scholarly journals A New Compilation of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, 1851–98*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (23) ◽  
pp. 8674-8685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Chenoweth
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
The United States ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
News Reports ◽  
The North ◽  
Hurricane Wind ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
First Time

Abstract A comprehensive new compilation of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity for the years 1851–98 is presented and compared with the second-generation North Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT2) for the same years. This new analysis is based on the retrieval of 9072 newspaper marine shipping news reports, 1260 original logbook records, 271 Maury abstract logs, 147 U.S. marine meteorological journals, and 34 Met Office (UKMO) logbooks. Records from throughout North America and the Caribbean region were used along with other primary and secondary references holding unique land and marine data. For the first time, North Atlantic daily weather maps for 1864/65, 1873, and 1881–98 were used in historical tropical cyclone research. Results for the years 1851–98 include the omission of 62 of the 361 HURDAT2 storms, and the further reduction resulting from the merging of storms to a total of 288 unique HURDAT2 tropical cyclones. The new compilation gave a total of 497 tropical cyclones in the 48-yr record, or an average of 10.4 storms per year compared to 6.0 per year in HURDAT2 less the author’s omissions. Of this total, 209 storms are completely new. A total of 90 hurricanes made landfall in the United States during this time. Seven new U.S. landfalling hurricanes are present in the new dataset but not in HURDAT2. Eight U.S. landfalling hurricanes in HURDAT2 are now considered to have only tropical storm impact or were actually extratropical at landfall. Across the North Atlantic, the number of category-4 hurricanes based on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale, compared with HURDAT2, increased from 11 to 25, 6 of which made U.S. landfall at category-4 level.

scholarly journals A Reanalysis of the 1921–30 Atlantic Hurricane Database*

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 865-885 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher W. Landsea ◽  
Steve Feuer ◽  
Andrew Hagen ◽  
David A. Glenn ◽  
Jamese Sims ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
The United States ◽  
Tropical Storm ◽  
Random Errors ◽  
The North ◽  
Systematic Biases ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Average Uncertainty

Abstract A reanalysis of the Atlantic basin tropical storm and hurricane database (“best track”) for the period from 1921 to 1930 has been completed. This reassessment of the main archive for tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico was necessary to correct systematic biases and random errors in the data as well as to search for previously unrecognized systems. The methodology for the reanalysis process for revising the track and intensity of tropical cyclone data has been detailed in a previous paper on the reanalysis. The 1921–30 dataset now includes several new tropical cyclones, excludes one system previously considered a tropical storm, makes generally large alterations in the intensity estimates of most tropical cyclones (both toward stronger and weaker intensities), and typically adjusts existing tracks with minor corrections. Average uncertainty in intensity and track values is estimated for both open-ocean conditions as well as landfalling systems. Highlights are given for changes to the more significant hurricanes to impact the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean for this decade.

scholarly journals A Reanalysis of the 1911–20 Atlantic Hurricane Database

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (10) ◽  
pp. 2138-2168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher W. Landsea ◽  
David A. Glenn ◽  
William Bredemeyer ◽  
Michael Chenoweth ◽  
Ryan Ellis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
The United States ◽  
Tropical Storm ◽  
Random Errors ◽  
The North ◽  
Systematic Biases ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract A reanalysis of the Atlantic basin tropical storm and hurricane database (“best track”) for the period of 1911–20 has been completed. This reassessment of the main archive for tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico was necessary to correct systematic biases and random errors in the data as well as to search for previously unrecognized systems. A methodology for the reanalysis process for revising the track and intensity of tropical cyclone data is provided in detail. The dataset now includes several new tropical cyclones, excludes one system previously considered a tropical storm, makes generally large alterations in the intensity estimates of most tropical cyclones (both toward stronger and weaker intensities), and typically adjusts existing tracks with minor corrections. Average errors in intensity and track values are estimated for both open ocean conditions as well as for landfalling systems. Finally, highlights are given for changes to the more significant hurricanes to impact the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean for this decade.

The Spatial Pattern of the Sun-Hurricane Connection across the North Atlantic

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert E. Hodges ◽  
James B. Elsner
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Equal Area ◽  
The North ◽  
Spatial Response ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Eastern Seaboard

The authors define the spatial response of hurricanes to extremes in the solar cycle. Using an equal-area hexagon tessellation, regional hurricane counts are examined during the period 1851–2010. The response features fewer hurricanes across the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and along the eastern seaboard of the United States when sunspots are numerous. In contrast fewer hurricanes are observed in the central North Atlantic when sunspots are few. The sun-hurricane connection is as important as the El Niño Southern Oscillation toward statistically explaining regional hurricane occurrences.

scholarly journals Multiseason Lead Forecast of the North Atlantic Power Dissipation Index (PDI) and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (11) ◽  
pp. 3631-3643 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriele Villarini ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Power Dissipation ◽  
Skill Assessment ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

Abstract By considering the intensity, duration, and frequency of tropical cyclones, the power dissipation index (PDI) and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) are concise metrics routinely used to assess tropical storm activity. This study focuses on the development of a hybrid statistical–dynamical seasonal forecasting system for the North Atlantic Ocean’s PDI and ACE over the period 1982–2011. The statistical model uses only tropical Atlantic and tropical mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to describe the variability exhibited by the observational record, reflecting the role of both local and nonlocal effects on the genesis and development of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin. SSTs are predicted using a 10-member ensemble of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1), an experimental dynamical seasonal-to-interannual prediction system. To assess prediction skill, a set of retrospective predictions is initialized for each month from November to April, over the years 1981–2011. The skill assessment indicates that it is possible to make skillful predictions of ACE and PDI starting from November of the previous year: skillful predictions of the seasonally integrated North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity for the coming season could be made even while the current one is still under way. Probabilistic predictions for the 2012 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season are presented.

Observational Evidence for Oceanic Controls on Hurricane Intensity

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 1138-1153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian D. Lloyd ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Translation Speed ◽  
Ocean Stratification ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
The North ◽  
Sst Cooling ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The influence of oceanic changes on tropical cyclone activity is investigated using observational estimates of sea surface temperature (SST), air–sea fluxes, and ocean subsurface thermal structure during the period 1998–2007. SST conditions are examined before, during, and after the passage of tropical cyclones, through Lagrangian composites along cyclone tracks across all ocean basins, with particular focus on the North Atlantic. The influence of translation speed is explored by separating tropical cyclones according to the translation speed divided by the Coriolis parameter. On average for tropical cyclones up to category 2, SST cooling becomes larger as cyclone intensity increases, peaking at 1.8 K in the North Atlantic. Beyond category 2 hurricanes, however, the cooling no longer follows an increasing monotonic relationship with intensity. In the North Atlantic, the cooling for stronger hurricanes decreases, while in other ocean basins the cyclone-induced cooling does not significantly differ from category 2 to category 5 tropical cyclones, with the exception of the South Pacific. Since the SST response is nonmonotonic, with stronger cyclones producing more cooling up to category 2, but producing less or approximately equal cooling for categories 3–5, the observations indicate that oceanic feedbacks can inhibit intensification of cyclones. This result implies that large-scale oceanic conditions are a control on tropical cyclone intensity, since they control oceanic sensitivity to atmospheric forcing. Ocean subsurface thermal data provide additional support for this dependence, showing weaker upper-ocean stratification for stronger tropical cyclones. Intensification is suppressed by strong ocean stratification since it favors large SST cooling, but the ability of tropical cyclones to intensify is less inhibited when stratification is weak and cyclone-induced SST cooling is small. Thus, after accounting for tropical cyclone translation speeds and latitudes, it is argued that reduced cooling under extreme tropical cyclones is the manifestation of the impact of oceanic conditions on the ability of tropical cyclones to intensify.

scholarly journals Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (41) ◽  
pp. 12610-12615 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andra J. Reed ◽  
Michael E. Mann ◽  
Kerry A. Emanuel ◽  
Ning Lin ◽  
Benjamin P. Horton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
York City ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States’ Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sea level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from A.D. 850 to A.D. 2005. We compare pre-anthropogenic era (A.D. 850–1800) and anthropogenic era (A.D.1970–2005) storm surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ∼1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ∼A.D. 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500-y return period for a ∼2.25-m flood height during the pre-anthropogenic era has decreased to ∼24.4 y in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies.

scholarly journals Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes

2008 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
John A. Knaff ◽  
Thomas A. Cram ◽  
Andrea B. Schumacher ◽  
James P. Kossin ◽  
Mark DeMaria
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Linear Discriminant ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Special Algorithm ◽  
Central North Pacific

Abstract Annular hurricanes are a subset of intense tropical cyclones that have been shown in previous work to be significantly stronger, to maintain their peak intensities longer, and to weaken more slowly than average tropical cyclones. Because of these characteristics, they represent a significant forecasting challenge. This paper updates the list of annular hurricanes to encompass the years 1995–2006 in both the North Atlantic and eastern–central North Pacific tropical cyclone basins. Because annular hurricanes have a unique appearance in infrared satellite imagery, and form in a specific set of environmental conditions, an objective real-time method of identifying these hurricanes is developed. However, since the occurrence of annular hurricanes is rare (∼4% of all hurricanes), a special algorithm to detect annular hurricanes is developed that employs two steps to identify the candidates: 1) prescreening the data and 2) applying a linear discriminant analysis. This algorithm is trained using a dependent dataset (1995–2003) that includes 11 annular hurricanes. The resulting algorithm is then independently tested using datasets from the years 2004–06, which contained an additional three annular hurricanes. Results indicate that the algorithm is able to discriminate annular hurricanes from tropical cyclones with intensities greater than 84 kt (43.2 m s−1). The probability of detection or hit rate produced by this scheme is shown to be ∼96% with a false alarm rate of ∼6%, based on 1363 six-hour time periods with a tropical cyclone with an intensity greater than 84 kt (1995–2006).

scholarly journals Climate Changes of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Derived from Twentieth-Century Reanalysis

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (22) ◽  
pp. 8995-9005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruifang Wang ◽  
Liguang Wu
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
The United States ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
The North ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Twentieth Century Reanalysis

Abstract Whereas some studies linked the enhanced tropical cyclone (TC) formation in the North Atlantic basin to the ongoing global warming, other studies attributed it to the warm phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset, the present study reveals the distinctive spatial patterns associated with the influences of the AMO and global warming on TC formation in the North Atlantic basin. Two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) patterns are identified in the climate change of TC formation on time scales longer than interannual. The first pattern is associated with the AMO and its spatial pattern shows the basin-scale enhancement of TC formation during the AMO positive phase. The second pattern is associated with global warming, showing enhanced TC formation in the east tropical Atlantic (5°–20°N, 15°–40°W) and reduced TC formation from the southeast coast of the United States extending southward to the Caribbean Sea. In the warm AMO phase, the basinwide decrease in vertical wind shear and increases in midlevel relative humidity and maximum potential intensity (MPI) favor the basinwide enhancement of TC formation. Global warming suppresses TC formation from the southeast coast of the United States extending southward to the Caribbean Sea through enhancing vertical wind shear and reducing midlevel relative humidity and MPI. The enhanced TC formation in the east tropical Atlantic is due mainly to a local increase in MPI or sea surface temperature (SST), leading to a close relationship between the Atlantic SST and TC activity over the past decades.

scholarly journals Application of Artificial Neural Networks on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis Potential Index in Climate Change

2012 ◽  
Vol 29 (9) ◽  
pp. 1202-1220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zheng Ki Yip ◽  
M. K. Yau
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
The United States ◽  
First Century ◽  
The North ◽  
Potential Index ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract A methodology using artificial neural networks is presented to project twenty-first-century changes in North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) genesis potential (GP) in a five-model ensemble of global climate models. Two types of neural networks—the self-organizing maps (SOMs) and the forward-feeding back-propagating neural networks (FBNNs)—were employed. This methodology is demonstrated to be a robust alternative to using GCM output directly for tropical cyclone projections, which generally require high-resolution simulations. By attributing the projected changes to the related environmental variables, Emanuel’s revised genesis potential index is used to measure the GP. Changes are identified in the first (P1) and second (P2) half of the twenty-first century. The early and late summer GP decreases in both the P1 and P2 periods over most of the eastern half of the basin and increases off the East Coast of the United States and the north coast of Venezuela during P1. The peak summer GP over the region of frequent TC genesis is projected to decrease more substantially in P1 than in P2. Vertical wind shear (850–200 hPa), temperature (600 hPa), and potential intensity are the most important controls of TC genesis in the North Atlantic basin (NAB) under the changing climate.

scholarly journals El Restablecimiento de Relaciones Diplomáticas entre Cuba y Estados Unidos: posibilidades para el Caribe de la CARICOM

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 28
Author(s):  
Jacqueline Laguardia Martínez
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Diplomatic Relations ◽  
Cuban American ◽  
Caribbean Community ◽  
News Reports ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Academic Publications ◽  
The Caribbean

ResumenEl artículo examina las consecuencias que para los países del Caribe, en especial para los Estados Miembros de la Comunidad del Caribe (CARICOM), tendría el proceso de normalización de relaciones entre Cuba y los Estados Unidos iniciado el 17 de diciembre de 2014 (17D). Sin agotar todos los posibles argumentos y posibilidades, el artículo analiza algunas de las transformaciones ya producidas y sus efectos, así como también se aventura en los impactos que pueden esperarse de este proceso –aún muy reciente y de avance mesurado– para las economías del resto de la región Caribe, en especial del Caribe de la CARICOM.La investigación se basó esencialmente en la revisión bibliográfica –en su mayoría de prensa cubana, estadounidense y caribeña– para la consulta de reportes noticiosos y artículos de opinión. Se consideraron ponencias presentadas por estudiosos del tema en eventos científicos así como las discusiones producidas en estos espacios y, en menor medida, se acudió a la consulta de material académico publicado pues, dada la naturaleza del fenómeno que se analiza –aún en pleno desarrollo- los libros y artículos que evalúan los impactos del 17D más allá de lo que sucede en Cuba y los Estados Unidos son relativamente escasos. Nuestro estudio se benefició además de datos estadísticos publicados en medios cubanos y estadounidenses y en información facilitada por las Embajadas de Cuba radicadas en las dos economías líderes de la CARICOM: Jamaica y Trinidad y Tobago, principales socios comerciales de Cuba dentro del espacio CARICOM.Palabras clave: Cuba, Estados Unidos, Caribe, CARICOMO Restabelecimento das Relações Diplomáticas entre Cuba e Estados Unidos: possibilidades para o Caribe da CARICOMResumoO artigo examina as consequencias para os países do Caribe, em especial para os Estados Membros da Comunidade do Caribe (CARICOM), do processo de normalização das relações entre Cuba e os EUA, iniciado em 17 de dezembro de 2014. Sem esgotar todos os possíveis argumentos e possibilidades, o artigo analisa algumas das transformações já produzidas e seus efeitos, assim como se aventura nos impactos que podem ser esperados desse processo – ainda muito recente e de avanços comedidos – para as economias do resto da região do Caribe, em especial da CARICOM.A pesquisa se baseou essencialmente em revisão bibliográfica – em sua maioria da imprensa cubana, estadunidense e caribenha – para a consulta de reportagens e artigos de opinião. Foram consideradas apresentações de estudiosos do tema em eventos científicos assim como as discussões produzidas em estes espaços e, em menor medida, foi feita consulta de material acadêmico publicado, pois, dada a natureza do fenômeno – ainda em pleno desenvolvimento – os livros e artigos que avaliam os impactos do 17D são relativamente escassos. Nosso estudo se beneficiou dos dados estatísticos publicados nos meios cubanos e estadunidenses e em informação facilitada pelas Embaixadas de Cuba radicadas nas economias líderes da CARICOM: Jamaica e Trinidad y Tobago, principais sócios comerciais de Cuba dentro do espaço CARICOM.Palabras chave: Cuba, Estados Unidos, Caribe, CARICOMThe Re-establishment of Diplomatic Relations Between Cuba and the United States: possibilities for the states Caribbean of CARICOMAbstractThe paper examines the implications the process of normalization of relations between Cuba and the United States, initiated on December 17, 2014 (17D), would have for the Caribbean countries, especially for the members of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM). Without exhausting all possible arguments and possibilities, the paper discusses some of the changes and their effects, but also explores the expected impacts of this process on the economies of the rest of the Caribbean region, especially the Caribbean CARICOM.The research was based on literature review, taking into consideration mostly Cuban, American and Caribbean press for the consultation of news reports and articles.  The paper considered papers presented by scholars in scientific events as well as discussions produced in these spaces  and, to a lesser extent, consulted academic publications, because, given the nature of the phenomenon being analysed, books and papers assessing the impacts of 17D beyond what happens in Cuba and the United States are relatively rare. Our study also benefited from statistics published in Cuban and US media and information provided by the embassies of Cuba filed in the two leading economies of CARICOM: Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago, Cuba's main trading partners within the space of CARICOM.Keywords: Cuba, United States, Caribbean, CARICOM

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