scholarly journals Intraseasonal Persistence of European Surface Temperatures

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (13) ◽  
pp. 5365-5374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik W. Kolstad ◽  
Stefan P. Sobolowski ◽  
Adam A. Scaife
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Driving Mechanisms ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

Abstract Recent periods of extreme weather in Europe, such as the cold winter of 2009/10, have caused widespread impacts and were remarkable because of their persistence. It is therefore of great interest to improve the ability to forecast such events. Weather forecasts at midlatitudes generally show low skill beyond 5–10 days, but long-range forecast skill may increase during extended tropospheric blocking episodes or perturbations of the stratospheric polar vortex, which can affect midlatitude weather for several weeks at a time. Here a simple, linear approach is used to identify previously undocumented persistence in northern European summer and winter temperature anomalies in climate model simulations, corroborated by observations and reanalysis data. For instance, temperature anomalies of at least one standard deviation above or below climatology in March were found to be about 20%–120% more likely than normal if the preceding February was anomalous by 0.5–1.5 standard deviations (with the same sign). The corresponding range for April (i.e., persistence over two months) is between 20% and 80%. The persistence is observed irrespective of the data source or driving mechanisms, and the temperature itself is a more skillful predictor of the temperatures one month ahead than the stratospheric polar vortex or the NAO and even than both factors together. The results suggest potential to conditionally improve the skill of long-range forecasts and enhance recent advancements in dynamical seasonal prediction.

scholarly journals Seasonal Prediction Skill of Northern Extratropical Surface Temperature Driven by the Stratosphere

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (12) ◽  
pp. 4463-4475 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liwei Jia ◽  
Xiaosong Yang ◽  
Gabriel Vecchi ◽  
Richard Gudgel ◽  
Thomas Delworth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Predictive Skill

This study explores the role of the stratosphere as a source of seasonal predictability of surface climate over Northern Hemisphere extratropics both in the observations and climate model predictions. A suite of numerical experiments, including climate simulations and retrospective forecasts, are set up to isolate the role of the stratosphere in seasonal predictive skill of extratropical near-surface land temperature. It is shown that most of the lead-0-month spring predictive skill of land temperature over extratropics, particularly over northern Eurasia, stems from stratospheric initialization. It is further revealed that this predictive skill of extratropical land temperature arises from skillful prediction of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The dynamical connection between the stratosphere and troposphere is also demonstrated by the significant correlation between the stratospheric polar vortex and sea level pressure anomalies, as well as the migration of the stratospheric zonal wind anomalies to the lower troposphere.

scholarly journals The impact of volcanic aerosol on the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex: mechanisms and sensitivity to forcing structure

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 16777-16819
Author(s):  
M. Toohey ◽  
K. Krüger ◽  
M. Bittner ◽  
C. Timmreck ◽  
H. Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
High Latitude ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Volcanic Aerosol ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Forcing Set

Abstract. Observations and simple theoretical arguments suggest that the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex is stronger in winters following major volcanic eruptions. However, recent studies show that climate models forced by prescribed volcanic aerosol fields fail to reproduce this effect. We investigate the impact of volcanic aerosol forcing on stratospheric dynamics, including the strength of the NH polar vortex, in ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. The model is forced by four different prescribed forcing sets representing the radiative properties of stratospheric aerosol following the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo: two forcing sets are based on observations, and are commonly used in climate model simulations, and two forcing sets are constructed based on coupled aerosol–climate model simulations. For all forcings, we find that temperature and zonal wind anomalies in the NH high latitudes are not directly impacted by anomalous volcanic aerosol heating. Instead, high latitude effects result from robust enhancements in stratospheric residual circulation, which in turn result, at least in part, from enhanced stratospheric wave activity. High latitude effects are therefore much less robust than would be expected if they were the direct result of aerosol heating. While there is significant ensemble variability in the high latitude response to each aerosol forcing set, the mean response is sensitive to the forcing set used. Significant differences, for example, are found in the NH polar stratosphere temperature and zonal wind response to two different forcing data sets constructed from different versions of SAGE II aerosol observations. Significant strengthening of the polar vortex, in rough agreement with the expected response, is achieved only using aerosol forcing extracted from prior coupled aerosol–climate model simulations. Differences in the dynamical response to the different forcing sets used imply that reproducing the polar vortex responses to past eruptions, or predicting the response to future eruptions, depends on accurate representation of the space-time structure of the volcanic aerosol forcing.

scholarly journals INVESTIGATION OF WINTER ARCTIC STRATOSPHERIC DYNAMICS IN PRESENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (6) ◽  
pp. 21-28
Author(s):  
P.N. Vargin ◽  
◽  
S.V. Коstrykin ◽  
, N.D. Tsvetkova ◽  
, A.N. Lukyanov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Mean Amplitude ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Stratospheric Dynamics ◽  
Stratospheric Clouds

. Using reanalysis data sets variability of temperature, zonal mean, amplitude-planetary waves, as well as the influence of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex changes on the circulation of troposphere from 2016 to 2021 are studied. The results of calculations of the climate model of the INM RAS CM5 for the current and future climate are used to analyze changes in the volume of air masses inside the stratospheric polar vortex with temperatures sufficient for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds necessary for the destruction of the ozone layer.

The Influence of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Troposphere in Winter in a Hierarchy of Models. Part II: Perpetual Winter WACCM Runs

2011 ◽  
Vol 68 (9) ◽  
pp. 2026-2041 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaim I. Garfinkel ◽  
Dennis L. Hartmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Thermal Wind ◽  
The North ◽  
Tropical Deep Convection ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract Experiments with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) are used to understand the influence of the stratospheric tropical quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the troposphere. The zonally symmetric circulation in thermal wind balance with the QBO affects high-frequency eddies throughout the extratropical troposphere. The influence of the QBO is strongest and most robust in the North Pacific near the jet exit region, in agreement with observations. Variability of the stratospheric polar vortex does not appear to explain the effect of the QBO in the troposphere in the model, although it does contribute to the response in the North Atlantic. Anomalies in tropical deep convection associated with the QBO appear to damp, rather than drive, the effect of the QBO in the extratropical troposphere. Rather, the crucial mechanism whereby the QBO modulates the extratropical troposphere appears to be the interaction of tropospheric transient waves with the axisymmetric circulation in thermal wind balance with the QBO. The response to QBO winds of realistic amplitude is stronger for perpetual February radiative conditions and sea surface temperatures than perpetual January conditions, consistent with the observed response in reanalysis data, in a coupled seasonal WACCM integration, and in dry model experiments described in Part I.

scholarly journals The impact of volcanic aerosol on the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex: mechanisms and sensitivity to forcing structure

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (23) ◽  
pp. 13063-13079 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Toohey ◽  
K. Krüger ◽  
M. Bittner ◽  
C. Timmreck ◽  
H. Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Volcanic Aerosol ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Observations and simple theoretical arguments suggest that the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex is stronger in winters following major volcanic eruptions. However, recent studies show that climate models forced by prescribed volcanic aerosol fields fail to reproduce this effect. We investigate the impact of volcanic aerosol forcing on stratospheric dynamics, including the strength of the NH polar vortex, in ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. The model is forced by four different prescribed forcing sets representing the radiative properties of stratospheric aerosol following the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo: two forcing sets are based on observations, and are commonly used in climate model simulations, and two forcing sets are constructed based on coupled aerosol–climate model simulations. For all forcings, we find that simulated temperature and zonal wind anomalies in the NH high latitudes are not directly impacted by anomalous volcanic aerosol heating. Instead, high-latitude effects result from enhancements in stratospheric residual circulation, which in turn result, at least in part, from enhanced stratospheric wave activity. High-latitude effects are therefore much less robust than would be expected if they were the direct result of aerosol heating. Both observation-based forcing sets result in insignificant changes in vortex strength. For the model-based forcing sets, the vortex response is found to be sensitive to the structure of the forcing, with one forcing set leading to significant strengthening of the polar vortex in rough agreement with observation-based expectations. Differences in the dynamical response to the forcing sets imply that reproducing the polar vortex responses to past eruptions, or predicting the response to future eruptions, depends on accurate representation of the space–time structure of the volcanic aerosol forcing.

The Impact of Stratospheric Ozone Changes on Downward Wave Coupling in the Southern Hemisphere*

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (16) ◽  
pp. 4210-4229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiffany A. Shaw ◽  
Judith Perlwitz ◽  
Nili Harnik ◽  
Paul A. Newman ◽  
Steven Pawson
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Coupling Model ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Wave Coupling ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of stratospheric ozone changes on downward wave coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere in the Southern Hemisphere is investigated using a suite of Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry–climate model (GEOS CCM) simulations. Downward wave coupling occurs when planetary waves reflected in the stratosphere impact the troposphere. In reanalysis data, the climatological coupling occurs from September to December when the stratospheric basic state has a well-defined high-latitude meridional waveguide in the lower stratosphere that is bounded above by a reflecting surface, called a bounded wave geometry. Reanalysis data suggests that downward wave coupling during November–December has increased during the last three decades. The GEOS CCM simulation of the recent past captures the main features of downward wave coupling in the Southern Hemisphere. Consistent with the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) dataset, wave coupling in the model maximizes during October–November when there is a bounded wave geometry configuration. However, the wave coupling in the model is stronger than in the MERRA dataset, and starts earlier and ends later in the seasonal cycle. The late season bias is caused by a bias in the timing of the stratospheric polar vortex breakup. Temporal changes in stratospheric ozone associated with past depletion and future recovery significantly impact downward wave coupling in the model. During the period of ozone depletion, the spring bounded wave geometry, which is favorable for downward wave coupling, extends into early summer, due to a delay in the vortex breakup date, and leads to increased downward wave coupling during November–December. During the period of ozone recovery, the stratospheric basic state during November–December shifts from a spring configuration back to a summer configuration, where waves are trapped in the troposphere, and leads to a decrease in downward wave coupling. Model simulations with chlorine fixed at 1960 values and increasing greenhouse gases show no significant changes in downward wave coupling and confirm that the changes in downward wave coupling in the model are caused by ozone changes. The results reveal a new mechanism wherein stratospheric ozone changes can affect the tropospheric circulation.

scholarly journals Seasonal prediction of the boreal winter stratosphere

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice Portal ◽  
Paolo Ruggieri ◽  
Froila M. Palmeiro ◽  
Javier García-Serrano ◽  
Daniela I. V. Domeisen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Eddy Heat Flux ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
Model Database

AbstractThe predictability of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere and its underlying dynamics are investigated in five state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multi-model database. Special attention is devoted to the connection between the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and lower-stratosphere wave activity (LSWA). We find that in winter (December to February) dynamical forecasts initialised on the first of November are considerably more skilful than empirical forecasts based on October anomalies. Moreover, the coupling of the SPV with mid-latitude LSWA (i.e., meridional eddy heat flux) is generally well reproduced by the forecast systems, allowing for the identification of a robust link between the predictability of wave activity above the tropopause and the SPV skill. Our results highlight the importance of November-to-February LSWA, in particular in the Eurasian sector, for forecasts of the winter stratosphere. Finally, the role of potential sources of seasonal stratospheric predictability is considered: we find that the C3S multi-model overestimates the stratospheric response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and underestimates the influence of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation (QBO).

Future changes in heatwaves over Africa at the convection-permitting scale

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cathryn Birch ◽  
Lawrence Jackson ◽  
Declan Finney ◽  
John Marsham ◽  
Rachel Stratton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Driving Mechanisms ◽  
The Future ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
The Impact

<p>Mean temperatures and their extremes have increased over Africa since the latter half of the 20th century and this trend is projected to continue, with very frequent, intense and often deadly heatwaves likely to occur very regularly over much of Africa by 2100. It is crucial that we understand the scale of the future increases in extremes and the driving mechanisms. We diagnose daily maximum wet bulb temperature heatwaves, which allows for both the impact of temperature and humidity, both critical for human health and survivability. During wet bulb heatwaves, humidity and cloud cover increase, which limits the surface shortwave radiation flux but increases longwave warming. It is found from observations and ERA5 reanalysis that approximately 30% of wet bulb heatwaves over Africa are associated with daily rainfall accumulations of more than 1 mm/day on the first day of the heatwave. The first ever pan-African convection-permitting climate model simulations of present-day and RCP8.5 future climate are utilised to illustrate the projected future change in heatwaves, their drivers and their sensitivity to the representation of convection. Compared to ERA5, the convection-permitting model better represents the frequency and magnitude of present-day wet bulb heatwaves than a version of the model with more traditional parameterised convection. The future change in heatwave frequency, duration and magnitude is also larger in the convective-scale simulation, suggesting CMIP-style models may underestimate the future change in wet bulb heat extremes over Africa. The main reason for the larger future change appears to be the ability of the model to produce larger anomalies relative to its climatology in precipitation, cloud and the surface energy balance.</p>

scholarly journals Nonstationarity in Southern Hemisphere Climate Variability Associated with the Seasonal Breakdown of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (18) ◽  
pp. 7125-7139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas J. Byrne ◽  
Theodore G. Shepherd ◽  
Tim Woollings ◽  
R. Alan Plumb
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Vortex Breakdown ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Time Symmetry

Abstract Statistical models of climate generally regard climate variability as anomalies about a climatological seasonal cycle, which are treated as a stationary stochastic process plus a long-term seasonally dependent trend. However, the climate system has deterministic aspects apart from the climatological seasonal cycle and long-term trends, and the assumption of stationary statistics is only an approximation. The variability of the Southern Hemisphere zonal-mean circulation in the period encompassing late spring and summer is an important climate phenomenon and has been the subject of numerous studies. It is shown here, using reanalysis data, that this variability is rendered highly nonstationary by the organizing influence of the seasonal breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex, which breaks time symmetry. It is argued that the zonal-mean tropospheric circulation variability during this period is best viewed as interannual variability in the transition between the springtime and summertime regimes induced by variability in the vortex breakdown. In particular, the apparent long-term poleward jet shift during the early-summer season can be more simply understood as a delay in the equatorward shift associated with this regime transition. The implications of such a perspective for various open questions are discussed.

scholarly journals Analysis of Arctic Spring Ozone Anomaly in the Phases of QBO and 11-year Solar Cycle for 1979–2011

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yousuke Yamashita ◽  
Hideharu Akiyoshi ◽  
Masaaki Takahashi
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Negative Anomaly ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Arctic ozone amount in winter to spring shows large year-to-year variation. This study investigates Arctic spring ozone in relation to the phase of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)/the 11-year solar cycle, using satellite observations, reanalysis data, and outputs of a chemistry climate model (CCM) during the period of 1979–2011. For this duration, we found that the composite mean of the Northern Hemisphere high-latitude total ozone in the QBO-westerly (QBO-W)/solar minimum (Smin) phase is slightly smaller than those averaged for the QBO-W/Smax and QBO-E/Smax years in March. An analysis of a passive ozone tracer in the CCM simulation indicates that this negative anomaly is primarily caused by transport. The negative anomaly is consistent with a weakening of the residual mean downward motion in the polar lower stratosphere. The contribution of chemical processes estimated using the column amount difference between ozone and the passive ozone tracer is between 10–20% of the total anomaly in March. The lower ozone levels in the Arctic spring during the QBO-W/Smin years are associated with a stronger Arctic polar vortex from late winter to early spring, which is linked to the reduced occurrence of sudden stratospheric warming in the winter during the QBO-W/Smin years.

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