scholarly journals Narrowing the Range of Future Climate Projections Using Historical Observations of Atmospheric CO2

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (8) ◽  
pp. 3039-3053 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben B. B. Booth ◽  
Glen R. Harris ◽  
James M. Murphy ◽  
Jo I. House ◽  
Chris D. Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
First Century ◽  
System Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Magnitude Response ◽  
Large Magnitude ◽  
Strong Constraint ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
Perturbed Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Climate Responses

Uncertainty in the behavior of the carbon cycle is important in driving the range in future projected climate change. Previous comparisons of model responses with historical CO2 observations have suggested a strong constraint on simulated projections that could narrow the range considered plausible. This study uses a new 57-member perturbed parameter ensemble of variants of an Earth system model for three future scenarios, which 1) explores a wider range of potential climate responses than before and 2) includes the impact of past uncertainty in carbon emissions on simulated trends. These two factors represent a more complete exploration of uncertainty, although they lead to a weaker constraint on the range of future CO2 concentrations as compared to earlier studies. Nevertheless, CO2 observations are shown to be effective at narrowing the distribution, excluding 30 of 57 simulations as inconsistent with historical CO2 changes. The perturbed model variants excluded are mainly at the high end of the future projected CO2 changes, with only 8 of the 26 variants projecting RCP8.5 2100 concentrations in excess of 1100 ppm retained. Interestingly, a minority of the high-end variants were able to capture historical CO2 trends, with the large-magnitude response emerging later in the century (owing to high climate sensitivities, strong carbon feedbacks, or both). Comparison with observed CO2 is effective at narrowing both the range and distribution of projections out to the mid-twenty-first century for all scenarios and to 2100 for a scenario with low emissions.

Dynamically Downscaled High-Resolution Hydroclimate Projections for Western Canada

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 423-450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andre R. Erler ◽  
W. Richard Peltier ◽  
Marc D’Orgeville
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Western Canada ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Major River ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Accurate identification of the impact of global warming on water resources in major river systems represents a significant challenge to the understanding of climate change on the regional scale. Here, dynamically downscaled climate projections for western Canada are presented, and impacts on hydrological variables in two major river basins, the Fraser and Athabasca, are discussed. These regions are both challenging because of the complexity of the topography and important because of the economic activity occurring within them. To obtain robust projections of future conditions, and to adequately characterize the impact of natural variability, a small initial condition ensemble of independently downscaled climate projections is employed. The Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), is used to generate the ensemble, which consists of four members. Downscaling is performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, version 3.4.1 (WRF V3.4.1), in a nested configuration with two domains at 30- and 10-km resolution, respectively. The entire ensemble was integrated for a historical validation period and for a mid-twenty-first-century projection period [assuming representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) for the future trajectory of greenhouse gases]. The projections herein are characterized by an increase in winter precipitation for the mid-twenty-first-century period, whereas net precipitation in summer is projected to decrease, due to increased evapotranspiration. In the Fraser River basin, a shift to more liquid precipitation and earlier snowmelt will likely reduce the seasonal variability of runoff, in particular the spring freshet. In the Athabasca River basin, winter precipitation and snowmelt may increase somewhat, but increasing evapotranspiration may lead to reduced streamflow in late summer.

scholarly journals Changes in the Risk of Cool-Season Tornadoes over Southern Australia due to Model Projections of Anthropogenic Warming

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (9) ◽  
pp. 2440-2449 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Timbal ◽  
R. Kounkou ◽  
G. A. Mills
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Cool Season ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change is likely to be felt most acutely through changes in the frequency of extreme meteorological events. However, quantifying the impact of climate change on these events is a challenge because the core of the climate change science relies on general circulation models to detail future climate projections, and many of these extreme events occur on small scales that are not resolved by climate models. This note describes an attempt to infer the impact of climate change on one particular type of extreme meteorological event—the cool-season tornadoes of southern Australia. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicts threat areas for cool-season tornadoes using fine-resolution numerical weather prediction model output to define areas where the buoyancy of a near-surface air parcel and the vertical wind shear each exceed specified thresholds. The diagnostic has been successfully adapted to coarser-resolution climate models and applied to simulations of the current climate, as well as future projections of the climate over southern Australia. Simulations of the late twentieth century are used to validate the models’ ability to reproduce the climatology of the risk of cool-season tornado formation by comparing these with similar computations based on historical reanalyses. Model biases are overcome by setting model specific thresholds to define the cool-season tornado risk. The diagnostic, applied to simulations of the twenty-first century, is then used to quantify the impact of the projected climate change on cool-season tornado risk. The sign of the response is consistent across all models: a decrease of the risk of formation during the twenty-first century is projected, driven by the thermodynamical response. The thermal response is modulated by the dynamical response, which varies between models. The projected decrease in tornadoes risk during the cool season is consistent with the projection of positive southern annular mode trends and the known influence of this mode of variability on interannual to intraseasonal time-scale variations in cool-season tornado occurrence.

The Impact of BRICS in Reconstructing the International Order

2020 ◽  
pp. 87
Author(s):  
Tareq Mohammed Dhannoon AL Taie
Keyword(s):  
International System ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
Active Role ◽  
International Order ◽  
First Century ◽  
International Affairs ◽  
Strategic Action ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
Future Work ◽  
The Impact

The BRICS countries have a historical aspiration for global leadership, especially Russia and China, and other countries trying to have a position in the pyramid of international powers in the twenty-first century, especially Brazil, India and South Africa, they worked to unify their efforts, in order to achieve integration in the strategic action, activate its role in International affairs, ending American domination , and restructuring an international system that have an active role in its interactions.       The research hypothesis is based on the idea that the BRICS group, despite the nature of its economic composition and its long-term goals, but its political influence as a bloc, is greater than the proportion of its economic influence in restructuring the new international order. The BRICS group has the capabilities to reshape the international order, but disputes among some of its members represent a challenge to its future work. Its goals will not be achieved without teamwork. Third world countries, especially those that reject unipolarism, have regarded one of the pillars supporting multi-polarity, aiming of giving them freedom of movement in international relations. The ultimate goal of the BRICS is a political nature, as economic mechanisms are used to achieve political goals.

Self-Esteem and Loneliness as Predicting Factors of Arab Children Achievement İn Kuala Lumpur

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 199 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asma'a Abdel Fattah Alhoot ◽  
Ssekamanya Sıraje Abdallah
Keyword(s):  
Academic Achievement ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Self Esteem ◽  
Kuala Lumpur ◽  
Arab Children ◽  
Predicting Factors ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
Arab Schools ◽  
And Gender ◽  
The Impact

Taking into consideration the fact that self-esteem and loneliness have an even more important role to play in students' learning, this study seeks to examine the correlation of these two factors with children academic performance. The study involved 499 (grade 4 to grade 9) Arab children studying at Arab schools in Kuala Lumpur-Malaysia. Data were collected via two questionnaires (one for loneliness and the other for self-esteem). The correlational data analysis yielded a negative correlation between loneliness and academic achievement while there is a positive correlation between self-esteem and achievement. Results also suggested that there is no correlation between students' gender, age, and academic achievement. Furthermore, the results revealed that self-esteem is a good predictor of achievement while loneliness and gender are not good predictors. The findings of the present study are discussed in relation to the relevant literature, taking into consideration the impact of children mental health on their academic achievement. Finally, recommendations for further research are presented.

Conclusion

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Early Modern ◽  
First Century ◽  
Philosophical Theology ◽  
Time And Space ◽  
Modern Thought ◽  
Metaphysics Of Time ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Impact

This Conclusion draws the study to a close, and recounts its developmental theses. The first thesis is that the complexity of positions on time (and space) defended in early modern thought is hugely under-appreciated. An enormous variety of positions were defended during this period, going far beyond the well-known absolutism–relationism debate. The second thesis is that during this period three distinct kinds of absolutism can be found in British philosophy: Morean, Gassendist, and Newtonian. The chapter concludes with a few notes on the impact of absolutism within and beyond philosophy: on twenty-first-century metaphysics of time; and on art, geology, and philosophical theology.

scholarly journals The Conditions for after Work: Financialization and Informalization in Posttransition South Africa

PMLA ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 127 (4) ◽  
pp. 782-799 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne-Maria Makhulu
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Informal Settlements ◽  
Global South ◽  
First Century ◽  
Informal Employment ◽  
Shop Floor ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
Informal Economies ◽  
Forms Of Life ◽  
Modes Of Life

This essay situates the problem of twenty-first-century work in the global South—specifically, in South Africa—to challenge northern theories of the crisis of work. Addressing the break between Fordism and post-Fordism peculiar to the postcolonial context, it argues that new regimes of work should be understood in relation both to longer histories of colonial resistance to proletarianization (to the racisms of the shop floor) and to colonial Fordisms, as well as to the way these two factors inform the current expansion of informal employment. What practices and forms of life emerge from the precarity of informal economies and informal settlements? How are precarious modes of life connected to and informed by the steady dematerialization of the economy through financialization?

scholarly journals Climate Change Projection in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 Model Based on New GHGs Concentration Pathways

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyun Min Sung ◽  
Jisun Kim ◽  
Sungbo Shim ◽  
Jeong-byn Seo ◽  
Sang-Hoon Kwon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
System Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Twenty First Century

AbstractThe National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.

scholarly journals Measuring the contribution of specialist vocabulary knowledge to academic achievement: disentangling effects of multiple types of word knowledge

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Masrai ◽  
James Milton ◽  
Dina Abdel Salam El-Dakhs ◽  
Heba Elmenshawy
Keyword(s):  
Academic Achievement ◽  
Academic Success ◽  
Success Factors ◽  
Vocabulary Knowledge ◽  
The Other ◽  
Word Knowledge ◽  
Academic Vocabulary ◽  
Vocabulary Size ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis study investigates the idea that knowledge of specialist subject vocabulary can make a significant and measurable impact on academic performance, separate from and additional to the impact of general and academic vocabulary knowledge. It tests the suggestion of Hyland and Tse (TESOL Quarterly, 41:235–253, 2007) that specialist vocabulary should be given more attention in teaching. Three types of vocabulary knowledge, general, academic and a specialist business vocabulary factors, are tested against GPA and a business module scores among students of business at a college in Egypt. The results show that while general vocabulary size has the greatest explanation of variance in the academic success factors, the other two factors - academic and a specialist business vocabulary - make separate and additional further contributions. The contribution to the explanation of variance made by specialist vocabulary knowledge is double that of academic vocabulary knowledge.

scholarly journals Urban Geometry Optimization to Mitigate Climate Change: Towards Energy-Efficient Buildings

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Hatem Mahmoud ◽  
Ayman Ragab
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Thermal Efficiency ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Urban Geometry ◽  
Outdoor Spaces ◽  
The Impact

The density of building blocks and insufficient greenery in cities tend to contribute dramatically not only to increased heat stress in the built environment but also to higher energy demand for cooling. Urban planners should, therefore, be conscious of their responsibility to reduce energy usage of buildings along with improving outdoor thermal efficiency. This study examines the impact of numerous proposed urban geometry cases on the thermal efficiency of outer spaces as well as the energy consumption of adjacent buildings under various climate change scenarios as representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate projections for New Aswan city in 2035. The investigation was performed at one of the most underutilized outdoor spaces on the new campus of Aswan University in New Aswan city. The potential reduction of heat stress was investigated so as to improve the thermal comfort of the investigated outdoor spaces, as well as energy savings based on the proposed strategies. Accordingly, the most appropriate scenario to be adopted to cope with the inevitable climate change was identified. The proposed scenarios were divided into four categories of parameters. In the first category, shelters partially (25–50% and 75%) covering the streets were used. The second category proposed dividing the space parallel or perpendicular to the existing buildings. The third category was a hybrid scenario of the first and second categories. In the fourth category, a green cover of grass was added. A coupling evaluation was applied utilizing ENVI-met v4.2 and Design-Builder v4.5 to measure and improve the thermal efficiency of the outdoor space and reduce the cooling energy. The results demonstrated that it is better to cover outdoor spaces with 50% of the overall area than transform outdoor spaces into canyons.

scholarly journals A Twenty-First Century Guidebook for Applied Dynamical Systems

2006 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 279-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. R. Champneys
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Systems ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Vector Fields ◽  
Nonlinear Oscillations ◽  
First Century ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Young Researchers

This paper represents the author’s view on the impact of the book Nonlinear Oscillations, Dynamical Systems and Bifurcations of Vector Fields by John Guckenheimer and Philip Holmes, first published in 1983 (Springer-Verlag, Berlin). In particular, the questions addressed are: if one were to write a similar book for the 21st century, which topics should be contained and what form should the book take in order to have a similar impact on the modern generation of young researchers in applied dynamical systems?

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