scholarly journals Climate Policy Implications of Nonlinear Decline of Arctic Land Permafrost and Sea Ice

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dmitry Yumashev ◽  
Chris Hope ◽  
Kevin Schaefer ◽  
Kathrin Riemann-Campe ◽  
Fernando Iglesias-Suarez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Policy ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Solar Absorption ◽  
Albedo Feedback ◽  
The Impact

Arctic feedbacks will accelerate climate change and could jeopardise mitigation efforts. The permafrost carbon feedback releases carbon to the atmosphere from thawing permafrost and the sea ice albedo feedback increases solar absorption in the Arctic Ocean. A constant positive albedo feedback and zero permafrost feedback have been used in nearly all climate policy studies to date, while observations and models show that the permafrost feedback is significant and that both feedbacks are nonlinear. Using novel dynamic emulators in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE, we investigate nonlinear interactions of the two feedbacks with the climate and economy under a range of climate scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement. The permafrost feedback interacts with the land and ocean carbon uptake processes, and the albedo feedback evolves through a sequence of nonlinear transitions associated with the loss of Arctic sea ice in different months of the year. The US’s withdrawal from the current national pledges could increase the total discounted economic impact of the two Arctic feedbacks until 2300 by $25 trillion, reaching nearly $120 trillion, while meeting the 1.5 °C and 2 °C targets will reduce the impact by an order of magnitude.

scholarly journals Arctic climate: changes in sea ice extent outweigh changes in snow cover

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 3373-3382 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron Letterly ◽  
Jeffrey Key ◽  
Yinghui Liu
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Feedback Mechanism ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Summer Solstice ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Solar Absorption ◽  
Albedo Feedback

Abstract. Recent declines in Arctic sea ice and snow extent have led to an increase in the absorption of solar energy at the surface, resulting in additional surface heating and a further decline in snow and ice. Using 34 years of satellite data, 1982–2015, we found that the positive trend in solar absorption over the Arctic Ocean is more than double that over Arctic land, and the magnitude of the ice–albedo feedback is four times that of the snow–albedo feedback in summer. The timing of the high-to-low albedo transition has shifted closer to the greater insolation of the summer solstice over ocean, but further away from the summer solstice over land. Therefore, decreasing sea ice cover, not changes in terrestrial snow cover, has been the dominant radiative feedback mechanism over the last few decades.

scholarly journals Arctic Climate: Changes in Sea Ice Extent Outweigh Changes in Snow Cover

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron Letterly ◽  
Jeffrey Key ◽  
Yinghui Liu
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Feedback Mechanism ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Summer Solstice ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Solar Absorption ◽  
Albedo Feedback

Abstract. Recent declines in Arctic sea ice and snow extent have led to an increase in the absorption of solar energy at the surface, resulting in additional surface heating and a further decline in snow and ice. Using 34 years of satellite data, 1982–2015, we found that the trend of solar absorption over the Arctic Ocean is more than double that over Arctic land, and the magnitude of the ice-albedo feedback is four times that of the snow-albedo feedback in summer. The time of the high-to-low albedo transition each year is moving toward the high sun of the summer solstice over ocean but moving away from the summer solstice over land. Therefore, decreasing sea ice cover, not changes in terrestrial snow cover, have been the dominant radiative feedback mechanism over the last few decades and may play an even bigger role in future Arctic climate change.

scholarly journals Cryospheric Impacts of Soviet River Diversion Schemes

1984 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 61-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Holt ◽  
P. M. Kelly ◽  
B. S. G. Cherry
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
The Impact

Soviet plans to divert water from rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean have led to research into the impact of a reduction in discharge on Arctic sea ice. We consider the mechanisms by which discharge reductions might affect sea-ice cover and then test various hypotheses related to these mechanisms. We find several large areas over which sea-ice concentration correlates significantly with variations in river discharge, supporting two particular hypotheses. The first hypothesis concerns the area where the initial impacts are likely to which is the Kara Sea. Reduced riverflow is associated occur, with decreased sea-ice concentration in October, at the time of ice formation. This is believed to be the result of decreased freshening of the surface layer. The second hypothesis concerns possible effects on the large-scale current system of the Arctic Ocean and, in particular, on the inflow of Atlantic and Pacific water. These effects occur as a result of changes in the strength of northward-flowing gradient currents associated with variations in river discharge. Although it is still not certain that substantial transfers of riverflow will take place, it is concluded that the possibility of significant cryospheric effects and, hence, large-scale climate impact should not be neglected.

scholarly journals The Impact of Regional Arctic Sea Ice Loss on Atmospheric Circulation and the NAO

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 889-902 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasmus A. Pedersen ◽  
Ivana Cvijanovic ◽  
Peter L. Langen ◽  
Bo M. Vinther
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sea Ice Reduction

Abstract Reduction of the Arctic sea ice cover can affect the atmospheric circulation and thus impact the climate beyond the Arctic. The atmospheric response may, however, vary with the geographical location of sea ice loss. The atmospheric sensitivity to the location of sea ice loss is studied using a general circulation model in a configuration that allows combination of a prescribed sea ice cover and an active mixed layer ocean. This hybrid setup makes it possible to simulate the isolated impact of sea ice loss and provides a more complete response compared to experiments with fixed sea surface temperatures. Three investigated sea ice scenarios with ice loss in different regions all exhibit substantial near-surface warming, which peaks over the area of ice loss. The maximum warming is found during winter, delayed compared to the maximum sea ice reduction. The wintertime response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation shows a nonuniform sensitivity to the location of sea ice reduction. While all three scenarios exhibit decreased zonal winds related to high-latitude geopotential height increases, the magnitudes and locations of the anomalies vary between the simulations. Investigation of the North Atlantic Oscillation reveals a high sensitivity to the location of the ice loss. The northern center of action exhibits clear shifts in response to the different sea ice reductions. Sea ice loss in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic cause westward and eastward shifts, respectively.

scholarly journals The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. J. Day ◽  
J. L. Bamber ◽  
P. J. Valdes ◽  
J. Kohler
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The observed decline in summer sea ice extent since the 1970s is predicted to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free during the 21st Century. This will lead to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in ocean surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers and is expected to experience rapid warming over the 21st Century. The total sea level rise if all the land ice on Svalbard were to melt completely is 0.02 m. The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of climate change on Svalbard's surface mass balance (SMB) and to determine, in particular, what proportion of the projected changes in precipitation and SMB are a result of changes to the Arctic sea ice cover. To investigate this a regional climate model was forced with monthly mean climatologies of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090 under two emission scenarios. In a novel forcing experiment, 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice were used to force one simulation to investigate the role of sea ice forcing. This experiment results in a 3.5 m water equivalent increase in Svalbard's SMB compared to the present day. This is because over 50 % of the projected increase in winter precipitation over Svalbard under the A1B emissions scenario is due to an increase in lower atmosphere moisture content associated with evaporation from the ice free ocean. These results indicate that increases in precipitation due to sea ice decline may act to moderate mass loss from Svalbard's glaciers due to future Arctic warming.

scholarly journals Natural variability of the Arctic Ocean sea ice during the present interglacial

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (42) ◽  
pp. 26069-26075
Author(s):  
Anne de Vernal ◽  
Claude Hillaire-Marcel ◽  
Cynthia Le Duc ◽  
Philippe Roberge ◽  
Camille Brice ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Natural Variability ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Lomonosov Ridge ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Open Question ◽  
The Impact

The impact of the ongoing anthropogenic warming on the Arctic Ocean sea ice is ascertained and closely monitored. However, its long-term fate remains an open question as its natural variability on centennial to millennial timescales is not well documented. Here, we use marine sedimentary records to reconstruct Arctic sea-ice fluctuations. Cores collected along the Lomonosov Ridge that extends across the Arctic Ocean from northern Greenland to the Laptev Sea were radiocarbon dated and analyzed for their micropaleontological and palynological contents, both bearing information on the past sea-ice cover. Results demonstrate that multiyear pack ice remained a robust feature of the western and central Lomonosov Ridge and that perennial sea ice remained present throughout the present interglacial, even during the climate optimum of the middle Holocene that globally peaked ∼6,500 y ago. In contradistinction, the southeastern Lomonosov Ridge area experienced seasonally sea-ice-free conditions, at least, sporadically, until about 4,000 y ago. They were marked by relatively high phytoplanktonic productivity and organic carbon fluxes at the seafloor resulting in low biogenic carbonate preservation. These results point to contrasted west–east surface ocean conditions in the Arctic Ocean, not unlike those of the Arctic dipole linked to the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Hence, our data suggest that seasonally ice-free conditions in the southeastern Arctic Ocean with a dominant Arctic dipolar pattern, may be a recurrent feature under “warm world” climate.

Sea-ice algal phenology in a warmer Arctic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Letizia Tedesco ◽  
Marcello Vichi ◽  
Enrico Scoccimarro
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Algal Blooms ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Time Windows ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Biological Time ◽  
Algal Productivity ◽  
The Impact

<p>The Arctic sea-ice decline is among the most emblematic manifestations of climate change and is occurring before we understand its ecological consequences. We investigated future changes in algal productivity combining a biogeochemical model for sympagic algae with sea-ice drivers from an ensemble of 18 CMIP5 climate models. Model projections indicate quasi-linear physical changes along latitudes but markedly nonlinear response of sympagic algae, with distinct latitudinal patterns. While snow cover thinning explains the advancement of algal blooms below 66°N, narrowing of the biological time windows yields small changes in the 66°N to 74°N band, and shifting of the ice seasons toward more favorable photoperiods drives the increase in algal production above 74°N. These diverse latitudinal responses indicate that the impact of declining sea ice on Arctic sympagic production is both large and complex, with consequent trophic and phenological cascades expected in the rest of the food web.</p>

scholarly journals Time-Dependent Variations in the Arctic’s Surface Albedo Feedback and the Link to Seasonality in Sea Ice

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 393-410 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Andry ◽  
Richard Bintanja ◽  
Wilco Hazeleger
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Kernel Method ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Albedo Feedback

The Arctic is warming 2 to 3 times faster than the global average. Arctic sea ice cover is very sensitive to this warming and has reached historic minima in late summer in recent years (e.g., 2007 and 2012). Considering that the Arctic Ocean is mainly ice covered and that the albedo of sea ice is very high compared to that of open water, any change in sea ice cover will have a strong impact on the climate response through the radiative surface albedo feedback. Since sea ice area is projected to shrink considerably, this feedback will likely vary considerably in time. Feedbacks are usually evaluated as being constant in time, even though feedbacks and climate sensitivity depend on the climate state. Here the authors assess and quantify these temporal changes in the strength of the surface albedo feedback in response to global warming. Analyses unequivocally demonstrate that the strength of the surface albedo feedback exhibits considerable temporal variations. Specifically, the strength of the surface albedo feedback in the Arctic, evaluated for simulations of the future climate (CMIP5 RCP8.5) using a kernel method, shows a distinct peak around the year 2100. This maximum is found to be linked to increased seasonality in sea ice cover when sea ice recedes, in which sea ice retreat during spring turns out to be the dominant factor affecting the strength of the annual surface albedo feedback in the Arctic. Hence, changes in sea ice seasonality and the associated fluctuations in surface albedo feedback strength will exert a time-varying effect on Arctic amplification during the projected warming over the next century.

scholarly journals Interannual variability in Transpolar Drift ice thickness and potential impact of Atlantification

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Jakob Belter ◽  
Thomas Krumpen ◽  
Luisa von Albedyll ◽  
Tatiana A. Alekseeva ◽  
Sergei V. Frolov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Fram Strait ◽  
Ice Growth ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Transpolar Drift ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Changes in Arctic sea ice thickness are the result of complex interactions of the dynamic and variable ice cover with atmosphere and ocean. Most of the sea ice exits the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait, which is why long-term measurements of ice thickness at the end of the Transpolar Drift provide insight into the integrated signals of thermodynamic and dynamic influences along the pathways of Arctic sea ice. We present an updated time series of extensive ice thickness surveys carried out at the end of the Transpolar Drift between 2001 and 2020. Overall, we see a more than 20 % thinning of modal ice thickness since 2001. A comparison with first preliminary results from the international Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) shows that the modal summer thickness of the MOSAiC floe and its wider vicinity are consistent with measurements from previous years. By combining this unique time series with the Lagrangian sea ice tracking tool, ICETrack, and a simple thermodynamic sea ice growth model, we link the observed interannual ice thickness variability north of Fram Strait to increased drift speeds along the Transpolar Drift and the consequential variations in sea ice age and number of freezing degree days. We also show that the increased influence of upward-directed ocean heat flux in the eastern marginal ice zones, termed Atlantification, is not only responsible for sea ice thinning in and around the Laptev Sea, but also that the induced thickness anomalies persist beyond the Russian shelves and are potentially still measurable at the end of the Transpolar Drift after more than a year. With a tendency towards an even faster Transpolar Drift, winter sea ice growth will have less time to compensate the impact of Atlantification on sea ice growth in the eastern marginal ice zone, which will increasingly be felt in other parts of the sea ice covered Arctic.

scholarly journals Evidence for an increasing role of ocean heat in Arctic winter sea ice growth

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-42
Author(s):  
Robert Ricker ◽  
Frank Kauker ◽  
Axel Schweiger ◽  
Stefan Hendricks ◽  
Jinlun Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Growth ◽  
Marginal Seas ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Barents And Kara Seas ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWe investigate how sea ice decline in summer and warmer ocean and surface temperatures in winter affect sea ice growth in the Arctic. Sea ice volume changes are estimated from satellite observations during winter from 2002 to 2019 and partitioned into thermodynamic growth and dynamic volume change. Both components are compared to validated sea ice-ocean models forced by reanalysis data to extend observations back to 1980 and to understand the mechanisms that cause the observed trends and variability. We find that a negative feedback driven by the increasing sea ice retreat in summer yields increasing thermodynamic ice growth during winter in the Arctic marginal seas eastward from the Laptev Sea to the Beaufort Sea. However, in the Barents and Kara Seas, this feedback seems to be overpowered by the impact of increasing oceanic heat flux and air temperatures, resulting in negative trends in thermodynamic ice growth of -2 km3month-1yr-1 on average over 2002-2019 derived from satellite observations.

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