scholarly journals The Transient and Equilibrium Climate Response to Rapid Summertime Sea Ice Loss in CCSM4

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 401-417 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell Blackport ◽  
Paul J. Kushner
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Transient Response ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact that disappearing Arctic sea ice will have on the atmospheric circulation and weather variability remains uncertain. In this study, results are presented from a sea ice perturbation experiment using the coupled Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). By decreasing the albedo of the sea ice, the impact of an ice-free summertime Arctic on the coupled ocean–atmosphere system is isolated in an idealized but energetically self-consistent way. The multicentury equilibrium response is examined, as well as the transient response in an initial condition ensemble. The perturbation drives pronounced year-round sea ice thinning, Arctic warming, Arctic amplification, and moderate global warming. Even in the almost complete absence of summertime sea ice, the atmospheric general circulation response is very weak and the transient response is small compared to the internal variability. Surface temperature variability is reduced on all time scales over most of the middle and high latitudes with a 50% reduction in the standard deviation of temperature over the Arctic Ocean. The reduction is attributed to decreased temperature gradients and increased maritime influence once the sea ice melts. This reduced variability extends weakly into the variability of the midlatitude and free tropospheric geopotential height (less than 10% reduction in the standard deviation). Consistently, eddy geopotential height variability is found to decrease while geopotential isopleth meandering, which reflects Arctic amplified warming, increases moderately. The sign of these changes is consistent with recent observations, but the size of these changes is relatively small.

scholarly journals The Impact of Regional Arctic Sea Ice Loss on Atmospheric Circulation and the NAO

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 889-902 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasmus A. Pedersen ◽  
Ivana Cvijanovic ◽  
Peter L. Langen ◽  
Bo M. Vinther
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sea Ice Reduction

Abstract Reduction of the Arctic sea ice cover can affect the atmospheric circulation and thus impact the climate beyond the Arctic. The atmospheric response may, however, vary with the geographical location of sea ice loss. The atmospheric sensitivity to the location of sea ice loss is studied using a general circulation model in a configuration that allows combination of a prescribed sea ice cover and an active mixed layer ocean. This hybrid setup makes it possible to simulate the isolated impact of sea ice loss and provides a more complete response compared to experiments with fixed sea surface temperatures. Three investigated sea ice scenarios with ice loss in different regions all exhibit substantial near-surface warming, which peaks over the area of ice loss. The maximum warming is found during winter, delayed compared to the maximum sea ice reduction. The wintertime response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation shows a nonuniform sensitivity to the location of sea ice reduction. While all three scenarios exhibit decreased zonal winds related to high-latitude geopotential height increases, the magnitudes and locations of the anomalies vary between the simulations. Investigation of the North Atlantic Oscillation reveals a high sensitivity to the location of the ice loss. The northern center of action exhibits clear shifts in response to the different sea ice reductions. Sea ice loss in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic cause westward and eastward shifts, respectively.

The impact of denying sea ice information on the predictability of atmospheric processes over the Arctic and at mid-latitude regions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leandro Ponsoni ◽  
Daniela Flocco ◽  
François Massonnet ◽  
Steve Delhaye ◽  
Ed Hawkins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Atmospheric Processes ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
The Impact

<p>In this work, we make use of an inter-model comparison and of a perfect model approach, in which model outputs are used as true reference states, to assess the impact that denying sea ice information has on the prediction of atmospheric processes, both over the Arctic and at mid-latitude regions. To do so, two long-term control runs (longer than 250 years) were generated with two state-of-the-art General Circulation Models (GCM), namely EC-Earth and HadGEM. From these two reference states, we have identified three different years in which the Arctic sea ice volume (SIV) was (i) maximum, (ii) minimum and (iii) a representative case for the mean state. By departing from each of these three dates (not necessarily the same for the two models), we generated a set of experiments in which the control runs are restarted both from original and climatological sea ice conditions. Here, climatological sea ice conditions are estimated as the time-average of sea ice parameters from the respective long-term control runs. The experiments are 1-year long and all of them start in January when ice is still thin, snow depth is small, air-ocean temperatures contrast the most and, therefore, the heat conductive flux in sea ice (at the surface) is nearly maximum. To robustly separate the response to degrading the initial sea ice state from background internal variability, each of the two counterfactual experiments (reference and climatological) consists of 50 ensembles members. Threstatedese ensembles are generated by adding small random perturbations to the sea surface temperature (EC-Earth) or to the air temperature (HadGEM) fields. Preliminary results reinforce the importance of having the right sea ice state for improving the (sub-)seasonal prediction of atmospheric parameters (e.g., 2m-temperature and geopotential) and circulation (e.g., Westerlies and Jet Stream) not only over the Arctic, but also at mid-latitude regions.</p>

scholarly journals Arctic Ocean sea ice snow depth evaluation and bias sensitivity in CCSM

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 1887-1900 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. A. Blazey ◽  
M. M. Holland ◽  
E. C. Hunke
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Snow Depth ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Blowing Snow ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Future Work ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean is a continued focus of attention. This study investigates the impact of the snow overlying the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. The impact of snow depth biases in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is shown to impact not only the sea ice, but also the overall Arctic climate. Following the identification of seasonal biases produced in CCSM simulations, the thermodynamic transfer through the snow–ice column is perturbed to determine model sensitivity to these biases. This study concludes that perturbations on the order of the observed biases result in modification of the annual mean conductive flux through the snow–ice column of 0.5 W m2 relative to an unmodified simulation. The results suggest that the ice has a complex response to snow characteristics, with ice of different thicknesses producing distinct reactions. Our results indicate the importance of an accurate simulation of snow on the Arctic sea ice. Consequently, future work investigating the impact of current precipitation biases and missing snow processes, such as blowing snow, densification, and seasonal changes, is warranted.

scholarly journals Improved Sea Ice Shortwave Radiation Physics in CCSM4: The Impact of Melt Ponds and Aerosols on Arctic Sea Ice

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 1413-1430 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marika M. Holland ◽  
David A. Bailey ◽  
Bruce P. Briegleb ◽  
Bonnie Light ◽  
Elizabeth Hunke
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Radiative Transfer ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Aerosol Deposition ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Melt Ponds ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Impact

The Community Climate System Model, version 4 has revisions across all components. For sea ice, the most notable improvements are the incorporation of a new shortwave radiative transfer scheme and the capabilities that this enables. This scheme uses inherent optical properties to define scattering and absorption characteristics of snow, ice, and included shortwave absorbers and explicitly allows for melt ponds and aerosols. The deposition and cycling of aerosols in sea ice is now included, and a new parameterization derives ponded water from the surface meltwater flux. Taken together, this provides a more sophisticated, accurate, and complete treatment of sea ice radiative transfer. In preindustrial CO2 simulations, the radiative impact of ponds and aerosols on Arctic sea ice is 1.1 W m−2 annually, with aerosols accounting for up to 8 W m−2 of enhanced June shortwave absorption in the Barents and Kara Seas and with ponds accounting for over 10 W m−2 in shelf regions in July. In double CO2 (2XCO2) simulations with the same aerosol deposition, ponds have a larger effect, whereas aerosol effects are reduced, thereby modifying the surface albedo feedback. Although the direct forcing is modest, because aerosols and ponds influence the albedo, the response is amplified. In simulations with no ponds or aerosols in sea ice, the Arctic ice is over 1 m thicker and retains more summer ice cover. Diagnosis of a twentieth-century simulation indicates an increased radiative forcing from aerosols and melt ponds, which could play a role in twentieth-century Arctic sea ice reductions. In contrast, ponds and aerosol deposition have little effect on Antarctic sea ice for all climates considered.

The Transient and Equilibrium Response of the AMOC to Arctic sea decline in a coupled model.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amelie Simon ◽  
Brady Ferster ◽  
Alexey Fedorov ◽  
Juliette Mignot ◽  
Eric Guilyardi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Impact

<p>Since the mid-20th century, the Arctic has experienced two major impacts of climate change: a warming at a faster rate than the global mean surface temperature and a reduction of both winter and summer sea ice cover. However, the impact of the Arctic sea ice loss on global climate remains under debate, in particular the impact on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Specifically, some studies find that in response to Arctic sea ice decline, the AMOC weakens on multi-decadal timescales, reaching a new equilibrium state with a significantly reduced AMOC, while others studies see a weak AMOC reduction followed by a partial or full recovery. To further investigate the impact of sea ice loss on the climate, ensemble simulations are performed with the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model CM5A2 from the Insitut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL-CM5A2). To induce the change in sea ice, the Arctic sea ice albedo is reduced by about 23%, previously shown to be consistent with the sea ice changes expected to occur by approximately the year 2040. The experimental design compares the response to sea ice loss starting from AMOC minimum and neutral phases, respectively. The objective of our experiment is to further investigate the AMOC-sea ice relationship in the transient and equilibrium responses to decreased sea ice and the robustness within a coupled model. The initial 30-year response results in similar spatial patterns in sea ice volume and 500mb potential height responses (inducing a negative NAO-like pattern) for both types of initial conditions. In both cases, the AMOC reduces by 0.5 to 1.5Sv Sv (about 15% of the model mean AMOC) during the first ~100 years of the experiment. Yet, there are differences in the response depending on the AMOC initial state, for example, in the magnitude and timing of the AMOC reduction. The AMOC eventually recover towards years 151-200. Our results give insight into the importance of decadal variability for anticipating the response of the next decades to climate change, as well as improves the understanding of the long-term transient and equilibrium responses between AMOC and Arctic sea ice.</p>

scholarly journals Recent Sea Ice Decline Did Not Significantly Increase the Total Liquid Freshwater Content of the Arctic Ocean

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang Wang ◽  
Claudia Wekerle ◽  
Sergey Danilov ◽  
Dmitry Sidorenko ◽  
Nikolay Koldunov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Decline ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Eurasian Basin ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The freshwater stored in the Arctic Ocean is an important component of the global climate system. Currently the Arctic liquid freshwater content (FWC) has reached a record high since the beginning of the last century. In this study we use numerical simulations to investigate the impact of sea ice decline on the Arctic liquid FWC and its spatial distribution. The global unstructured-mesh ocean general circulation model Finite Element Sea Ice–Ocean Model (FESOM) with 4.5-km horizontal resolution in the Arctic region is applied. The simulations show that sea ice decline increases the FWC by freshening the ocean through sea ice meltwater and modifies upper ocean circulation at the same time. The two effects together significantly increase the freshwater stored in the Amerasian basin and reduce its amount in the Eurasian basin. The salinification of the upper Eurasian basin is mainly caused by the reduction in the proportion of Pacific Water and the increase in that of Atlantic Water (AW). Consequently, the sea ice decline did not significantly contribute to the observed rapid increase in the Arctic total liquid FWC. However, the changes in the Arctic freshwater spatial distribution indicate that the influence of sea ice decline on the ocean environment is remarkable. Sea ice decline increases the amount of Barents Sea branch AW in the upper Arctic Ocean, thus reducing its supply to the deeper Arctic layers. This study suggests that all the dynamical processes sensitive to sea ice decline should be taken into account when understanding and predicting Arctic changes.

scholarly journals Cryospheric Impacts of Soviet River Diversion Schemes

1984 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 61-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Holt ◽  
P. M. Kelly ◽  
B. S. G. Cherry
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
The Impact

Soviet plans to divert water from rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean have led to research into the impact of a reduction in discharge on Arctic sea ice. We consider the mechanisms by which discharge reductions might affect sea-ice cover and then test various hypotheses related to these mechanisms. We find several large areas over which sea-ice concentration correlates significantly with variations in river discharge, supporting two particular hypotheses. The first hypothesis concerns the area where the initial impacts are likely to which is the Kara Sea. Reduced riverflow is associated occur, with decreased sea-ice concentration in October, at the time of ice formation. This is believed to be the result of decreased freshening of the surface layer. The second hypothesis concerns possible effects on the large-scale current system of the Arctic Ocean and, in particular, on the inflow of Atlantic and Pacific water. These effects occur as a result of changes in the strength of northward-flowing gradient currents associated with variations in river discharge. Although it is still not certain that substantial transfers of riverflow will take place, it is concluded that the possibility of significant cryospheric effects and, hence, large-scale climate impact should not be neglected.

scholarly journals Climate Policy Implications of Nonlinear Decline of Arctic Land Permafrost and Sea Ice

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dmitry Yumashev ◽  
Chris Hope ◽  
Kevin Schaefer ◽  
Kathrin Riemann-Campe ◽  
Fernando Iglesias-Suarez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Policy ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Solar Absorption ◽  
Albedo Feedback ◽  
The Impact

Arctic feedbacks will accelerate climate change and could jeopardise mitigation efforts. The permafrost carbon feedback releases carbon to the atmosphere from thawing permafrost and the sea ice albedo feedback increases solar absorption in the Arctic Ocean. A constant positive albedo feedback and zero permafrost feedback have been used in nearly all climate policy studies to date, while observations and models show that the permafrost feedback is significant and that both feedbacks are nonlinear. Using novel dynamic emulators in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE, we investigate nonlinear interactions of the two feedbacks with the climate and economy under a range of climate scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement. The permafrost feedback interacts with the land and ocean carbon uptake processes, and the albedo feedback evolves through a sequence of nonlinear transitions associated with the loss of Arctic sea ice in different months of the year. The US’s withdrawal from the current national pledges could increase the total discounted economic impact of the two Arctic feedbacks until 2300 by $25 trillion, reaching nearly $120 trillion, while meeting the 1.5 °C and 2 °C targets will reduce the impact by an order of magnitude.

scholarly journals The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. J. Day ◽  
J. L. Bamber ◽  
P. J. Valdes ◽  
J. Kohler
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The observed decline in summer sea ice extent since the 1970s is predicted to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free during the 21st Century. This will lead to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in ocean surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers and is expected to experience rapid warming over the 21st Century. The total sea level rise if all the land ice on Svalbard were to melt completely is 0.02 m. The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of climate change on Svalbard's surface mass balance (SMB) and to determine, in particular, what proportion of the projected changes in precipitation and SMB are a result of changes to the Arctic sea ice cover. To investigate this a regional climate model was forced with monthly mean climatologies of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090 under two emission scenarios. In a novel forcing experiment, 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice were used to force one simulation to investigate the role of sea ice forcing. This experiment results in a 3.5 m water equivalent increase in Svalbard's SMB compared to the present day. This is because over 50 % of the projected increase in winter precipitation over Svalbard under the A1B emissions scenario is due to an increase in lower atmosphere moisture content associated with evaporation from the ice free ocean. These results indicate that increases in precipitation due to sea ice decline may act to moderate mass loss from Svalbard's glaciers due to future Arctic warming.

scholarly journals Inter-Relations between the Arctic Sea Ice and the General Circulation of the Atmosphere (Abstract)

1987 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 252-252
Author(s):  
G. Wendler ◽  
M. Jeffries ◽  
Y. Nagashima
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Zonal Circulation ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
The Pacific Ocean ◽  
Opposing Effects

Satellite imagery has substantially improved the quality of sea-Ice observation over the last decades. Therefore, for a 25-year period, a statistical study based on the monthly Arctic sea-ice data and the monthly mean 700 mbar maps of the Northern Hemisphere was carried out to establish the relationships between sea-ice conditions and the general circulation of the atmosphere. It was found that sea-ice conditions have two opposing effects on the zonal circulation intensity, depending on the season. Heavier than normal ice in winter causes stronger than normal zonal circulation in the subsequent months, whereas heavier than normal ice in the summer–fall causes weaker zonal circulation in the subsequent months. Analyzing the two sectors, the Atlantic and Pacific ones separately, a negative correlation was found, which means a heavy ice year in the Atlantic Ocean is normally associated with a light one in the Pacific Ocean and vice versa.

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