Dynamically Downscaled High-Resolution Hydroclimate Projections for Western Canada

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 423-450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andre R. Erler ◽  
W. Richard Peltier ◽  
Marc D’Orgeville
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Western Canada ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Major River ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Accurate identification of the impact of global warming on water resources in major river systems represents a significant challenge to the understanding of climate change on the regional scale. Here, dynamically downscaled climate projections for western Canada are presented, and impacts on hydrological variables in two major river basins, the Fraser and Athabasca, are discussed. These regions are both challenging because of the complexity of the topography and important because of the economic activity occurring within them. To obtain robust projections of future conditions, and to adequately characterize the impact of natural variability, a small initial condition ensemble of independently downscaled climate projections is employed. The Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), is used to generate the ensemble, which consists of four members. Downscaling is performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, version 3.4.1 (WRF V3.4.1), in a nested configuration with two domains at 30- and 10-km resolution, respectively. The entire ensemble was integrated for a historical validation period and for a mid-twenty-first-century projection period [assuming representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) for the future trajectory of greenhouse gases]. The projections herein are characterized by an increase in winter precipitation for the mid-twenty-first-century period, whereas net precipitation in summer is projected to decrease, due to increased evapotranspiration. In the Fraser River basin, a shift to more liquid precipitation and earlier snowmelt will likely reduce the seasonal variability of runoff, in particular the spring freshet. In the Athabasca River basin, winter precipitation and snowmelt may increase somewhat, but increasing evapotranspiration may lead to reduced streamflow in late summer.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change over China under the SRES A1B Scenario Using 28 AOGCMs

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (17) ◽  
pp. 4741-4756 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weilin Chen ◽  
Zhihong Jiang ◽  
Laurent Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Huai River ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Impact ◽  
A1b Scenario

Probabilistic projection of climate change consists of formulating the climate change information in a probabilistic manner at either global or regional scale. This can produce useful results for studies of the impact of climate change impact and change mitigation. In the present study, a simple yet effective approach is proposed with the purpose of producing probabilistic results of climate change over China for the middle and end of the twenty-first century under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B (SRES A1B) emission scenario. Data from 28 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are used. The methodology consists of ranking the 28 models, based on their ability to simulate climate over China in terms of two model evaluation metrics. Different weights were then given to the models according to their performances in present-day climate. Results of the evaluation for the current climate show that five models that have relatively higher resolutions—namely, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia ECHAM4 (INGV ECHAM4), the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (UKMO HadCM3), the CSIRO Mark version 3.5 (Mk3.5), the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 3.2, high-resolution version [MIROC3.2 (hires)]—perform better than others over China. Their corresponding weights (normalized to 1) are 0.289, 0.096, 0.058, 0.048, and 0.044, respectively. Under the A1B scenario, surface air temperature is projected to increase significantly for both the middle and end of the twenty-first century, with larger magnitude over the north and in winter. There are also significant increases in rainfall in the twenty-first century under the A1B scenario, especially for the period 2070–99. As far as the interannual variability is concerned, the most striking feature is that there are high probabilities for the future intensification of interannual variability of precipitation over most of China in both winter and summer. For instance, over the Yangtze–Huai River basin (28°–35°N, 105°–120°E), there is a 60% probability of increased interannual standard deviation of precipitation by 20% in summer, which is much higher than that of the mean precipitation. In general there are small differences between weighted and unweighted projections, but the uncertainties in the projected changes are reduced to some extent after weighting.

scholarly journals Changes in the Risk of Cool-Season Tornadoes over Southern Australia due to Model Projections of Anthropogenic Warming

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (9) ◽  
pp. 2440-2449 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Timbal ◽  
R. Kounkou ◽  
G. A. Mills
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Cool Season ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change is likely to be felt most acutely through changes in the frequency of extreme meteorological events. However, quantifying the impact of climate change on these events is a challenge because the core of the climate change science relies on general circulation models to detail future climate projections, and many of these extreme events occur on small scales that are not resolved by climate models. This note describes an attempt to infer the impact of climate change on one particular type of extreme meteorological event—the cool-season tornadoes of southern Australia. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicts threat areas for cool-season tornadoes using fine-resolution numerical weather prediction model output to define areas where the buoyancy of a near-surface air parcel and the vertical wind shear each exceed specified thresholds. The diagnostic has been successfully adapted to coarser-resolution climate models and applied to simulations of the current climate, as well as future projections of the climate over southern Australia. Simulations of the late twentieth century are used to validate the models’ ability to reproduce the climatology of the risk of cool-season tornado formation by comparing these with similar computations based on historical reanalyses. Model biases are overcome by setting model specific thresholds to define the cool-season tornado risk. The diagnostic, applied to simulations of the twenty-first century, is then used to quantify the impact of the projected climate change on cool-season tornado risk. The sign of the response is consistent across all models: a decrease of the risk of formation during the twenty-first century is projected, driven by the thermodynamical response. The thermal response is modulated by the dynamical response, which varies between models. The projected decrease in tornadoes risk during the cool season is consistent with the projection of positive southern annular mode trends and the known influence of this mode of variability on interannual to intraseasonal time-scale variations in cool-season tornado occurrence.

Conclusion

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Early Modern ◽  
First Century ◽  
Philosophical Theology ◽  
Time And Space ◽  
Modern Thought ◽  
Metaphysics Of Time ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Impact

This Conclusion draws the study to a close, and recounts its developmental theses. The first thesis is that the complexity of positions on time (and space) defended in early modern thought is hugely under-appreciated. An enormous variety of positions were defended during this period, going far beyond the well-known absolutism–relationism debate. The second thesis is that during this period three distinct kinds of absolutism can be found in British philosophy: Morean, Gassendist, and Newtonian. The chapter concludes with a few notes on the impact of absolutism within and beyond philosophy: on twenty-first-century metaphysics of time; and on art, geology, and philosophical theology.

scholarly journals A Twenty-First Century Guidebook for Applied Dynamical Systems

2006 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 279-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. R. Champneys
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Systems ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Vector Fields ◽  
Nonlinear Oscillations ◽  
First Century ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Young Researchers

This paper represents the author’s view on the impact of the book Nonlinear Oscillations, Dynamical Systems and Bifurcations of Vector Fields by John Guckenheimer and Philip Holmes, first published in 1983 (Springer-Verlag, Berlin). In particular, the questions addressed are: if one were to write a similar book for the 21st century, which topics should be contained and what form should the book take in order to have a similar impact on the modern generation of young researchers in applied dynamical systems?

Globalization, Nationalism, and Music Education in the Twenty-First Century in Greater China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wai-Chung Ho
Keyword(s):  
Music Education ◽  
Identity Formation ◽  
Cultural Values ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Cultural Development ◽  
First Century ◽  
Greater China ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
China Mainland ◽  
The Impact

Globalization, Nationalism, and Music Education in the Twenty-First Century in Greater China examines the recent developments in school education and music education in Greater China – Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan – and the relationship between, and integration of, national cultural identity and globalization in their respective school curriculums. Regardless of their common history and cultural backgrounds, in recent decades, these localities have experienced divergent political, cultural, and educational structures. Through an analysis of the literature, official curriculum documents, approved music textbooks, and a survey questionnaire and in-depth interviews with music teachers, this book also examines the ways in which policies for national identity formation and globalization interact to complement and contradict each other in the context of music education in respect to national and cultural values in the three territories. Wai-Chung Ho’s substantive research interests include the sociology of music, China’s education system, and the comparative study of East Asian music education. Her research focuses on education and development, with an emphasis on the impact of the interplay between globalization, nationalization, and localization on cultural development and school music education.

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balance of Oil Sands Reclamation Covers and Natural Soil Profiles

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (11) ◽  
pp. 1731-1752 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Shahabul Alam ◽  
S. Lee Barbour ◽  
Amin Elshorbagy ◽  
Mingbin Huang
Keyword(s):  
Oil Sands ◽  
Weather Generator ◽  
First Century ◽  
Soil Profiles ◽  
Percentage Increase ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Historical Climate ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The design of reclamation soil covers at oil sands mines in northern Alberta, Canada, has been conventionally based on the calibration of soil–vegetation–atmosphere transfer (SVAT) models against field monitoring observations collected over several years, followed by simulations of long-term performance using historical climate data. This paper evaluates the long-term water balances for reclamation covers on two oil sands landforms and three natural coarse-textured forest soil profiles using both historical climate data and future climate projections. Twenty-first century daily precipitation and temperature data from CanESM2 were downscaled based on three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) employing a stochastic weather generator [Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG)]. Relative humidity, wind speed, and net radiation were downscaled using the delta change method. Downscaled precipitation and estimated potential evapotranspiration were used as inputs to simulate soil water dynamics using physically based models. Probability distributions of growing season (April–October) actual evapotranspiration (AET) and net percolation (NP) for the baseline and future periods show that AET and NP at all sites are expected to increase throughout the twenty-first century regardless of RCP, time period, and soil profile. Greater increases in AET and NP are projected toward the end of the twenty-first century. The increases in future NP at the two reclamation covers are larger (as a percentage increase) than at most of the natural sites. Increases in NP will result in greater water yield to surface water and may accelerate the rate at which chemical constituents contained within mine waste are released to downstream receptors, suggesting these potential changes need to be considered in mine closure designs.

scholarly journals The Impact of digitization on the religious sphere: televangelism as an example

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 189
Author(s):  
Shaimma El Naggar
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Digital Media ◽  
First Century ◽  
Religious Expression ◽  
Media Technologies ◽  
Social Media Networks ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Nuanced Understanding ◽  
Muslim Communities ◽  
The Impact

<p>Over the past few decades, televangelism has emerged as one important media phenomenon, inter alia, among Muslim communities. As a phenomenon, televangelism is interesting in many respects; it is a manifestation of the phenomenon of "info-tainment" as televangelists integrate entertainment features such as sound effects and music in their sermons. It is also a manifestation of the rise of the celebrity culture as televangelists have become 'media celebrities' with thousands of hundreds of fans and followers on social media networks.</p><p> </p><p>Thematically, this study is divided into two main sections. First. I delineate the characteristics of televangelism as a novel form of religious expression in which televangelists adopt a modern style and use colloquial language; and in which televangelists present religion as a source of individual change. I have argued that these features seem to have granted televangelists popularity particularly among Muslim youth who view televangelism as a new form of religious expression that is modern in appearance and relevant to their everyday lives.</p><p>The study has further highlighted the importance of digital media technologies in popularizing televangelists' programmes and sermons. Drawing on two case studies of popular televangelists, namely Amr Khaled and Hamza Yusuf, the study has shown that televangelists draw on a plethora of digital media tools to extend the visibility of their programmes including websites and social media networks. The study has found that televangelists' fans play an important role in popularizing televangelists' programmes. Moreover, the study relates televangelism to the rise of digital Islam. The study has argued that digitization and the increase of literacy rates have changed the structure of religious authority in the twenty first century, giving rise to new voices that are competing for authority. </p><p>Having provided an explanatory framework for the phenomenon of televangelism, the study moves in the second section to critique televangelism as an 'info-tainment' phenomenon.</p>Drawing on Carrette and King's <em>Selling Spirituality, </em>one issue that the study raises is the extent to which televangelism fits into the modern form of 'spiritualities'. Rather than being a critical reflection of the consumer culture, modern spiritualities seem to 'smooth out' resistance to the hegemony of capitalism and consumerism. I have proposed that it is through a content-related analysis of televangelists' sermons that one can get a nuanced understanding of how the discourses of particular televangelists can possibly relate to dominant (capitalist) ideologies, how structures of power are represented in their discourses and what their texts may reveal about the socio-historical contexts of Muslims in the twenty first century.

Mid-twenty-first century global wave climate projections: Results from a dynamic CMIP5 based ensemble

2019 ◽  
Vol 172 ◽  
pp. 69-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gil Lemos ◽  
Alvaro Semedo ◽  
Mikhail Dobrynin ◽  
Arno Behrens ◽  
Joanna Staneva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wave Climate ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Twenty First Century

Drivers of Twenty-First Century U.S. Winter Precipitation Trends in CMIP6 Models: A Storyline-Based Approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-48
Author(s):  
Daniel F. Schmidt ◽  
Kevin M. Grise
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
First Century ◽  
Precipitation Trend ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Precipitation Trends

AbstractClimate change during the twenty-first century has the potential to substantially alter geographic patterns of precipitation. However, regional precipitation changes can be very difficult to project, and in some regions, global climate models do not even agree on the sign of the precipitation trend. Since some of this uncertainty is due to internal variability rather than model bias, models cannot be used to narrow the possibilities to a single outcome, but they can usefully quantify the range of plausible outcomes and identify the combination of dynamical drivers that would be likely to produce each.This study uses a storylines approach—a type of regression-based analysis—to identify some of the key dynamical drivers that explain the variance in 21st century U.S. winter precipitation trends across CMIP6 models under the SSP3-7.0 emissions scenario. This analysis shows that the spread in precipitation trends is not primarily driven by differences in modeled climate sensitivity. Key drivers include global-mean surface temperature, but also tropical upper-troposphere temperature, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific-North America (PNA) pattern, and the East Pacific (EP) dipole (a dipole pattern in geopotential heights over North America’s Pacific coast). Combinations of these drivers can reinforce or cancel to produce various high- or low-impact scenarios for winter precipitation trends in various regions of the United States. For example, the most extreme winter precipitation trends in the southwestern U.S. result from opposite trends in ENSO and EP, whereas the wettest winter precipitation trends in the midwestern U.S. result from a combination of strong global warming and a negative PNA trend.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document