scholarly journals Why Has the Relationship between Indian and Pacific Ocean Decadal Variability Changed in Recent Decades?

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (6) ◽  
pp. 1971-1983 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Dong ◽  
Michael J. McPhaden
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Negative Phase ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
Indian Ocean Basin Mode ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Both the Indian and Pacific Oceans exhibit prominent decadal time scale variations in sea surface temperature (SST), linked dynamically via atmospheric and oceanic processes. However, the relationship between SST in these two basins underwent a dramatic transformation beginning around 1985. Prior to that, SST variations associated with the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOB) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) were positively correlated, whereas afterward they were much less clearly synchronized. Evidence is presented from both observations and coupled state-of-the-art climate models that enhanced external forcing, particularly from increased anthropogenic greenhouse gases, was the principal cause of this changed relationship. Using coupled climate model experiments, it is shown that without external forcing, the evolution of the IOB would be strongly forced by variations in the IPO. However, with strong external forcing, the dynamical linkage between the IOB and the IPO weakens so that the negative phase IPO after 2000 is unable to force a negative phase IOB-induced cooling of the Indian Ocean. This changed relationship in the IOB and IPO led to unique SST patterns in the Indo-Pacific region after 2000, which favored exceptionally strong easterly trade winds over the tropical Pacific Ocean and a pronounced global warming hiatus in the first decade of the twenty-first century.

scholarly journals The Effects of External Forcing and Internal Variability on the Formation of Interhemispheric Sea Surface Temperature Gradient Trends in the Indian Ocean

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (22) ◽  
pp. 9077-9095 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Dong ◽  
Michael J. McPhaden
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract A striking trend of the Indian Ocean interhemispheric gradient in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) developed during the recent global warming hiatus. The contributions of external forcing and internal variability to this trend are examined in forced climate model experiments. Results indicate that the observed negative trend was strong by historical standards and most likely due to internal variability rather than to external forcing. Anthropogenic aerosol forcing favors negative gradient trends, but its effects are countered by greenhouse gas forcing, and both are weak relative to internal variability. The observed interhemispheric gradient trend occurred in parallel with a negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), a linkage that is also found in climate models. However, the physical mechanisms responsible for these gradient trends in models differ from those in ocean reanalysis products. In particular, oceanic processes via an increased Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport into the Indian Ocean forced by stronger Pacific trade winds are the principal cause of the observed negative SST gradient trend during 2000–13. In contrast, atmospheric processes via changing surface wind stress over the southern Indian Ocean remotely forced by the IPO appear to play a dominant role in changing the interhemispheric SST gradients in climate models. The models underestimate the magnitude of the IPO and produce changes in the ITF that are too weak owing to their coarse spatial resolution. These model deficiencies may account for the differences between the simulations and observations.

scholarly journals Unraveling Causes for the Changing Behavior of the Tropical Indian Ocean in the Past Few Decades

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 2377-2388 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Weiqing Han ◽  
Frank Sienz
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
The Pacific

Observations show that decadal (10–20 yr) to interdecadal (>20 yr) variability of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) closely follows that of the Pacific until the 1960s. Since then, the TIO SST exhibits a persistent warming trend, whereas the Pacific SST shows large-amplitude fluctuations associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), and the decadal variability of the TIO SST is out of phase with that of the Pacific after around 1980. Here causes for the changing behavior of the TIO SST are explored, by analyzing multiple observational datasets and the recently available large-ensemble simulations from two climate models. It is found that on interdecadal time scales, the persistent TIO warming trend is caused by emergence of anthropogenic warming overcoming internal variability, while the time of emergence occurs much later in the Pacific. On decadal time scales, two major tropical volcanic eruptions occurred in the 1980s and 1990s causing decadal SST cooling over the TIO during which the IPO was in warm phase, yielding the out-of-phase relation. The more evident fingerprints of external forcing in the TIO compared to the Pacific result from the much weaker TIO internal decadal–interdecadal variability, making the TIO prone to the external forcing. These results imply that the ongoing warming and natural external forcing may make the Indian Ocean more active, playing an increasingly important role in affecting regional and global climate.

Interdecadal Strengthening in the Independent Relationship Between the East Asian Summer Monsoon and the Indian Ocean Basin Mode around the Early 1990s

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-42
Author(s):  
KUI LIU ◽  
LIAN-TONG ZHOU ◽  
ZHIBIAO WANG ◽  
YONG LIU ◽  
XIAOXUE YIN
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Ocean Basin ◽  
Indian Ocean Basin Mode ◽  
Basin Mode ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThis study conducts correlation and regression analyses of the JRA-55 reanalysis data and observational rainfall datasets from China’s National Climate Center. The analyses reveal that interdecadal enhancement in the relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the Indian Ocean Basin mode (IOBM) after the early 1990s, and the diminished correlation between the EASM and the Niño-3 index. The analyses also reveal that the relationship between EASM-related rainfall/circulation with IOBM also experienced an interdecadal shift at the same time. During the first epoch (1977–1989), EASM-related rainfall was correlated significantly with the Niño-3 index, and accompanied by a Pacific–Japan-like anomaly pattern of horizontal winds. In a subsequent epoch (1994–2014), EASM-related rainfall was correlated significantly with IOBM, and accompanied by a meridional dipole pattern in the horizontal winds. After the 1990s, IOBM exerted influence on EASM through land–sea thermal contrast, and the critical land area was the region 33°–47°N, 110°–140°E. The interdecadal strengthening in the EASM–IOBM linkage around the early 1990s may be attributable to a faster rate of decay of El Niño after the 1990s.

scholarly journals Multi-Decadal Trend and Decadal Variability of the Regional Sea Level over the Indian Ocean since the 1960s: Roles of Climate Modes and External Forcing

Climate ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weiqing Han ◽  
Detlef Stammer ◽  
Gerald Meehl ◽  
Aixue Hu ◽  
Frank Sienz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
Climate Modes ◽  
Decadal Trend ◽  
Regional Sea Level ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The 1960S

scholarly journals On Tanzania’s Precipitation Climatology, Variability, and Future Projection

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 34
Author(s):  
Krishna Borhara ◽  
Binod Pokharel ◽  
Brennan Bean ◽  
Liping Deng ◽  
S.-Y. Simon Wang
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Rainy Season ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Precipitation Trend ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Increasing Precipitation

We investigate historical and projected precipitation in Tanzania using observational and climate model data. Precipitation in Tanzania is highly variable in both space and time due to topographical variations, coastal influences, and the presence of lakes. Annual and seasonal precipitation trend analyses from 1961 to 2016 show maximum rainfall decline in Tanzania during the long rainy season in the fall (March–May), and an increasing precipitation trend in northwestern Tanzania during the short rainy season in the spring (September–November). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis applied to Tanzania’s precipitation patterns shows a stronger correlation with warmer temperatures in the western Indian Ocean than with the eastern-central Pacific Ocean. Years with decreasing precipitation in Tanzania appear to correspond with increasing sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Indian Ocean, suggesting that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may have a greater effect on rainfall variability in Tanzania than the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) does. Overall, the climate model ensemble projects increasing precipitation trend in Tanzania that is opposite with the historical decrease in precipitation. This observed drying trend also contradicts a slightly increasing precipitation trend from climate models for the same historical time period, reflecting challenges faced by modern climate models in representing Tanzania’s precipitation.

scholarly journals Indian Ocean impact on ENSO evolution 2014–2016 in a set of seasonal forecasting experiments

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Mayer ◽  
Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Decadal Variations ◽  
The Indian Ocean

AbstractThis study investigates the influence of the anomalously warm Indian Ocean state on the unprecedentedly weak Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and the unexpected evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during 2014–2016. It uses 25-month-long coupled twin forecast experiments with modified Indian Ocean initial conditions sampling observed decadal variations. An unperturbed experiment initialized in Feb 2014 forecasts moderately warm ENSO conditions in year 1 and year 2 and an anomalously weak ITF throughout, which acts to keep tropical Pacific ocean heat content (OHC) anomalously high. Changing only the Indian Ocean to cooler 1997 conditions substantially alters the 2-year forecast of Tropical Pacific conditions. Differences include (i) increased probability of strong El Niño in 2014 and La Niña in 2015, (ii) significantly increased ITF transports and (iii), as a consequence, stronger Pacific ocean heat divergence and thus a reduction of Pacific OHC over the two years. The Indian Ocean’s impact in year 1 is via the atmospheric bridge arising from altered Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Effects of altered ITF and associated ocean heat divergence (oceanic tunnel) become apparent by year 2, including modified ENSO probabilities and Tropical Pacific OHC. A mirrored twin experiment starting from unperturbed 1997 conditions and several sensitivity experiments corroborate these findings. This work demonstrates the importance of the Indian Ocean’s decadal variations on ENSO and highlights the previously underappreciated role of the oceanic tunnel. Results also indicate that, given the physical links between year-to-year ENSO variations, 2-year-long forecasts can provide additional guidance for interpretation of forecasted year-1 ENSO probabilities.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Uncertainty Induced by the Virtual Salt Flux Assumption in Climate Simulations and Future Projections

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianjun Yin ◽  
Ronald J. Stouffer ◽  
Michael J. Spelman ◽  
Stephen M. Griffies
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Salt Flux ◽  
Freshwater Flux ◽  
Unexpected Result ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Near Term

Abstract The unphysical virtual salt flux (VSF) formulation widely used in the ocean component of climate models has the potential to cause systematic and significant biases in modeling the climate system and projecting its future evolution. Here a freshwater flux (FWF) and a virtual salt flux version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1) are used to evaluate and quantify the uncertainties induced by the VSF formulation. Both unforced and forced runs with the two model versions are performed and compared in detail. It is found that the differences between the two versions are generally small or statistically insignificant in the unforced control runs and in the runs with a small external forcing. In response to a large external forcing, however, some biases in the VSF version become significant, especially the responses of regional salinity and global sea level. However, many fundamental aspects of the responses differ only quantitatively between the two versions. An unexpected result is the distinctly different ENSO responses. Under a strong external freshwater forcing, the great enhancement of the ENSO variability simulated by the FWF version does not occur in the VSF version and is caused by the overexpansion of the top model layer. In summary, the principle assumption behind using virtual salt flux is not seriously violated and the VSF model has the ability to simulate the current climate and project near-term climate evolution. For some special studies such as a large hosing experiment, however, both the VSF formulation and the use of the FWF in the geopotential coordinate ocean model could have some deficiencies and one should be cautious to avoid them.

scholarly journals Spatial temporal analysis for potential wave energy resources in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 893 (1) ◽  
pp. 012050
Author(s):  
M N Habibie ◽  
M A Marfai ◽  
H Harsa ◽  
U A Linarka
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Power Density ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Energy Resources ◽  
Wave Power ◽  
Potential Wave ◽  
Hourly Data ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Variability Index

Abstract Future energy becomes a concern all over the country. The fossil energy resources are decreasing now, and the exploitation these resources leave behind environmental problems. It was increasing the gas emission of CO2 and affected global warming. Renewable and environmentally friendly energy resource is the right choice to solve the problem. Wave power is one of the marine resources that have an advantage in hight density and continuity. This research aims to investigate the spatial-temporal distribution of wave power potency. This study location between 90°E – 150°E; 15°N – 15°S. We used a hindcast data simulation of WAVEWATCH-III with 0.125° (~14 km) spatial resolution and six-hourly data for 25 years (1991-2015). We determine the potential wave power resources by considering the wave flux, Presence of Exceedance (PE), Coefficient of Variation (Cv), Monthly Variability Index (MV), and Seasonal Variability Index (SV). The result shows that in the open sea, such as the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean, contains higher wave power density. The level of stability shows that this area is more stable than the inner sea. The power density changes periodically conducted with the monsoonal cycle. The highest energy flux in the Indian Ocean achieved when Australian monsoon and lowest when Asian monsoon, whereas in the Pacific Ocean, the peak of power density reaches when Asian monsoon onset and the lowest in June-July-August. The most stable level coherent with the highest power density, and the lowest level is in the transition period. Based on this analysis, the most potential areas for wave power development are in Enggano, Lampung, Banten, West Java, Central Java, DIY, East Java until Bali.

Understanding the Weakening Relationship of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Indian Ocean Basin Mode During Boreal Winter

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin-Sil Hong ◽  
Sang-Wook Yeh ◽  
Young-Min Yang ◽  
Young-Kwon Lim ◽  
Kyu-Myong Kim
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ocean Basin ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Indian Ocean Basin Mode ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Basin Mode ◽  
Relationship Of

Abstract While it is known that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) leads the Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) with the same phase via the atmospheric bridge, we found that the relationship of PDO-IOBM during boreal winter is not stationary. Here, we investigated the PDO-IOBM relationship changes on low-frequency timescales by analyzing the observations, a long-term simulation of climate model with its large ensembles as well as the pacemaker experiments. A long-term simulation of climate model with its large ensemble simulations indicated that the non-stationary relationship of PDO-IOBM is intrinsic in a climate system and it could be at least partly due to internal climate variability. In details, we compared the PDO structures during the entire period with those during the period when the PDO-IOBM relationship was weak (i.e., 1976-2006). We found that the structures of sea surface temperature (SST) as well as its associated tropical Pacific convective forcing during the negative phase of PDO for 1976-2006 are far away from the typical structures of the negative PDO phase during the entire period, which were responsible for the weakening relationship of the PDO-IOBM in the observation. The results of the two pacemaker experiments support that a non-stationary relationship of PDO-IOBM is primarily due to the SST forcing in the Pacific.

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