scholarly journals Unraveling Causes for the Changing Behavior of the Tropical Indian Ocean in the Past Few Decades

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 2377-2388 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Weiqing Han ◽  
Frank Sienz
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
The Pacific

Observations show that decadal (10–20 yr) to interdecadal (>20 yr) variability of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) closely follows that of the Pacific until the 1960s. Since then, the TIO SST exhibits a persistent warming trend, whereas the Pacific SST shows large-amplitude fluctuations associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), and the decadal variability of the TIO SST is out of phase with that of the Pacific after around 1980. Here causes for the changing behavior of the TIO SST are explored, by analyzing multiple observational datasets and the recently available large-ensemble simulations from two climate models. It is found that on interdecadal time scales, the persistent TIO warming trend is caused by emergence of anthropogenic warming overcoming internal variability, while the time of emergence occurs much later in the Pacific. On decadal time scales, two major tropical volcanic eruptions occurred in the 1980s and 1990s causing decadal SST cooling over the TIO during which the IPO was in warm phase, yielding the out-of-phase relation. The more evident fingerprints of external forcing in the TIO compared to the Pacific result from the much weaker TIO internal decadal–interdecadal variability, making the TIO prone to the external forcing. These results imply that the ongoing warming and natural external forcing may make the Indian Ocean more active, playing an increasingly important role in affecting regional and global climate.

scholarly journals Decadal Variability of the Indian and Pacific Walker Cells since the 1960s: Do They Covary on Decadal Time Scales?

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (21) ◽  
pp. 8447-8468 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weiqing Han ◽  
Gerald A. Meehl ◽  
Aixue Hu ◽  
Jian Zheng ◽  
Jessica Kenigson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Past Century ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Decadal Variations ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The 1960S

Previous studies have investigated the centennial and multidecadal trends of the Pacific and Indian Ocean Walker cells (WCs) during the past century, but have obtained no consensus owing to data uncertainties and weak signals of the long-term trends. This paper focuses on decadal variability (periods of one to few decades) by first documenting the variability of the WCs and warm-pool convection, and their covariability since the 1960s, using in situ and satellite observations and reanalysis products. The causes for the variability and covariability are then explored using a Bayesian dynamic linear model, which can extract nonstationary effects of climate modes. The warm-pool convection exhibits apparent decadal variability, generally covarying with the Indian and Pacific Ocean WCs during winter (November–April) with enhanced convection corresponding to intensified WCs, and the Indian–Pacific WCs covary. During summer (May–October), the warm-pool convection still highly covaries with the Pacific WC but does not covary with the Indian Ocean WC, and the Indian–Pacific WCs are uncorrelated. The wintertime coherent variability results from the vital influence of ENSO decadal variation, which reduces warm-pool convection and weakens the WCs during El Niño–like conditions. During summer, while ENSO decadal variability still dominates the Pacific WC, decadal variations of ENSO, the Indian Ocean dipole, Indian summer monsoon convection, and tropical Indian Ocean SST have comparable effects on the Indian Ocean WC overall, with monsoon convection having the largest effect since the 1990s. The complex causes for the Indian Ocean WC during summer result in its poor covariability with the Pacific WC and warm-pool convection.

scholarly journals Why Has the Relationship between Indian and Pacific Ocean Decadal Variability Changed in Recent Decades?

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (6) ◽  
pp. 1971-1983 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Dong ◽  
Michael J. McPhaden
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Negative Phase ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
Indian Ocean Basin Mode ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Both the Indian and Pacific Oceans exhibit prominent decadal time scale variations in sea surface temperature (SST), linked dynamically via atmospheric and oceanic processes. However, the relationship between SST in these two basins underwent a dramatic transformation beginning around 1985. Prior to that, SST variations associated with the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOB) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) were positively correlated, whereas afterward they were much less clearly synchronized. Evidence is presented from both observations and coupled state-of-the-art climate models that enhanced external forcing, particularly from increased anthropogenic greenhouse gases, was the principal cause of this changed relationship. Using coupled climate model experiments, it is shown that without external forcing, the evolution of the IOB would be strongly forced by variations in the IPO. However, with strong external forcing, the dynamical linkage between the IOB and the IPO weakens so that the negative phase IPO after 2000 is unable to force a negative phase IOB-induced cooling of the Indian Ocean. This changed relationship in the IOB and IPO led to unique SST patterns in the Indo-Pacific region after 2000, which favored exceptionally strong easterly trade winds over the tropical Pacific Ocean and a pronounced global warming hiatus in the first decade of the twenty-first century.

scholarly journals Submonthly Indian Ocean Cooling Events and Their Interaction with Large-Scale Conditions

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 700-716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian D. Lloyd ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Standard Deviations ◽  
Frequency Changes

Abstract The Indian Ocean exhibits strong variability on a number of time scales, including prominent intraseasonal variations in both the atmosphere and ocean. Of particular interest is the south tropical Indian Ocean thermocline ridge, a region located between 12° and 5°S, which exhibits prominent variability in sea surface temperature (SST) due to dominant winds that raise the thermocline and shoal the mixed layer. In this paper, submonthly (less than 30 day) cooling events in the thermocline ridge region are diagnosed with observations and models, and are related to large-scale conditions in the Indo-Pacific region. Observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) satellite were used to identify 16 cooling events in the period 1998–2007, which on average cannot be fully accounted for by air–sea enthalpy fluxes. Analysis of observations and a hierarchy of models, including two coupled global climate models (GFDL CM2.1 and GFDL CM2.4), indicates that ocean dynamical changes are important to the cooling events. For extreme cooling events (above 2.5 standard deviations), air–sea enthalpy fluxes account for approximately 50% of the SST signature, and oceanic processes cannot in general be neglected. For weaker cooling events (1.5–2.5 standard deviations), air–sea enthalpy fluxes account for a larger fraction of the SST signature. Furthermore, it is found that cooling events are preconditioned by large-scale, low-frequency changes in the coupled ocean–atmosphere system. When the thermocline is unusually shallow in the thermocline ridge region, cooling events are more likely to occur and are stronger; these large-scale conditions are more (less) likely during La Niña (El Niño/Indian Ocean dipole) events. Strong cooling events are associated with changes in atmospheric convection, which resemble the Madden–Julian oscillation, in both observations and the models.

Distinct Patterns of Cloud Changes Associated with Decadal Variability and Their Contribution to Observed Cloud Cover Trends

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (21) ◽  
pp. 7281-7301
Author(s):  
Yong-Jhih Chen ◽  
Yen-Ting Hwang ◽  
Mark D. Zelinka ◽  
Chen Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Low Cloud ◽  
Low Cloud Cover

Abstract With the goal of understanding the relative roles of anthropogenic and natural factors in driving observed cloud trends, this study investigates cloud changes associated with decadal variability including the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). In the preindustrial simulations of CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs), the spatial patterns and the vertical structures of the PDO-related cloud cover changes in the Pacific are consistent among models. Meanwhile, the models show consistent AMO impacts on high cloud cover in the tropical Atlantic, subtropical eastern Pacific, and equatorial central Pacific, and on low cloud cover in the North Atlantic and subtropical northeast Pacific. The cloud cover changes associated with the PDO and the AMO can be understood via the relationships between large-scale meteorological parameters and clouds on interannual time scales. When compared to the satellite records during the period of 1983–2009, the patterns of total and low cloud cover trends associated with decadal variability are significantly correlated with patterns of cloud cover trends in ISCCP observations. On the other hand, the pattern of the estimated greenhouse gas (GHG)-forced trends of total cloud cover differs from that related to decadal variability, and may explain the positive trends in the subtropical southeast Pacific, negative trends in the midlatitudes, and positive trends poleward of 50°N/S. In most models, the magnitude of the estimated decadal variability contribution to the observed cloud cover trends is larger than that contributed by GHG, suggesting the observed cloud cover trends are more closely related to decadal variability than to GHG-induced warming.

Intraseasonal-to-Interannual Variability of South Indian Ocean Sea Level and Thermocline: Remote versus Local Forcing

2012 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 602-627 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurie L. Trenary ◽  
Weiqing Han
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Ekman Pumping ◽  
Remote Forcing ◽  
South Indian ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Thermocline Variability

Abstract The relative importance of local versus remote forcing on intraseasonal-to-interannual sea level and thermocline variability of the tropical south Indian Ocean (SIO) is systematically examined by performing a suite of controlled experiments using an ocean general circulation model and a linear ocean model. Particular emphasis is placed on the thermocline ridge of the Indian Ocean (TRIO; 5°–12°S, 50°–80°E). On interannual and seasonal time scales, sea level and thermocline variability within the TRIO region is primarily forced by winds over the Indian Ocean. Interannual variability is largely caused by westward propagating Rossby waves forced by Ekman pumping velocities east of the region. Seasonally, thermocline variability over the TRIO region is induced by a combination of local Ekman pumping and Rossby waves generated by winds from the east. Adjustment of the tropical SIO at both time scales generally follows linear theory and is captured by the first two baroclinic modes. Remote forcing from the Pacific via the oceanic bridge has significant influence on seasonal and interannual thermocline variability in the east basin of the SIO and weak impact on the TRIO region. On intraseasonal time scales, strong sea level and thermocline variability is found in the southeast tropical Indian Ocean, and it primarily arises from oceanic instabilities. In the TRIO region, intraseasonal sea level is relatively weak and results from Indian Ocean wind forcing. Forcing over the Pacific is the major cause for interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport, whereas forcing over the Indian Ocean plays a larger role in determining seasonal and intraseasonal ITF variability.

Complex networks approach for detecting tropical basin interactions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Belen Rodríguez de Fonseca ◽  
Veronica Martín-Gómez ◽  
Jose María Aliganga
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Equatorial Atlantic ◽  
Tropical Oceans ◽  
Collective Interaction ◽  
Tropical North Atlantic ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

<p>Interaction between the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins is increasingly recognized as a key factor in understanding climate variability on interannual to decadal timescales. Most of the studies deal with the connection between pair of basins and less attention has been paid to analyze the degree of collective interaction among the three tropical oceans and its variability along time.In this study, we consider a complex network perspective to analyze the collective connectivity among the three tropical basins. To do so, we first construct a climate network considering as network’ nodes the indices that represent the variability of the SST over the tropical Pacific, the tropical north Atlantic, the equatorial Atlantic and the tropical Indian Ocean. Then, we focus on detecting periods of maximum degree of collective connectivity (synchronization periods) using the mean network distance definition.Results show that the degree of collective connectivity among the three tropical oceans present a large muti-decadal variability and that during the observed period there were two synchronization periods: one developed over the period (1900-1935) and the other from 1975 to present. A period center in the 1950’s is characterized by being the three basins uncoupled .Using this information, an analysis of background conditions in the ocean and the atmosphere has been conducted in order to elucidate causes for this change in connectivity.</p>

The Fingerprint of Indian Ocean Rain and River Water in Salinity and Circulation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vinu Valsala
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Quasi Equilibrium ◽  
Tracer Transport ◽  
Tropical Ocean ◽  
Cumulative Impact ◽  
Circulation Anomalies

Abstract Per unit area of the tropical Indian Ocean receives the world’s largest tropical ocean rain and river runoff (RRW). The 3-dimensional spreading of RRW entering the tropical Indian Ocean and associated salinity and circulation anomalies are explored for 60 years using ocean reanalysis data tailored to a tracer transport model. Over 60 years, the cumulative impact of RRW entering the tropical Indian Ocean is to freshen the Indian Ocean basin as large as 2-0.1 p.s.u from the surface to 500m. The RRW has propagated to a vast extent of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans via general circulation pathways. A quasi-equilibrium model of accumulation of RRW over the tropical Indian Ocean suggests that it induces clockwise geostrophic currents from the Bay of Bengal to the Arabian Sea over 0-500m depths, a net inter-basin transport tendency of 0.8±0.14 Sv year-1. The study implies that coupled climate models with apparent precipitation biases may miscalculate such salinity and circulation anomalies due to RRW and aggravating biases in simulated climate dynamics.

scholarly journals A Climatological Assessment of Intense Extratropical Cyclones from the Potential Vorticity Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (8) ◽  
pp. 2369-2380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Seiler
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Relative Frequency ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Relative Vorticity ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Stratospheric Intrusion ◽  
The Pacific

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are known to intensify due to three vertically interacting positive potential vorticity perturbations that are associated with potential temperature anomalies close to the surface (θB), condensational heating in the lower-level atmosphere (qsat), and stratospheric intrusion in the upper-level atmosphere (qtr). This study presents the first climatological assessment of how much each of these three mechanisms contributes to the intensity of extreme ETCs. Using relative vorticity at 850 hPa as a measure of ETC intensity, results show that in about half of all cases the largest contributions during maximum ETC intensity are associated with qsat (53% of all ETCs), followed by qtr (36%) and θB (11%). The relative frequency of storms that are dominated by qsat is higher 1) during warmer months (61% of all ETCs during warmer months) compared to colder months (50%) and 2) in the Pacific (56% of all ETCs in the Pacific) compared to the Atlantic (46%). The relative frequency of ETCs that are dominated by θB is larger 1) during colder months (13%) compared to warmer months (3%), 2) in the Atlantic (15%) compared to the Pacific (8%), and 3) in western (11%–20%) compared to eastern ocean basins (4%–9%). These findings are based on piecewise potential vorticity inversion conducted for intense ETCs that occurred from 1980 to 2016 in the Northern Hemisphere (3273 events; top 7%). The results may serve as a baseline for evaluating ETC biases and uncertainties in global climate models.

scholarly journals Realism of the Indian Ocean Dipole in CMIP5 Models: The Implications for Climate Projections

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (17) ◽  
pp. 6649-6659 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evan Weller ◽  
Wenju Cai
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract An assessment of how well climate models simulate the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is undertaken using 20 coupled models that have partaken in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Compared with models in phase 3 (CMIP3), no substantial improvement is evident in the simulation of the IOD pattern and/or amplitude during austral spring [September–November (SON)]. The majority of models in CMIP5 generate a larger variance of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Sumatra–Java upwelling region and an IOD amplitude that is far greater than is observed. Although the relationship between precipitation and tropical Indian Ocean SSTs is well simulated, future projections of SON rainfall changes over IOD-influenced regions are intrinsically linked to the IOD amplitude and its rainfall teleconnection in the model present-day climate. The diversity of the simulated IOD amplitudes in models in CMIP5 (and CMIP3), which tend to be overly large, results in a wide range of future modeled SON rainfall trends over IOD-influenced regions. The results herein highlight the importance of realistically simulating the present-day IOD properties and suggest that caution should be exercised in interpreting climate projections in the IOD-affected regions.

Seasonal variation in the long-term warming trend in water temperature off the Western Australian coast

2009 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 129 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Caputi ◽  
S. de Lestang ◽  
M. Feng ◽  
A. Pearce
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Temperature Cycle ◽  
Rock Lobster ◽  
Leeuwin Current ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Previous studies have demonstrated that one area of greatest increase in surface sea temperatures (SST) (0.02°C per year) in the Indian Ocean over the last 50 years occurs off the lower west coast of Australia, an area dominated by the Leeuwin Current. The present paper examines water temperature trends at several coastal sites since the early 1970s: two rock lobster puerulus monitoring sites in shallow water (<5 m); four sites from a monitoring program onboard rock lobster vessels that provide bottom water temperature (<36 m); and an environmental monitoring site at Rottnest (0–50 m depth). Two global SST datasets are also examined. These data show that there was a strong seasonal variation in the historic increases in temperature off the lower west coast of Australia, with most of the increases (0.02–0.035°C per year) only focussed on 4–6 months over the austral autumn–winter with little or no increase (<0.01°C per year) apparent in the austral spring–summer period. These increases are also apparent after taking into account the interannual variation in the strength of the Leeuwin Current. The warming trend results in a change to the seasonal temperature cycle over the decades, with a delay in the peak in the temperature cycle during autumn between the 1950s and 2000s of ~10–20 days. A delay in the timing of the minimum temperature is also apparent at Rottnest from August–September to October. This seasonal variation in water temperature increases and its effect on the annual temperature cycle should be examined in climate models because it provides the potential to better understand the specific processes through which climate change and global warming are affecting this region of the Indian Ocean. It also provides an opportunity to further test the climate models to see whether this aspect is predicted in the future projections of how increases will be manifest. Any seasonal variation in water temperature increase has important implications for fisheries and the marine ecosystem because it may affect many aspects of the annual life cycle such as timing of growth, moulting, mating, spawning and recruitment, which have to be taken into account in the stock assessment and management of fisheries.

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