scholarly journals Reassessing Conceptual Models of ENSO

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (23) ◽  
pp. 9121-9142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felicity S. Graham ◽  
Jaclyn N. Brown ◽  
Andrew T. Wittenberg ◽  
Neil J. Holbrook
Keyword(s):  
Wind Stress ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Conceptual Models ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Oscillator Model ◽  
Sustained Oscillation ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Enso Cycle ◽  
Thermocline Depth ◽  
Zonal Wind Stress

Abstract The complex nature of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is often simplified through the use of conceptual models, each of which offers a different perspective on the ocean–atmosphere feedbacks underpinning the ENSO cycle. One theory, the unified oscillator, combines a variety of conceptual frameworks in the form of a coupled system of delay differential equations. The system produces a self-sustained oscillation on interannual time scales. While the unified oscillator is assumed to provide a more complete conceptual framework of ENSO behaviors than the models it incorporates, its formulation and performance have not been systematically assessed. This paper investigates the accuracy of the unified oscillator through its ability to replicate the ENSO cycle modeled by flux-forced output from the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator Ocean Model (ACCESS-OM). The anomalous sea surface temperature equation reproduces the main features of the corresponding tendency modeled by ACCESS-OM reasonably well. However, the remaining equations for the thermocline depth anomaly and zonal wind stress anomalies are unable to accurately replicate the corresponding tendencies in ACCESS-OM. Modifications to the unified oscillator, including a diagnostic form of the zonal wind stress anomaly equations, improve its ability to emulate simulated ENSO tendencies. Despite these improvements, the unified oscillator model is less adept than the delayed oscillator model it incorporates in capturing ENSO behavior in ACCESS-OM, bringing into question its usefulness as a unifying ENSO framework.

scholarly journals Causes of Strengthening and Weakening of ENSO Amplitude under Global Warming in Four CMIP5 Models*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (8) ◽  
pp. 3250-3274 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Chen ◽  
Tim Li ◽  
Yongqiang Yu
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Zonal Wind Stress ◽  
Equatorial Thermocline ◽  
Change In Mean

Abstract The mechanisms for El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude change under global warming are investigated through quantitative assessment of air–sea feedback processes in present-day and future climate simulations of four models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Two models (MPI-ESM-MR and MRI-CGCM3) project strengthened ENSO amplitude, whereas the other two models (CCSM4 and FGOALS-g2) project weakened ENSO amplitude. A mixed layer heat budget diagnosis shows that the major cause of the projected ENSO amplitude difference between the two groups is attributed to the changes of the thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks. A weaker (stronger) equatorial thermocline response to a unit anomalous zonal wind stress forcing in the Niño-4 region is found in CCSM4 and FGOALS-g2 (MPI-ESM-MR and MRI-CGCM3). The cause of the different response arises from the change in the meridional scale of ENSO. A narrower (wider) meridional width of sea surface temperature (SST) and zonal wind stress anomalies causes a strengthening (weakening) of the equatorial thermocline response and thus stronger Bjerknes and zonal advective feedbacks, as the subsurface temperature and zonal current anomalies depend on the thermocline response; consequently, the ENSO amplitude increases (decreases). The change of ENSO meridional width is caused by the change in mean meridional overturning circulation in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which depends on change of mean wind stress and SST warming patterns under global warming.

An Analysis of ENSO Prediction Skill in the CFS Retrospective Forecasts

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (7) ◽  
pp. 1801-1818 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renguang Wu ◽  
Ben P. Kirtman ◽  
Huug van den Dool
Keyword(s):  
Wind Stress ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Thermocline Depth ◽  
Zonal Wind Stress ◽  
Boreal Spring ◽  
Eastern Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Western Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract The present study documents the so-called spring prediction and persistence barriers in association with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) retrospective forecasts. It is found that the spring prediction and persistence barriers in the eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) are preceded by a boreal winter barrier in the western equatorial Pacific zonal wind stress. The time of the persistence barrier is closely related to the time of the ENSO phase transition, but may differ from the time of the lowest variance. The seasonal change of the signal-to-noise ratio cannot explain the persistence barrier. While the noise may lead to a drop of skill around boreal spring in the western equatorial Pacific zonal wind stress, its impacts on the skill of eastern equatorial Pacific SST is small. The equatorial Pacific zonal winds display an excessive response to ENSO-related SST anomalies, which leads to a longer persistence in the equatorial Pacific thermocline depth anomalies and a delayed transition of the eastern equatorial Pacific SST anomalies. This provides an interpretation for the prediction skill drop in boreal spring in the eastern equatorial Pacific SST. The results suggest that improving the atmospheric model wind response to SST anomalies may reduce the spring prediction barrier.

scholarly journals Predictability Loss in an Intermediate ENSO Model due to Initial Error and Atmospheric Noise*

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (15) ◽  
pp. 3572-3588 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alicia R. Karspeck ◽  
Alexey Kaplan ◽  
Mark A. Cane
Keyword(s):  
Wind Stress ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Thermocline Depth ◽  
Error Growth ◽  
Initial Error ◽  
Ensemble Spread ◽  
Observational Error ◽  
Zonal Wind Stress

Abstract The seasonal and interannual predictability of ENSO variability in a version of the Zebiak–Cane coupled model is examined in a perturbation experiment. Instead of assuming that the model is “perfect,” it is assumed that a set of optimal initial conditions exists for the model. These states, obtained through a nonlinear minimization of the misfit between model trajectories and the observations, initiate model forecasts that correlate well with the observations. Realistic estimates of the observational error magnitudes and covariance structures of sea surface temperatures, zonal wind stress, and thermocline depth are used to generate ensembles of perturbations around these optimal initial states, and the error growth is examined. The error growth in response to subseasonal stochastic wind forcing is presented for comparison. In general, from 1975 to 2002, the large-scale uncertainty in initial conditions leads to larger error growth than continuous stochastic forcing of the zonal wind stress fields. Forecast ensemble spread is shown to depend most on the calendar month at the end of the forecast rather than the initialization month, with the seasons of greatest spread corresponding to the seasons of greatest anomaly variance. It is also demonstrated that during years with negative (and rapidly decaying) Niño-3 SST anomalies (such as the time period following an El Niño event), there is a suppression of error growth. In years with large warm ENSO events, the ensemble spread is no larger than in moderately warm years. As a result, periods with high ENSO variance have greater potential prediction utility. In the realistic range of observational error, the ensemble spread has more sensitivity to the initial error in the thermocline depth than to the sea surface temperature or wind stress errors. The thermocline depth uncertainty is the principal reason why initial condition uncertainties are more important than wind noise for ensemble spread.

scholarly journals On the fast response of the Southern Ocean to changes in the zonal wind

Ocean Science ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 417-427 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. J. Webb ◽  
B. A. de Cuevas
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Drake Passage ◽  
Fast Response ◽  
Momentum Balance ◽  
Zonal Wind Stress ◽  
Model Studies ◽  
Barotropic Flow

Abstract. Model studies of the Southern Ocean, reported here, show that the Antarctic Circumpolar Current responds within two days to changes in the zonal wind stress at the latitudes of Drake Passage. Further investigation shows that the response is primarily barotropic and that, as one might expect, it is controlled by topography. Analysis of the results show that the changes in the barotropic flow are sufficient to transfer the changed surface wind stress to the underlying topography and that during this initial phase baroclinic processes are not involved. The model results also show that the Deacon Cell responds to changes in the wind stress on the same rapid time scale. It is shown that the changes in the Deacon Cell can also be explained by the change in the barotropic velocity field, an increase in the zonal wind stress producing an increased northward flow in shallow regions and southward flow where the ocean is deep. This new explanation is unexpected as previously the Deacon Cell has been thought of as a baroclinic feature of the ocean. The results imply that where baroclinic processes do appear to be involved in either the zonal momentum balance of the Southern Ocean or the formation of the Deacon Cell, they are part of the long term baroclinic response of the ocean's density field to the changes in the barotropic flow.

scholarly journals Using Initialized Hindcasts to Assess Simulations of 1970–2009 Equatorial Pacific SST, Zonal Wind Stress, and Surface Flux Trends

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (19) ◽  
pp. 7385-7393 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Solomon
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Surface Flux ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
Cold Tongue ◽  
Zonal Wind Stress

Abstract Initialized decadal hindcasts are used to assess simulations of 1970–2009 equatorial Pacific SST, zonal wind stress, and surface flux trends. Initialized hindcasts are useful to assess how well the models simulate observed trends, as well as how simulations of observed trends (due primarily to natural variability) differ from ensemble-mean forecasted trends (due to the response to an increase in external forcing). All models forecast a statistically significant warming trend in both the warm-pool and cold-tongue regions. However, while the warm-pool warming trend is within the observed estimates, the cold-tongue warming trend is an order of magnitude larger than an ENSO residual estimated using SST instrumental reconstructions. Multimodel ensemble means formed using forecasts 6–10 years from initialization with 40 ensemble members do not produce an unambiguous zonal SST gradient response to an increase in external forcing. Systematic biases are identified in forecasts of surface fluxes. For example, in the warm-pool region all year-1 forecasts produce SST trends similar to observations but ocean mixed layer and net surface heat flux trends with an opposite sign to air–sea datasets. In addition, year-1 forecasts produce positive shortwave feedbacks on decadal time scales, whereas 6–10-yr forecasts produce negative or statistically insignificant shortwave flux feedbacks on decadal time scales, suggesting sensitivity to circulations forced by the initialized ocean state. In the cold-tongue region initialized ensembles forecast positive net radiative flux trends even though shortwave flux trends are negative (i.e., for increasing cloudiness). This is inconsistent with air–sea datasets, which uniformly show that the net surface radiative flux feedback is a damping of the underlying SSTs.

scholarly journals The Effect of Wind Stress Anomalies and Location in Driving Pacific Subtropical Cells and Tropical Climate

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 1641-1660 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giorgio Graffino ◽  
Riccardo Farneti ◽  
Fred Kucharski ◽  
Franco Molteni
Keyword(s):  
Wind Stress ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Tropical Climate ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Subsurface Water ◽  
Zonal Wind Stress ◽  
Wind Stress Anomaly ◽  
Equatorial Thermocline ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract The importance of subtropical and extratropical zonal wind stress anomalies on Pacific subtropical cell (STC) strength is assessed through several idealized and realistic numerical experiments with a global ocean model. Different zonal wind stress anomalies are employed, and their intensity is strengthened or weakened with respect to the climatological value throughout a suite of simulations. Subtropical strengthened (weakened) zonal wind stress anomalies result in increased (decreased) STC meridional mass and energy transport. When upwelling of subsurface water into the tropics is intensified (reduced), a distinct cold (warm) anomaly appears in the equatorial thermocline and up to the surface, resulting in significant tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The use of realistic wind stress anomalies also suggests a potential impact of midlatitude atmospheric modes of variability on tropical climate through STC dynamics. The remotely driven response is compared with a set of simulations where an equatorial zonal wind stress anomaly is imposed. A dynamically distinct response is achieved, whereby the equatorial thermocline adjusts to the wind stress anomaly, resulting in significant equatorial SST anomalies as in the remotely forced simulations but with no role for STCs. Significant anomalies in Indonesian Throughflow transport are generated only when equatorial wind stress anomalies are applied, leading to remarkable heat content anomalies in the Indian Ocean. Equatorial wind stress anomalies do not involve modifications of STC transport but could set up the appropriate initial conditions for a tropical–extratropical teleconnection involving Hadley cells, exciting an STC anomalous transport, which ultimately feeds back on the tropics.

scholarly journals Assessing the Twenty-First-Century Shift in ENSO Variability in Terms of the Bjerknes Stability Index*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (7) ◽  
pp. 2577-2587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joke F. Lübbecke ◽  
Michael J. McPhaden
Keyword(s):  
Wind Stress ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Stability Index ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Western Basin ◽  
Ocean Reanalysis ◽  
Zonal Wind Stress ◽  
Bj Index ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract A decadal change in the character of ENSO was observed around year 2000 toward weaker-amplitude, higher-frequency events with an increased occurrence of central Pacific El Niños. Here these changes are assessed in terms of the Bjerknes stability index (BJ index), which is a measure of the growth rate of ENSO-related SST anomalies. The individual terms of the index are calculated from ocean reanalysis products separately for the time periods 1980–99 and 2000–10. The spread between the products is large, but they show a robust weakening of the thermocline feedback due to a reduced thermocline slope response to anomalous zonal wind stress as well as a weakened wind stress response to eastern equatorial Pacific SST anomalies. These changes are consistent with changes in the background state of the tropical Pacific: cooler mean SST in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific results in reduced convection there together with a westward shift in the ascending branch of the Walker circulation. This shift leads to a weakening in the relationship between eastern Pacific SST and longitudinally averaged equatorial zonal wind stress. Also, despite a steeper mean thermocline slope in the more recent period, the thermocline slope response to wind stress anomalies weakened due to a smaller zonal wind fetch that results from ENSO-related wind anomalies being more confined to the western basin. As a result, the total BJ index is more negative, corresponding to a more strongly damped system in the past decade compared to the 1980s and 1990s.

scholarly journals Wind Stress Variations and Interannual Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 226-241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuebin Zhang ◽  
Michael J. McPhaden
Keyword(s):  
Wind Stress ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Zonal Wind Stress ◽  
Eastern Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Equatorial Wave ◽  
Stress Variations

Abstract Vertical advection of temperature is the primary mechanism by which El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) time-scale sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are generated in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Variations in vertical advection are mediated primarily by remote wind-forced thermocline displacements, which control the temperature of water upwelled to the surface. However, during some ENSO events, large wind stress variations occur in the eastern Pacific that in principle should affect local upwelling rates, the depth of the thermocline, and SST. In this study, the impact of these wind stress variations on the eastern equatorial Pacific is addressed using multiple linear regression analysis and a linear equatorial wave model. The regression analysis indicates that a zonal wind stress anomaly of 0.01 N m−2 leads to approximately a 1°C SST anomaly over the Niño-3 region (5°N–5°S, 90°–150°W) due to changes in local upwelling rates. Wind stress variations of this magnitude occurred in the eastern Pacific during the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niños, accounting for about 1/3 of the maximum SST anomaly during these events. The linear equatorial wave model also indicates that depending on the period in question, zonal wind stress variations in the eastern Pacific can work either with or against remote wind stress forcing from the central and western Pacific to determine the thermocline depth in the eastern Pacific. Thus, zonal wind stress variations in the eastern Pacific contribute to the generation of interannual SST anomalies through both changes in local upwelling rates and changes in thermocline depth. Positive feedbacks between the ocean and atmosphere in the eastern Pacific are shown to influence the evolution of the surface wind field, especially during strong El Niño events, emphasizing the coupled nature of variability in the region. Implications of these results for understanding the character of event-to-event differences in El Niño and La Niña are discussed.

scholarly journals The Modulation of ENSO Variability in CCSM3 by Extratropical Rossby Waves

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (22) ◽  
pp. 5839-5853 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shayne McGregor ◽  
Alex Sen Gupta ◽  
Neil J. Holbrook ◽  
Scott B. Power
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Interdecadal Variability ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
Thermocline Depth ◽  
Enso Variability ◽  
Enso Events

Abstract Evidence suggests that the magnitude and frequency of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) changes on interdecadal time scales. This is manifest in a distinct shift in ENSO behavior during the late 1970s. This study investigates mechanisms that may force this interdecadal variability and, in particular, on modulations driven by extratropical Rossby waves. Results from oceanic shallow-water models show that the Rossby wave theory can explain small near-zonal changes in equatorial thermocline depth that can alter the amplitude of simulated ENSO events. However, questions remain over whether the same mechanism operates in more complex coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) and what the magnitude of the resulting change would be. Experiments carried out in a state-of-the-art z-coordinate primitive equation model confirm that the Rossby wave mechanism does indeed operate. The effects of these interactions are further investigated using a partial coupling (PC) technique. This allows for the isolation of the role of wind stress–forced oceanic exchanges between the extratropics and the tropics and the subsequent modulation of ENSO variability. It is found that changes in the background state of the equatorial Pacific thermocline depth, induced by a fixed off-equatorial wind stress anomaly, can significantly affect the probability of ENSO events occurring. This confirms the results obtained from simpler models and further validates theories that rely on oceanic wave dynamics to generate Pacific Ocean interdecadal variability. This indicates that an improved predictive capability for seasonal-to-interannual ENSO variability could be achieved through a better understanding of extratropical-to-tropical Pacific Ocean transfers and western boundary processes. Furthermore, such an understanding would provide a physical basis to enhance multiyear probabilistic predictions of ENSO indices.

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