” within a state‐of‐the‐art,  well‐documented, and observationally vetted climate model will be presented. Through comparison of idealized greenhouse warming experiments with and without cloud locking, the sign and magnitude cloud feedbacks can be quantified. Global cloud feedbacks increase both global and Arctic warming by around 25%. In contrast, disabling Arctic cloud feedbacks has a negligible influence on both Arctic and global surface warming. Do observations and theory support a positive global cloud feedback and a weak Arctic cloud feedback?  How does precipitation affect polar cloud feedbacks? What are the implications especially for climate change in polar regions?  </p>

Diagnosing Cloud Feedbacks in General Circulation Models

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
pp. 2602-2622 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping Zhu ◽  
James J. Hack ◽  
Jeffrey T. Kiehl
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Cloud Amount ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Cloud Feedback ◽  
Radiative Fluxes ◽  
Cloud Feedbacks ◽  
Flux Change ◽  
Gfdl Model ◽  
The Individual

Abstract In this study, it is shown that the NCAR and GFDL GCMs exhibit a marked difference in climate sensitivity of clouds and radiative fluxes in response to doubled CO2 and ±2-K SST perturbations. The GFDL model predicted a substantial decrease in cloud amount and an increase in cloud condensate in the warmer climate, but produced a much weaker change in net cloud radiative forcing (CRF) than the NCAR model. Using a multiple linear regression (MLR) method, the full-sky radiative flux change at the top of the atmosphere was successfully decomposed into individual components associated with the clear sky and different types of clouds. The authors specifically examined the cloud feedbacks due to the cloud amount and cloud condensate changes involving low, mid-, and high clouds between 60°S and 60°N. It was found that the NCAR and GFDL models predicted the same sign of individual longwave and shortwave feedbacks resulting from the change in cloud amount and cloud condensate for all three types of clouds (low, mid, and high) despite the different cloud and radiation schemes used in the models. However, since the individual longwave and shortwave feedbacks resulting from the change in cloud amount and cloud condensate generally have the opposite signs, the net cloud feedback is a subtle residual of all. Strong cancellations between individual cloud feedbacks may result in a weak net cloud feedback. This result is consistent with the findings of the previous studies, which used different approaches to diagnose cloud feedbacks. This study indicates that the proposed MLR approach provides an easy way to efficiently expose the similarity and discrepancy of individual cloud feedback processes between GCMs, which are hidden in the total cloud feedback measured by CRF. Most importantly, this method has the potential to be applied to satellite measurements. Thus, it may serve as a reliable and efficient method to investigate cloud feedback mechanisms on short-term scales by comparing simulations with available observations, which may provide a useful way to identify the cause for the wide spread of cloud feedbacks in GCMs.

scholarly journals Trends in surface radiation and cloud radiative effect at four Swiss sites for the 1996–2015 period

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (20) ◽  
pp. 13227-13241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Nyeki ◽  
Stefan Wacker ◽  
Christine Aebi ◽  
Julian Gröbner ◽  
Giovanni Martucci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Ground Temperature ◽  
Surface Radiation ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Radiative Effect ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Cloud Radiative Effect ◽  
Downward Longwave Radiation ◽  
Integrated Water Vapour

Abstract. The trends of meteorological parameters and surface downward shortwave radiation (DSR) and downward longwave radiation (DLR) were analysed at four stations (between 370 and 3580 m a.s.l.) in Switzerland for the 1996–2015 period. Ground temperature, specific humidity, and atmospheric integrated water vapour (IWV) trends were positive during all-sky and cloud-free conditions. All-sky DSR and DLR trends were in the ranges of 0.6–4.3 W m−2 decade−1 and 0.9–4.3 W m−2 decade−1, respectively, while corresponding cloud-free trends were −2.9–3.3 W m−2 decade−1 and 2.9–5.4 W m−2 decade−1. Most trends were significant at the 90 % and 95 % confidence levels. The cloud radiative effect (CRE) was determined using radiative-transfer calculations for cloud-free DSR and an empirical scheme for cloud-free DLR. The CRE decreased in magnitude by 0.9–3.1 W m−2 decade−1 (only one trend significant at 90 % confidence level), which implies a change in macrophysical and/or microphysical cloud properties. Between 10 % and 70 % of the increase in DLR is explained by factors other than ground temperature and IWV. A more detailed, long-term quantification of cloud changes is crucial and will be possible in the future, as cloud cameras have been measuring reliably at two of the four stations since 2013.

scholarly journals The importance of mixed-phase and ice clouds for climate sensitivity in the global aerosol–climate model ECHAM6-HAM2

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 8807-8828 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrike Lohmann ◽  
David Neubauer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Liquid Water ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Supercooled Liquid ◽  
Cloud Feedback ◽  
Mixed Phase ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Ice Clouds ◽  
Cloud Optical Depth ◽  
Mixed Phase Clouds

Abstract. How clouds change in a warmer climate remains one of the largest uncertainties for the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). While a large spread in the cloud feedback arises from low-level clouds, it was recently shown that mixed-phase clouds are also important for ECS. If mixed-phase clouds in the current climate contain too few supercooled cloud droplets, too much ice will change to liquid water in a warmer climate. As shown by Tan et al. (2016), this overestimates the negative cloud-phase feedback and underestimates ECS in the CAM global climate model (GCM). Here we use the newest version of the ECHAM6-HAM2 GCM to investigate the importance of mixed-phase and ice clouds for ECS. Although we also considerably underestimate the fraction of supercooled liquid water globally in the reference version of the ECHAM6-HAM2 GCM, we do not obtain increases in ECS in simulations with more supercooled liquid water in the present-day climate, different from the findings by Tan et al. (2016). We hypothesize that it is not the global supercooled liquid water fraction that matters, but only how well low- and mid-level mixed-phase clouds with cloud-top temperatures in the mixed-phase temperature range between 0 and −35 ∘C that are not shielded by higher-lying ice clouds are simulated. These occur most frequently in midlatitudes, in particular over the Southern Ocean where they determine the amount of absorbed shortwave radiation. In ECHAM6-HAM2 the amount of absorbed shortwave radiation over the Southern Ocean is only significantly overestimated if all clouds below 0 ∘C consist exclusively of ice. Only in this simulation is ECS significantly smaller than in all other simulations and the cloud optical depth feedback is the dominant cloud feedback. In all other simulations, the cloud optical depth feedback is weak and changes in cloud feedbacks associated with cloud amount and cloud-top pressure dominate the overall cloud feedback. However, apart from the simulation with only ice below 0 ∘C, differences in the overall cloud feedback are not translated into differences in ECS in our model. This insensitivity to the cloud feedback in our model is explained with compensating effects in the clear sky.

A climatology of dust episodes in the broader Mediterranean Basin using satellite MODIS C6.1 and OMI OMAERUV data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikos Hatzianastassiou ◽  
Maria Gavrouzou ◽  
Antonis Gkikas ◽  
Nikos Mihalopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Optical Depth ◽  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Dust Transport ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Mediterranean Basin

<p>Aerosols, due to their interaction primary with the shortwave, but also with the longwave radiation, constitute a significant climate component, and at the same time an important, but still uncertain, factor of the contemporary climatic change. Apart from radiation, aerosols also interact with clouds, acting as Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) and/or Ice Nuclei (IN), modifying the cloud optical and physical properties like cloud albedo, extent, lifetime or precipitation producing ability. Hence, it is also expected that high loads of specific aerosol types, such as desert dust, can induce even stronger effects on the above mentioned cloud properties.</p><p>More specifically, dust aerosols, which are inserted in the atmosphere mainly from the great world deserts, represent the major global aerosol component. These aerosols can remain suspended in the air and travel for several days, reaching areas far away from their sources. The Mediterranean Basin (MB), which is one of the most responsive regions to climate change, due to its location (nearby the Sahara desert in North Africa and the deserts of Middle East), is frequently affected from massive and extended dust transport. Because of the potentially significant role of these dust episodes, and their seasonal and inter-annual variability, they are worth to be studied and monitored through time.</p><p>In the present study, a modified version of a satellite algorithm, which is fully described by Gavrouzou et al. in another study of this conference, is used for the determination of strong and extreme dust episodes in the Mediterranean Basin over the period 2005-2018. The algorithm, using MODIS C6.1 spectral Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and OMI OMAERUV Aerosol Index (AI) as input data, ran on a daily and an 1°x1° pixel level basis and determined the occurrence and intensity of dust episodes whenever the AI is greater than 1 and the Angstrom Exponent (AE), which is calculated from spectral AOD data, is lower than 0.4. Any day is characterized as an episodic one when the dust optical depth (DOD) exceeds a computed threshold value (mean value plus two or four standard deviations for strong and extreme episodes, respectively) on at least 30 pixels of the study area. According to the algorithm results, 148 dust episode days (104 strong and 44 extreme) are found during the 2005-2018 period in the Mediterranean Basin. Most of the episodes occur in July (27 strong- and 3 extreme-episode days) and April (25 strong- and 6 extreme-episode days) while dust episodes are not detected at all in November and December. It is also found that in April, March and May take place the highest number of extreme MB episodes (23 out of the total 44 ones).</p>

Influence of the Laurentian Great Lakes on Regional Climate*

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 789-804 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Notaro ◽  
Kathleen Holman ◽  
Azar Zarrin ◽  
Elody Fluck ◽  
Steve Vavrus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Great Lakes ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Cloud Amount ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
Laurentian Great Lakes ◽  
Theoretical Physics ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Near Surface

Abstract The influence of the Laurentian Great Lakes on climate is assessed by comparing two decade-long simulations, with the lakes either included or excluded, using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model, version 4. The Great Lakes dampen the variability in near-surface air temperature across the surrounding region while reducing the amplitude of the diurnal cycle and annual cycle of air temperature. The impacts of the Great Lakes on the regional surface energy budget include an increase (decrease) in turbulent fluxes during the cold (warm) season and an increase in surface downward shortwave radiation flux during summer due to diminished atmospheric moisture and convective cloud amount. Changes in the hydrologic budget due to the presence of the Great Lakes include increases in evaporation and precipitation during October–March and decreases during May–August, along with springtime reductions in snowmelt-related runoff. Circulation responses consist of a regionwide decrease in sea level pressure in autumn–winter and an increase in summer, with enhanced ascent and descent in the two seasons, respectively. The most pronounced simulated impact of the Great Lakes on synoptic systems traversing the basin is a weakening of cold-season anticyclones.

Observed Southern Ocean Cloud Properties and Shortwave Reflection. Part II: Phase Changes and Low Cloud Feedback*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (23) ◽  
pp. 8858-8868 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel T. McCoy ◽  
Dennis L. Hartmann ◽  
Daniel P. Grosvenor
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Optical Depth ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Phase Changes ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Cloud Optical Depth ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Low Cloud ◽  
Model Transition ◽  
Comparable Magnitude

Abstract Climate models produce an increase in cloud optical depth in midlatitudes associated with climate warming, but the magnitude of this increase and its impact on reflected solar radiation vary from model to model. Transition from ice to liquid in midlatitude clouds is thought to be one mechanism for producing increased cloud optical depth. Here observations of cloud properties are used from a suite of remote sensing instruments to estimate the effect of conversion of ice to liquid associated with warming on reflected solar radiation in the latitude band from 40° to 60°S. The calculated increase in upwelling shortwave radiation (SW↑) is found to be important and of comparable magnitude to the increase in SW↑ associated with warming-induced increases of optical depth in climate models. The region where the authors' estimate increases SW↑ extends farther equatorward than the region where optical depth increases with warming in models. This difference is likely caused by other mechanisms at work in the models but is also sensitive to the amount of ice present in climate models and its susceptibility to warming.

scholarly journals On the Usage of Spectral and Broadband Satellite Instrument Measurements to Differentiate Climate Models with Different Cloud Feedback Strengths

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (17) ◽  
pp. 6561-6574 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel R. Feldman ◽  
Daniel M. Coleman ◽  
William D. Collins
Keyword(s):  
Near Infrared ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Cloud Feedback ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Spectral Radiance ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Cloud Feedbacks ◽  
The Difference

Abstract Top-of-atmosphere radiometric signals associated with different high- and low-cloud–radiative feedbacks have been examined through the use of an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE). The OSSE simulates variations in the spectrally resolved and spectrally integrated signals that are due to a range of plausible feedbacks of the climate system when forced with CO2 concentrations that increase at 1% yr−1. This initial version of the OSSE is based on the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), and exploits the fact that CCSM3 exhibits different cloud feedback strengths for different model horizontal resolutions. In addition to the conventional broadband shortwave albedos and outgoing longwave fluxes, a dataset of shortwave spectral reflectance and longwave spectral radiance has been created. These data have been analyzed to determine simulated satellite instrument signals of poorly constrained cloud feedbacks for three plausible realizations of Earth's climate system produced by CCSM3. These data have been analyzed to estimate the observational record length of albedo, outgoing longwave radiation, shortwave reflectance, or longwave radiance required to differentiate these dissimilar Earth system realizations. Shortwave spectral measurements in visible and near-infrared water vapor overtone lines are best suited to differentiate model results, and a 33% difference in shortwave–cloud feedbacks can be detected with 20 years of continuous measurements. Nevertheless, at most latitudes and with most wavelengths, the difference detection time is more than 30 years. This suggests that observing systems of sufficiently stable calibration would be useful in addressing the contribution of low clouds to the spread of climate sensitivities currently exhibited by the models that report to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

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